Currently 2 deaths in Hong Kong at the moment out of a population of around 7 million
148 deaths in Italy out of about 4000 confirmed cases, isn't that about 3%?
stewart - see my earlier posts about supply chain and logistical impacts of Covid-19; we're on the same page about economic impacts.
India is a major manufacturer of pharmaceuticals but has limited supplies as they have problems obtaining raw materials - from China, what a surprise
Simple example but....no paracetamol on shelf? How does that relate to covid-19?
Easy - global supply chains; when was the last time anyone you know mapped the supply chain for a product? Complicated isn't the word.
As regards trump's emission - he makes a statement as if it were fact, then says it's a hunch and implicitly challenges the WHO.
He clearly knows better than 'experts'; pffft - people who have dedicated their lives to investigating and understanding but I guess that means nothing when compared to the intuative brilliance of an NYC spiv.
Pretty sure all these have been covered in this thread...
We've had a number of hotel chains report to us that occupancy is down to 20% in London from 96%. That's fine for the hotels as they've taken payments (for now), people just aren't turning up. The knock on effect is that they aren't eating at said hotels, rooms aren't needing to be cleaned etc.. As stated before the human impact (however heartless it may sound) isn't the problem it's the economic impact.
As regards trump’s emission – he makes a statement as if it were fact, then says it’s a hunch and implicitly challenges the WHO.
He clearly knows better than ‘experts’; pffft – people who have dedicated their lives to investigating and understanding but I guess that means nothing when compared to the intuative brilliance of an NYC spiv.
Well, yea, I mean Trump knows more about Covid-19 than... just about anyone
148 deaths in Italy out of about 4000 confirmed cases, isn’t that about 3%?
Yes but the point is that is the confirmed cases. What about the 100,000 unconfirmed cases?
A UK university has done some modelling and the prof was on radio 4 the other morning and they suggest Italy has at least 100,000 cases. Same goes for UK but the models suggest UK was probably in the low 1,000s.
Pondo’s totally unscientific observation of the day – London seemed a bit quieter transport-wise, but not many masks in evidence. Concerned people staying home, maybe, while us other muppets carry on largely as normal?
Not sure if it’s been said but the masks are proven ineffective even if worn airtight after 30 mins, as the interior warms and moistens with breath and actually becomes an ideal breeding ground. it’s been proven time again it’s not as impactful as SARS, Birdflu etc but we continue to panic.
Continue with Social avoidance, wash your hands and stop touching your mouth with them is the best advice there is.
You can’t stop yourself touching your mouth. Go on… try…
Not sure if it’s been said but the masks are proven ineffective even if worn airtight after 30 mins, as the interior warms and moistens with breath and actually becomes an ideal breeding ground. it’s been proven time again it’s not as impactful as SARS, Birdflu etc but we continue to panic.
There's different types of masks.. is this just surgical type masks or include FFP3 / N95 masks?
Next you'll be telling us not to chew fruit pastilles!
it’s been proven time again it’s not as impactful as SARS, Birdflu etc but we continue to panic
Coronavirus is quite clearly more “impactful” than both of those diseases, as both of those diseases were more easily contained due to the visibility of their symptoms and there has been no evidence of sustained human to human transmission in H5N1. If it had, we wouldn’t be talking about Coronavirus now as H5N1 has the theoretical capacity to mutate into a form that could kill 3 billion people.
Consider this round to be practice.
You can avoid touching your mouth if you put a mask over it.
Not sure if it’s been said but the masks are proven ineffective even if worn airtight after 30 mins, as the interior warms and moistens with breath and actually becomes an ideal breeding ground. it’s been proven time again it’s not as impactful as SARS, Birdflu etc but we continue to panic.
Yeah it’s been mentioned as has the comments about the other outbreaks. It’s been proved that masks do have benefits, Ok they won’t stop it outright but they do provide protection. As for the other outbreaks the control measures put in for those and how they transfer means they soon came under control.
We issued a directive yesterday "no global travel unless business critical"
That directive came from our main client and we now have adopted their rules too. This makes our working life awkward for implementation and transformation into sites, but the client makes the call to protect their workforce and suppliers into that. APAC has been a no-go since last week, so 4 programmes have been mothballed until further notice. Thats quite a hit to our bottom line, but thats just how it is. We've retained key staff (we don't use contractors) so I've set them off on other work that needs to be completed for future implementations.
We do see some positives, it's making planning easier and resource deployment. And our clients are supporting us though these few months. I expect summertime we will know more, but Cali calling a state of emergency does seem rather extreme (thats where our main client is based) and clients seem to be taking it all in hand in a relaxed and professional manner without panic.
My wife however seems to be in some kind of self containment protocol, having bought all manner of cleaning products and gels and what not. Giving constant missives like "don't shake hands, don't touch anything, wash your hands for 4hrs15mins because....." Frankly I think she's edging towards some sort of mental breakdown and turning her into one of those ridiculous frightened Whaling Daily reader types.
As for lyingblohards comments, to be fair to him there really isn't a fat lot people can do about this apart from personal hygiene regime that people should have been employing since childhood.. Who hasn't seen folks come out of toilets without washing their hands? dirty scabs.
My bread and butter is events and exhibition work.
We've had four events cancel so far and no doubt many to follow. So far that's been 2 in the US one in Budapest and one in Berlin. Most of our work is for pharma companies and clinical trials. The last thing they want to do is ship hundreds of doctors and nurses around the world to then take this back into hospitals.
You can’t stop yourself touching your mouth. Go on… try…
It's quite hard to do, even as you're briefing people not to do it.
https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1235681520959901696
One of my sister-in-law's friends got a call when they were in the Uni library together yesterday.
Public Health England telling him someone he was at a party with last weekend has tested positive, and I think he needs a test now.
So that's our first "personal" connection, but it's reassuring to hear PHE appear to be very proactive about it.
Just came back from a business thing in Japan, was out there for 2 weeks. Good cheap flights, very quiet plane!
Ironically whilst our client there is not allowing their own staff to business travel or gather, but we needed to be in their Offices to coordinate project planning and delivery.
Most of our clients all over the world are now cancelling any F-F meetings and travel. We're pretty good with webex/TEAMs/conenct etc, so the team are delivering virtually and at crazy times (but no one seems to mind the no travel thing).
We still have some things on the books that are pegged as F-F for April and May, but I suspect those will also be gone soon.
So, my son's school had a confirmed pupil on Tuesday evening. Looks like the pupil had not been in school since returning from a category 2 country. PHE recommended that the school remain open.
Now they have a teacher being tested and have closed the school today for a deep clean as a precaution.
Informed HR at work. They have said that if the teacher tests positive I will be sent home. Will likely be asked not to come into the office for 2 weeks. 2 girls who sit behind me have been asked to wfh today as they live with vulnerable people.
Does this mean I have to self isolate? Seems a bit extreme.
My main stupid question of the day - are you allowed to go and ride your bike on your own while 'self isolating'?
We’ve had four events cancel so far and no doubt many to follow. So far that’s been 2 in the US one in Budapest and one in Berlin. Most of our work is for pharma companies and clinical trials. The last thing they want to do is ship hundreds of doctors and nurses around the world to then take this back into hospitals.
I’m supposed to be filming at ECFS in Lyon in the summer, I did wonder about events people and used them as an example when talking about sick pay and the self employed not getting any. Small businesses and the self employed are going to be hit hardest by people staying put.
Not seen an impact yet in my main line of work (Photography) but I’m pretty sure I’ll not be working on a commercial shoot in Sofia at the end of the month that was pencilled in.
A UK university has done some modelling and the prof was on radio 4 the other morning and they suggest Italy has at least 100,000 cases. Same goes for UK but the models suggest UK was probably in the low 1,000s.
You got a link to that? If so it's both good and bad I suppose, good that it's not nearly as lethal as everyone says, bad as everyone is already riddled with it.
With regards to self isolation..at what point does it become unreasonable. I.e soon enough every time you step out the door you'll be coming into contact with someone with it, or someone who has been in contact with someone who has it. Interesting when they eventually take that call.
My main stupid question of the day – are you allowed to go and ride your bike on your own while ‘self isolating’?
One absolutely has to look after one's mental wellbeing, doubly so when working from home and isolated for a period of time. I would suggest a bike ride is a fine way to do so.
https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/coronavirus-covid-19/self-isolation-advice/
Suggests you stay indoors.
He hasnt been asked to isolate he's been asked to work from home.
Says stay away from pets? Can my dog and cat get it!!?
Besides, how on earth would I stay away from my pets if I live alone?
Informed HR at work. They have said that if the teacher tests positive I will be sent home. Will likely be asked not to come into the office for 2 weeks. 2 girls who sit behind me have been asked to wfh today as they live with vulnerable people.
Does this mean I have to self isolate? Seems a bit extreme.
Her result should be available in 24hr. Take one* for the team in the meantime
* (day off !)
My main stupid question of the day – are you allowed to go and ride your bike on your own while ‘self isolating’?
I'd have thought that getting away from people is fine however you achieve it - will also minimise "loading" of your home environment and so possibly reduce risk to those who share it
The likelihood of transmitting the virus must be tiny if you're moving fairly quickly past places and not coming within a couple of metres of anyone (except maybe in their cars when they close-pass you). Don't spit loads, go into any shops etc or have an accident & need help, and I suspect you're right within the spirit of it despite advice to stay indoors
I’d have thought that getting away from people is fine however you achieve it – will also minimise “loading” of your home environment and so possibly reduce risk to those who share it
Absolutely.
Doing Bike Park Wales uplifts might be a bit antisocial, but how often do you encounter folk out on the moors or in the woods? The only other thing to be mindful of is wiping your nose on your glove then opening gate latches, I suppose.
I was thinking...normally quite dangerous but just wanted to ask...
There seems to be general disagreement about mortality rates etc and we seem to mostly compare them to flu rates. When we read mortality rates for flu, are they so well studied at this stage that they’re based on known and “unknown” infections, given that some of us will contract “an” influenza virus but not have anything more than manflu for a few days? Whereas estimates of total population infected by Covid-19 seem to vary quite wildly.
So I guess, I’m asking, when we’re comparing mortality rates between Covid-19 and influenza, are we dividing deaths by comparable figures?
On the plus side the £4b spent on brexit and forward planning means everything is in place to deal with C19. We will move seamlessly from the shortages and rationing of C19 to no deal brexit without noticing.
The westminster government must be laughing its socks off.
So I guess, I’m asking, when we’re comparing mortality rates between Covid-19 and influenza, are we dividing deaths by comparable figures?
My understanding is yes
When groups are isolated they are studied quite closely with regular tests for covid 19 even if no symptoms, so that minor cases that usually go unreported can be taken into account in the statistics.
My main stupid question of the day – are you allowed to go and ride your bike on your own while ‘self isolating’?
If you are asymptomatic (not sneezing and coughing everywhere) I can't see how going out on a bike on your own risks spreading it. Just avoid kissing any strangers you meet on the hills.
@Deadly:
It wasn't until fairly recently (e.g. https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(14)70034-7/fulltext ) that people looked for low/asymptomatic 'flu in a meaningful way, so I think most/all numbers are based on diagnosed cases as the denominator - then again, maybe that's the more meaningful number anyway (of people who present to health services feeling ill with 'flu, how many will die ?)
With this new one it's currently massively prone to error - fewer (i.e less than one) "seasons" to aggregate, no/unreliable tests at the outset, and virtually zero testing of asymptomatic population even when they'd been in contact with known cases and some "proper" numbers could've been crunched
Besides, how on earth would I stay away from my pets if I live alone?
All my cat does is sleep in his same fluffy cushion day in day out. I'll just move the cushion outside under the lean-to.
@HH @sacredpants
Cheers.
Could you provide catering services
Different kind of Chippy ;0)
Made me laugh that did 😁
So I guess, I’m asking, when we’re comparing mortality rates between Covid-19 and influenza, are we dividing deaths by comparable figures?
My understandng is No, for the UK anyway.
I linked to some Department of Health reports up there somewhere ^. They estimate the number of deaths attributable to seasonal flu. They do not even try to estimate the number of cases of flu.
The best they can do is the number of pepople seeking advice from GPs about cold and flu symptons.
They dont give an estimated mortality rate for flu a they have no idea how many people actually have it.
If somebody with a better understanding of medical statistics would read the same report and correct any misunderstanding, I would be obliged.
So I guess, I’m asking, when we’re comparing mortality rates between Covid-19 and influenza, are we dividing deaths by comparable figures?
They dont give an estimated mortality rate for flu a they have no idea how many people actually have it.
If somebody with a better understanding of medical statistics would read the same report and correct any misunderstanding, I would be obliged.
I'm not that expert but, the cheif medical officer on the radio this am said something to the effect of:
*paraphrased from a half remembered interview on R4 this morning*
We have an antibody test for flu so can see if you have had it, over a few years we built up a picture of how many people catch it for every diagnosed case [in China and in the west] so have a very good idea of transmission and mortality.
At present there's no such test for covid so we're having to make best guesses. A test is being worked on and hopefully once it's available those best guesses will be born out and we'll be looking at a mortality rates of <1% but at present modelling on diagnosed cases only gives a much higher figure.
A really crude version of Mortality is pretty simple - deaths/no of cases.
You can break it down into age categories by obviously grouping the data up and doing the same sums.
Flu cases are modelled on tons of factors with a few mentioned above, also taken into account hospital episode data for previous years, population data etc, vaccination rates, you can then forecast how many cases we are expected to see based on which strains are expected this year (also modelled on various strains and what we've seen). The ONS have some really good data for it all publicly available.
Although it was a few hours ago now,
...but Cali calling a state of emergency does seem rather extreme...
I heard that declaring an emergency is the mechanism the USA use to release emergency funds from state and federal coffers. There may not be an actual emergency yet, but they'll need money to put everything in place to prepare for one.
This might be the funniest thing I've ever seen.
https://twitter.com/7NewsSydney/status/1235467169346928645?s=20
Here's the latest flu figures from Public Health England
The latest Public Health England (PHE) report published at 2pm on 30 January 2020, shows that seasonal flu continues to circulate across the UK, although activity is decreasing.
Over the last week, GP consultations with flu-like illness decreased from 10.3 per 100,000 to 9.0 per 100,000 and continue to stay below baseline levels.
Flu hospitalisation and intensive care admission rates also decreased from 1.39 per 100,000 to 1.05 per 100,000 and 0.13 per 100,000 to 0.10 per 100,000 respectively – suggesting flu is having a low impact on hospital admissions as well as intensive care unit and high dependency unit admissions.
The report also shows that in week 4, 2020, statistically significant excess all-cause mortality by week of death had been seen overall in England.
Currently, 71.6% of adults over 65, 43.1% of adults with a long-term health condition, 42.8% of pregnant women, 41.8% of 3-year-olds and 41.1% of 2-year-olds have received the flu vaccine.
At the same time last year, 71.2% of adults over 65, 46.7% of adults with a long-term health condition, 44.8% of pregnant women, 45.0% of 3-year-olds and 43.0% of 2-year-olds were vaccinated.
It doesn't give you the total number of people who catch flu. Unless they do some sort of statistically significant random sample using the test dangeourbrain mentions, I don see how they could work it out.
I might try do some more reading on it if I have time.
Top Tip: Avoid is catching C19, going to an A&E 'in the Midlands' and sitting there for a few hours before telling anyone you feel ill 'with flu like symptoms'.
Why the panic over toilet roll?
Last time I ran out of big roll I washed my arse over the side of the bath.
Things are getting serious.... The Starkbier (strong beer) festival in Munich is likely to be cancelled...!
Not much gets in the way of a Bavarian and their beer.
A few schools now closed in and around Munich, too. Not surprising given the first case in Germany was just down the road.
The media in Germany are writing about Patient Zero as it were is from Munich. Something to be proud of.... 😁
... federal officials changed guidelines for testing after a whistleblower complaint. The complaint claimed some federal health workers had been allowed to interact with quarantined Americans without proper training or protective gear.
In Thursday’s whistleblower complaint, a top official at the Department of Health and Human Services said workers from the agency were not tested after being exposed to quarantined evacuees without full protective gear. Some of those workers flew back home on commercial airlines, the complaint said.
Another issue emerged after the first U.S. case of coronavirus of an unknown origin surfaced in northern California on Wednesday. State and federal officials disagree on how long it took to get approval to test the woman, the Associated Press reported. But one hospital memo claims that hospital officials could not get approval to test the woman for four days because she did not meet strict testing criteria. Those criteria included travel to China or exposure to someone who had traveled to China. The case is suspected to be the first instance of community spread of the virus in the United States.
“This was a clear gap in our preparedness, and the virus went right through the gap,” Ali Khan, M.D., dean of the University of Nebraska College of Public Health, told the AP. So, late Thursday, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention moved to close that “preparedness gap” by broadening its testing guidelines. Adding to the problem, state and local health officials say they do not have enough testing kits, as the first batch of kits the CDC sent out to state and local health departments were flawed, and new ones are still being manufactured.
