The link between lockdown conditions and eventual outcome is not clear.
The link between timing of, and extent of, and success of, social distancing measures, and outcome, is very very clear.
then what is your preferred value?
Few enough to be able to track/trace/isolate new cases. What that number is, and what social distancing measures we keep, needs to be judged together with what measures are in place to track/trace/isolate. I’d make sure schools and workplaces can fully open safely before mass gatherings, inside it out, become the norm again, personally.
Would be interested in a source for that - it's not something I've been able to find. Anyway, I'm not arguing that lockdown shouldn't have happened, I'm arguing that it's time for it be over. Especially here in Wales.
We don’t have ‘lock down‘. We have restrictions on movement and gathering. These will change, but not fully go away, ‘till we have low enough infections levels and suitable track/trace/arrangements in place.
Few enough to be able to track/trace/isolate new cases.
I do understand the benefits of that approach, but I have my doubts that it can be practically implemented. I have been following the news in New Zealand, which despite having 7% of the UK's population, and apparently zero Covid cases for a while, is already having huge difficulties tracking and tracing.
We don’t have ‘lock down‘. We have restrictions on movement and gathering
At least in Wales, we can't go anywhere (AFAIK the law here is that you can't leave your house except for essential reasons, and then you are to "stay local"), or see almost anyone. Feels like a lockdown to me. Then again, IMHO the Welsh Assembly Government is turning Wales into clown country, where shops can re-open but children go to school for 3 hours a week.
T/T/I is a large task. Larger still if you have too many cases. Your alternative is…?
In general, I think you need to read more. Plenty of starters in this thread if you page back.
Pick a country, and we’ll follow it over the next few weeks. I bet you choose Germany or New Zealand
Given that so far we have done worse than pretty much every other country on earth when it comes to containing the spread of the virus, why do you seem to think the next few months will be any different..
But since you ask...let's pick Spain and Italy, 2 countries hard hit by the virus, but still less deaths than the UK despite having less time to prepare first time round. I'll be prepared to bet that any second spike in uk will be worse..
Your alternative is…?
There isn't one, and we knew that at the start. The goal was to flatten the peak, to prevent the NHS being overwhelmed, and that is all we can still do.
You think it’s “job done”?
let’s pick Spain and Italy, 2 countries hard hit by the virus, but still less deaths than the UK
Italy, with the lowest per capita death rate of the three countries in question, is still 90% that of the UK. That's pretty close, and I'm not sure what that shows. It will be interesting to see if they do have a second peak, and how it compares to any in the UK.
You think it’s “job done”?
Yes, the initial goal of lockdown has been accomplished. It's clear that Boris is lifting it as fast as he can.
Iceland, Croatia, Slovakia, Bulgaria?
Apparently all up. Bulgaria particularly so (higher than first peak). Take a look here.
Number of NHS deaths continue to decline...
https://www.scribd.com/document/467148483/NHS-Hospital-Deaths
Number of new cases continue to decline...
https://www.scribd.com/document/467148549/Rates-by-Lower-Tier
Yes, the initial goal of lockdown has been accomplished. It’s clear that Boris is lifting it as fast as he
canwants to.
Just to make this point again...
T/T/I is a large task. Larger still if you have too many cases.
As I said above, New Zealand had pretty much the perfect starting point for this (small population, zero cases, very controlled borders), and is already struggling. It's a bit more than a "large task", IMHO it's not feasible, especially in a country with a population many times larger.
It is difficult, and people will be missed. But, not doing it means thousands of deaths or more stringent social distancing measures for a good while to come. Neither are preferable, in my opinion. NZ is avoiding both. We seem to think we can do T/T/I with higher numbers, by paying a private company to employee more people in a centralised system, but I doubt it scales that well in reality. By getting to fewer cases, and ramping up more localised systems, and maybe mobile apps on top of those, we could have a chance… we’re choosing to make the difficult even more difficult.
Is the size of the population really the issue? Surely its the moron ratio, at which we are 'World Class'.
T&T won't work if people are too entitled / stupid to follow advice.
As I said above, New Zealand had pretty much the perfect starting point for this (small population, zero cases, very controlled borders), and is already struggling.
Is it though? In last 24 hrs they had 2 confirmed cases. That sounds like it's well under control to me.
Depending where you are, and your circumstances, it’s even legal.
Nope, it's still illegal. If only one of them had died of the virus, then at least I could have hugged the survivor by now 😠
Pretty much every government in the world would love to be struggling like New Zealand right now.
T&T won’t work if people are too entitled / stupid to follow advice.
Maybe they'd be more prepared to follow advice if the people giving the advice weren't a bunch of lying barstewards!
At least in Wales, we can’t go anywhere (AFAIK the law here is that you can’t leave your house except for essential reasons, and then you are to “stay local”), or see almost anyone. Feels like a lockdown to me.
No, lockdown is when you can't leave your house, as happened in other countries.
Then again, IMHO the Welsh Assembly Government is turning Wales into clown country, where shops can re-open but children go to school for 3 hours a week.
This isn't inconsistent. The point is you cannot be too close to people. So you can open shops as long as people don't get close to each other (which is happening, or should be - hence queues and so on); and you can go to school as long as you don't get close to other kids. This is why they can only have few kids in at a time.
It does make sense. It's fascinating to see how people's emotions cloud their viewpoint. They want to be allowed to travel around, and they look at England and think that the English approach must be right and Wales must be wrong. But what if it's the other way round? After all, English policy is being led by an idiot.
Acting like “it’s over” will kill thousands… it is now very difficult for us to follow the path NZ is on, but we absolutely should be trying… the cost to the economy and in lives is huge if we do not. With current measures in place, we’re looking at another 30000 deaths. If we go ahead with further lifting of restrictions in July, with T/T/I and the contract tracing app both not expected to be useful ‘till the autumn, we’ll be lucky for it to only be another 30000 deaths. I hope we are lucky. I wish we had a government that got things done, rather than one which wastes money on its friends‘ schemes and just hopes for the best.
@morecashthandash I'm truly sorry for your loss. The effects of this disease and the lockdown have been heartbreaking. A friend of ours had her first baby, and their grandparent died before they could ever meet.
you can go to school as long as you don’t get close to other kids. This is why they can only have few kids in at a time.
The Welsh Assembly certainly is forging its own path here, recently ignoring a letter signed by hundreds of doctors, asking for the evidence to be examined with a view to scrapping social distancing in schools. I'm personally very glad our nursery, which can finally re-open, will be maintaining as normal an environment as possible.
I’m truly sorry for your loss. The effects of this disease and the lockdown have been heartbreaking.
You've completely misread or misunderstood what I wrote, and I get the feeling you've done the same with government advice - as have many others, as it hasn't exactly been clear.
You’ve completely misread...
So I did. I read it that they both had died. In that case, go and hug them! The story I related is still relevant. My friend's grandmother died during lockdown before she could ever meet her new great-granddaughter, and IMHO that is un-necessarily heartbreaking.
I think I have a reasonably good understanding of the government guidelines (certainly here in Wales, at least). I just think they are misguided.
Just to poke @molgrips one more time - the "what if the others are wrong" argument doesn't really work. What if Westminster have it right? Then they could look at Wales and say "Why are they driving themselves crazy in isolation, and denying themselves family time and childcare, when it's no worse over here? They must be lead by an idiot!"
Comparing the responses of devolved governments is interesting & throws up discrepancies, but a blanket approach would be wrong anyway
Wales has higher obesity rate than England & NHS in have different challenges, resources etc.
Obesity, poverty etc all vary between regions & are important comorbidities with virus.
I'd also say even along the south coast of Wales you have much easier access to outdoor activities than in manu parts of england
Two days in a row of zero deaths in Scotland, only 15 new cases, cautious optimism abound, although I worry about the masses heading north when the tourist trade opens up soon.
Fingers crossed.
So whats the betting on a Leicester lockdown?
Longer odds than you would have got at the start of their prem winning footie season.
Nothing to say other than thanks to TiRed and the other science contributers
And I want to be post 14000!
Edit: beaten by Frank.... garrrh
So whats the betting on a Leicester lockdown?
From the Times:
The government is preparing to impose the first local lockdown within days following a surge in coronavirus cases in Leicester, according to senior government sources.
Never learn, will they.
Never learn, will they
The management of this pandemic in the uk is bordering on negligence now..
As you say, have they learned absolutely nothing about getting on top of any outbreaks quickly..
They have no chance of having successful "local lockdowns" now anyway. People will just leave the city to go and stay with friends and families in lower risk rural areas, if they can. You know, to have emergency child care close at hand... to do what is instinctively the best thing for their family. I don't think the government will even try... it'll just be a matter of concentrating trace/trace/isolate measures on areas with outbreaks... but even then... if you think you or your wife have it, or have been in contact with a work mate who has... do you cooperate with T/T/I measures and stay at home... or do a runner? One of the mugs who follow the rules out of civic duty, or a smart maverick who uses their common sense to do what they think is best?
The management of this pandemic in the uk is bordering on negligence now..
As you say, have they learned absolutely nothing about getting on top of any outbreaks quickly..
We'll see what, if anything, they have up their sleeves in the next two weeks. This is the crux moment for test and trace locally. They've had four months to prepare for it. Let's find out if they've done their homework.
Never learn, will they
The thing is, it's not just the politicians.
We as a society are independent minded, for years we've not felt (or been encouraged towards) a 'we' for the greater good. We're cutting ourselves off from from our friends, colleagues and allies across the channel. Inequality grows - and many of us don't care.
We're selfish.
So to now expect that we as citizens can now put others first is a tall ask - and we're not even being asked that well.
Edit: we also don't have that societal respect for rule of law, as so many other European nations do...
We’re selfish.
A bit pessimistic… most Brits have made sacrifices this year, knowing that there is little risk to themselves but that we all had to make changes to protect others. However, the government applauding selfish behaviour (Cummings) has undermined this immeasurably when it comes to making sacrifices over the rest of this year. What politicians say and do is key here, blaming the public is misdirection, I feel.
There is a localised hotspot In the West Midlands focused on Leicester and Daventry. I’m not convinced about local lockdown. But monitoring closely and concentration of TTI resources seems reasonable.
Off to look at the data more closely.
Off to look at the data more closely
You might want to check your compass too!!! 😁😁😁
There is a localised hotspot In the West Midlands focused on Leicester and Daventry
East Midlands! How can I trust any of your expert knowledge now🤦♂️
The vast majority of the population have done the "right thing", but that majority has been worn away in recent weeks. Strava suggests I'm the last person still doing solo rides.
The Leicester thing is interesting. Reports suggest the positive tests are in the poorer, more densely populated part of the city, which have higher BAME population, and I'm going out on a limb, a higher population in more physical close contact factory work.
Two weeks ago I mentioned seeing a group of 12 club riders all totally ignoring social distancing at a cafe. The cafe is a popular run for clubs out if Leicester. What I didn't mention was that the club exists to promote cycling among the BAME community. This was the week the report into higher BAME deaths was in the news.
Strava suggests I’m the last person still doing solo rides.
No you aren't...
it's worrying if it's spiking now, doesn't bode well for next week when the pubs, restaurants and hair dressers kick off. Seems to be what's caused the resurgence in the US.
There is a localised hotspot In the West Midlands focused on Leicester and Daventry.
Is that close to Durdle door? Aren’t we expecting a spike from there soon. 😉