Or you could have followed a more sensible approach like Sweden has, which will ultimately lead to better results
It hasn't so far
Its led to much much worse results
How many deaths are you willing to gamble on?
In fact the very opposite is true, you're twice as likely to survive & come out of hospital in the second wave as you were in the 1st wave, better care pathway & some proven drug regimes that weren't established 6 months ago
kelvin
Full Member
Any chance of some regional graphs including today’s figures @TiRed ? Specifically North of England regions? It’s looking worrying at first glance with ignorant eyes. Ta.
Here's the top 100 as of today if that's any use to you. Sorted 7 days per 100k.
[img] 
[/img]
It hasn’t so far
Its led to much much worse results
I suggest looking at some stats and checking out Worldometers today. On any objective criteria Sweden has done better than the UK. And as a bonus their Q2 GDP was down about 8.6% wheras the UK was 19.6% IIRC.
But then your weird personal obsession with locking down as hard as possible
You misunderstand. That is what I want to avoid. I think even the measures we have taken now were avoidable. But we’ve squandered the summer, and are sleepwalking towards a situation where late action will mean more restrictions for longer, sadly. We shouldn’t have to lock down, it is the last gasp act of failure when you haven’t managed to control the virus through other measures.
It hasn’t so far
Its led to much much worse results
As I understand it, Sweden's measures have produced better results than ours? Albeit not as good as it's neighbours who went in harder.
Have you ever been to Denmark? Their social distancing is better in normal times than in any other country I've been to, and better than on the cafe terraces of my local town this week. 🙁
I have the Scottish app. Apart from work (school) I have done nothing outwith the house for 4 weeks(wrecked my knee) only been to supermarket once 25/10. Sunday night I was flagged as contact on the app now in isolation. Last contact with infected phone Thursday only place I saw people was work. I've distanced and cut down on social things because my parents are 80. On Thursday my phone was left in the car in a car park. This, I think, is the contact but still it's 14 days isolation. So my Oct holiday gone. I tested negative yesterday. Lots of people were worried about what's happened to me happening. There has been one positive in town last week I know who it is although and I know I don't know them nor have spent any time in their company.
I suggest looking at some stats and checking out Worldometers today. On any objective criteria Sweden has done better than the UK. And as a bonus their Q2 GDP was down about 8.6% wheras the UK was 19.6% IIRC.
As we have 2nd highest death rate in Europe & worst economic hit? that's hardly a claim to fame!
You can only compare to nordic neigbbours, with similar demographics, population density and transport connectedness
Unemployment was slightly better
https://voxeu.org/article/labour-market-effects-covid-19-sweden-and-its-neighbours
Sweden's official statistics agency said that Sweden's GDP fell by 8.6% in Q2.
In comparison, Finland's statistics body said that its Q2 GDP was down 3.2%, and Denmark's said GDP there was down 7.4%.
Norway's GDP also appears to have fallen less than Sweden's, though its measurements are out of sync with other nations. Its GDP fell 7.1% from March to May, a timeframe one month
deaths per million
Sweden 582
Denmark 114
Finland 62
Norway 51
UK 624
Germany 115
And it's a myth that they didn't lockdown at all
They just weren't as strict at enforcing it, secondary schools & FE were online only
People did stop traveling & commuting,
https://citymapper.com/cmi/stockholm
And Sweden are tightening restrictions as cases rise again
Including quarantine measures they didn't adopt in 1st wave
You can only compare to nordic neigbbours, with similar demographics, population density and transport connectedness
And how much do those factor influence virus transmission? Not very much. Now compare Scandinavian countries in terms of things know influence virus density in the UK and other countries:
Poverty: Sweden has a poverty problem that's masked by the generally high standards of living. It has it's very own housing crisis with its very own ghetos. Norway is a super rich oil state. Google "Norway housing ghetos" and you'll get results about hos the super rich in Norway have adopted certain parts of Oslo that have become "golden ghetos". Google "Sweden housing ghetos" and you'll get results about what you'd expect, concentrations of people living in conditions that favour disease transmission.
Social habits: People were quick to point out that the French, Italian and Spanish are more likely to transmit because they are more tactile. Denmark is the opposite. In different cultures people maintain a distance with others they feel comfortable with. Denmark is the place I've been where that distance is greatest, they are the opposite of in your face. Swedes are more normal in my experience. Crossing from Germany to Denmark is surprising, you go from brightly painted town centres with oompa bands playing, people sitting around drinking beer and kids playing. Then arrive in Denmark which is painted grey, very calm, if you see people sitting on a cafe terrace they're probably older and drinking coffee. Google something like "cafe culture Denmark" and "cafe culture Sweden" and compare the image results.
You may well have a point edukator
But a 10 fold difference in death rates, will not just be down to the difference in cafe culture & at least try and give us some quantifiable evidence!
Here's some:
Sweden has the highest proportion of single occupancy households in Europe
https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-eurostat-news/-/DDN-20170905-1
My anecdotal input is that my wife worked on Oslo and I visited a few timed, its certainly smaller than Stockholm but the differrnces are not that big, socialising, cafe, bar culture seemed very similar, they are big drinkers, despite the price!
A d for all their light touch (which has been overstated) they have not seen an economic benefit
A d for all their light touch (which has been overstated) they have not seen an economic benefit
Q2 2020
Norway -7.1% GDP ex oil
Sweeden -8.6% GDP
UK -19.6%
Germany -9.7% (edit: or -10.1%)
I think the fairest comparison for Sweden is with Germany on both Covid (it's done worse) and economics (it's doen slightly better). Germany also has a high proportion of single households, I linked it a few pages back, but it also has Sonnenallee and the equivelent of in many cities.
The problem is as you lot, and maybe Boris and chums debate how other countries are doing we carry on sleep walking into a disaster. It doesnt matter about then or that country, what matters is here and now and measures to slow the virus do not appear to be working, and yesterdays hospital admissions are deeply worrying.
So on deaths Sweden have done 5x worse than Germany
I'm not sure that's looking too great
Germany also has 10x the population density of Sweden & they were much closer to the epicentre of Italian ski resorts & connected by a great many more transport routes
They did however start checking incoming flights for ill passengers in February and filled out testing among the earliest in Europe
I agree with that, Kimbers, except one detail. As a proportion of the population there were as many Swedes, Danes and Norwegians in Ischgl as Germans.
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/24/europe/austria-ski-resort-ischgl-coronavirus-intl/index.html
Edit to save you reading the lot:
The most recent available Danish government figures show that out of more than 1,400 cases in Denmark, 298 contracted the virus in Austria. In comparison, only 61 cases are linked to travel to Italy, so far the hardest-hit country in Europe.
One thing that may interest you AA, is that in Sweden kids with mild symptoms (runny nose, light cough) are expected to stay off school for two days. Part of their measures to try and keep kids in school, and avoid having to send more home. The new measures, including extra testing for kids, started when the new term started. And in Germany they have dedicated walk in test centres for kids, with one hour turn around for results… again, aimed at helping keep infected kids out of schools, and keep schools open.
I’m in 100% agreement with AA here. I had the unfortunate necessity to travel into London on Monday with two observations; people are getting away without wearing masks, distancing or cleanliness wherever they can and there is nowhere near enough people about to touch the service economy in a positive way.
Therefore, continued messaging about freedoms and trust of the public with the added bonus of propping up the economy is a dismal failure.
Kids and teachers are immune Kelvin, we dont need that! My other half only got it because she works at a private school and isnt qualified so therefore the magic didnt work.
And yet as recently as July Institut Pasteur, the US and UK authroites were saying kids don't transmit the virus:
It was bollocks, we knew it was bollocks (read back to July on this thread) and that's one of things that has helped the virus most: disinformation.
In France we were told masks were useless (despite hospital staff protesting about shortages) and now they are obligatory almost everywhere indoors. But kids under 10 stil don't have to wear them. We'll get there eventually.
Edit: A-A spnet less time typing a shorter post and got in quicker.
Or you could have followed a more sensible approach like Sweden has, which will ultimately lead to better results. But then your weird personal obsession with locking down as hard as possible wouldn’t allow that, would it?
Sweden is an awkward one. Their Covid policy is vaguely successful (~6,000 deaths) but must be taken in relation to their developed welfare state. For most Swedes getting Covid doesn't mean a devastating financial blow, hence they're very likely to self-isolate for the full required period. People may wish to bang on about "freedom" from lockdown and masks in Sweden but ultimately what they're celebrating is universal healthcare, job security, childcare, and unemployment benefit. Stick that on the front page of the Daily Express.
Swedish cities are (mostly!) safe for cyclists which means that workers weren't forced onto overcrowded public transport at the peak of the outbreak. Compare this to UK cities where the best that was achieved was a lane or two coned off from traffic.
Interestingly they did experience a very similar problem in care homes that we did along with disproportionate impact on minorities, and that was associated with in part to a gig economy and relative poverty.
The general population in the UK is too stupid (see Brexit, pubs at closing time, beaches in the summer...) to be relied upon to apply social distancing or mask wearing appropriately.
In terms of admissions and deaths, we appear to be getting close to the point in mid-March when we were dithering over restrictions in England and asking people if they wouldn't mind awfully not going to the pub. Any chance the government will have learned anything from our experiences back then?*
*rhetorical question.
*rhetorical question
The one I wanted to ask. It very much feels like the North of England is already at that point... hence hoping for some regional graphs from TiRed... as I'm hoping a calm rational look at the regional data will show my feelings to be misplaced (or premature). I sure as hell don't want a "lock down" around here... but current measures don't look like enough to prevent that blunt instrument having to be wielded before Xmas. And, yes, any further restrictions need to be paired with financial help from the government for businesses and eduction bodies effected... but so would a lock down... let's act now and avoid the more socially and financially damaging action being needed later.
Government rep* apparently on the telly this morning saying that while the admissions for Covid+ people were rising, perhaps quite a few of them weren't being admitted for Covid problems, but other stuff.
So it seems that a fair chunk of our political elite are desperately twisting the data to fit into whatever delusional bubble they have constructed to avoid lockdown. Cabinet is divided, so the result will be paralysis.
Also it's only happening to northern shitholes, so that's a few more days of not giving a stuff, really.
*Ah, I see that Liz Truss is trending, so that makes sense.
https://twitter.com/EdBish18/status/1313743103707303936
ScotGov announcement coming at 3pm, looking like some further restrictions for central belt, be interesting to see where go with it. Finance minister had previously admitted that they wouldn't/couldn't shut pubs without Westminster support package, we're already not mixing households, it doesn't leave a lot to go on.
Act now, I agree, but how?
I'd mask primary school kids for a start. Because there's still headline bollocks about young kids not being a problem. Even an article correctly claiming only 14.3% of school clusters are in primary schools and 5.9% in pre-school fails to note that in terms of numbers in each age group that's not far off proportional and the difference can easily be attributed to the amount of out of school socialising in each age group:
And I'd ban over 65s from restaurants and pubs, because they're dominant in the restaurants in their large social groups without masks in these parts and they're the ones most likely to clog up the hospitals. Let them eat Uber!
If it's acceptable to ban under 18s from pubs I don't see a problem with banning over 65s form eating on the premises. But is a government with a peer group of old codgers and an ageing electorate prepared to do that? No chance. Measures aren't about pragmatism, they're about pandering to voters.
hence hoping for some regional graphs from TiRed
@kelvin - is there nothing on the travellingtabby site?
I caught 5 minutes of Liz Truss on Radio 4
I dont think she answered a single question in an intelligible way, asking her to justify the 10pm closing was almost as pointless as asking Dyson to square his Brexit stance with the damage it was doing to business 10 minutes earlier
is there nothing on the travellingtabby site
There's lots on there. I can see lots of worrying data for up here... what I'd really like is the man who can put that data into context for us... he's good at taking the edge off people (including me) reading too much into the data.
The problem in the UK is that anything short of a complete blanket lockdown just won't be taken seriously by a lot of people - mixed messaging, no end goal, boredom and frustration after all these months, plus lack of financial support means there is no carrot to encourage people to "do the right thing", and there's no way of enforcing the rules by "the stick" either. Breaking the rules hasn't been effectively punished from the start as the Police don't have the manpower and they were undermined by Cummings.
Short of some sort of "coup" to replace Boris and this shower of a cabinet, I can't see how anyone can stand up and say "right, we've cocked up, we need to tackle this properly and we need to do X,y and z" which is what I think is needed
The problem in the UK is that anything short of a complete blanket lockdown just won’t be taken seriously by a lot of people – mixed messaging, no end goal, boredom and frustration after all these months, plus lack of financial support means there is no carrot to encourage people to “do the right thing”, and there’s no way of enforcing the rules by “the stick” either. Breaking the rules hasn’t been effectively punished from the start as the Police don’t have the manpower and they were undermined by Cummings.
Short of some sort of “coup” to replace Boris and this shower of a cabinet, I can’t see how anyone can stand up and say “right, we’ve cocked up, we need to tackle this properly and we need to do X,y and z” which is what I think is needed
Can't say I disagree with you.
In my opinion, and based on my own experiences apart from the odd rule change / clarification here and there, the Covid regs we have now, are pretty much how things will be until Spring / Vaccinations.
Numbers are rising, but they're numbers the NHS can handle, they're also well below 'worst case' estimates.
Could the UK do more to save lives? Oh yes, we're not nearly making the sacrifices needed to avoid the winter surge and inevitable deaths, but as you say the appetite just isn't there for lock-down anymore.
Even the most vocal supporters of lock down I know, are total hypocrites, they only want restrictions that don't effect them personally, or more likely only stick to the rules they want to. Everyone's got an excuse, everyone's got a reason why they can break the rules, most don't think they're breaking them "really".
I think if Westminster or local Gov tried to take us back to where we were in April with deserted roads, closed schools, pubs, shops etc there would be wholesale social disobedience, especially now the economic costs are starting to show.
Back in April there was the idea the virus could be errdicated as SARS1 had been and as the Chinese were seen to be doing, sort off. I don't think anyone believes in erradiacation without a vaccine now and many don't even believe in that given the probability of mutation.
People now know that lockdowns reduce numbers but don't eliminate the virus because there are still people moving around to maintain spread. So many people are invloved in essential services that even the most severe lockdown has littel chance of eliminating the virus.
At best we'll maintain the virus at a manageable level, and the higher the level of normality we allow the more the virus will circulate.
Measures that people will accept need to demonstrably limit spread without unacceptable economic damage. Which is why I fail to see the problme with masking young school kids. Zero economic cost to mask them, very easy to enforce, kid takes mask off, parents called.
Numbers are rising, but they’re numbers the NHS can handle
Can you show your working out on this?
Back in April there was the idea the virus could be errdicated as SARS1 had been and as the Chinese were seen to be doing, sort off. I don’t think anyone believes in erradiacation without a vaccine now and many don’t even believe in that given the probability of mutation.
Was SARS ever eradicated? My understanding is that it just evolved to be a better virus, aka one that doesn't kill it's host and is still 'doing the rounds' as a minor illness.
As for COVID19. I personally don't think it will ever be eradicated, even when the vaccine comes. my believe is that we'll vaccinate our way out of more deaths by early next year. We'll vaccinate for it again Winter 21/22 but only vulnerable people, by then they might even be able to roll it into the flu vaccine. It will continue to kill people, but at a much lower level, like Flu and others cold-like virus do now and we'll have to learn to accept that as part of 'Life and Death' as we do now.
Can you show your working out on this?
Not really, I occasionally read my Wife's NHS daily covid report thing, we're not concerned about running out of beds, here anyway, like we were back in March.
Local testing centre here has closed, lack of use!.
Was SARS ever eradicated?
Yes.
I’m starting to feel that I’m expected to get it & take my chances.
I’m too young for a flu jab or vaccine (46) fit(ish) and Otherwise healthy.
My job is considered Key Worker when they want me to work, but not important enough to qualify for vaccination.
So come the spring, after doing all the right things to get us through winter to a hopeful vaccine, I won’t be allowed a jab. As everything opens up I’ll be the most at risk age not to get a vaccine.
Marvellous.
Can you show your working out on this?
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
/blockquote>How does any of that show that the nhs isnt going to be overwhelmed this winter?
500 admissions yesterday, two-week doubling time (or less) puts us at 2000 admissions/day in a month. Sadly, about 1/7 of those admissions will die, so 300 deaths/day. I can't see past a lockdown come half-term. Maybe for two weeks as a circuit-breaker to help get us to Christmas.
I’m starting to feel that I’m expected to get it & take my chances.
I’m too young for a flu jab or vaccine (46) fit(ish) and Otherwise healthy.My job is considered Key Worker when they want me to work, but not important enough to qualify for vaccination.
So come the spring, after doing all the right things to get us through winter to a hopeful vaccine, I won’t be allowed a jab. As everything opens up I’ll be the most at risk age not to get a vaccine.
Marvellous.
You can mitigate some of the risk by paying for a Flu jab, if only to remove the risk of having Covid and Flu at the same time, which sounds like a recipe for disaster if I ever heard one.
I have one every year, I've had Flu twice and it's horrible.
Mine was £13, Lloyds near me are doing walk-ins at the moment.
Is it me, or has Sunetra Gupta been on Radio4 every single day? There must be someone else who can offer the "balance" position of letting the virus rip for them? Or perhaps some nuanced discussion occasionally might be preferable.
Back in April there was the idea the virus could be errdicated as SARS1 had been and as the Chinese were seen to be doing, sort off. I don’t think anyone believes in erradiacation without a vaccine now and many don’t even believe in that given the probability of mutation.
People now know that lockdowns reduce numbers but don’t eliminate the virus because there are still people moving around to maintain spread. So many people are invloved in essential services that even the most severe lockdown has littel chance of eliminating the virus.
Australia has gone from a 7 day average of 500 to 15 in 2 months, using the strict lockdown imposed in Victoria. Will be interesting to see what happens there as the restrictions are relaxed.
You can mitigate some of the risk by paying for a Flu jab
No Flu "jabs" available up here for at risk kids. Once again this year, we got the letter, booked, turned up, and were turned away from the GP provided clinic. Then chased after a pharmacist provided one... no joy. On the Boots waiting list, and keep checking back with Lloyds and GP... weeks away at best, they say.
I can’t see past a lockdown come half-term.
Damn. Succinct but clear.
I still think it'll be more local restrictions only... despite that clearly not working (whether that is because the "unfair" local rules aren't taken seriously, or because we are a highly mobile population)... and despite the government not having the data or means to succeed with that kind of flexible approach that they're trying to pursue. I think they'll stick to it as long as they can, with a national "lockdown" being avoided at all cost. North of England hospitals are going to be much busier than people expect in two weeks time... but the government won't go for a national response unless London is hit in a similar way.
I can’t see past a lockdown come half-term.
English half term I presume? Some Scots schools (East coast) have been off since last friday.
