Kelvin the system is not designed to test everyone.
Yes, I know. But it was sold to the public as part of a raft of measures that allowed us to open up, and for people not to need support to isolate or social distance. That some seek to use it that way is the fault of the government. We need to support people and companies where there has been a positive case to isolate/close. And then… education… it is time to reset the government spin about getting back to normal, and use rotas and social distancing to stop the spread. Our testing system (as it is, not as it was promised) will not stop the spread, our actions will.
So based on the information from Dominic Cummings
FTFY
If the situation hasn’t already escalated to a bigger lockdown before then
I'm a bit bemused by the reaction TBH. With news of the NHS about to fail, soaring numbers and pending lockdowns, why is this seemingly a bigger deal that the initial spike? We went into that even less prepared than we are now and the NHS coped, masks and PPE eventually arrived, people got educated, and the number dropped to small amounts.
Today, despite the press/government failings we have the education and at least some preparedness and surely are at a far greater advantage than March of this year?
Matt Hancock is back on the radio using the “Covid Secure” phrase about education again.
Oh, and giggle about the testing problem being because tests are free.
Regards testing for kids
The government's app data shows that children have a completely different mix of symptoms from adults
top five symptoms in school aged children who test positive for COVID are; fatigue (55%) headache (53%), fever (49%), sore throat (38%) and loss of appetite (35%).
This was different compared to the App’s data on adults; fatigue (87%), headache (72%), loss of smell (60%), persistent cough (54%) and sore throat (49%).
In addition to this, research from the app has also found that one in six (15%) children who test positive for COVID also present with an unusual skin rash.
A cough is way down the list of kids symptoms, but it's driving a lot of the test demand as that what the government say is a symptom
I see the hapless and hopeless zahawi has been wheeled out on QT to represent the clown circus.
At least Fiona Bruce refused to let him get away with constantly repeating his 250,000 tests a day bullshit, pointing out that while that may be some theoretical capacity, due to the utter shambles of its point-of-delivery there are actually nowhere near that amount of people being tested, so just stop saying it.
I've reached the point now where I don't think Matt Hancock is lying. I think he's actually existing in some weird sort of alternative reality. A waking fantasy where everything is going really well
When you say school aged is that up to 18? Are we saying an 18 year olds symptoms are different from adults?
Blaming poarents for looking out for coughs and fevers is not fair. .gov should be able to come up with proper advice and crucially have enough testing available testing for that advice. Currently the advice is muddled and the testing availability doesnt match up to that muddled advice.
That some seek to use it that way is the fault of the government. We need to support people and companies where there has been a positive case to isolate/close. And then… education… it is time to reset the government spin about getting back to normal, and use rotas and social distancing to stop the spread. Our testing system (as it is, not as it was promised) will not stop the spread, our actions will.
I know a vote of no confidence in the government will fail, but some discussion around that, and asking MPs to justify voting to support this utter shambles might be interesting.
Today, despite the press/government failings we have the education and at least some preparedness and surely are at a far greater advantage than March of this year?
I think you're probably right. Ignore the top layer of the Muppet show and thousands of public services employees and private businesses have been lining up preparation and planning for round 2.
In Scotland we have a fairly clear middle of October through to December as peak to plan for, a message coming down from government.
My worry is a combination of a peak worse than round 1 and the top layer of Muppets having diverted funds into dead ends and poorly performing projects (see the testing failures for an example). The nurse in the ward, teacher in school or council waste manager (etc) can't work with what they don't have.
Ignore the top layer of the Muppet show
Sadly, it's the top layer of the Muppet show which decides the timing and extent of measures, which means it will get pulled kicking and screaming into a lockdown about two weeks too late. I have no doubt that the NHS and other public authorities are better prepared, but the country is also much better seeded with the virus than in March. It remained endemic in large parts of the north of England because lockdown was eased as soon as the south was ready.
Symbolic half-measures like closing pubs a whole hour earlier and describing this as a meaningful restriction suggest to me that this is a government which wants to do the bare minimum to protect the vulnerable.
It remained endemic in large parts of the north of England because lockdown was eased as soon as the south was ready.
And the government were being told this loud and clear by the leaders of northern councils at the time, but chose to ignore them.
Worrying, very worrying, and we all saw this coming.
When you say all, Dido Harding didnt. But anyway...
Matt Hancock is back on the radio using the “Covid Secure” phrase about education again.
Circuit breakers seem to be the thing today. We may be world leading on buzz words but they might be one analogy out her. What we are really looking for is a fire breaks and fire suppression but that wouldn't be jolly and might indicate the potential scale of the looming problems.
Interesting seeing Matty boy this morning - I thought the local authorities had ask for extra measures rather than a decisive intervention on his part.
My wife saw a thing (from a doctor involved in the symptom tracking app) saying that if you have a blocked nose/sneezing you don’t have Covid, even if you have a bit of a cough. If that’s the case it would probably stop most schoolchildren with coughs needing to get tested/ isolate. Then again I guess if you relax guidance it will just push up transmission.
This sounds like BS to me.
Unless I'm mistaken then having Covid doesn't prevent hay fever or catching another virus.
I am no expert but I assume the easing of the lockdown (informed by low case numbers in the south) was at a time when numbers weren't low enough in the north. The virus has therefore had a greater base from which to spread and hence we aren't seeing peaks in the south yet - although surely they will follow. Clearly, the voices of Burnham and other mayors weren't enough to influence Gov sufficiently then and aren't now. If Eric Pickles hadn't binned off the Regional Assemblies, things might have been different.
Today, despite the press/government failings we have the education and at least some preparedness
I think this is the important point. Also it is worth pointing out that despite public perceptions to the contrary, I am sure that a huge effort is being put into developing testing capacity by people working 16-hour days. The fact is capacity grows linearly but demand blows up a lot faster. Doubling capacity takes months. Doubling demand takes about a fortnight!
Clarity of decision and its communication would be more helpful. Schools are off for at least a week at the end of October. This will reduce transmission between households. If we can reduce transmission further during that period by limiting other contacts, it will buy some time up to Christmas. Time bought now is fewer total deaths come mid 2021, when the cavalry (may) arrive in the form of vaccines, protective treatments and targeted testing. That should be the message. You read it here first 😉
At least they said education and businesses is a priority. That's an advance.
1. I’ve come back from Spain, I just want the family to get a test to check we’re all OK so we can carry on with our lives we just want peace of mind.
2. Someone at work has tested positive so my boss told me I can’t come back to work till I get a negative test.
Both admitted they had no sign of any symptoms and felt perfectly alright.
I know its only 2 examples but there’s been more in other interviews. People are admitting on national TV of either breaking quarantine rules and or getting a test when they shouldn’t.
There was another example yesterday where a mum had a cough, she wanted to book a test online, her employment status was unemployed so got rejected due to priorities. She admitted to selecting key worker as employment type and it allowed her to get a test. She was questioned “Do you feel bad about taking a key workers test?”. The response was no, “I’m a single mum I need to keep my family safe” FFS you’re unemployed you can do two weeks isolation as a family no issues. Getting a test doesnt make you suddenly safer it just provides you with knowledge of having it.
That’s what the system is also having to contend with.
First example I agree, that's not a need. Second one, the guy can't work until he's tested - sounds like a need to me. Third one, she has symptoms so should be able to get a test. Maybe she's bubbled with elderly parents?
My wife saw a thing (from a doctor involved in the symptom tracking app) saying that if you have a blocked nose/sneezing you don’t have Covid, even if you have a bit of a cough. If that’s the case it would probably stop most schoolchildren with coughs needing to get tested/ isolate. Then again I guess if you relax guidance it will just push up transmission.
I expect it was this from Tim Spector:
https://twitter.com/timspector/status/1306631026228236291
saying that if you have a blocked nose/sneezing you don’t have Covid
WHO: "The most common symptoms of COVID-19 are fever, tiredness, and dry cough. Some patients may have aches and pains, nasal congestion, runny nose, or sore throat."
You can't use block/runny nose as a way of detecting Covid-19... but it is not true that if you have those symptoms that you do to have it... especially true of children, looking at more recent studies of symptoms presented.
Second one, the guy can’t work until he’s tested – sounds like a need to me
Sounds like paying £100 for a private test would be good value? Which is not to say that the current situation is anything but shambolic.
I am sure that a huge effort is being put into developing testing capacity by people working 16-hour days.
Mostly Serco working 16 hour days counting their money. If they were looking for good will, they would be transparent about their true capabilities and share data with the (real) NHS.
My information sources are the WHO, NHS and Government guidance, not some random quack on Twitter.
Took my wife daughter to a test centre yesterday. The people running it seem genuinely surprised that they were coughing so much and were much more visibly ill than anybody else there. Lots of people going who don't appear to have symptoms.
As for the schools, bubbles are a joke - the year groups might be separated but you could easily get transmission between siblings then between year groups.
Took my wife daughter to a test centre yesterday
Your Wife Daughter? You are from the Forest of Dean and your wife/daughter/mother are less then 3 people and I claim my £5.00
My information sources are the WHO, NHS and Government guidance, not some random quack on Twitter.
You mean the random quack who is running a massive citizen science project that led to the confirmation of loss of taste/smell as a symptom of Covid. Yeah, what do they know.
A slight diversion - I’ve seen a few people (waiters) using a sort of lower face visor covering mouth and chin rather than a cloth mask. Can’t help thinking that they’re not going to be as effective at preventing spread of virus?
@greentricky - that was the name.
The thing I took from that video is that the cough has to be persistant not episodic - so my reading is that the sort of occasional couple of coughs you have when you have a cold that is basically to clear phlegm should't be considered a reason to get a test or isolate.
*If* I've understood him correctly, and if that is what all the data says, then its something that can be easily explained to reduce burden on the testing.
He still says you should stay home until you feel better with a cold which i guess would also mean even if you did have covid you would be away from people when you are most infectious
Issue is our daughters school is sending anyone with a sniffle home. My work likewise. Only path to avoiding 14 to 21 days at home is a test. Hence mad clamour.
Correcting my own post:
You can’t use block/runny nose as a way of detecting Covid-19… but it is not true that if you have those symptoms then you do not have it… especially true of children, looking at more recent studies of symptoms presented.
News is reporting a "short circuit" semi-lockdown is being mooted - e.g. go to school, essential work travel and essential travel only otherwise stay at home.
Kelvin
Correcting my own post
That's what I said earlier but it's symptomatic (pun intended) of the way information is being manipulated.
Words like "safe" or even the definitions are being used misleadingly.
If they define COVID-19 as a set of symptoms (which is technically what it is) caused by a virus they can make it whatever they want and that sensu strictu has no connection to carrying the Novel Corona Virus.
It's akin if you will to saying someone with HIV doesn't have AIDS.
News is reporting a “short circuit” semi-lockdown is being mooted – e.g. go to school, essential work travel and essential travel only otherwise stay at home.
*Runs off to buy tonnes of booze and bog roll*
News is reporting a “short circuit” semi-lockdown is being mooted – e.g. go to school, essential work travel and essential travel only otherwise stay at home.
That's not quite what I've read about the 'short circuit' - eg from Sky
Government figures stressed the plans being drawn up stopped short of a full national lockdown, as seen in the spring, when the country was told to "stay at home".
Proposals being worked up for such a "circuit break" could see essential travel to schools and workplaces continuing, but restaurants and bars would shut - or perhaps run on restricted hours - and different households would be asked not to mix.
The restrictions could be put in place for two weeks, but the timing and duration of the measures has yet to be finalised.
We clearly need more input to understand this short circuit plan.
It'd better not be another lockdown - I'm due to be going away next week on a trip I had to postpone from April.
There will be a second full lockdown, it's inevitable. Humans are biased towards optimism so they're going to try a limited lockdown (which won't work because it will be too convoluted) before a full lockdown. The situation will of course, naturally balloon out of control like it is doing so on the continent.
I guarantee that in about 6 months we'll find out that Chris Whitty was sending pissed off emails around this time calling for a full lockdown.
@Nick C, thank you pointing out my typing error, should have said wife AND daughter. Luckily I'm not from the Forest of dean so I'm keeping my £5.00 🙂
I never knew that the Forest of Dean was a hotbed of degeneracy? I just assumed that sort of thing happened in Lincolnshire and Norfolk.
Ignore the top layer of the Muppet show and thousands of public services employees and private businesses have been lining up preparation and planning for round 2.
As happened the first time around, and this time we know more what to expect and are better prepared.
Just moved to a new job in a different civil service department, with everything being working from home. We've been told in no uncertain terms that despite what Boris may say or want, no one will be going back to an office anytime soon. MrsMC works for a local authority, they've pushed back plans to return to offices from October to January at the earliest.
"circuit breaker" is just a new word for lockdown
Lots of the 'libertarian' Tory loving Johnson fanboys are pressuring him not to lockdown
The culture war he stoked to get into power is biting him in the arse
I suspect a 2 week resest would be about giving Delloite enough time to sort out their testing labs & clear their backlog (& hire more staff: lots of vacancies, they want qpcr technicians, 12 hr shifts, alternating between days & nights, salary poor, even for life science)
If they can hold on until half term it would make sense from a schooling pont of view, but testing farce enduring &/or crappy weather could see schools really struggling to stay open anyway.
News is reporting a “short circuit” semi-lockdown is being mooted – e.g. go to school, essential work travel and essential travel only otherwise stay at home.
I suppose it's a case of "no ideas off the table" at the moment. Another long, national lock-down will be really dire for our economy... but if you have to have one, Oct/Nov isn't a bad time economy wise, they really won't want a lockdown over Xmas. Retail had a terrible Christmas last year and that was before anyone gave a hoot about Covid.
Looking at the news in Wales where our spike appears to be more focused that at a national level, or at least we're being more honest about it, it seems to have been a caused by people travelling and people socialising in Pubs and Bars, forget about Generational bickering, you just can't trust enough people to socially distance after 5 pints. I'm, not sure I'm any better. I went to a Garden Party in August, limited to 30 people, outdoors etc, all legit here in Wales - there was a log of hugging going on at the night wore on... I'm not a big hugger at any time, but after 6 months or Covid stress, I just think too many people are desperate to be care-free for a bit, and maybe regret it later.
I suspect, they'll start of with earlier closing in Pubs - I do, in a strange way, fancy going out to just hear "LAST ORDERS" being called for the first time in decades, but not really. Maybe a 2 week ban on Pubs / Bars / Gyms / Cinemas etc. It was said months ago it seemed unlikely we'd be able to have Pubs AND schools open at the same time.
In other 'news' I heard TV News has been reporting Johnson may use emergency powers to push out the Oxford vaccine 'Unlicensed' I'm sure that will send the AntiVaxers into a spin. Not that it will be a major concern for most - it will only be Healthcare and other Key Workers getting it, then Elderly and other vulnerable people before Covid it allowed to 'run it's course' with the rest of us.
Testing is not for early discharge of quarantine duty. It was not planned as such and capacity was not built for it. Hence when everyone sees this as their get out of (self-imposed home) jail card, it is not surprising that the system can't cope.
We will not be going back to full lockdown. Education will not close en masse. The rest is up for debate. But schools will remain open. Universities might be part of the debate as they are immaterial to the economic argument.
In other ‘news’ I heard TV News has been reporting Johnson may use emergency powers to push out the Oxford vaccine ‘Unlicensed’
Given the background of the Chief Scientific Officer, I find that very hard to believe. The Government don't do "liability".
Anyone know what's happening in Calderdale? New restrictions wise? And if it's for all of Calderdale? I'd listen in to the daily briefing if it was happening...
By the looks of it, they're planning on locking down everything north of Birmingham
Given the background of the Chief Scientific Officer, I find that very hard to believe. The Government don’t do “liability”.
Based on his leaked email it seems he was told STFU previously.
By the looks of it, they’re planning on locking down everything north of Birmingham
That makes sense... I'm sure they're going to communicate and explain it all clearly in a way that encourages everyone to cooperate with it, aren't they...
But schools will remain open.
Plenty of teachers and pupils already at home here in Calderdale... so when you say "remain open", you mean only selectively close groups/years/schools where needed... and that could grow and grow to the point where in some areas school are open only in a very notional way.
and more lockdown measures
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-manchester-54194804
