Think of all the bodily fluids from the hundreds of sweaty bodies, on every surface.
And gyms are probably just as bad.
Lol.
Too much, too fast? Maybe. Too slow and the economy gets even more buggered. Lose/lose.
Probably seeing us through to December, when they can blame the second wave on winter conditions.
Some will. Those who went walking in the Peak, then to the beach, and then McD’s, and then Ikea and Primark; are itching to get back to the pub.
2 of those really seem quite sensible IF you are more or less the only person there.
I’m just thinking of the strain on the NHS and emergency services when all the ****ing idiots get hammered on the 4th. Ambulance staff, police and nurses dealing with dickheads and A&E packed to the rafters.
And then again a couple of weeks later as the infections and hospital admissions increase after the inevitable shedding of inhibitions lubricated by alcohol.
Alcohol is a killer but now it has a new string to it’s bow.
No doubt in a months time the BBC will run an article about some punter who is in a hospital bed recovering, who is keen to warn others that they thought it was safe going to the pub and in hindsight it turned out not to be..
It doesn't require hindsight to know this is going to end badly. It's basic common sense.
Restaurants and cafes mixed on reopening. I read an article about one waiting because the potential of having to close again if they are alerted about a positive case having been on the premises (customer or staff) creates too much uncertainty and bigger business risk than reopening when the risk is genuinely lower and its more likely to be permanent.
This is where I don’t get the whole easing of lockdown ‘for the economy’ argument. Surely a later reopening when cases are properly lower increases the likelihood of a more stable recovery? At the moment we’re somewhere between the US (reopened before cases were sufficiently low and are now back on the rise) and Europe (reopened when cases v low and generally ok but with pockets of outbreaks) with our fingers crossed.
I heard a cafe owner on the radio making the point, that her regulars were looking forward to a relaxing coffee on a Sunday morning with a newspaper but she said that won't work. Customers staying for an hour and buying one coffee will ruin her, so takeaways are the only way for now.
And a local pub has already said there will be a minimum spend.
Not that it matters to me, I've no desire to do either of those things at the moment. I love my local pub and have bought beers from them over lockdown but I'm no rush to head back.
Clover
SubscriberThis is where I don’t get the whole easing of lockdown ‘for the economy’ argument. Surely a later reopening when cases are properly lower increases the likelihood of a more stable recovery?
Absolutely. And a fast, hard lockdown would have been better still. But when they were copying New Zealand's homework they got the two the wrong way round.
Why has Boris decided to let pubs reopen on the 4th? It's a Saturday so a natural night for people to go out and drink lots in pubs as they can have a lie in the next morning. Surely it would be far more sensible to let them open on a Monday or Tuesday where the numbers should be lower therefore more easily managed.
I have visions of hoardes hitting whatever's open like a New Year's Eve party. I hope I'm wrong and that the majority are sensible but I fear I may be right. Hopefully the weather that day will be horrid, wind and rain, so it keeps the crowds down.
I heard a cafe owner on the radio making the point, that her regulars were looking forward to a relaxing coffee on a Sunday morning with a newspaper but she said that won’t work. Customers staying for an hour and buying one coffee will ruin her, so takeaways are the only way for now.
And a local pub has already said there will be a minimum spend.
Yep, people still haven't cottoned on to the idea that it's not a return to the old normal the second everything opens. We have to find a new normal for the forseeable, same as limited numbers in supermarkets are now normal.
Sorry guys, not been keeping up with the thread. Am I correct in assuming the chosen date of 4th July has the usual BS Tory/ faintly brexity significance?...
Anyway, I sure as hell won't be going to the pub etc.
I avoid all "inside" scenarios other than chemist and occasional co-op shop. When I do those I wear ffp3 mask and I'm fastidious with not touching face etc etc
That behaviour isn't going to change no matter what the government advice is.
Why has Boris decided to let pubs reopen on the 4th? It’s a Saturday so a natural night for people to go out and drink lots in pubs as they can have a lie in the next morning.
You really fell for the fantasy that they’d u-turned on their ‘herd-immunity‘ experiment?
Also - American Independence Day. Perfectly timed National psych-alignment strategy by the usual suspect? It’ll be like Europe never happened (except for it Having being another war we British won!) Up yours, EU! We’re blowing our own Trump-et now...!’
Virus???
We’ll defeat it on the Nation’s beaches!
/cloudfront-us-east-1.images.arcpublishing.com/shropshirestar.mna/5DCCM6JZYFGITOKYOZAU7YMHQM.jpg)
We’ll defeat it in the National pubs!
And if by any chance it all goes tits up, we’ll get the NHS clappers back out. Our girls and boys on the front line are rearing to go.
But on other hand, if you are stuck in a bedsit flat with no garden in some inner city suburb, the chance to get out in the sun, even in those circumstances, is probably quite appealing.
My grandparents (and parents) used to go to the British Countryside. Often hop-picking or fruit-picking. Or picnics on shorter trips.
I tried it and liked it. They may have been on to something...
I reckon people could give unnecessary travel a miss just this year, find a field with an icebox? Play some family games? Frisbee? French cricket? Bit of cycle-touring? Treasure-hunt? Water-pistols and strawberries? No? Gods, I’m old.
The daily briefing was hurting them so that really had to go.
The weekend ‘victory’ celebrations are A terrible Idea but this a government that lost control of the situation fast and are attempting to take back control.
Operation shove under the carpet begins and how well we managed it begins.
Last week US ten states experienced record-high rates of daily infection, including states like Florida, Arizona, Alabama, and Texas, where Republican governors insisted on loosening lockdowns early. But we're British, it won't be anything like that here, oh no.
Maybe July 4th will go down in history not only as a celebration of when the USA defeated the UK govt but also the day the CV-19 did the same.
Does this mean the Science community is starting to distance itself from what Boris is doing?
UK must prepare for second virus wave - health leaders
Now they don't have the daily briefings to air their views are we going to see more direct stories that don't hold back from calling a spade a spade? I hope so as we need to know the full picture every step of the way now to avoid issues this winter.
Maybe July 4th will go down in history not only as a celebration of when the USA defeated the UK govt but also the day the CV-19 did the same.
"Dependence Day"?
“Dependence Day”?
Chapeau.
Benidorm, brace your beaches...2020 is not over yet. We’ll defeat this virus. Stay alert.
Stephen Reicher, a psychology professor and member of SPI-B, the Sage subcommittee advising the government on behavioural issues:
The only thing worse than not having a functional test and trace system is not admitting to not having a functional test and trace system. That way you won't improve and you will make premature decisions to relax restrictions. Which, of course, is what has just happened.
https://twitter.com/ReicherStephen/status/1275761057424949248
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jun/24/boris-johnson-ease-lockdown-england
Don’t know if it’s true or not but all of the papers are reporting that UK ministers are creating new ‘air bridges’ so that we can quickly and safely go abroad to Spain and The Caribbean without troublesome quarantines. This has to be a firm signal that the UK government has a firm hand on this Covid19 business. Wonder if it is a super-bridge like the one the PM had planned for London? Maybe the cycle superhighway could be resurrected and now be a superairbridgecycleway?
I like the idea of ‘bridges’ because air-pollution is a thing and during lockdown while it lasted nature seemed to get a brief breather.
(How an airbridge might look)
I'm hoping I can get a tech guy over from Germany sharpish without having to go through the pointless 14 days.
It Would appear to be kicking off everywhere again looking at the news from Germany USA Portugal etc
Dare no one mention the BLM protest effect?
The timing would seem to fit 🙄
Are we at 2.5 on the Bozzometer? Give or take?
Dare no one mention the BLM protest effect?
No BLM protests out here in semi-rural Yorkshire. Everyone has mixing since the hint was dropped in all the papers that they might as well...
Do the local flare ups in the countries you mention map onto protests, or employers failing at social distancing, and people enjoying bars and restaurants?
(How an airbridge might look)
Is that a mockup of Johnson's bridge to Northern Island?
Are we at 2.5 on the Bozzometer?
Ask the members of Joint Biosecurity Centre (JBC)... they are supposed to be setting it, according to Johnson. Who are they...?
shaundryden
SubscriberDare no one mention the BLM protest effect?
The timing would seem to fit 🙄
The increase in cases is too much to be caused by these events. They weren't, ultimately, all that high risk. But they were pretty much coincidental with relaxing of lockdowns (both official and unofficial)- at least partly because they probably wouldn't have happened at all in the early stages of lockdown.
So, basically no.
Ask the members of Joint Biosecurity Centre (JBC)… they are supposed to be setting it, according to Johnson. Who are they…?
So it’s currently being set/not being set to apparently self-conflicting intermediate levels, by members of a Biosecurity unit that will be operational in the future?
As confusing as a Putin statement to the nation.
Anyway, ignoring the BLM squirrel, meat packing plants in multiple countries now cited as the source of multiple flare ups. The footage of infected migrant worker homes being fenced off and guarded in Germany is very unsettling.
Does this mean the Science community is starting to distance itself from what Boris is doing?
Comments have been pretty clear on that. Ministers decide. Advisors advise. Professors brief the media.
As for a second wave? I'm not convinced of a "wave". Personally I think we are heading to a time when there will be five circulating betacoronaviruses (there are currently four plus one errr pandemic). With winter coming, the virus becomes more stable in the cold and seasonal transmission as people spend more time indoors. We will at least protect those in nursing homes a lot better this winter.
I've analysed this week's excess mortality - London back to baseline, midlands a little higher than 10-year reference range. But excess deaths have halved week-on-week, faster than COVID deaths, which is pleasing.
I don't expect a vaccine (ever actually - and certainly not long-lasting immunity), but I do expect treatments, and there are quite a few antibodies ready to undergo testing.
Not hearing a lot about the JBC, but it is to replace SAGE and provide endemic data-driven support. Probably indefinitely if this eventually becomes endemic.
As to the bozometer - well we're about four-two-threeish. Maybe. We aren't at Five and I don't expect to go to One. Not a single quantitative measure for any condition or decision making. Read into that what you will.
Had a long day... 🙁
TiRed thanks, yr response (and data) was appreciated
TiRed re this:
With winter coming, the virus becomes more stable in the cold and seasonal transmission as people spend more time indoors.
Would it be appropriate to surmise that the UKs recent spells of unusually hot weather have contributed to a more rapid decline in the Virus than perhaps our lockdown process might otherwise have provided?
well we’re about four-two-threeish.
That's a number that can only have come directly from Priti Patel!
My PhD in Theoretical Physics and 25 years experience highly resents that fact! It's a highly technical concept I 'll have you know!
And Kryton, I believe the lockdown has shown a more rapid decline, which may have been helped a little by the weather. Strength of lockdown appears well-correlated with speed of decline. See Sweden for the counter-factual - it's probably where everyone is going eventually (with better protection of nursing homes).
The increase AND decline in London have been markedly faster than elsewhere. I think that some of this is public transport-related. I'd stay off the trains/tube for a while, personally.
It Would appear to be kicking off everywhere again
Surely it's a given that relaxing lockdown will create a second hump? Isn't it simply a case of keeping it to low levels (whatever that might mean)?
The crowds gathered were generally outside with most participants wearing some type of face coverings. If they'd had gathered indoors e.g. NEC, then you'd really expect a spike
BBC News headline is potentially 40 million doses of Imperial's revolutionary C19 vaccine ready by middle of next year... If it works.
Thanks Tired nice to hear a voice of reason rather than the panicked doom mongers who post relentlessly negative comments and go into overdrive around each relaxation phase. So where is the spike that was predicted from the last set of relaxations? Numbers have consistently gone down albeit rather slowly. Yes there will be localised break outs in all countries that have not completely closed down borders and isolated themselves. We are going to live with this thing but hopefully we are getting better at treating it and it may be getting less deadly.
TiRed
I don’t expect a vaccine (ever actually – and certainly not long-lasting immunity),
As someone shielding/living with my 90 year old mother that's pretty depressing to read.
My partner doesn't live with me and we've accepted that we can't even hug for for foreseeable. Not helped by the fact that she works in an NHS lab.
Crap.😟
colour - IF being the operative word.
I've never had much belief a vaccine would be developed; hoped - yes.
That determines how I behave; assume all others are knobs and behave accordingly to preserve my health.
^^ Same here Frank...
Not sure why TiRed thinks there won't be a vacine. Everything ive read seemels to indicate that folks involved are quite hopeful.
I struggle to believe the pharma cos are spending so much ramping up production capacity without a fairly good indication it's going to work..
Perhaps I'm just being over optimistic, but I'm pretty hopefully that by this time next year the virus will largely be over with and we'll all be back to whining about brexit...
As someone shielding/living with my 90 year old mother that’s pretty depressing to read.
I do expect passive antibody vaccination next year - and am working on one as my day job. But the absence of lasting immunity to other coronaviruses is disappointing. The failure of SARS-CoV1 vaccines and RSV vaccines, with enhanced pathophysiology after vaccination does not impart confidence either.
The vaccine technologies of Imperial (DNA to make your muscle cells make spike protein) and Oxford (disabled chimp virus that expresses spike protein) have never delivered a single commercial vaccine between them for ANY pathogen. It is possible that ours (GSK) might be useful - it uses a traditional approach - spike antigen plus adjuvent, so maybe. But we have four endemic coronaviruses already, none with lasting immunity. Why not a fifth?
BTW some of those viruses and even the humble rhinovirus can be nasty for those at risk.
The passive antibody vaccine TiRed, what are the likely benefits to my mother,or myself as the only person that could realistically infect her?
Thanks matey.