The Coronavirus Discussion Thread.

Sorry - it was my attempt at humour rather than a real question!! The placebo was a meningitis vaccine.
At my trial location the options were Moderna, Curevac or a 1/2 shot of Pfizer (they want to know if vaccine supply can be stretched.)

Whooosh --- the sound of a joke going over TiRed's head.

From one of my relatives (so not all so trustworthy after all):

Just received either a Covid booster vaccine or placebo as part of a trial. Tried to peek and see which but blinding was too effective.

🙈

I get through a fair number. I only register the ones that I’m legally required to take. I suspect many other people do the same.

Basically this. I tried to log one on the nhs app it didnt work so now I just do the test if it was positive I would feel more urgency. But its always negative so why i can't be bothered. I guess the issue is those who are positive can they bet bothered either.

Recording it is a pain in the arse. My youngest moans every time he has to do it. Needs streamlining.

Its much easier for yourself once you've set up an account.

I do my kids twice weekly - it takes 10 minutes for both and registering with the schools via a google form.

I reckon all the under 50s have been given a placebo - save money and let it rip!

(This is not my honest opinion)

I also know we’ve a small pile of boxes in the cupboard – we had mini_oab at school, middle_oab at college, mrs_oab at nurseries and I meet my staff who are all in school. We do 2x tests a week each, and so when we get tests we get more than a few.

I have a mate with a surplus of test kits, simmilar to you, so he's given me quite a few over the months, I just tested myself out of curiosity mainly... they've come up negative so I've just binned them. Might be a bit naughty, but thats accounted for probaly a good four or five of the 'missing' 600k tests.

I imagine white a lot of people who have a load of tests in the cupboard have given some away to friends/family?

I do wonder if some of the school/u18 policy is in the "let it rip" camp.

I suspect there is an element of that with the schools.
I'm not sure that the risk profile is there to justify vaccination for all under 18's. (My personal opinion)

I do wonder if…

Since the government signalled that mask wearing in secondary schools is not longer required, I’ve done more than wonder… I’ve assumed that it a deliberate policy to spread infections through school age teens before the summer break. Not sure there’s really any other reading of it.

vaccination for all under 18’s

Who said all? Offer it to all and leave it up to the teens and their families. The uptake would probably be pretty strong, especially for 16/17 yr olds. Preferably do so before abandoning track/trace/isolate, mask wearing etc in learning environments.

Well, despite being double jabbed, being extremely cautious (bed-wettingly so), choosing my shopping times carefully and wearing a FFP2 mask when doing so, I’ve just tested positive. No symptoms at all so far. The only potential contact is my sister-in-laws partner who tested + last week, but the only link is via my wife who met her sister for 2 minutes outside before that test was confirmed. Both wife & SIL are negative, so I have to say I’m really perplexed. No other contacts at all in the last week or so. Were it not for it being unlikely I’d be bleating about a false positive, but there you go.

close contacts of cases won’t have to isolate if they have been double jabbed.

And yet folk are still going on about young folk not giving a ****, no wonder, they must feel like they've been roundly shat on.

Keep working while the oldies shelter
Keep going to uni, even though you're nowhere near uni
Keep yer shoulder to the wheel, while the oldies **** off on holiday
Ibiza? haha, get back to work ya young scallywag!

Oh, and you young uns be paying for this shitshow til ye drop.

Mates dad tested positive a few months back after an office outbreak.. No symptoms at all apparently and that was a test carried out by a medical person of some sort so will have been done properly.

That's maybe the most difficult thing with covid.. So easy to spread if your symptomless and unaware but for the seemingly random unlucky few it can mean ICU and potentially death.

That's what annoys me most about some people's attitudes towards covid, 'I'm OK so I can do what I want'.. Whilst potentially handing someone a death sentence. Weapons grade wallopers. Litteraly.

Re the LF tests, me and the wife have been doing them when going out for work, her more than me but neither of us had any idea your supposed to log them.

1,294 cases amongst tartan army fans returning from London, including 397 who were at the match - not a good look!

1,294 cases amongst tartan army fans returning from London, including 397 who were at the match – not a good look!

What were the other 897 doing? being good little vectors? lol

And yet folk are still going on about young folk not giving a *, no wonder, they must feel like they’ve been roundly shat on.

Keep working while the oldies shelter
Keep going to uni, even though you’re nowhere near uni
Keep yer shoulder to the wheel, while the oldies * off on holiday
Ibiza? haha, get back to work ya young scallywag!

Oh, and you young uns be paying for this shitshow til ye drop.

As I keep saying, my almost 18 year old and his mates don't feel this way, happily accept that they have had to make sacrifices to protect older people, and are rushing to get jabbed as soon as they can. When I've mentioned this supposed resentment about older people getting more freedoms, they really don't understand that view point.

So is it actually the youngsters with this issue, or those in-between the young and the so-called boomers?

I do wonder if some of the school/u18 policy is in the “let it rip” camp.

There are 11m children in the U.K. about 3m have antibodies. That leaves a pool of 8m highly mixing susceptible to spread the virus around. About 25% of children are not in school. What’s the worst that can happen.

On a positive note, the vaccine seems to reduce hospitalisations by about 98%. We know antibodies reduce hospitalisations by 80% patients in those very likely to have to go to hospital too.

But what about delta being more pathogenic? Will this move down to more symptomatic younger people? Data is still a little grey. Younger age of admissions due to vaccination, but are we in for a spike in children admitted as we see for influenza (yes really they have a higher admission rate than the elderly).

I can’t see us not vaccinating adolescents (12-17y)

Well, despite being double jabbed, being extremely cautious (bed-wettingly so), choosing my shopping times carefully and wearing a FFP2 mask when doing so, I’ve just tested positive.

I think this new variant means most folks are going to get it now, it’s going to be near impossible to avoid given it seems you can get it through fleeting contact. For the first time I’m hearing of close friends and neighbours who are getting it, after avoiding it for past 18 months. Certainly feels like delta is far more infectious than the original strain than the x2.4 quoted

Now I’m fully jabbed up my thinking is definitely changing from doing everything I can to avoid it to mostly just accepting I’m going to now be exposed, and gambling the vaccine will do its job. If that means a few days feeling crap so be it.

I think however it’s utter madness to remove restrictions until everyone who wants to be vaccinated has received 2 doses. We are well short of that at the moment.

So is it actually the youngsters with this issue, or those in-between the young and the so-called boomers?

all the 20 something year olds I know who I’ve talked to about this (sample size of 3 tbf) very much don’t agree with you. Yes they see the need to do their bit, but they also resent the situation tremendously.

1,294 cases amongst tartan army fans returning from London,

Including two brothers from a family in my wee galloway town, they didn't bother to isolate when they returned home from their London trip but went to the 4 open pubs in the town causing the first mini outbreak in this town and also infected their workmates amongst others, 4 folk still in hospital, one of the brothers was also in hospital, not for covid though. He got a severe kicking from .......... and suffered a broken jaw and pretty messed up face.

Got what he deserved.

In fairness they technically didn't need to isolate if they went to England so why would they?

Also, if 4 folks are in hospital then how big is the outbreak? According to statistics only 3% of cases end in hospitalization. So it must have been far more than a mini outbreak!

In fairness they technically didn’t need to isolate if they went to England so why would they?

Indeed, nothing technical about it, no requirement to isolate after a trip to London! Unless of course they already had a positive test..?

In fairness they technically didn’t need to isolate if they went to England so why would they?

Common sense / decency - it might be fine to travel by letter of the law, however if you're putting yourself into a position where there are ten thousand other people travelling from different areas of the country to the same place (which i think at the time had a higher infection rate, especially of the delta variant) in the middle of a pandemic, against the advice of the government, to ignore all social distancing guidelines for a weekend & have a big piss up, and then all travel back to their own areas & mix freely within the community again it seems like they've ignored rule #1 big time.

Rangers fans' recent title celebrations rightly got slated - the TA have made a roaring arse of it this time & no amount of fairy liquid in fountains will make up for it.

Common sense / decency

Well yeah, I wouldn't have done it for sure. The fact that around 15% of those in the stadium tested positive is shocking. In all likelihood they didn't get it in the stadium itself, but the scenes from the train station give a very strong hint at where everyone got it from

Common sense / decency ...

Major realism failure there. Government has given the green light for these events to go ahead - we should be directly the blame that way. They must have know that realistically there wouldn't be any social distancing, and that the pre-event self tests are hardly foolproof.

Common sense / decency

And this, folks, is why the government's intention to suspend rules and rely on 'good old British common sense' creates more problems than it solves. If the government tells you it is OK to travel to these events on public transport, sit in the seats, have a drink (or 10) in a pub, and travel back with no quarantine or testing requirement, then why are the locals outraged when someone picks up the virus and spreads it? Unless they were required to do a LFT and didn't, or tested positive but still went to the pub, what exactly have they done wrong?

Clear, simple rules mean that you, and others, are aware of your responsibilities. I wouldn't have travelled, but 'advice' carries far less weight to a large part of the population. After all, how many people routinely ignore health advice?

That's not to say that we shouldn't suspend the rules, but there should be an acceptance that the negative consequences of doing so are part of the price of these freedoms, rather than the fault of a reckless minority.

Major realism failure there. Government has given the green light for these events to go ahead – we should be directly the blame that way

Problem is that's what 10000 odd dicks are using as a cop out right now - "it's the government's fault we travelled to the other end of the country for a piss up despite being told not to, if only they'd stopped the trains & dragged us back to our houses we'd have got the message..." Anyone with half a brain would have known it was a dick move but did it anyway. Hell mend 'em.

"

I think this new variant means most folks are going to get it now, it’s going to be near impossible to avoid given it seems you can get it through fleeting contact. For the first time I’m hearing of close friends and neighbours who are getting it, after avoiding it for past 18 months. Certainly feels like delta is far more infectious than the original strain than the x2.4

Agree 100%. Me and wife and 2kids all tested positive at the weekend and been knocked out unable to move for 2 days after a year of avoiding it all we can.
With just 1 jab in us thinking we may have got off lightly but still feel very weak.
Missing the biking and fresh air immensely though. Anyone any advice on timeline for getting back on the trails?

Latest from the red tops (apologies if I’ve missed it earlier) – from freedom day, close contacts of cases won’t have to isolate if they have been double jabbed.

Do you honestly think many are bothering to isolate now? At best they'll do a test, and probably only then if they feel unwell. Track and trace is a minor irritant that can just be ignored.

Now I’m fully jabbed up my thinking is definitely changing from doing everything I can to avoid it to mostly just accepting I’m going to now be exposed, and gambling the vaccine will do its job. If that means a few days feeling crap so be it.

My view now. Almost keen to get it over and done with

ON Sky news: Most vulnerable people to get a booster in September.

if you get it now having had a vaccine, it is effectively a booster. But I’m not going out my way to try and catch it.

Still trying to get vaccinated in China. 3 attempts since it rolled out in my city

First: They announced "everyone can get vaccinated, just register at your local community centre". 3 of us expats turned up and our passport numbers wouldn't register. Turned out "everyone" just meant nationals. Everyone that counts, I guess.

Second: now expats can get vaccinated, if work register it. Almost immediately they announce no initial vaccinations after a problem with an outbreak 3 regions SE of us.

In the interim, authorisation for 11-17 year olds announced.

Third: Your company can register you. Company try, but only nationals. Company then plays the system and registers us under that category, and as we are about to set off, somebody from the clinic rang up and said "Now, hang on a minute! That one's got blue eyes!"

They messaged everyone to tell them to come in to work this morning at 0700hrs, when we run 100-2100hrs shifts midweek,to watch a livestream of the leader's speech as jets, tanks, and men and women in cabbage green marching up and down, whilst threatening the West. Everyone in company logos, for group photos to be sent to the government. I skipped that one.

Anyhow, needed a good laugh. And excuse The Sun, but this one will have you snorting your cereal/tea/whatever out in public. Bonus points if you read it out loud:

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/15448426/chris-whitty-attack-yob-loses-job/amp/

“I feel very let down by Boris, for him to call me a thug. I actually voted for him as well”

Enough said.

So I have to ask, are we informally into “let it rip” territory? I’m assuming that answer is yes on the basis that dignatories and tortes are allowed to avoid isolation, cases don’t seem to matter any more, it’s soon to be that vaccinated people don’t need to isolate and so on. It seems likely that 50% of adults will get a winter booster together with their flu jab, with the remainder likely waiting until Easter, then maybe we’ll see a combined vaccine by September 2022. It kind of feels that this is how it’s playing out?

are we informally into “let it rip” territory?

Yes.

Aye, it's over in the eyes of many, and who can blame them, if you've enough money, no need to isolate, hands face space? na, pump yer aide.

I'm coming round to MCTD's line of thinking, I'll keep taking obvious precautions, masks don't bother me (Though my wife having to wear one for 13 hours a day will argue that point), cleanliness etc is great and needs to keep going, and I don't go to pubs anyway, hey ho, it's getting to 'just get on with it' time.

I’ll keep taking obvious precautions, masks don’t bother me (Though my wife having to wear one for 13 hours a day will argue that point), cleanliness etc is great and needs to keep going, and I don’t go to pubs anyway, hey ho, it’s getting to ‘just get on with it’ time.

I agree. I'm not sure if this is a middle age thing but everyone in my social & professional circle is pretty much at this point. I can't help getting a bit anxious about case numbers though, thats going to take some time - for me at least - to become relatively inconsequential background noise.

I'd just like to clarify, I'm resigned to me catching it at some point, but will continue to avoid it where possible. Uncertain whether to restart doing club rides, though we've not had a case connected to rides throughout the pandemic when we've been able to run them.

More concerned for my 80 year old parents, my son, who as an aspiring musician relies on his fully functioning lungs, my daughter, who has represented GB at sport, so likewise, and my wife, who while her disability doesn't leave her vulnerable, I'd prefer didn't get it.

A lot of the businesses that are clamouring to be mask-free, because they think that having to put on a mask puts off customers, may find that a similarly-sized group of customers will stop going in because they don't want to stand around with unmasked, non socially-distanced people.

I agree

This is a first for us Kryters! 🙂

Aye MCTD, I wasn't suggesting that, sorry!

If the wearing of masks becomes the discretion of individual stores from the 19th, there's going to be an awful lot of unpretty scenes when mask-less individuals try and enter stores where masks are compulsory.

I'd much rather see the nationwide default rule being masks must be worn in shops, unless a shop displays a clear sign to say masks don't need to be worn, but I doubt it will happen.

It feels very much like we are in "let it rip" territory now in England, topped off with what little Javid has said since taking over from Hancock. Drakeford seems slightly more conservative with the Welsh approach than Sturgeon does in Scotland right now, but I'm expecting both to be running out the summer far more cautiously than Boris.

I can’t help getting a bit anxious about case numbers though, thats going to take some time – for me at least – to become relatively inconsequential background noise.

26K new cases reported yesterday, 17K as a rolling average. We are well on track towards 100K per day before end of July. I can't see that as inconsequential, with that much circulating then chances of catching are clearly increasing, it's whether your vaccination will protect you sufficiently when you do. So far the death rate remains encouragingly low, but it's a numbers game and it will rise. To tolerable levels? 1700 people die every day in the UK, 14 covid deaths recorded yesterday.

On the point of 'I'll keep wearing a mask'. Sadly that won't help that much; it's only proper (FFP3) that really protect you, the paper or fabric ones help others. So while it's great to continue, it's those that can't be arsed that are going to cause the problem for you.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-57636360

And finally - in before one of our resident 'other siders' hits us with the fact that more people are dying of Covid that have had the vaccine than those that haven't.....yes it's true. The vaccine isn't 100.00% effective and people will still die, but those most likely to have had the vaccine so far are those that are more susceptible, those that haven't are the young and healthy who are least likely to die. But they may pass it on or have long lasting effects....

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-57610998

As the article points out, if we had total vaccination, then ALL deaths would be from the vaccinated cohort. Interpret that as you will.

If the wearing of masks becomes the discretion of individual stores from the 19th, there’s going to be an awful lot of unpretty scenes when mask-less individuals try and enter stores where masks are compulsory.

If there is no mask mandate, it will quickly become unenforceable by businesses. I wouldn't be surprised if some people want to mask up but feel it will attract stigma to do so, so stay away instead.

And finally – in before one of our resident ‘other siders’ hits us with the fact that more people are dying of Covid that have had the vaccine than those that haven’t…..yes it’s true.

Of course. The under 40s were never very likely to die from this, so deaths will remain among those for whom the vaccine hasn't delivered enough protection. I'm sure a lot of older people are misguidedly thinking the double vaccine makes them invulnerable, though, so their behaviour has changed and they are at much higher risk of at least picking it up.

Every action, every message from the government has consequences in terms of risk mitigation and spread. And this is not a government which deals in carefully-considered messages.

I've seen a lot of comments regarding difficulty getting the NHS App and Covid Pass to work - registration type problems - on Android.

Anyone have any experience of this and any advice before I start the process?

On the point of ‘I’ll keep wearing a mask’. Sadly that won’t help that much; it’s only proper (FFP3) that really protect you, the paper or fabric ones help others

Tbh, I can only be responsible my actions and to attempt to control my 'emissions'.

You've just got to look at the infection figures and what the govt are saying (especially Javid) to realise that they are going to have their 'Freedom Day' no matter what and that they're pinning everything on the vaccine being effective against any new variants that appear. Any reversal of that policy from now on will be political suicide in normal times but this lot know that they can get away with whatever they want without worrying about the consequences so all bets are off on what the future holds.

I'll be wearing my mask in shops for a while yet even if I don't have to. Hopefully here in Wales we're a bit more hesitant about opening up fully but we'll still have to deal with idiots coming over the border like we did last year.

Tbh, I can only be responsible my actions and to attempt to control my ’emissions’.

Yep, me too, just making the point that unless you gear up to use proper FFP3 you're relying on everyone else to protect you from their emissions. Which frankly won't happen.

I’ve seen a lot of comments regarding difficulty getting the NHS App and Covid Pass to work – registration type problems – on Android.

I had no problems - entered my details, think I had my NHS number - but didn't have to scan photo ID like others seem to have done.

I'll echo the others thoughts - I'm more concerned with passing the virus on to someone vulnerable than I am about catching it myself. With two kids in big secondary schools I've restricted my own activities in the last 9 months in case I pass on something the kids have brought home (though in fairness, both schools have been excellent with measures and infections)

We had our second shots yesterday.

Sore arm each again today and both very tired. Same as I feel when my body is "fighting something " I guess.

are we informally into “let it rip” territory?

https://bylinetimes.com/2021/06/24/the-ghost-of-herd-immunity-still-haunts-boris-johnsons-roadmap-out-of-lockdown/

Interesting data on page 7 showing the vaccine is slightly more effective in preventing hospitalisation in the delta variant vs. the alpha strain. Not what I was expecting given the weaker antibody response with delta.

The only explanation I can think of is data from the delta variant will be more recent and maybe infections acquired more lately could be at a lower viral load given the level of population vaccination. Or it could just be a mistake?

Don't worry about the infection rate rise as in a couple of weeks the number of positive tests will drop as all of the school testing will have stopped.

If the link between cases and deaths had not been broken by the vaccination it would be pretty clear by now. We are past the point of the deaths lagging infections by a few weeks, we would be seeing them now from the initial rise in infection which was early May ish.

are we informally into “let it rip” territory?

https://bylinetimes.com/2021/06/24/the-ghost-of-herd-immunity-still-haunts-boris-johnsons-roadmap-out-of-lockdown//blockquote >

That’s illuminating. So essentially the long term is a bit like chicken pox or measles - we expose the kids to it early and they are protected by building immunity. It’s us old gits who have had it introduced suddenly and without the benefit of that immunity that need the vaccines, and in the future it’s those kids that grow into Adults with reduced immune system capability or other health issues that need a vaccine rather like flu.

 

I’m still toying with idea of going to my mates wedding in 2 weeks. I’m double jabbed but still slightly reluctant to spend an evening indoors surrounded by a load of 30 something year olds (who haven’t been fully vaccinated and are planning a massive pub crawl in Glasgow for the stag the week before) with absolutely zero social distancing in place

Just seem to me to be an unnecessary risk given the numbers are out of control in Scotland at the moment. I don’t just risk getting it, perhaps more likely scenario is 10 days isolation when I inevitably come into contact with someone who has it

Am I being overly concerned?

If it's isolation due to close contact that's worrying you, I'd suggest that requirement will be dropped in less than three weeks..

Am I being overly concerned?

I think you're being cautiously sensible.

If the link between cases and deaths had not been broken by the vaccination it would be pretty clear by now. We are past the point of the deaths lagging infections by a few weeks, we would be seeing them now from the initial rise in infection which was early May ish.

I agree, it's certainly looking that way.

Cases x some multiplier = deaths, 3 weeks or so later - has always been and for now at least always will be.

It's just that because of the vaccine, but also the acquired immunity and also that the cases are demographically much more in the lower risk age group anyway, today's multiplier is lower than 'last year's'

However - if cases gets very large, cases x m2 can still be a large number. Tolerable? possibly, for the benefits of getting back to normal. Unless of course it's your wife / dad.

Second jab booked for just 1 day under 8 weeks since my first.

The numbers from that PHE document are encouraging!

Its not quite a U turn, but we're still delivering freedom day

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2021/jul/01/uk-covid-coronavirus-live-news-batley-and-spen-boris-starmer-politics-live

I know how impatient people are to get back to total normality, as indeed am I.

But there may be some things we have to do, extra precautions that we have to take, but I’ll be setting them out.

. Interpret that as you will.

People do not understand relative risk. Or risk for that matter. I liken us to riding down a steep hill trying to not run away. We’re about to let the brakes off, but we don’t really know how far down the hill we are. Probably quite a long way, but the spread by unprotected children has potential for some rapid accelerations.

BTW I was told off for stating that the cases-admissions-deaths link was “broken”. It’s not since there will still be failures, but it has certainly been weakened.

Have a cold this week, my lungs are reminding me that it’s not over yet. I wouldn’t recommend infection if you can avoid it, personally. Certainly not BEFORE vaccination. After, likely a lot better.

If it's no masks from the 19th it'll pretty much keep me out of any local businesses while the infection rate so high, I had hoped to get out and about a bit more this summer but it looks like we are going down the brakes off and let it run route. So I'll be hunkering down until it's burnt itself out, work might be a problem given they seem insistent on people back in the office even after a historically outstanding performance while people were WFH.

I was on the 2043 from Euston commuti g home on Tuesday trains been getting busier (nowhere near back to normal) 99% wear wear masks & distance very well

So all the England fans coming back from the game was real shock, a lot still drinking, chanting and falling over and obviously none wearing masks or able to distance whilst so busy

You can see easily how the Scotland game was a superspreader event

(my 25yr old cousin in Glenrothes has been bedbound with covid this week)

Please pass on my sympathies Kimbers, nobody deserves Glenrothes

status quo ante Covid

Good old Boris, speaking in terms those red wall Tory voters just love.....

The England fans incident would be a good preview of what would happen if Freedom Day goes ahead with a complete lifting, if not worse as cases will probably only increase between now and then.

Please pass on my sympathies Kimbers, nobody deserves Glenrothes

As someone who lives local to Glenrothes I’m genuinely surprised that covid is able to survive in the body of the average glenrothes resident…it must be one hardy virus!

Hospital admissions currently are about 1/1000 of cases. As there is a lag between cases and admissions, and cases are increasingly very fast, and we’re planning to remove much of the measures we have left to reduce transmission… I wouldn’t get too excited about that long delayed hospital appointment for a nonCovid problem happening this summer.

Hospital admissions currently are about 1/1000 of cases

Are you sure? I think that’s the death rate. Hospital admissions are far far higher, 3% last time I heard.

Hospital admissions currently are about 1/1000 of cases

Are you sure? I think that’s the death rate. Hospital admissions are far far higher, 3% last time I heard.

On the day* cases are reported, admissions are about 0.1%, I think.
If you take into account the lag, 3% seems reasonable I suppose, I don't know.

[ *take yesterday... cases reported ∼25,000 , admissions ∼250 ]

we are on about 20,000 cases a day (confirmed) and 200 hospitalisations a day

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=GBR

in 2nd wave in October 20,000 cases a day we were on 1100 hospitalisations a day

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/uk-daily-covid-admissions?time=earliest..latest

so to say the link between cases/hospitalisation has been broken is wrong, but its certainly been reduced, greatly

I know from clinical colleagues that there huuge pressure to deal with NHS backlog, which has medics working flat out right now

even a small covid surge may cause problems