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On the 20th you’re still going to see the same amount of people wearing masks and following social distancing. There isnt going to be be a sudden overnight change in behaviour.
I wish it were true, but I don't see it.
It seems, like everything else in the world at the moment, it's an completely binary thing, half of people will continue to wear masks and SD, and why not, it's not hard and we're well used to it by now, 50% will throw them away, burn them even, will be joining the scrum at the bar on the 19th.
More than that, I don't actually believe a single soul in the UK has never broken a Covid rule, ever, IME People can be incredibly vocal about restrictions that don't effect them personally, but at the same time completely ignore the ones that do.
For example, come Thursdays it's likely Grant Shapps will say something like "We still advise people not to visit amber counties, but those who do who are fully vaccinated can do so, without quarantine" and 15 mins later a good proportion of STWers, be that post 19th Maskers or not, will be trying to book, flights, ferries and the tunnel to get to the Alps, because wearing a mask in the shop or pub suits them, but not going on Holiday doesn't.
@Nobeerinthefridge Innerleithen for 3 nights, so hopefully Golfie, Glentress, Inners and a look round Yair. Then down to Keswick for 3 nights, hoping for some George pie 🙂
FWIW mask compliance is still 100% everywhere I’ve been.
This seems to be very dependant on location. Living in Otley compliance is 99%, but I work in Bradford and when I visit the local shops close to work I'm usually the only person wearing one. In the supermarkets it's at roughly 80%. Once it's not legally mandated I'll stop.
Tracking is still enforced every pub/cafe I’ve been to as well.
You need to sign in with the app. There's no need to have it turned on or pay any attention to it so it's a complete waste of time.
Local supermarkets still have traffic light systems to control numbers, though folk are about less careful about distancing once inside.
That's gone but I don't shop at busy times
Gah! Seems like I’m an early adopter for the self-isolation summer fun!! 7 days apparently, so no pub for the football tonight.
RM.
Does anybody know where to get testing data by age group ?
I am looking to understand positivity by age group.
Found it.
what do you mean, number of positive tests? I'm not sure that is completely helpful because the absolute number of tests of school age kids will be higher, but the ONS data has as a %
Section 4
It's coming home
It's coming home
It's coming
Covid's coming home
Well done that man...
I live in Brighouse where mask wearing is still pretty good. The closer I get to Bradford the worse it gets, so when you talk of petri dishes and experiments maybe Bradford is already doing that for us?
It’s coming home
It’s coming home
It’s coming
Covid’s coming home
It’s hard to look past Wembley, the subsequent Tube journeys, and multiple rammed city’s centre and other bars full of unmasked shouting pissed people being anything other the Covid soup.
Watching Euros may be behind rise in infections in men
REACT study also suggests approx 6 day doubling now. We should hit the 100,000 cases a day mark well before August. It's possible we will see a drop later this month in England and Wales because a lot of the testing is being driven by schools, and I'm sure the public are less bothered about testing themselves, even when they have symptoms, let alone as a matter of course. But the underlying level of infections is still clearly rising exponentially at the moment.
The full current relationship between infections and hospitalisations will also be getting clearer by then.
hospitals beginning to overflow and cancel elective surgeries.
Storms approaching.
Interesting. I did my usual 7am trip to Morrison’s in Malvern this morning. I hadn’t been in three weeks because of being away on holiday. Unlike any previous visit in the past year or so, a good 1/4 of people in the store were not wearing masks, not even round their necks. They were all Morrison’s employees either shelf stacking or picking for home delivery. Every customer ( not many at that time of day) I saw had a mask on.
Wasn’t really a problem as I could avoid them reasonably easily. I guess that as the store had only just officially opened they might be going to put them on later?
We're all hanging our hopes massively on the vaccine, and are continuously told the double jabbed are very unlikely to get it. But a bbc article today quoted imperial college numbers that the fully vaccinted are only 1/3 as likey to be Infected, and efficiency is 72%, far lower than what I've seen quoted before
And just see that phizer is now quoted as only 62% effective against the delta variant.
I’m sure the public are less bothered about testing themselves
They'll be even less bothered if the tests stop being free, and there is the possible outcome of having to stay off work with no support whatsoever. I still don't think we'll get the measure of the summer 'till the schools have been open for a few weeks in September. August will be flying blind and hoping. Unless you're waiting for hospital treatment of course, then you'll likely see the effect much sooner, with more appointments delayed.
Interesting. I did my usual 7am trip to Morrison’s in Malvern this morning. I hadn’t been in three weeks because of being away on holiday. Unlike any previous visit in the past year or so, a good 1/4 of people in the store were not wearing masks, not even round their necks.
Been like that for months in my local Morissons. I've stopped shopping there.
are continuously told the double jabbed are very unlikely to get it.
That's not what I've been reading. We are being told that the effects of getting it are much reduced once fully vaccinated though.
Had a call this morning with my friend in Pune, India. They're just coming out of lockdown, curfew lifted and shops but not malls open.
Maharashtra (state with Pune in) 7 day case rate is 8,815 in 114 million.
UK 7 day case rate is 27,414 in 67 million.
He wished me good luck.
That’s not what I’ve been reading. We are being told that the effects of getting it are much reduced once fully vaccinated though.
It would appear that your chances of getting are reduced as is severity. Immunity is not 100%. At all. You’re less likely to be hospitalised & less likely to die. You can though, still get it.
Just back from the local One Stop and none of the staff were wearing masks, I was the only one out of 4 customers with one on too.
They’ll be even less bothered if the tests stop being free, and there is the possible outcome of having to stay off work with no support whatsoever. I still don’t think we’ll get the measure of the summer ’till the schools have been open for a few weeks in September. August will be flying blind and hoping. Unless you’re waiting for hospital treatment of course, then you’ll likely see the effect much sooner, with more appointments delayed.
The issue is that people will point at the lower positive test numbers saying it's going away ignoring the fact that fewer tests = fewer cases. I would say the government has factored this in to make them look good over the summer but that would mean admitting that they actually have a clue about what is going on!
This summer is going to be a case of looking after yourself and do what you can to protect your loved ones, the government don't care this time.
Maharashtra (state with Pune in) 7 day case rate is 8,815 in 114 million.
UK 7 day case rate is 27,414 in 67 million.
He wished me good luck.
What's their testing rate?
That’s not what I’ve been reading. We are being told that the effects of getting it are much reduced once fully vaccinated though.
That as well. But I've definitely read numerous times that it's unlikely the double vaccinated will get it. They were after all quoting 90 % protection from infection a few weeks ago. Obviously with the risen in cases alot of double jabbed folks would still get it even at 90%, so it's not great it's actually significantly less than that.
Both types of vaccine over 90% effective against hospitalisation from Delta according to PHE on 14th June. Is there new data?
Both types of vaccine over 90% effective against hospitalisation from Delta according to PHE.
Yeah, but @tpbikers point is that folk will still be infected. As a result, they will be advised to isolate (and possible their close contacts will too). That will have significant knock-on affects, especially in hospitality and in health care, where some hospitals are already struggling to cope with "normal" demand.
And India is less than 4% vaccinated.
Letter from Secondary school; PHE have revised advise and any pupils advised to self isolate due to close contact must now have a PCR test, with a concern of "variants of interest" in mind.
This tells my uneducated mind that the "let it rip strategy" is causing that exact concern... a breeding ground for the English Football Supporters variant*
*Sorry for that bit of politics.
Both types of vaccine over 90% effective against hospitalisation from Delta according to PHE on 14th June. Is there new data?
Apparently so, but the data is yet to be peer reviewed.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.06.23.21259327v1
Both types of vaccine over 90% effective against hospitalisation from Delta according to PHE on 14th June
That's still good news. Hospitals need that to be the case. But what about all the people looking forward to being ill for a long time without being admitted? Just so that Mr Angry and can stand next to them without wearing a mask in the queue to buy their groceries this summer.
We need to get to the point where the vaccines are acting as a break on infections before next term. We could get there. If we could be bothered.
I would say the government has factored this in to make them look good over the summer...
So would I.
...but that would mean admitting that they actually have a clue about what is going on!
Well, I'd suggest they are far better at managing how people see or care about what's happening than they at managing what's actually happening.
Yeah, but @tpbikers point is that folk will still be infected. As a result, they will be advised to isolate (and possible their close contacts will too). That will have significant knock-on affects, especially in hospitality and in health care, where some hospitals are already struggling to cope with “normal” demand
Don't dispute that but further up tpb referenced bbc quoting 72% and 62% efficacy. I 'think' these are old numbers.
Does anybody know where to get testing data by age group ?
The data is available for cases/vaccinations/deaths broken down by age groups:
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases?areaType=nation&areaName=England
Its only for England, but doubt its materially different from the other nations.
Oh - just seen mrlebowski's post. Ta!
But I’ve definitely read numerous times that it’s unlikely the double vaccinated will get it
I'm not sure I've read that from a scientific or even government source. There's been suggestions or theories that vaccination may reduce the risk of catching it, but not sure anything is definite with Delta. And definitely not read anything saying you were unlikely to catch it.
As I understand it the point of the vaccine was to reduce the severity of infection, not prevent it.
They do both. The trials were concerned with the first (and safety), plenty of data to suggest the second also happens. Also that they reduce the chance of passing the virus on if you do catch it.
The issue is that people will point at the lower positive test numbers saying it’s going away ignoring the fact that fewer tests = fewer cases.
Well, fewer tests in August is now a given. Not just because of the break in education.
So, new travel rules issued according to the BBC.
Any double vaccinated super spreaders and their kids can let it rip when they return - because the first thing you do when you get home usually is hug all the people that you've missed.....
(Though with UK rates, the people you've missed may be the ones spreading it to you?)
Apologies if I missed it upthread, but what’s the thinking behind 8 week 2nd jab of The A-Z vaccine? They’ve booked Mrs P in tomorrow 8 weeks after her first (I’m not sure it’s been that long, need to check) while mine was 12 weeks 🧐
Get it. Now. Slightly lower protection than waiting for 12 weeks, but, unless you have your own private island, she wants that second jab ASAP.
For those asking “if not now, when”, or “what are we waiting for”… as regards keeping mask wearing, test/track/isolate, and a few social distancing measures for a little bit longer… here you go…
That Sky News presenter really didn't have a clue.
Doesn't sound like Scotland are going to join the "let it rip" Boris approach, in honour of Sweden.
That Sky News presenter really didn’t have a clue.
Or she's just asking the exact same questions that many people are asking, giving the interviewee a chance to challenge those points and inform people about the possible path through the current situation we find ourselves in. Very good and clear answers, anyway. Recommended viewing.
For those asking “if not now, when”, or “what are we waiting for”… as regards keeping mask wearing, test/track/isolate, and a few social distancing measures for a little bit longer… here you go…
Dr Deepti Gurdasani organised a press conference this morning on this wrt. the letter published in The Lancet. Haven't got through it all yet, but covers many of the concerns raised by folks on here.
On Citizens TV's YouTube channel.
Kelvin - the presenter was actively challenging the statements of the professor, using the language of the government. If news media challenged government BS in the same way I'd have no issue. It seemed she had the hump to be told it wasn't all over, whereas she thought it was her right to have cake & eat it.
Hats off to Dr Gurdasani for giving it to us straight.
I'd love to see people like her, Whitty and JVT being let loose in press conferences explaining things for the hard of thinking.
the presenter was actively challenging the statements of the professor, using the language of the government. If news media challenged government BS in the same way I’d have no issue
I think she should be challenging her. I agree she should be challenging members of the government and their outriders in the same fashion.
By the way, in case I wasn’t clear, I think Gurdasani is absolutely spot on, and the government are abdicating their responsibility.
The letter in the Lancet…
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)01589-0/fulltext
but covers many of the concerns raised by folks on here.
I agree I found it very useful reflected by the Lancet article. Trying to be positive, Boris said the ultimate decision will not be until the 12th, so given past history, could last weeks conference have been the "test"?
Would they now consider the concerns such as this being raised, examine them and have a re-think? I can very much see Boris hiding in his Fridge now asking "So, er um er Chris and er um Patrick, er um, oh er what are you thoughts on this er um oh er um Freedom date? Oh er um er oh what's that Cary? Crack on we need B&Q open? Righto!"
Politically its a nightmare to U Turn or delay again, but we are dealing with the apparent Untouchables here, and Boris appears to be treading a line between a Churchill or Goebells style of application of Freedom day.
It's an interesting levelling off of numbers in scotland. Is that the way this wave is going to go, have we reached peak? Or just a lull?
It’s an interesting levelling off of numbers in scotland. Is that they way this wave is going to go, have we reached peak? Or just a lull?
reduction in testing as scottish schools have broken up?
It’s an interesting levelling off of numbers in scotland. Is that they way this wave is going to go, have we reached peak? Or just a lull?
Your peak might be a couple of weeks ahead of ours as we got past the group stage.....😉
It’s an interesting levelling off of numbers in scotland. Is that the way this wave is going to go, have we reached peak? Or just a lull?
Going by what Leitch said last week, it may be that we've had the fast spread through folks who hadn't been exposed to the virus before, and now the slow down is because of that? here's hoping.
reduction in testing as scottish schools have broken up?
Testing levels haven't dropped off since schools broke up.
Both types of vaccine over 90% effective against hospitalisation from Delta according to PHE on 14th June. Is there new data?
hmmm that other 10% could still be a lot of people hammering the NHS if we are letting it rip.
Testing levels haven’t dropped off since schools broke up.
Testing of school age kids has dropped off in Scotland (as you would expect)... and so has positive cases in that age group (no test, no find).
Whatever, actuals cases, rather than found cases, should now be dropping off with kids not mixing. And not just for them, but for older people they live with and mix with.
August will end up giving us a false sense of assurance... what happens if we go into the next term starting with high community levels is the point of real concern. What we choose to do from July will limit our options next term. We should be acting to prevent another disturbed academic year. That absolutely should be our priority, we owe it to those who've had two messed up years of education. And we should be offering all the older ones the vaccine ASAP.
Putting people like Dr. Gurdasani on the air, presenting her with these arguments and allowing them to be rebutted so convincingly is challenging Government BS.
I have to say, I've been reasonably impressed with Sky News. Since Brexit and throughout COVID, they've done a decent job of reporting, questioning and fact checking the Government. Far, far better than the BBC, for example.
I agree.
We should be acting to prevent another disturbed academic year. That absolutely should be our priority
I completely agree - unfortunately it will be the kids who will probably pay most for the MPs having a jolly summer recess.
ayjaydoubleyou
Free Member
It’s an interesting levelling off of numbers in scotland. Is that they way this wave is going to go, have we reached peak? Or just a lull?reduction in testing as scottish schools have broken up?
Could be schools mibbe, testing is up though.
tbh I don't think numbers will continue going up, they will level off the question is just where and when eh..
. Far, far better than the BBC, for example.
What boils my urine is that the BBC Reality Check on their website has done a much better job than their TV and radio coverage.
But it's tucked away at the bottom of the news page where no one who needs to read it will look.
Could be schools mibbe, testing is up though.
tbh I don’t think numbers will continue going up, they will level off the question is just where and when eh..
Testing should go down really, my daughter and all her pals had to get PCR tests after being close contacts, none of that will be going on now.
Agree on the next part Joe.
Went up to Paris on the TGV to visit junior. I've never known Paris to be so civil. Mask rules being respected but not only, seats being vacated for people more in need in the Metro, no queueing mobs but proper distanced queues. Sadly I can't see that good behaviour stopping Delta, only slowing it down.
People are socialising again (me included), the notion of bubble has gone. We and the people we met were double vaccinated but too many aren't to stop another wave.
It' all down to vaccination which has picked up again but not enough. we need 2-3 million first jabs a week
and are just short of a million.
If there was any doubt "herd immunity" was now Boris' plan, the Dido "NHS" Covid-19 app's sensitivity is going to be reviewed because of fears thousands will be sent isolation notifications...
God save the queen and her English peasants.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-57772515
I don't they had much choice, many people never downloaded the app in the first place and people that did are getting pinged a lot, when they see others out behaving like it's all over. Many will now delete it. I think it's had it's day, it was important when we were in something approaching a proper lockdown but with effectively free mixing it's point is moot. By removing pretty much all restrictions with the virus still prevent they've accepted there will be community transmission, the app was designed to stop community transmission but it wont have a chance after the 19th, doesn't really now either.
If there was any doubt “herd immunity” was now Boris’ plan
I had a very wobbly day yesterday - other stuff as well as this - ending up in a conversation with a friend after I revealed I was sitting at home with a stress related headache. The end result was he said “look, all we can do now is take individual responsibility to sanitise, wear masks and protect our families as best we can. There’s no point stressing about others and what you can’t control”.
-shrug-
Some sort of "herd" immunity was always the only way out of this. It's just I was hoping more of it could be done via vaccination instead of natural transmission.
Totally get your anxiety kryton57, you are not the only one. The majority of the people I will be around and with in the next couple of months are as cautious as I am, so hoping it will pay off, and I'll be doing my best to avoid other situations. Somehow my daughters school and other groups have remained positive free, hoping that lasts another couple of weeks.
We use Yammer at work for internal social media. Managers are going to have their work cut out supporting any sort of partial return to work looking at some of the antimask comments put on. Looks like a few warnings were issued yesterday when it got a bit heated. I'd like to think that "being a dick on internal social media" could be taken into account on promotion and development opportunities.
Your mate is spot on Kryton, chin up.
We use Yammer at work for internal social media
Nae luck!
The app was always useless anyway IMO - just window dressing. track and trace is so poor that between a useless app and a useless track and trace its doubly useless
NHS track and trace app "sensitivity" to be dialled down...
See all you have to is to stop counting.
The app was always useless anyway IMO – just window dressing. track and trace is so poor
The app was pretty good, IMHO, but only because it was automated and Dido Harding had nothing to do with it. I got a correct notification from the app after sharing a bus with someone who later tested positive for Covid-19 back in December.
Conversely I didn't hear anything after I spent 10 hours locked in a small room with someone who was coughing and spluttering away with Covid-19. If he hadn't called me to say that he had tested positive for Covid and asking if Test and Trace had been in touch, I'd never have known.
my daughter was asked to self isolate yesterday again feom school, so end of the year for her.
there are now only 60 left in school out of 250 in her year. for the last few weeks there's been an increasing feeling that infection levels at school are worse than they've ever been.
All of this before we reach what is set to be a massive peak again and before things are totally relaxed.
poses the question of how the heck they can get through a term without being ravaged by isolations when they start the new term.
I'm not sure what system they can apply, they have been reducing down the numbers of contacts asked to isolate from the full class or form bubble to kids sitting closest or in close social contact but the numbers isolating as still increased massively.
if they do the daily testing of all method surely it will just be so wide spread that the net effect will be the same.
and I’ll be doing my best to avoid other situations
Indeed. Quite nice to hear from work yesterday that we are encouraged to make individual decisions as clients offices open, but if we choose to use Teams / avoid a client office/gathering and they get shirty about it then the Company will back us up. However I think that situation is quite unlikely in my - corporate - industry.
I don’t they had much choice, many people never downloaded the app in the first place and people that did are getting pinged a lot, when they see others out behaving like it’s all over. Many will now delete it.
Turned off bluetooth the day they announced double jabbed people wouldn't have to isolate. Stopped voluntarily scanning the QR codes too, but I will still keep the app and do so if asked by a member of staff.
The App was conceived to try to help get on top of smaller case numbers. When we are getting 100,000 a day in the not-too-distant future, people will be getting pinged non-stop. Like T&T itself, it theoretically serves a useful purpose before the numbers get out of control. From now on, it basically puts large swathes of the population into an on-off lockdown sitting at home watching politicians telling them 'lockdown is over, enjoy your freedom' on the telly.
There is no controlling this now without measures which are unavailable. Even full lockdown wouldn't dent this much, for a variety of reasons.
Cross everything, and hope that the optimistic estimates of the relationship between caseload and hospitalisation haven't been skewed by large-scale testing in schools, and the fact the virus has spent most of the last month mainly circulating in the under 30s.
I don’t they had much choice, many people never downloaded the app in the first place and people that did are getting pinged a lot,
Interesting - I think I only know one person in real life who has had an app notification, and they did go on to develop symptoms and test positive ~48 hrs later - so it seemed to me like it was doing its job.
when they see others out behaving like it’s all over. Many will now delete it. I think it’s had it’s day, it was important when we were in something approaching a proper lockdown but with effectively free mixing it’s point is moot.
Is that not exactly when it SHOULD be more important? When there was very little public mixing going on, there was little opportunity for transmission (lockdown did seem to bring the no's down) and the app had little contact to act on. However, when lots of people are mingling and disease is in circulation there is more chance for you to get it from a "stranger" (if all cases were proper known contacts we wouldn't need an app to tell us - either the other person of T&T could call us).
Of course it may seem less attractive to have the app on - if you are more likely to get a self-isolation "ping" but in an "open" world its more likely you'll be mingling in an unmasked, not socially distanced, indoor context rather than during lockdown when any contact was likely lower risk anyway. The reality is - people are happy with the app if it means they can warn others if they get infected, but don't like the idea that it works the otherway round. I suspect a bigger issue is people will say "I'm double vaccinated, I don't need the app".
Is that not exactly when it SHOULD be more important?
Nope completely the opposite, the app & track and trace were there to try and capture the cases that occurred despite stringent lock down rules. To contain the low numbers of infections. Compare it to a slow leak from a pipe, you might put a bucket (the app) under it to catch the drips, the bucket will be useless if pipe is cut and water is pouring out of it. Turn the water off.
The app on it's own is useless, when wide spread mixing is happening there will be lots of transmission and even more near misses. People will not self isolate on the off chance they have actually caught it from one of the myriad of people they've been in contact with. If you want infection rates down, we need to go back to restrictions and lock downs.
It's done, we're done, the government has got Covid done, cases don't matter anymore and they are gambling on hospital admissions staying controlled, at least that's the underlying message. We're on our own.
I'm done with Coronavirus, after a year and a half of following the rules religiously doing all the isolations when the kids have a case in their bubbles, isolating for 10 days when we came back from France despite the cases been 100 times lower where we staying. We didn't see parents for 16 months.
This week I've had three kids isolating again two for the full 10 days but this time I'm not keeping them locked up. If 65,000 people can go to a football game on a -ve lat flow test, then I can take my kids outside mtbing, running or walking in the countryside after a -ve PCR test plus daily lat flows. I think I'm capable of making an appropriate risk assessment and rather than slavishly following rules that make no longer make sense. In 22 years of schooling between them prior to coronavirus, the kids had missed between them less than 10 days in school but I'm seriously considering not sending them back after this isolation. Currently, the situation in local schools is ridiculous they'll be isolating again at the beginning of the school holidays.
Still very little info or support for immunocompromised or folks with severe long term conditions. All down to us now I guess 🙄
@Stainypants, it's very difficult to argue against any of that, so I won't.
The app on it’s own is useless, when wide spread mixing is happening there will be lots of transmission and even more near misses. People will not self isolate on the off chance they have actually caught it from one of the myriad of people they’ve been in contact with. If you want infection rates down, we need to go back to restrictions and lock downs.
You see I think you are conflating two issues. 1. The degree to which Covid is in circulation in the population (the prevalence); 2. The degree to which people are mixing (effectively the R number). You are right that when the prevalence is very high the real utility of the app is diluted because people will turn it off or ignore advice to isolate, you will get too many perceived false positives etc. BUT its importance actually goes up with a high R number. All the UK governments do seem to be taking a "**** it the virus seems to work well enough" gamble so the prevalence is through the roof. They should have got the prevalence low enough that a huge R number was acceptable and the app could have been part of that mitigation.
That said, if you are getting that many "hits" you are obviously mingling close to lots of people for lots of time and that seems like a high-risk thing to do. I can virtually guarantee not having my app notify me, by being an antisocial bugger! The app doesn't know if I'm wearing a mask, or the other person is, if I'm indoors or out, if we have a plastic screen between us, or if I am nominally 10 or 190 cm from their face so actually it's a pretty poor tool for assessing contacts anyway.
I didn't know this "how" get your Covid Pass for Travel, might be handy for some:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/explainers-55718553
Had to get a covid pass to go to Wembley on Wednesday. As it turned out, I'll be amazed if I haven't got covid from going there!