@mugboo this might be right, but I don't think we know, I assume (because I personally don't know any better) that the experts have decided that on balance the impact of letting it run rampant would be worse (for the economy) than attempting to control and slow the spread
These aren’t my opinions as I spend way too much time on this thread but I think its only right to share this as not everyone gets to talk to as many people as I do.
Yeah, we know that opinion is widespread... and it's not surprising... I hear it even from people who have lost someone from this, or have not really recovered from it. I was ready to throw things at the TV last night, as the Newsnight went full "balance" and let someone (one of the usual 'herd immunity' mob people kept quoting way back in this thread, I forget her name right now, the one who is a 'Theoretical Epidemiologist') eat up airtime while someone there to point out the very real price of that approach had to sit quietly and listen to that nonsense (along with the viewers, many of whom will be moving towards supporting the "do nothing" and leave the vulnerable to magically protect themselves or just quietly die off nonsense).
Well over 50%, maybe 75% favour just getting on with it and letting whatever deaths occur just happen. They can’t see the connection between what we have done and the drop in death rates, In fact, they can’t see that we have even lost anybody extra, only lost a few old folk that were dying anyway.
I'm still surprised when I hear this. I guess that unless you know someone younger/fitter/healthier who has been devastated by the virus, there's a disconnect between the warnings and your actual experience.
Let's hope Cummings doesn't hold a referendum on whether to lockdown or let it rip.
Similar story here re coughs/colds. My 5 year old was only coughing for 2 days, be still has a gravelly voice but almost over it which is quite quickly. The 3 year old came down with it a couple of days later and similar story, she's well on the mend. It is a strong indicator imv, that once covid enters a school it will appear m spread.
We are off to West wittering at half term. This break was cancelled at Easter and rebooked. Couldn't go sooner as we had a baby boy arrive in June. Wife and I feel that we go this time book matter what. Sneaking past road blocks is needed (joking!). TBF though, it's just us in a cottage by the beach.... We'll be self isolating basically, just need to book the supermarket delivery!
I’m still surprised when I hear this. I guess that unless you know someone younger/fitter/healthier who has been devastated by the virus, there’s a disconnect between the warnings and your actual experience.
Let’s hope Cummings doesn’t hold a referendum on whether to lockdown or let it rip.
My brexity mum occasionally complains about the government lying & being useless, but it's amazing how quickly she absorbs the government's line & repeats it- yesterday it was that the testing should be done in the private sector not by PHE, she didn't believe me at all when I said Delloite ran the testing centers
I was ready to throw things at the TV last night, as the Newsnight went full “balance” and let someone (one of the usual ‘herd immunity’ mob people kept quoting way back in this thread, I forget her name right now, the one who is a ‘Theoretical Epidemiologist’) eat up airtime while someone there to point out the very real price of that approach had to sit quietly and listen to that nonsense (along with the viewers, many of whom will be moving towards supporting the “do nothing” and leave the vulnerable to magically protect themselves or just quietly die off nonsense).
Sunetra Gupta, she has been on a few shows in the last week, it isn't an unreasonable viewpoint to offer if you can offer if you can clearly outline the full impact of the consquences and how that balances with the other costs we might land up paying but she seems to just make it sound like it will be abit inconvienent but life goes on
The null hypothesis is that the epidemic went down due to contact restriction. The alternative hypothesis is that the epidemic waned due to acquired immunity and running out of new susceptibles to infect. I do not believe there is sufficient data to reject the null hypothesis. A strong prediction is that relaxing contact restriction will increase hospitalizations and deaths. We are seeing that in France and Spain now and will see it in the UK in a few weeks time.
Forget cases - testing is helpful for local identification of force of infection and heads hospitalizations by a week. But the ramping up (or not) makes identification of a useful denominator challenging.
[TL:DR] Sunetra Gupta has long been wedded to us having immunity. Give it two weeks to watch hospital admissions rise and invite her back for comment.
hancock just started his special announcement in the Commons - 5live now.
https://www.cornwalllive.com/news/uk-world-news/boris-johnson-could-order-two-4523293
Not sure there is any truth in that article, but I kinda hope there is and such things are being discussed.
Sunetra Gupta, she has been on a few shows in the last week, it isn’t an unreasonable viewpoint to offer if you can offer if you can clearly outline the full impact of the consquences and how that balances with the other costs we might land up paying but she seems to just make it sound like it will be abit inconvienent but life goes on
Attitudes in India towards the value of life are different and lockdown has hit the poorest there even harder than here - meaning that the lives of much of the lower castes who were already living in squalor are now a living hell. I have yet to be convinced by Guptas work in the context of the UK, so I can only think that because countries like India have coped with some arguably far greater health issues and have carried on regardless in the past, that she has a cognitive bias/blind spot when it comes to Covid in the UK - she also might have a point.
hancock just started his special announcement in the Commons – 5live now.
He is just a propoganda machine at this point, the tests work, the labs work, the booking system works, its world beating, we have record capacity, claims to the contrary wrong and unhelpful. The only problem is people getting tests who don't need them.
Waiting for the more granular local data later on today - my local area apparently going to shite alongside Harrogate and Selby in North Yorks. As a shielder, considering my options now in terms of sending my kids to school for the next couple of weeks to give the government the chance to catch up again.
Update from my barber shop for those interested. Well over 50%, maybe 75% favour just getting on with it and letting whatever deaths occur just happen.
By definition the people going to the barbers are probably less risk averse. If you asked the same question to the people who are still cutting their own hair at home I suspect you’d get different answers.
claims to the contrary wrong and unhelpful
He very careful used the words “divisive” and unhelpful… he can’t say the claims are wrong… as Cummings and Johnson could pivot at any point and except the claims and right… leaving him looking silly yet again.
> double post <
Thats a good point Mudmuncher and barber shops are doing less business so there are plenty of them.
Managed to get a test today in Newtown Wales, 30 miles away, have been and done the test. Pretty uneventful in the end, hopefully find out tomorrow if I'm a plague bearer.
Right back in early March I thought through the options. I thought there were only 3:
1: Harsh lockdown, Chinese style, drive the virus out of business but also much of your economy
2: Boris' 'Take it on the chin' and let the vulnerable die
3: Radically re-think society and business so that it could still work in a post-COVID world
I really hoped that the shock would be severe enough that we'd choose 3, but guess which one I thought most likely? And which one have we got, despite what the government claims?
hancock just started his special announcement in the Commons – 5live now.
He is just a propoganda machine at this point, the tests work, the labs work, the booking system works, its world beating, we have record capacity, claims to the contrary wrong and unhelpful. The only problem is people getting tests who don’t need them.
Propaganda will convince some of the people some/all of the time.
hancock's emissions don't convince anyone - the gov, NHS, general public; I doubt he believes the words he's being forced to utter.
Stop your carping - time to praise the governments efforts!
Says the Moggster.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-54194333
Anyone left willing to vote for these ****ers?
So, has Dido Harding just admitted she's ****ed up her current job just like she did the last one? My god, apparently "nobody knew we'd need this many tests", What the actual f...
A testing site where there are no tests available...
https://thelincolnite.co.uk/2020/09/deserted-covid-19-testing-centre-as-test-shortage-continues/
Replicated across the country, I'm sure.
Have invited my (tory) MP to comment; caroline johnson, a hospital consultant, is well known for toeing the party line regardless of the facts
They better not start sending Covid patients into homes. MIL's nursing home lost quite a few residents. We're still on restricted visiting once a week from the car park.
The only possible good outcome now is that enough Tory voters realise what an incompetent shambles they've elected. They've ****ed up Covid, they're ****ing up Brexit, as a result they've ****ed the economy.
If herd immunity is the solution what's the problem?
Just watched the Channel 4 news report, where its petty obvious care homes might be pursued intro taking in KNOWN Covid patients.
That must be terrifying to hear for anyone who has loved ones in homes. My heart goes out to them and hopefully the bad press from this might stop it.
That's how care homes were treated in round 1....
The only possible good outcome now is that enough Tory voters realise what an incompetent shambles they’ve elected. They’ve * up Covid, they’re * up Brexit, as a result they’ve **** the economy.
Very much doubt that. Boris will trot out some slogan like hands, face, space, oven ready or even get brexit done and they will fall for it again. After that they will just say oh well Corbyn couldn't have done better despite him not even being the party leader any more.
If herd immunity is the solution what’s the problem?
Collateral damage?
Stop your carping – time to praise the governments efforts!
Says the Moggster.
I thought there were reports he'd caught covid. Looks like he's going to be even more insufferable out the other side.
If herd immunity is the solution what’s the problem?
That probably requires a vaccine, one that either has proven longevity, or can be topped up. This is a virus where herd immunity may not be obtainable by letting it rip through the community, even if we were to accept the deaths and damaged lives that would cause. Herd immunity by exposure to the virus would not just be horribly costly, at this stage it is purely theoretical. We haven’t lived with it long enough to know if immunity after exposure is long lasting.
The solution is to defer morbidity until a valid method of protection (other than infection) is available to the most vulnerable. At the moment the only intervention available is contact restriction.
Some testing may be possible to help with targeting this intervention. But as the media shows, everyone “needs” a test. In fact systematic testing of those most likely to spread should be the first action.
In time, vaccination or passive antibody vaccination may provide a route for protection. Lilly reported some positive data on their antibody on Monday preventing hospitalisation of mild infections from 6% to 1.6%. A big effect but low actual numbers of patients. Early days but going the right way.
Forget cases. Hospital admissions are climbing and deaths will follow. When treatments come the rates will slow. Dexamethasone will help decouple admissions and deaths. Remdesivir May too (I’m skeptical).
My best case scenario is an annual vaccination by mid 2021, and if that fails to materialise, then six monthly antibody protection by the end of 2021 for the most vulnerable. I’m not optimistic for the current vaccine candidates. That’s based more on past precedence than hard science. But some convalescent plasma trials have failed recently, which does not bode well for the field.
[TL:DR]. Aim is to prevent morbidity in the vulnerable by all available means. Protection will come but not till mid or late 2021. Keep your hands inside the car at all times please. Test if you want to go faster.
SAGE modellers screwed the pooch again. Spent all summer telling us the virus was under control, we had to prepare for winter. Harding may be shit at her job but she was told to ramp up testing for winter. We’re barely halfway through September.
I see the hapless and hopeless zahawi has been wheeled out on QT to represent the clown circus.
Waffle, refusal to answer a direct question - ah, er, um, well; bullshit.
'Working to make the system even better...' WTF? That clearly implies the 'system' is doing well.
It would be more informative if the BBC used a nodding donkey instead of inviting the tories to put up a stooge.
zahawi has clearly been infected by johnson's verbal mannerisms - once he gets going it's like being power sprayed with bullshit.
sunetra gupta's comments bear no relation to reality; herd immunity all round chaps!
cauldwell loves the sound of his own voice; a very successful mobile phone salesman who knows nothing about virology, epidemiology, healthcare is given a platform to pontificate. Not a shred of common sense or logic from him.
Harding may be shit at her job but she was told to ramp up testing for winter.
Her agencies (ha!) haven’t hit the testing promised in April yet!
https://twitter.com/10DowningStreet/status/1245820428020584450?s=20
Estimates are that we’re testing less than 100,000 people a day now, six months later (ignore all the capacity nonsense, that keeps recounting tests never ever posted out).
Testing should have been ramping up over the summer to enable the return to schools, unis and the workplace… the government said it would be required, as would track/trace and a ‘vital’ contact app.
Nursing and care home and NHS staff still don’t have the access to testing they’ve been asking for. How were eduction and other staff supposed to be supported by testing when the health staff are still not being catered for?
I’ve said it before, but there is no evidence of herd immunity, and worse, a resurgence of new hospitalisations and deaths would refute that hypothesis for good. An obvious point, but an SEIR model has a symmetric curve for infections and deaths. Data does not.
As for modelling the need for tests. Suffice to say, I made a suggestion on testing. I did not provide capacity, but I did give a strategy for priority that one could work from to estimate capacity (starting with healthcare workers and nursing homes and moving to schools). I’m afraid that blanket mass testing is not the answer.
For any anti-mask, covid conpiracists...
https://twitter.com/piersmorgan/status/1306678487386918912?s=20
Just watched the Channel 4 news report, where its petty obvious care homes might be pursued intro taking in KNOWN Covid patients
IMO this is what the fabled Nightingale Hospitals could usefully do. There clearly aren't any spare NHS staff to run them as the govt originally pretended but they probably could house "fit for discharge" virus-positive patients until they can get a couple of negatives under their belts and then go to proper homes
Regarding the testing, I think they need to update the guidance a bit on when symptoms need testing. For the three coughing episodes, there is no explanation of what an episode is, is it a couple of coughs or coughing repeatedly for e.g 1 minute? Is it a dry or productive cough?
My wife saw a thing (from a doctor involved in the symptom tracking app) saying that if you have a blocked nose/sneezing you don’t have Covid, even if you have a bit of a cough. If that’s the case it would probably stop most schoolchildren with coughs needing to get tested/ isolate. Then again I guess if you relax guidance it will just push up transmission.
I also wonder if much less people will bother getting tested at the next round of coughs and colds? Everyone is probably very cautious now but seeing as you probably get a cough/cold every six weeks in winter unless they sort it so people can get a test locally and get the test back within 24hrs people will give up
I think they need to update the guidance a bit on when symptoms need testing. For the three coughing episodes, there is no explanation of what an episode is, is it a couple of coughs or coughing repeatedly for e.g 1 minute? Is it a dry or productive cough?
My wife saw a thing (from a doctor involved in the symptom tracking app) saying that if you have a blocked nose/sneezing you don’t have Covid, even if you have a bit of a cough. If that’s the case it would probably stop most schoolchildren with coughs needing to get tested/ isolate
100% agreed, the failure of our .gov to communicate effectively and provide information is huge. It could even be multi layered. If you have a cough dont go to school or work. If you have a dry persistent cough, get tested. That wouldnt be a hard message to get out.
Regarding the testing, I think they need to update the guidance a bit on when symptoms need testing.
That won't help when people who don't need one are trying to get one.
On BBC morning news a couple of days ago, 2 people were interviewed outside a walk in centre when the story was about lack of tests.
1. I've come back from Spain, I just want the family to get a test to check we're all OK so we can carry on with our lives we just want peace of mind.
2. Someone at work has tested positive so my boss told me I can't come back to work till I get a negative test.
Both admitted they had no sign of any symptoms and felt perfectly alright.
I know its only 2 examples but there's been more in other interviews. People are admitting on national TV of either breaking quarantine rules and or getting a test when they shouldn't.
There was another example yesterday where a mum had a cough, she wanted to book a test online, her employment status was unemployed so got rejected due to priorities. She admitted to selecting key worker as employment type and it allowed her to get a test. She was questioned "Do you feel bad about taking a key workers test?". The response was no, "I'm a single mum I need to keep my family safe" FFS you're unemployed you can do two weeks isolation as a family no issues. Getting a test doesnt make you suddenly safer it just provides you with knowledge of having it.
That's what the system is also having to contend with.
@a_a - Yes, or a really basic flow chart using type of cough, temperature, blocked nose etc. They must have enough data by now to develop something.
It doesn’t excuse the governments complete lack of preparedness on the testing front but would at least enable a more streamlined approach and help till they finally build capacity
That won’t help when people who don’t need one are trying to get one.
While we’re only testing people with symptoms, we’re not going to stop this spreading with everything open. To still be officially offering tests to symptomatic people only means that realistically we need far more people isolating after contact with people who have tested positive. We can’t have it both ways… trying to keep schools, workplaces, bars, restaurants, care homes and hospitals… just about everything open… and not offer testing to close contacts of positive people. We can’t have track, trace and do nothing. Isolation (with support for both employees and businesses) or (negative) testing should follow.
Kelvin the system is not designed to test everyone.
Its quite clear, only get a test if you have symptoms or self isolate if you have known contact but no symptoms.
I agree with you that to keep everything ticking over you'd need more testing e.g. the moonshot plan but that's not feasible right now nor is it the current T&Ts goal.
So based on the leaks, I'm expecting a 2 week national lockdown to coincide with October half term.
If the situation hasn't already escalated to a bigger lockdown before then. Mid October does feel optimistic.
