I can't wait for the forum to dig into the mathematical nitty-gritty of the pitfalls of exponential vs sub-exponential disease forecasting. I feel this is what this place was made for. 🙂
Who the **** goes looking on a cycling forum for facts about a highly contagious virus?
However, it is not breaking the forum rules or givi
Fair enough...you must be kept busy enough with the "old and sick should just die" brigade
Who the **** goes looking on a cycling forum for facts about a highly contagious virus?
Who looks on Facebook or Twitter? People come here for all sorts of stuff, and there are often people with first-hand experience or genuine knowledge. For example, the person today posting from Italy who could say what lockdown actually meant...useful, helpful, first-hand knowledge.
People making up mortality forecasts from something their Nan heard in the shop...not so much
I'd suggest the best you can hope for is opinion.
People making up mortality forecasts from something their Nan heard in the shop…not so much
Please indicate exactly what you think I’m making up.
Unfortunately some people don’t have the intelligence to see what is coming, even though it is happening right now in Italy, I suspect you’ll have a different opinion in a couple of weeks when we are in Italy’s situation.
Please indicate exactly what you think I’m making up.
Unfortunately some people don’t have the intelligence to see what is coming, even though it is happening right now in Italy, I suspect you’ll have a different opinion in a couple of weeks when we are in Italy’s situation.
Ok.
You're making up the UK being Italy. It's not.
You're making up cases no-one knows about in Italy to explain why its worse there than here, or south Korea or China.
You're making up a trend that doesn't exist.
You're making up that you're better at this than PHE, WHO the NHS and all the people who really do have the intelligence and the data to see what's coming.
Looking at Italy should at least make people take this seriously & follow any guidelines issued.
Number of free ICU beds is a complete red herring, as any plan will include re-purposing, prioritisation, private beds, etc.
Suspected case in a school here in Cardiff. If confirmed, my wife might be WFH for two weeks cos she works with lots of people who are related to the school.
Looking at Italy should at least make people take this seriously & follow any guidelines issued.
Number of free ICU beds is a complete red herring, as any plan will include re-purposing, prioritisation, private beds, etc
Couldn't agree more
Ok.
You’re making up the UK being Italy. It’s not.
You’re making up cases no-one knows about in Italy to explain why its worse there than here, or south Korea or China.
You’re making up a trend that doesn’t exist.
You’re making up that you’re better at this than PHE, WHO the NHS and all the people who really do have the intelligence and the data to see what’s coming.
Specifically what am I making up, your comments above are just a load of vague waffle
Looking at Italy should at least make people take this seriously & follow any guidelines issued.
Number of free ICU beds is a complete red herring, as any plan will include re-purposing, prioritisation, private beds, etc.
I’m sure we will be able to rustle up a few more spare beds, but people aren’t going to stop having heart attacks, road accidents, strokes etc. so they won’t be able to free up all of the 4000 ICU beds we have.
Italy is already overwhelmed. Another 168 dying today. They haven’t got enough ICU beds to cope with this.
Considering how many urgent cancer ops get cancelled due to lack of ICU beds, I'm not sure there's extra slack in the system
I found this informative if you have the time to listen to it.
Specifically what am I making up, your comments above are just a load of vague waffle
Okie dokie...
You’re making up the UK being Italy. It’s not.
An approx 10x growth in a week, if that continues we’ll be in Italy’s position in less than 2 weeks.
Only we're not Italy, if we were we'd be in the same position now, since the first case was the same day. Which leads us to..
You’re making up cases no-one knows about in Italy to explain why its worse there than here, or south Korea or China.
The likely reason for that is Italy missed a lot of cases initially and have done a fraction of the testing Korea has done. Although the numbers of cases is similar to Korea, deaths are much higher which would imply they are a few weeks further into their outbreak and actually have far more cases than their tests show
Only no one knows about these cases, except you, unless...
You’re making up a trend that doesn’t exist.
As it takes 2-6 weeks to “recover”, they have more recoveries as their outbreak has been running longer.
Ah, so a recovery time which should be global by your maths is massively better in Italy [where they're all doomed] than south Korea [where everything is rosy.]
You’re making up that you’re better at this than PHE, WHO the NHS and all the people who really do have the intelligence and the data to see what’s coming
Anyone else believe the government have got their strategy really wrong on this...
...China have shown this can be contained, so why aren’t we doing the same. The sooner we act aggressively the more easily it can be stopped with less disruption and less death/suffering.
I just popped in to Morrisons on the way home for a couple of odds and sods and the couple in front of me at the checkout had a whole trolley full of UHT milk. Literally gallons of it!
Thick as ****ing mince!
Please indicate exactly what you think I’m making up.
Your 10% death rate..show me one expert who thinks that there will be a 10% death rate?
10% requiring ICU.
No ICU, no life.
A situation best avoided.
Only we’re not Italy, if we were we’d be in the same position now, since the first case was the same day. Which leads us to..
You want to look at the chart which overlays the case growth of all the european countries, you do.
I just popped in to Morrisons on the way home for a couple of odds and sods and the couple in front of me at the checkout had a whole trolley full of UHT milk. Literally gallons of it!
Thick as ****ing mince!
One of my neighbours has been doing that for months with milk, flour, eggs and other dried goods but of course they do own a cafe. I’d can imagine it would look like a panic buy to anyone passing by on their high horse.
You want to look at the chart which overlays the case growth of all the european countries, you do.
So, given case 1 in both the UK and Italy it's the same day, how are we 13.5 days behind Italy if the growth rate is broadly similar?
I'm no fields medal winner but, if I take a number X and increase it by a factor Y 39 times to get Z, no matter how many times I do that, if X and Y are the same i'll get the same value of Z.
Drac - who’d go to a cafe that served UHT milk? I think this guy had the last word on that...
"Milk gets sour y'know. Unless it's UHT milk, but no-one drinks that... because its shite!"
10% requiring ICU
Fair enough if 10% in italy require ventilation... That is significantly higher then the number which is being quoted everywhere else however, which is 5% classed as serious and 2/3rds of those require ventilation. Still not great though I'll admit.
That said..it's 10% of known cases. I'd be staggered if the real number of infection is anywhere near as low as 9000. That's only 0.015% of the population...Or around 1 in every 7000 people. Some folks have said it could be closer to 10 times that number who are infected, which would tie in with fact so many folks returning from Italy have caught it.
So, given case 1 in both the UK and Italy it’s the same day, how are we 13.5 days behind Italy if the growth rate is broadly similar?
Because the first case reported in the country is not necessarily the start of the spread - with such a very low number, if cases are successfully detected early enough and contacts traced it could be stopped from spreading. Look at the case rate in the UK - a few isolated cases, then only later does the number start to rise.
Upshot of the above - the UK got lucky with it’s first few cases, Italy did not.
Line the graphs up to the start of the “rise”, not the first case and they look like the linked graphs.
Drac – who’d go to a cafe that served UHT milk? I think this guy had the last word on that…
“Milk gets sour y’know. Unless it’s UHT milk, but no-one drinks that… because its shite!”
B&Bs love a bit of UHT but yes Pat was right.
More likely than cafe ownership.....
Britains moron threat level raised from moderate to severe
And in 5 years time they’ll still have 2 cupboards completely full of UHT milk
The UK population as a cohort is different to other countries - hygiene habits, travel patterns, level of contact with elderly relatives etc and healthcare systems vary hugely in their ability to case find and treat.
There are several places where the level of contagion and spread in the UK can be monitored to give an indication of the likely impact here. I’ve two schools locally where some of the first infections in the UK were picked up 9 days ago and public health are monitoring for any further cases. 5 days is the peak for incubation so it’s interesting and so far reassuring there hasn’t been a local spike of confirmed cases here yet. Both schools have reopened this week BTW.
All the local public health Drs I’ve talked to recently are doing what they have spent years training to do (as long as any other hospital consultant) and taking a measured and data driven approach which will inform their advice to schools, employers, hospitals etc to slow the spread down as best as possible; in part a standard approach to an epidemic and an iterative one.
I'm looking forward to the episode of jackass where they intentionally catch the virus to see how bad it is
Re. The numbers in the U.K., it takes 24-48hrs for a test rest doesn't it? So mondays and today's numbers are largely based on tests done over the weekend. I expect fewer people get tested over the weekend, so we might see larger up spike tomorrow
I'm quietly and mildly panicking- not really for myself but for relatives who are older / have health issues. There is a case in my parents village. Am working at home more and going to pubs/cafes less! Would happily have a bit of enforced lock down - especially as the weather forecast is nice for next week!
How’s anyone going to enforce any kind of lockdown in this country?
We’ve had successive governments for decades telling us theirs no such thing as society, it’s all about the individual and you can do whatever you want, whenever you want. It’s your birthright
Good luck with telling everyone they need to stay in the house for the next couple of weeks.
Never going to happen. Not when the pubs are open. And if they shut all the Spoons the country will be in flames in minutes
We also seem to have a government that doesn’t really seem particularly arsed about any of this
Particularly as we seem to have a government that doesn’t really seem that arsed about any of this
It's known as the Eton Care Pathway or Eton Spaff for short.
Good luck with telling everyone they need to stay in the house for the next couple of weeks.
Never going to happen
Are you suggesting it will follow the Brexit trajectory, half the people do half don't the half that do get a bit hacked off and decide 80:20 are odds they like. Suddenly it's sod it we'll damn well infect and have done.
I'd hope we'd have a bit more sense that that. Although I'm a bit concerned the sheer relentless tedium of stand up and go again again again will be tough on people. Maybe it's time operation Be Nice Say Hi and we experiment with 'nice days' on the forum. Long disruption isnt going to be good for the general national mental health.
I’ve said before if it becomes a Pandemic it’ll reduce cynicism in the UK by 50% in a year through Darwinism.
Re. The numbers in the U.K., it takes 24-48hrs for a test rest doesn’t it?
Brother Pondo went skiing in Northern Italy at half term and came back feeling ill - called 111 on the 1st of March, got swabbed last Monday, got the all clear on Thursday.
Just stepping outside of our bog rolls and pasta cretinocracy for a minute.
Has anyone done any forecasting or modelling of what happens if this hits sub saharan africa in a big way?
Crowded cities and towns, large numbers of people immuno suppressed by diet, conditions or HIV etc. Poorer testing and care services than Europe into the bargain.
Just a thought...
It's 20 odd degrees in Tangiers all week, I'd imagine if we're hoping to get to summer to suppress the virus, and mid 20's is typical summer weather here, then they should be okay?.
I can highly recommend a 1 hour 29 minute interview with Michael Osterholm on Joe Rogan (YouTube).
Key points
# virus spreads before symptoms appear
# 1 to 2% mortality rate likely (iirc)
# 3-7 months of spreading of the virus from now on
# obese people will be hit harder so bigger impact on the US from a mortality rate perspective.
# warmer weather will not stop the spread (see MERS, whichever is the camel one , eg it was hot in Egypt when spreading ).
Michael T. Osterholm is a public health scientist and a biosecurity and infectious disease expert in the United States.[1] Osterholm is the director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP) at the University of Minnesota and a Regents Professor, the McKnight Presidential Endowed Chair in Public Health, a Distinguished Teaching Professor in the Division of Environmental Health Sciences, School of Public Health, a professor in the Technological Leadership Institute, College of Science and Engineering, and an adjunct professor in the University of Minnesota Medical School,[2] all at the University of Minnesota.[3] He is also on the Board of Regents at Luther College in Decorah, Iowa.[4]
Has anyone done any forecasting or modelling of what happens if this hits sub saharan africa in a big way?
The median age in Italy is 45.
In parts of Africa it’s 19.
I don’t know what that means about the survivability of this but it perhaps suggests it won’t affect 3rd world countries as disproportionately as you might be imagining.
The importance of doing everything we can to flatten the curve is highlighted. If your health service is overwhelmed, mortality goes up sharply.
https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1237442793242591234
Health minister tested positive.
Really?!
That's shocking.
Nadine Dorries was given a ministerial job?
So presumably Matt Hancock and whoever sat on the front benches near her will need to self-isolate as well?
watching the Cheltenham Festival on TV today (not extensively, just on in the bar I popped into) and I'm thinking UK has no real concept of behaving differently, until it's too late.
Really?!
Yes. And even if you think she’s a bit of an idiot politically, she was a nurse, so not ignorant when it comes to staying safe as regards this.
until it’s too late
That looks like the government policy.
She's 62... Might not be pleasant depending upon her general health.
Surreal stuff.
