onewheelgood. I have this with my own father. Despite being fit enough to walk 10 miles and to climb small hills because of existing long term conditions he would never survive ventilation and even a moderate covid infection will kill him. Its tough but thats the reality
A senior doc should speak to you even if only over the phone. Be polite but insistent and ask questions rather than demand things ( sorry that sounds patronising but hopefully you know what I mean)
Edit - pm me if you want to discuss off forum
Cases are reported as new cases. We don’t record recoveries. Very roughly, the number of people that are infected I s about that number times 10. The number infectious about half of that.
Anyone thinking Drakeford, followed by Sturgeon, will start the national lockdown ball rolling this week and force our English pmuppet to follow suit?
You mean exactly the same as the first time? Pretty much guaranteed.
The pubs and restaurants are all fully booked here today. We’re all expecting a full lockdown again tomorrow
Good luck with trying to enforce it.
There’s real and justified anger now, up here, that we’re the ones paying the price for months of serial incompetence and corruption in Westminster from this gang of useless, pocket-lining shysters.
Leveling up? **** off!
Lisa Nandy said she's not felt this anger and resentment towards the government since the 80's and she's right. That's exactly what it's starting to feel like. We're being abandoned to our fate by a Tory government again.
https://twitter.com/bbcpolitics/status/1315221633708232704?s=21
It's not even just the bars and pubs that will suffer if they close, it's the surrounding industries like taxi firms, bus companies, take out establishments in city centres, even things like fashion and clothing companies as the longer this lack of socialising goes on the less people will be buying new outfits for nights out, jewelry, accessories and the like. Has nobody in the government really considered the knock on effects?
There’s real and justified anger now, up here, that we’re the ones paying the price for months of serial incompetence In Westminster
Rossendale elect a Tory MP (who actually lives in Wales) for purely selfish reasons, and are only becoming frustrated at the serial incompetence in Westminster now?
It's honestly looking like we've got a clueless, flailing government that now has no idea whatsoever what to do (who'd have thunk it?).
They've chucked billions at private companies that have spectacularly failed to deliver (who'd have thunk it?) and now they're completely devoid of any ideas. Plus, they've now torched all goodwill and any hope of large scale public cooperation, due to their sheer incompetence
God only knows what nonsense they'll come up with tomorrow. Nothing good, that's for sure.
The measures needed to go in at the end of last week not next! Utter nonsense to say "there will be restictions in a weeks time" - everyone just goes out and makes merry and how many more infections did that create?
@binners - tomorrow's message will be that the people have once again been complacent and let everyone down. The Govt is doing is it's utmost but silly poor unwashed Northern oiks have let us all down. How many of them even know where Skelmersdale, Todmorden or Batley are?
The reality is that this bunch of idiots are simply out of their depth and have no clue what life is like outside of their privileged surroundings. Wit is multiplicative in their case, two half-wits give you a quarter-wit etc. Etc. There's over 30 in Cabinet meetings!!
I'm actually starting to admire little Matty Handjob's resilience in that he gets wheeled out to spout some shite and gets pummeled from every angle. Yet he still takes the punches. He genuinely has no idea what a pathetic individual he is and still thinks he's correct. I feel sorry for his home town as when he's in Westminster the village is deprived of its idiot.
The measures needed to go in at the end of last week not next!
As a minimum.
Lisa Nandy nailed it in that interview, the govt have lost the North of the country for a generation now. The win in the general election means nothing to them now and it will be the tipping point for the rest of the country too. Any new lockdown is doomed to fail purely down to the govts complete incompetence. I know I'm in Wales and we've had a certain amount of flexibility over out local restrictions so don't have direct experience of what the North has gone through but even from watching on the sidelines it's obvious you've all be properly screwed over in favour of the South. Any anger is entirely justified.
Another 600+ admissions to hospital.
the govt have lost the North of the country
Dont think their geographical strategy will help them when the voting starts, I don’t see the South saving their bacon. This government has been the most inept government in history whilst pissing away public funds tho thier friends before the shooting starts. It’s been a grandiose retirement plans at the expense of tens of thousands of lives.
You can tell we are expecting a London lockdown, my road is packed with family vehicles and people popping around for a Sunday gathering while they still can. I’ve not been near a pub but I can guess the attendance levels.
Cases down this weekend but wasn’t it always? Let’s wait until Tuesday....
Cases are reported as new cases. We don’t record recoveries. Very roughly, the number of people that are infected I s about that number times 10. The number infectious about half of that.
If I do the numbers on that for France at the current 20 000 daily new cases:
I get 10 x 20 000 = 200 000 per day ("that number times ten") and 40 million in 200 days. ie. enough for the infamous herd immunity by next April.
That's quicker than any guesstimate I've seen to date.
I don't think that's what he is saying. I think he's saying that if you are running at 20 k cases/day you probably have about 200 k cases in total in your population, not that your true infection rate is 200 k per day .
I think you're probably right, dpfr. I thought I'd found the answer to a question that interests me if you look back at some of my previous contributions. That is, how does the actual infection rate in the community compare with the new cases published which is just the confirmed positive tests.
The real number is clearly bigger because they tell a lot of contacts they don't need testing, A-A of this parish for example, some people don't go for a test, there a still false negatives in the tests, many people have no idea they should go for a test because they're asymptomatic, some people think they need a test but can't get one. 10 times did seem a lot and is no doubt too high but there's multiplier that needs to be used, it's just that we don't know what it is.
And still no official word from government after their kite-flying exercise on Thursday in the Times.
Dominic Cummings is still happily governing by focus group, it appears.
Following the science? Following the newspaper headlines, more like.
It’s criminal negligence
600 admissions today will be 90-150 deaths next weekend. We don’t know the ratio of new infections to admissions. If it is 1%, which is a guess, that would be 60k new infections a few days ago. If it’s 3%, that’s 20k/day. Compare that with estimates from ONS and REACT gives you a reasonable ball park figure.
The 10x new cases is the number of people infected. 5x new admissions is number in hospital.
And I quote.
During the most recent week (25 September to 1 October 2020), we estimate there were around 3.16 new COVID-19 infections for every 10,000 people per day (95% credible interval: 2.53 to 4.19) in the community population in England, equating to around 17,200 new cases per day (95% credible interval: 13,800 to 22,900).
There is no magic here.
the govt have lost the North of the country for a generation now.
I'm not convinced that your belief in voters' masochism being so limited is justified. I fear that next time around the voters will still be tugging their forelocks and voting for the masters upstairs.
Has anyone established where the virus is reaching the vulnerable age groups? One has to wonder if it would have been cheaper to simply pay them all to stay at home for a couple of years rather than all the furlough schemes and economical losses. I get that there are healthcare and social care workers who are in regular contact with these age groups but where are those people catching the virus?
One has to wonder if it would have been cheaper to simply pay them all to stay at home for a couple of years
Check out the report alternative Sage did on this last week. It’s far more people effected and far more expensive than people seem to think… and far from feasible even if we did want to pay for it and were happy to lock so many people away.
Check out the report alternative Sage did on this last week. It’s far more people effected and far more expensive than people seem to think… and far from feasible even if we did want to pay for it and were happy to lock so many people away.
I'll have a look. Surely though it's not that different to what we currently have in northern locked down areas as nobody is allowed to visit friends or family indoors or in their garden anyway.
Well now...
I, along with 15 odd other people, have just been kicked out of my local bar by council officials backed up by a riot van and a number of police officers.
No warning, no reason given, just drink up and leave now.
This is a bar that has followed every rule, enforced every behaviour, stuck every sticker, put up every plexi glass screen, every hand sanitiser...
No cases traced to the bar...
All socially distanced, yes?
Tables of 4 people max, spread out as far as the space allowed.
App used to log in to the destination.
...and the police, when asked if we could finish our drinks said 'you can take them over the road to the neighbouring pub'.
So everyone did.
WTF.
Well now…
I, along with 15 odd other people, have just been kicked out of my local bar by council officials backed up by a riot van and a number of police officers.
No warning, no reason given, just drink up and leave now.
This is a bar that has followed every rule, enforced every behaviour, stuck every sticker, put up every plexi glass screen, every hand sanitiser…
No cases traced to the bar…
Curious to know what law was being broken, if no law has been broken and the police would not state what law was being broken, does the owner of the pub not simply just ask the police to leave their private property?
I don't know how the thing works, there was a chat between the Landlord and the Police and he came in and said drink up, we are being shut down.
It appeared that the council officer was the responsible person; whether this is done through the licensee laws via the council?
Meh, 15 middle aged ladies and gentlemen on a Sunday afternoon; pissed off.
Right or wrong that is hardly the kind of behaviour from the authorities that will get the public back on side with the life restrictions we are under. Stuff like that just further undermines acceptance of the situation.
While I accept how badly the government has handled this means that a lot of people will ignore the new restrictions, please don't be one of those people. However angry and frustrated we are, Rule #1 has to apply before anything else. I want my kids to be able to see their vulnerable grandparents down south at some point in 2021, not seen them since Christmas.
That. x2
Meh, 15 middle aged ladies and gentlemen on a Sunday afternoon; pissed off.
Presumably whatever caused the action hadn’t occurred while you were there… more likely to be Friday or Saturday night, no?
Given that I'll be dragged back into working on ITU pretty soon, I'm the last person on earth to be messing about and ignoring any rules.
But kicking me out of a pub?
With a half done crossword?
I think we all know what kind of a trick that is...
sounds like that shutdown is nowt to do with CV19 (from this uninformed distant viewpoint)
But it won’t be about you or your crossword, it’ll be about the pub/bar.
just how bad were you doing with the crossword?
But it won’t be about you or your crossword, it’ll be about the pub/bar.
Do you want me to get all sarcastic about this? I know.
I also know that the rate of infection in my bit of the town is almost the lowest of all, yet 2 pubs have been shut down. The parts of town with no pub going population seem to be the places with the problem.
I see this in terms of socio-economic factors, others may not be as subtle.
just how bad were you doing with the crossword?
Really badly; some weeks it appears to be a goer, some weeks... 🙂
[1] Crow bottoms out a year after maturity (7)?
I'm not a cryptic type of chap, nor is my general knowledge good enough for the jumbo crossword. I always get stuck on some Italian composer or the wife of the man whose daughter married some poet from Greece.
I can juggle, badly.
I can't believe I'm being chastised by someone with an OBE...
🙂
...Wait, Covid would be the crow, 19 when it's now 2020...
Covid19?
[1] Crow bottoms out a year after maturity (7)?
Very nice.
Ah come on fellas, I don't know...
I can’t believe I’m being chastised by someone with an OBE…
[2] Gong begins rigid rule adherence (4)
I got thrown out of my pub today, show me some mercy!
Ooh ooh! that's OBEY!
you were right first time 😉 . Bottom is aRse and 18 is the year of maturity. Everyone has had that crow spell-checker moment 😀
