Ref the mortality....
We have circa 100K cases worldwide with 3400 deaths, so that gives 3.4%.
The WHO mission to China didn’t find any evidence of widespread undetected asymptomatic transmission so I’d expect there isn’t a great deal more than the 100K that has been diagnosed to reduce the calculated death rate.
Out of the 100K only 56K cases are resolved, so the remaining 44K still may potentially die. So just looking at the resolved cases where people either died or recovered the mortality is 6%.
I’m struggling to see why Whitty thinks we’ll get away with 1%, but I hope he is right.
10% need mechanical ventilation in ICU so it will only take 7-8K cases in the U.K. before our free 7-800 ICU beds are taken. Then the death rate will likely be closer to 10%.
I think we probably need to start thinking about more serious containment measures as seen in China before the numbers overwhelm the NHS - I can see this happening within a couple of weeks.
Bah! Toilet roll is yesterday's news!
Baby wipes are where the real action is at now.
I've already invested. It's the new Apple.😉
Ref the mortality….
We have circa 100K cases worldwide with 3400 deaths, so that gives 3.4%.
But that figure for cases is just positive tests. There will be many more mild cases unrecorded so bring the rate down. THe UK Chief Scientific Adviser said on R4 this morning his best guess was 1% or less.
So anyone under 50 with no underlying medical conditions probably has a very low risk.
The government's planning for a worst-case scenario suggests 80% of the UK population will be infected with coronavirus, with a death rate of around 1%.
However, Sir Patrick said he expected it "to be less than that".
But that figure for cases is just positive tests. There will be many more mild cases unrecorded so bring the rate down.
That’s not what the WHO are saying....
Bruce Aylward, World Health Organization Joint Mission to China:
"I think the key learning from China is speed — it’s all about the speed. The faster you can find the cases, isolate the cases, and track their close contacts, the more successful you’re going to be. [...]
People keep saying [the cases are the] tip of the iceberg. But we couldn’t find that. We found there’s a lot of people who are cases, a lot of close contacts — but not a lot of asymptomatic circulation of this virus in the bigger population. And that’s different from flu. [...]
China got patients in treatment early and have highly sophisticated health care treatment procedures. They are really good at keeping people alive with this disease. They have a survival rate (with a mortality rate of just under 1% outside of Hubei province) for this disease I would not extrapolate to the rest of the world. What you’ve seen in Italy and Iran is that a lot of people are dying.
Panic and hysteria are not appropriate. This is a disease that is in the cases and their close contacts. It’s not a hidden enemy lurking behind bushes. Get organized, get educated, and get working."
Source: Vox Interview
This might be the funniest thing I’ve ever seen.
At least the Aussies are doing their best to keep us amused
I actually used to live in Wetherill Park, it was shit
I’ve just been to Boots asked the person in aisle what they thought was best for cleaner for killing Coronavirus.
Ammonia Cleaner they replied.
I apologised as I thought they worked there.
Coop is limiting med purchases now I see. The 2 near me anyway. Fair few toilet rolls in stock though.😄
I heard that declaring an emergency is the mechanism the USA use to release emergency funds from state and federal coffers. There may not be an actual emergency yet, but they’ll need money to put everything in place to prepare for one.
Having spoken to a nurse over in the US, they have patients who will only turn to medical attention when maggots are emerging from wounds, due to the costs involved.
I assume declaring a state of emergency will mean treatment for those without the insurance or the cash for the 'deductable' for the very expensive test/treatment and the figures will start to look a lot different there.
People keep saying [the cases are the] tip of the iceberg. But we couldn’t find that. We found there’s a lot of people who are cases, a lot of close contacts — but not a lot of asymptomatic circulation of this virus in the bigger population.
May be true but what I would do is carry out 10,000 random tests in the UK. All people who don't think they have it, haven't reported it etc,.
If the results show 0 people have it great, if they show 10 have it then bad as that could mean that 70,000 people have it in UK. My money would be on it not being 0
I agree Kerley, that would be an interesting test. I guess just too expensive. Also if I remember rightly, we don't have an antibody test, so that test would only capture those currently with it, not recovered.
Practically, I wonder if that knowledge would change the response
Turning to god won't be of any help
https://catholicherald.co.uk/lourdes-shrine-closes-healing-pools-as-precaution-against-coronavirus/
Why Italy ? and why those specific regions , did they all go on a mass pilgrimage to Wua Tan Clan in January and a load of people shipped it back with them ?
Maybe they have an aversion to soap and water, who knows
Also, if there 2 mutations , 1 being more virilant than the other , if you get the mild one are you immunised against the aggressive version , or can they tag-team and thats the killer blow?
If we get to full blown , widespread uncontained infection rates and the country goes into lockdown we are screwd . Selling beer to pubs with no customers is never going to happen.
Government experts are talking to the FA re football crowds, but if we go that far might as well shut all gyms ( warm , sweaty , damp shower rooms, lots of hand contact ) swimming pools/ sports centers , night clubs , bigger cricket games, wimbledon , F1 , Goodwood x 2 , BSB ,All music festivals that are over say 500 people , Concerts , Exhibitions , Ride London , London Marathon , Major horse races ,RIAT . plus hundreds more events that thousands of people flock to on a weekend . - cornwall
Be ok to go fishing , golf, bicycle, row, open water swim , rambling , fell running
Selling beer to pubs with no customers is never going to happen.
My local was as busy as usual last night. Come to think f it have a slight headache this morning.
My local was rammed too. And we all elbow-punched each other, which means the message is getting through.
Thank God eh.
🤷♂️🤦♂️
For those wondering if its OK to ride during the coronavirus, yes, if my local trails are anything to go by today, it was mobbed full of riders and hikers looking for an excuse not to wear masks or horde toilet paper.
If the results show 0 people have it great, if they show 10 have it then bad as that could mean that 70,000 people have it in UK. My money would be on it not being 0
There’s 164 confirmed cases out of population of 66m, sadly 2 deaths. I prefer facts as opposed to maybes.
I'm using this instead of Happy Birthday for hand washing. Seems more appropriate.[img]
[/img]
^^ the Lords prayer?
Looks Sandwich is off to buy some toilet roll.
Also, if there 2 mutations , 1 being more virilant than the other , if you get the mild one are you immunised against the aggressive version , or can they tag-team and thats the killer blow?
Conversely, I heard that people are possibly at risk from reinfection - patients who have been infected, recovered, and then testing positive again. It's not known if it is the tail of the original infection or reinfection. It is known for people to lose immunity but over such a short period? I'm doubtful but I'm not qualified in any way for anyone to just believe 'what I heard' as gospel
Off to that there London tonight for a couple of shows.
What's the best way to get some space on a packed tube carriage? A loud phlegmy cough? Chuck a roll of Andrex down the other end? Or just try and start a conversation like we used to do?
Says stay away from pets? Can my dog and cat get it!!?
they’re just a vector between you and other householders. No point trying to use separate rooms /crockery / bathrooms so that you’re not touching the same surfaces etc and then patting the same dog
It doesn’t give you the total number of people who catch flu.
It can't hope to really because 'having flu' in itself isn't something many people have to declare - its measurable if its so severe that you need to seek treatment. But on the only occasion I've had flu I didn't go to my GP - partly because it takes over a fortnight to get an appointment and partly because (in the absence of any any underlying health concerns or complications) I don't envisage there being anything a GP could do to make me better.
At the moment you'd expect C19 numbers to be more accurate of because the condition is under such scrutiny - it newsworthy and its also notifiable - theres are duty on people who are / think they might be infected to make that known.
Where figure accuracy will also differ between the two conditions though is our understanding of the mortality of flu is largely backwards looking - we can look in retrospect at various seasonal outbreaks and seeing totals of notified cases and totals of fatalities. Clouding the understanding of C19 is the fact that we're in the middle of it (or I guess right at the start of it) - it seems to take around a week from an infection being apparent to it being fatal. We're tending to read about to total of infections to date and comporting it to the total of fatalities to date - but we should be comparing the fatalities to date against the level of infection a week or so ago.
Tweeted by Stephen King...
This came up on FB so it must be real.
Poor bloody sods.😟
Coronavirus: Dozens trapped as China quarantine hotel collapses
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-51784167
WTF?
Buildings don't just collapse...
Edit. Reports of an explosion heard.
They probably can I suppose, or it was assisted my a gas /oxygen explosion?
Buildings don’t just collapse…
Sometimes they do if they've not been built correctly.
Pharmacy just up the road from us has closed due to suspected case. Fortunately there's only about 75,000 visitors pursuing through today.
Terrible news but let’s take stop the conspiracy, buildings collapse.
That video appears to prove that buildings don't just collapse though.
From an engineers perspective you can clearly see foul play, the manner in which the walls collapse would indicate a demolition expert using small controlled explosions.
FFS! I just came back from Tesco and 80% pasta are sold out. 🙄
Luckily there are still some chapati flour around ...
One of my children, who lives in Milan, has just said that the entire region is now in quarantine, not just those villages. He can't leave, we can't visit!
Not quite sure what that means.
My g/f works on the till at B&M, and uses hand gel during the day, because she’s handling money and her hands get dirty, obviously. Anyway, yesterday some woman saw her using it just before being served, and demanded to know why the bottle wasn’t on the counter so that customers could use it! Jo pointed out that it would be stolen almost as soon as she put it there, to which the daft bat replied, ‘no it wouldn’t!’ Jo replied, people are stealing the bottles of hand sanitizer from the wall in hospitals, so they’ll definitely steal hers! (Fact, btw)*, The woman behind just rolled her eyes, talk about a sense of entitlement big enough to have its own postcode.
*Bath RUH, one of the blokes I work with, his partners best friend works at the RUH, and it’s become a real problem there.
My local tesco extra completely out of pasta. That's 5 shelves high by 10ft run all bare. Beans very low, tinned Tom's all sold out. Bog roll down to the expensive ones. Tinned tuna still well stocked though.
Proper mental panic buying and no one within say 20 miles is confirmed afaik
Picked up a few things I normally wouldn't, those bake off white baguette, a couple of bags of tortilla wraps. Tins of tuna and beans and sausages and a couple of litres of squash.
FFS! I just came back from Tesco and 80% pasta are sold out.
I went to HiYou for some more of favourite Soya source the shelves were as packed as ever.
I suspect we will look back at the current "panic buying" a few weeks from now and current levels will seem reasonable in comparison.
The kids have got the real hand sanitizer, I'm onto the homemade stuff now. I knew that 5 litres of isopropyl alcohol would come in handy. 🙂
You looked at current prices of the stuff? IPA I mean.
You got the 70% or the 99% full Armageddon stuff?😄
My bike is going to have no paint on it but be surgically clean if the apocalypse goes away with a bubbly fart!
Drac that looks like it was a building site, no doubt someone got overzealous with 'opening up' works...
As a rule they don't fall down. Yes there are examples of shoddy workmanship in sweatshops, but a 2018 hotel in China I'd expect to be more robust...
Not saying foul play but that's bloody awful luck to be quarantined in a hotel that then has an explosion in the kitchen (that's a guess btw, can't think of another reason off that would make sense, possibly a vehicle impact, but unlikely to bring the whole thing down)
Well, my parents are very worried.
Which with age, health and 24hr news bombardment isn’t surprising.
As a rule they don’t fall down. Yes there are examples of shoddy workmanship in sweatshops,
As a rule they don’t but there’s lots of exceptions.
Using Epicyclo's cartoon post above ^^^ as a jumping-off point....there appears to be no doubt the virus originated in Wuhan; massive disruption; significant economic impacts with much more to follow as just-in-time supply chains begin to fail with resulting impact on manufacturing; pharmaceutical supply from India (major manufacturer) affected by shortage of raw materials from China.
So, huge costs; how long before noises that China should accept responsibility and provide financial 'recompense'. I know it won't happen.
Having said that, at some point covid-19 will come under control but after that how long before the next new virus from a Chinese wet market?
