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They are going to have to abandon self isolation or nothing will work. Even at today's level of infections, schools are really struggling to stay open as large numbers of staff and support staff are isolating. After another 3 weeks of exponential growth they will have no staff left. Neither will most other businesses.
If you don't put any check on transmission in schools and work places, you're going to end up with staff off for longer.
Two of our local secondary schools have shut today, feeling is that there will be more before the school holidays. Have gov.uk ****ed up again because the couldn't bear to u turn on a a stronger anti social policy?
200 hospitalisations a day is about where we were in mid september
At that point it took another 9 days to reach 300 a day, so if next Weds we are on 300 then 19th really isnt happening
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/uk-daily-covid-admissions?time=2020-07-24..2020-11-01
200 hospitalisations a day is about where we were in mid september
At that point it took another 9 days to reach 300 a day, so if next Weds we are on 300 then 19th really isnt happening
Why are you comparing the current situation to a totally different situation last year?
Based on last year/last wave, hospitalisations would be much higher by now. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-57643694
Look at the fancy graphs comparing last year and now.
The link between cases and hospitalisations has been changed (get that second jab)… so there would need to be many times more cases for admissions for Covid to reach the levels seen in past waves. The big question is, could we end up with many times more cases? What will we be doing to prevent us getting to that point? Will the current (high) levels of vaccination, paired with summer behaviour (outdoors) be enough? That’s the gamble. I think we find out the answer after August, not before. If I had a say (I don’t, so don’t get angry with me if this happens and you don’t like it) I’d get close to 100% of businesses as fully open as possible next month, but keep the less economically damaging measures (masks in shops, table service in pubs etc) ‘till we see what the return to schools looks like in September. Get businesses going, but still prioritise education as well. Disturbance to another school year just to have the political warm hug of telling people they don’t need masks and social distancing over the summer holidays would be unforgivable, in my opinion.
200 hospitalisations a day is about where we were in mid september
Also the hospitalisation rate is not necessarily a good indicator as to whether hospitals are overwhelmed, look at the total number of people in hospital instead. Ie you can have more many more people being hospitalised if on average they only spend (say) 5 days in hospital rather than (say) 15 days.
Kelvin, table service in pubs makes most of them unprofitable owing to far higher staff costs. Just saying. If you need 5 staff on shift usually, it’s 8-10 with table service. And capacity is reduced. There will be lots of pub failures if table service continues.
Media quiet about the big ‘anti-lockdown’ street-party in central London yesterday?
Just saying.
There will be lots of pub failures if another wave of hospital admissions dampens down trade. People need to pay a bit more this summer. And the government could also reduce duty to help pubs make ends meet. And, sorry, much as I’m a strong advocate for pubs, I would like to see a summer plan in place that is trying to make the next school (and college) year the first full one since the 2018/2019 academic year.
Surely in time home testing should negate the need to self isolate?
I agree with you Kelvin, but it’s awful to continue restrictions on pubs trading without financial support. I’d happily support them financially to stay shut.
They need help from both sides, customers and the government. I’m happy to pay a bit more, and happy for them to get a tax break or some other state help to get through what’s coming up. I consider that to be true even if bar service comes back in July, but even more so if it is delayed for a few weeks or months. They can’t cope with being shut again though, let’s help them open, and stay open.
I’d happily support them financially to stay shut.
Or we support them to stay open by paying their actual costs. See also minimum wage carers, shop staff etc. Though relaxing duty to help pubs out is a sound idea.
Why are you comparing the current situation to a totally different situation last year?
Based on last year/last wave, hospitalisations would be much higher by now. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-57643694
Look at the fancy graphs comparing last year and now.
Because as the article you linked to clearly points out ministers would hope to see a flattening of admissions
Its not a certainty that's going to happen, you'd certainly hope/expect any increase to be less steep than last wave, hence why I said 9 days from now we would have a better idea
(the link I put up showed that in September it took about 10 days to go from 100 to 200 cases a day, it's taken about twice that this month)
Which is why its foolish for Javid to say now restrictions will definitely end on 19th
Which is why its foolish for Javid to say now restrictions will definitely end on 19th
Javid is a Sontaran so his blind faith in opening up on the 19th fits in well with his species creed, They are an alien race characterised by their ruthlessness and fearlessness of death
Javid earlier today, with the classic wide legged Sontaran pose
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I see he's renewed his unholy libertarian trinity boy band with Cleverly and IDS.
Still, it’s particularly handy that Madeira made it to the Green list just in time for the PM to go off on holiday there.
Is he? Really?!? He wouldn’t? Would he?!? Read the room Johnson… read the room…
He has read the room, or at lest the one full of Daily Mail readers. He'll force Javid to help honour the July 19th 'Freedom Day', open up our borders via the Green List, go on his holiday then when all the holidaymakers complain about not being let into their chosen country he can blame it on 'those pesky foreigners' who haven't got their vaccinations.
He'll come out the other side with his supporters thinking he's even more of a hero than they already think.
There will be lots of pub failures if table service continues.
How come it works on the continent?
19 new cases in NSW yesterday... feels like good news.
Pressure is building on the federal government (rather than state) to get their shit together.
Vaccination is now mandatory for care-home and quarantine workers.
A couple more community cases in Queensland today and a three day shutdown for a large population of the state.
One of these cases was symptomatic for days and going on planes, to a big market, etc. Fingers crossed she hasn't got the delta variant!
Lots of talk from Queensland state politicians (Labor) demanding the federal government (conservative) reduce the number of international flights entering Australia because guess what? That's how all the cases get in.
Dancing and singing are out. Gyms are closed. Exercise with one other person outside family ... etc, etc.
Glad we went out for dinner last weekend!
$200 on the spot fine for not wearing a mask
$1300 for not following Chief Health Officer's instructions.
One of these cases was symptomatic for days and going on planes, to a big market, etc. Fingers crossed she hasn’t got the delta variant!
Yeah - sounds like she was a temp at the local hospital - working close to (but outside) the ward where covid cases are treated. Wasn't vaccinated, and was symptomatic for 10 days before getting a test ffs.
Lots of talk from Queensland state politicians (Labor) demanding the federal government (conservative) reduce the number of international flights entering Australia because guess what? That’s how all the cases get in.
Yes, the pressure on the federal government from all the premiers (of whatever denomination) seems to be growing. Scomo has always seemed like a "fair weather" PM..... ie: not the guy you want in charge if anything actually needs doing. He was literally absent during the fires, and he seems to be asleep at the wheel now.
Yeah – sounds like she was a temp at the local hospital – working close to (but outside) the ward where covid cases are treated. Wasn’t vaccinated, and was symptomatic for 10 days before getting a test ffs.
So, the state opposition will get all excited about that. Will be interesting to hear why she wasn't vaccinated. Prince Charles is the state's major respiratory hospital. Unless she had a valid medical reason i can't see why she wouldn't have had at least one jab.
We've shut the doors of all our hospitals to visitors except for exceptional circumstances.
Scomo has always seemed like a “fair weather” PM….. ie: not the guy you want in charge if anything actually needs doing. He was literally absent during the fires, and he seems to be asleep at the wheel now.
Who could forget the handshakes debacle!
I don't really understand why the federal gov is so lame on this. In Queensland at least by deeming the pandemic a public emergency (that expires at midnight tonight but no doubt will be extended!) the Chief Health Officer actually tells the state government what to do - potentially removing some of the political interference perhaps?
How come it works on the continent?
Plenty of bars on the continent where table service wasn't a thing (prior to the pandemic). Been a while but my memories are mostly being the "main street/plaza mayor" type bars that had table service (and a focus on food) and the side street/locals bars (and a bit more of a focus on drink) tended towards counter service? (As much a question as an observation)
Anyway in the UK it's a business type that been experiencing a decline in numbers for decades, so I'd have thought anything at all that pushes up costs will accelerate closures?
https://www.statista.com/statistics/310723/total-number-of-pubs-in-the-united-kingdom/
There were approximately 47,200 pubs operating in the United Kingdom in 2019. This represented a decrease of approximately 7,600 pubs in the last ten years, and over 13,600 pubs since 2000.
The default answer has been food but I'm not sure how many can switch to that model. A friend who runs a pub has a kitchen the size of a phone box and not enough cash flow to invest in an extension and commercial kitchen installation. Let alone having a market for it, the village is already well served for pub food.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51135755
I don’t really understand why the federal gov is so lame on this.
They represent the worst of the Australian "boys club" political class - they all just seem to be incredibly low capability individuals. I struggle with the fact that many of them seem to be comfortable standing-up in front of cameras/microphones seemingly without any idea of what they are going to say, or how they are going to say it.
NSW thankfully has Gladys, who (despite her political affiliation) has actually done a really good job on COVID, as she did on the fires, and a Chief Medical officer who also seems very high quality. In a time of crisis, I'm happy to compromise on party preference to have somebody competent in charge!
Just taken my lad (2.5yrs) for a covid test - sent home from daycare with a snotty nose and cough and not allowed back until he has the all clear. Was expecting a long queue and swab-drama, but was pleasantly surprised on both counts: only had to wait for about 3 minutes, and Batfink Jr was hightly entertained by the whole thing, and didn't grumble at all.
Fingers crossed!
Scomo has always seemed like a “fair weather” PM….. ie: not the guy you want in charge if anything actually needs doing. He was literally absent during the fires, and he seems to be asleep at the wheel now.
Imagine having a government headed by someone that rubbish.....oh, hang on....
Hopefully Australia will get it's act together again - feel free to use the UK as an example of what happens when it goes wrong.
Re pubs - lockdown has reminded me of all the things I dislike about them - noise, crowding, fighting to get served at the bar. And I'm just out of practice at going to them now.
They've been in decline and struggling since the war, looking at the number of former pubs around any town or village I've lived in. I'd happy pay a proper price for a nicer pub environment, but the fact is, it's a declining business sadly.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-57640550
A nice article as a reminder, vaccination doesn't stop everyone catching, and possibly transmitting it.
Not enough will read that though.
I don't care what the government are saying at the moment or after July 19th, I'm carrying on as we are and will be amazed if we don't get a big spike in infections.
Although I'm nervous about the rising infections if the vaccines have broken the link to hospitalisation (IF) then I think we should be thinking about opening up and scraping isolation too, for close contacts at least. I know the risk of another variant is there, so probably we should focus even more on that. Personally I'd like to see borders closed to make as like Australia and NZ, and see the messaging shift to, symptoms =test to ID new variants fast. I reckon I'll be feeling nervous as we head into autumn and winter, but it feels to be like the route map has for us here, but now we know HERE is not safe normality. I want to see the next bit of that map please.
Daughter 1 isolating since Monday (primary school) daughter 2's high school have just called PHE were in school and started testing year 9 at 8:45 this morning and found a positive in the 1st 15 minutes so she's home now as well.
I also have no issue with borders being closed provided that the Government supports the industries that this would normally destroy. If at the start they'd closed the border but paid Easyjet's [insert your preferred people mover here] expenses, we'd be in a similar situation to Australia but with a sizable proportion of the population vaccinated, 150,000 fewer deaths, and a bill that's 1% of the size.
Here we go
Britain is on track to remove the remaining coronavirus restrictions by July 19, even as cases of the delta variant causes concerns.
"No date we choose comes with zero risk for COVID. We know we cannot simply eliminate it, we have to learn to live with it. People and businesses need certainty, so we want every step to be irreversible," said Health Secretary Sajid Javid.
https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-digest-delta-variant-cases-more-than-double-in-germany/a-58086507
A nice article as a reminder, vaccination doesn’t stop everyone catching, and possibly transmitting it.
There are positives and negatives to be taken from that article. Sure he was ill but from the timeline It looks like his definition of ‘very ill’ was flu like symptoms for a couple of days and back at work the next week.
Saw a slightly alarming bit of info on the news last night that claimed that protection for those who received 2nd jab after 12 weeks was far higher than after those who got it after 8. Given I had mine pretty much dead on 8 weeks, and it was reduced from 12-8 for the at risk groups and over 40s that can’t be right can it? I could understand slightly higher protection but they made out the difference was substantial.
that can’t be right can it?
It is (depending on what you mean by substantial/slight). But you got your extra protection earlier, which considering the wave of infections now ongoing, was arguably the right move. I made the same call... I'd rather have waited for 12 weeks, to get the best protection... but with one kid in school and my other half working in another school I brought it forward.
I made the same call…
I wasn’t part of the decision making process, In Scotland you don’t book your own appointments, you are just allocated a slot which for me and all my over 40 mates was 8 weeks after first jab
Given the choice I’m not sure what I’d have chosen to do. Maybe leave it a couple of weeks if I’d known I’d had been better protected longer term, but then again you have to trust the scientists know what they are doing.
I've just got the blue envelope for my second jab (Edinburgh). Thing is, I'll be down South that week (Bath). Can I get it while I'm down there or rearrange it for when I get back?
I doubt you'll be able to get it there, would probably make a mess of your vaccination record even if you did, but you can certainly rearrange it. Just need to login to https://vacs.nhs.scot/
Username provided in the first blue letter (not sure if they also include with the second). Or I think theres an option on the website to recover it.
Thanks, that sounds right.
www.nhsinform.scot/covid-19-vaccine appointments is the address in the second letter (which includes the username) so I'll do that. Sounds like it might be better to give it the full 12 weeks anyway.
The letter might have been prompted by doing the checker thing last week:
https://invitations.vacs.nhs.scot/
We all know experts are the enemy of the people now.
That is absolutely mental
It's a shame Boris' water cannons never arrived. Utter scum.
No obvious date or location to verify what it claims to be,
But if I was Whitty and that was my house, I'd probably be about to make a statement along the lines of "**** the lot of you, I resign and I hope you all die a slow and lingering death when your local hospital is overwhelmed by Covid patients, you ignorant ****ing bellends"
A local festival is going ahead which we've got tickets for, as part of an experimental event. Anyway, the entry conditions are either proof of double vaccination, or 2 negative lateral flow tests from the last 48 hours. From what I know of the Tests this is open to abuse very easily. Once on site you can't leave and come back in that day (no camping).
We can sell our tickets or roll them over, I think the fact I'm posting this suggests I don't want to go. If we go and get COVID, we have to self-isolate and 2 weeks of paid for child care goes down the swanny (its during summer holidays).
A local festival is going ahead which we’ve got tickets for, as part of an experimental event.
Is taking transmission risks mandatory as part of some sort of experiment, or could you go and say, avoid the largest crowds and groups, stay fully outside etc.?
Its Tramlines, being done as part of ERP https://www.theguardian.com/music/2021/jun/29/tramlines-and-standon-calling-music-festivals-confirmed-to-go-ahead
So there's no testing on site, you need to provide evidence of a negative lateral flow test. This is easily faked AFAIK as yo either keep a couple of negatives from whenever, or you scan the QR code and tell NHS that it was negative. There's no social distancing and no mandatory face masks. We can probably sit away from the stage outside in a relatively socially distanced space, but anyone in a tent or other stage would mean no social distancing, as would queuing for food / drink and toilets.
Once you're in thats it for the day, so you have to pay over the odds for food and drink, and the lineup isn't great.
A local festival is going ahead which we’ve got tickets for
Once you’re in thats it for the day, so you have to pay over the odds for food and drink, and the lineup isn’t great.
Didn't you know all of the entry requirements before you booked the tickets and who the lineup was?
Struggling to see what the point of your posts regarding this are, you knew what the crack was and now you're having second thoughts, surely you'd have had these second thoughts at the time of booking?
Just sell them and move on.
I bought the tickets in 2019 for 2020, they've rolled over.
TBH its the 'proof of 2 negative lateral flow tests' that concerns me, its wide opne for abuse and I'm amazed they're allowed to go ahead on that basis, but I guess notginh should surprise me.
That worst case estimate of 100k infections a day in Scotland makes sober reading! Even if the vaccine bring the death rate down to 1 in 1000, thsts an awful lot of deaths!
Individually the odds are massively in your favour of course, but collectively we'll be slightly xxxxed
That said, I do agree with the sentiment that'll well just have to live with it so vaccinating as many as possible and then letting it rip, whilst praying a vaccine resistant variant doesn't emerge, is probably the only option now available to us.
60000 people gathering around Wembley, a lot of people on the beer.
Great.
For ticket holders based in England:
Proof of a negative Lateral Flow Test (LFT), reported and demonstrated via your NHS COVID Pass on the NHS app, or a text message or email from NHS Test and Trace. This can be on your device (including a screenshot) or a printout. The test needs to be taken within 48 hours of the time stadium gates open (meaning three hours before match kick-off).
Or proof of full vaccination - both doses received at least 14 days prior to the match. It must be demonstrated either via your NHS COVID Pass on the NHS App or the English vaccination letter. ❗ Your vaccination card will not be accepted.
Or proof of natural immunity, demonstrated via your NHS COVID Pass on the NHS App.
Yeah I booked my second jab at 12 weeks as it was known it gave a bit more protection, but with Delta variant surging in London I brought it forward 2 weeks. A week on I feel quite glad.
We have finally had a work client ask for proof of negative test, so I will see how useful or otherwise the system is in the next couple of days.
Downloading and logging in to the App was a chore in itself, scanning your driving liscence etc.
Possibly related, had 3 scam phonecall attempts today having not had any for months (from a mobile number, call terminated when I remained silent for 2 seconds).
Downloading and logging in to the App was a chore in itself, scanning your driving liscence etc.
What app was this?
I didn't have to provide photo ID for the NHS app, though I think I managed to dig out my NHS number
If you don't have your NHS number their is a free text service to obtain it, I can't think why anyone would need to upload any ID for it. I only needed my name, date of birth and postcode.
Local cafe having to close because of staff shortage due to self isolating
Local cafe having to close because of staff shortage due to self isolating
Pretty common round here - no reports from daughters 600 strong secondary school, surprisingly
What app was this?
NHS app (not NHS covid19)
Needed to verify my identity to link to my doctors.
Can see my (fairly benign) english medical history, which as far as I can work out is correct, so I don't think I've been scammed. Needed an email code and a text code to set up, hopfully now will just go by my fingerprint, becase I've already forgotten the random password.
https://protonsforbreakfast.wordpress.com/2021/06/29/covid-19-wave3/
Today (29th June) my spreadsheet tells me that the weekly averaged figure for new cases is 17,877 rather than 10,000 (est from start of month). And it looks like at the end of the school term (~20th July) the figure could approach 100,000 positive cases per day rather than 40,000. Currently cases are rising as rapidly as they did last summer which indicates that the virus is spreading easily in the non-vaccinated population.
The data on hospital admissions do not yet show a strong rise. But if we reach 100,000 positive cases per day it seems inconceivable that there will not be a significant extra burden on the health service.
@theotherjonv - might be of value to your modelling...
Ms Sturgeon highlighted the impact of vaccination on hospitalisations, saying that back in January, almost 13% of people testing positive were being admitted into hospital within 14 days. By June that had fallen to 3%.
it's not my modelling, but if that number's right 100K cases would be 3000 admissions per day.
Personally - I can't see the case increase rate continuing at that rate, we didn't get there in W2 and almost feels like there can't be that many people left to infect (although reinfections and potential for vaxxed people to be infected even if outcome is not as serious means there probably are......)
Although also the reason we didn't get that high in W2 was because we put brakes on, not took them off
If cases get that high it will make the decisions in holidays easy. No other country in the world will let us in.
Then Boris can stand there and say it wasn't my decision to not let you go
I might be getting this wrong but isn't the height of summer a good time to be getting any inevitable hospitalisations as the NHS is at a naturally lower level of bed occupancy, rather than waiting to overwhelm it again in the winter?
After all, it is almost certain everyone will eventually catch the virus so timing of any hospitalisations is the important part.
The more we get infected through this period the less will be infected through the winter as they'll have already had it and built a stronger immunity to it.
so timing of any hospitalisations is the important part. The more we get infected through this period the less will be infected through the winter as they’ll have already had it and built a stronger immunity to it.
Partly - you are right that hospitalizations are higher in winter and so the NHS can potentially carry a higher load due to other reasons in the summer.
But i don't think it can take 3000 hospitalizations per day, that's 17.5% of the total capacity per week and although there will be discharges too, that is not absorbable for long in winter or summer. That's total; normal occupancy level is around 85% so that could swamp the spare capacity in a week. Although when covid hit last year and non-emergency / elective work was cancelled the freed up beds went to 35% so 2 weeks of 3000/d hospitalization.
Before considering that the workforce also needs to avoid another crisis. And before considering that we really don't want to get into more cancellation of work that needs doing.
https://www.nuffieldtrust.org.uk/resource/hospital-bed-occupancy#background
Had to provide a negative lateral flow test for an event last week with exceptional security. That despite meeting someone who’s already had it. I imagine the 600k missing lateral flow tests is the difference between ordered and registered used (at some known run rate).
I cannot imagine for a moment that the date will come forward. Get it wrong and Jarvid is labelled immediately with his first decision. Don’t change it and nothing happens.
There are no crowds outside my house. Poor Chris. Just appalling behaviour. On the positive side, someone approached me last week and put their hand on my shoulder at lunch after above event and just said thank you. I was humbled.
Yeh, yeh. I still haven't forgiven you for taking a day off 😉
Yeh, yeh. I still haven’t forgiven you for taking a day off 😉
Stand outside his house shouting "shame on you"?
Exactly 12 weeks since my first AZ jag, but nothing from Grampian Heath for either myself or Mrs DB. Just moved to Tobermory, rang the doctor’s surgery today and got appointments for Thursday. Bit freaked out by the complete lack of social distancing at times.
I imagine the 600k missing lateral flow tests is the difference between ordered and registered used
I get through a fair number. I only register the ones that I'm legally required to take. I suspect many other people do the same.
Once you've done one the leaflet goes in the bin and there's nothing to remind you to report the result.
Yeh, yeh. I still haven’t forgiven you for taking a day off 😉
Well aside from the day job and some covid sums, I’ve be also been freelancing on the side. These were both mine too:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/tennis/57574896
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/athletics/57568947
Had my Third jab today as part of the Cov-Boost trial. Well probably anyway, as I’ve a 25% chance of placebo.
The sneaky nurse knew I was a vaccinator, and would be able to recognise the syringes/vaccine colours so blindfolded me!! Does that make it a triple blind trial??
Nice 🙂
I'm not understanding the missing tests "scandal"?
We've issued millions of them. Not all of them have been used yet. We have 3 packs in the house for the kids.
Worrying figures for Manchester reported on the BBC. Be interesting what impact long covid has on life expectancy in the years ahead too.
BBC News - Covid death rate 25% higher in Greater Manchester - report
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-57658479
That despite meeting someone who’s already had it. I imagine the 600k missing lateral flow tests is the difference between ordered and registered used.
I for one have forgotten to register a few of mine, and I know the family have too.
I also know we've a small pile of boxes in the cupboard - we had mini_oab at school, middle_oab at college, mrs_oab at nurseries and I meet my staff who are all in school. We do 2x tests a week each, and so when we get tests we get more than a few.
I also know my father got a box, but only took one test in advance of meeting the family a few weeks back. I assume the rest in the box will be unused.
Does that make it a triple blind trial??
Nice.
I have family working in the NHS who are also part of the trial. They just kept their eyes closed. You can’t trust everyone though, can you…
🙈
https://twitter.com/SkyNewsBreak/status/1409808926552596481
Reading the room again.
Translation: Our donors have been whining about having to quarantine after going on 'business' trips to coincidentally sunny places.
Latest from the red tops (apologies if I've missed it earlier) - from freedom day, close contacts of cases won't have to isolate if they have been double jabbed.
Does that make it a triple blind trial??
Blinded means patient doesn’t know
Single blind means patient and investigators don’t know
Double blind means patient, investigators and sponsor doesn’t know.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blinded_experiment
There are a lot of SOPs on blinding trials for pivotal work. Academic and real world evidence trials may be less rigorous. A matched placebo would normally be supplied, and often an on site pharmacist will be unblinded to make up the treatments. but in this case I imagine it is just a saline injection in a standard syringe.
Based on natural infection boosts to antibodies, I think we probably know what we will see.