Millennial Hipsters to be banned from saving your lives!
This is what it must feel like to make up the front page of The Mail.😄
piemonster
Member
Well, my parents are very worried.Which with age, health and 24hr news bombardment isn’t surprising.
To be honest mate, that could be handy. Been chatting to a friend today about her parents who are intent to just carry on regardless it would seem. They are definitely in a high risk category.
I'm deeply concerned myself as I'm a carer for my elderly mother. I'm taking every precaution I can but I'm still bricking it.
You got the 70% or the 99% full Armageddon stuff?
It needs to be diluted down to 70% anyway. If it’s neat it evaporates away too quickly and doesn’t have time to kill anything.
^^ I was wondering about that as even with the 70% stuff it evaporates within a few seconds.
It needs to be diluted down to 70% anyway. If it’s neat it evaporates away too quickly and doesn’t have time to kill anything.
I followed the WHO recipe. Has a bit of water in it.
So down to about 70%? Didn't see advice from WHO on this, cheers!
It's not official advice, I think it's just what they tell outbreak workers in dodgy places to do if they run out of the factory stuff.
Cheers mate, just found some other info that seems to say 70% is about right as you mention.
Got some 99% arriving too, so glad I checked this out.
Northern Italy to Quarantine 16 million people
Someone mentioned this earlier I think as his son was in Milan?
Bloody hell. Strangely seems more chilling to see a western democracy need to resort to this.
Like I said earlier, when this sort of stuff hits the news here and even happens here.... We haven't even begun to see true panic buying yet. S***.😟
Happening thick and fast tonight, looking at the headlines in the papers, if taken at face value:
Upto 3 million volunteers are expected to volunteer in the NHS with legislation being made to allow them to return to their normal employment after the crisis.
Councils being sent projected death estimates.
Supermarkets rationing canned food, dry pasta and UHT milk etc.
Anyway...
I won't be going to asda tomorrow afternoon that's for sure. Hell, people kick off over a flat screen TV these days.Lol
"exciting" times.....
Are we just delaying the inevitable?
Part of me thinks let's get veins infected and get the while thing over and done with....
So basically northern Italy is a no go, in or out?
Part of me thinks let’s get veins infected and get the while thing over and done with…
What does "over and done with" mean? We're in one of those things where the numbers don't click with people.
Let's say 1% dead globally
That's about 76 million
Any idea what the impact of 76 million dead has on any number of areas?
Financial markets
Public services
Industry
Education
Social standards
Etc
There is no ripping the band aid off for this
Any idea what the impact of 76 million dead has on any number of areas?
Sounds dramatic doesn’t it?
But let’s not forget that the normal global death rate is currently sitting at around 60 million, with the birth rate being 150 million. So even if all 76 million projected COVID deaths are over and above ‘normal’ deaths this virus will most likely not even cause a net population decrease across the globe, just a temporary slowing. But actually, consider that the demographic most likely to succumb to COVID are the elderly with multiple comorbidities. The fact is that this demographic are largely ‘next to go’ anyway; so your 76 million dead actually is probably more like 15-25 million more than the usual death rate, globally, with a predicted lower than usual death rate the following years. So you know, not so dramatic. And that’s if the mortality rate of COVID has been correctly estimated, which is yet to be seen. There is an awful lot of ‘worst case scenario’ planning (which is fair enough in and of itself) being gleefully reported as the likely factual outcome, when the reality will likely be less dramatic.
Yup V8 said the press will be reporting the worst case scenario. Especially if only read headlines.
Follow it online
https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
people are stealing the bottles of hand sanitizer from the wall in hospitals, so they’ll definitely steal hers! (Fact, btw)
I've a friend in Lancaster who is physio.
Someone snuck in and stole the box they had in a store room of small hand held gel bottles, plus most of the ones sat on desks on on walls in treatment rooms.
As you can imaging, physio's use them all the time between patients.
Part of me thinks let’s get veins infected and get the while thing over and done with….
I suspect there will be big changes here within 2 weeks...
This virus is now out in the wild in the UK, Infections have gone up 10X from 20 to 200 in one week. If that continues unchecked we’ll be at 2,000 next week, then 20,000 the week after.
In Italy 10% need mechanical ventilation in intensive care to keep them alive.
We only have 7-800 spare ICU beds in the UK.
10% of 20,000 is 2000 requiring ICU in 2 weeks.
Anyone spot the problem!
1% death rate once this gets going is wishful thinking.
Watched this and it would explain a lot about why it’s so difficult to contain.
Nah, it’s just a cold mate....
those bake off white baguette, a couple of bags of tortilla wraps. Tins of tuna and beans and sausages and a couple of litres of squash.
Well, you'll be just fine when the world ends...
Italy is drastic, but sensible. It's the 'carry on regardless' folks who spread things like this the worse.
"Wash my hands? Never". "Sneeze into a hankie? But it'll spoil the line of my cardy."
You don't need to keep going to the football when you might give your bugs to someone who can't take it.
My kids are really looking forward to GB schools closing. They will be disappointed when it co-incides with the Easter break.
Who needs good hygiene control when you have the lord...
https://www.devonlive.com/news/devon-news/worshippers-angry-no-holy-water-3925973
I suspect there will be big changes here within 2 weeks…
This virus is now out in the wild in the UK, Infections have gone up 10X from 20 to 200 in one week. If that continues unchecked we’ll be at 2,000 next week, then 20,000 the week after.
In Italy 10% need mechanical ventilation in intensive care to keep them alive.
We only have 7-800 spare ICU beds in the UK.
10% of 20,000 is 2000 requiring ICU in 2 weeks.Anyone spot the problem!
1% death rate once this gets going is wishful thinking.
This x100
If we 'get it over with', there will be an even bigger spike in cases, many more people will die. All of this is an effort to flatten the spike so that more people can receive ICU care. There will still be an excess of seriously ill people over ICU beds.
So it is imperative that we all change our behaviour pretty quickly. Social distancing, handwashing, all of it.
Our case numbers will be confirmed in the tens of thousands within a couple of weeks. That means that there will be thousands of people out there now with the virus, spreading it, but not yet properly ill enough to be tested.
Part of me thinks let’s get veins infected and get the while thing over and done with….
The opposite is the case… infections needs to be spread out (time wise)… so that the NHS can cope… if we all get it at the same time, there won’t be the equipment or staff to look after the more serious cases, and the death rate will be much higher.
Edit: bah, sorry Martin, I thought I was reading the last page, and missed your post making the same point far better.
Our case numbers will be confirmed in the tens of thousands within a couple of weeks.
Bit dramatic. Care to show your working? Still, Covid19 becoming endemic in the population is probably inevitable, I agree.
Hmmm. Maybe the title of this thread should be changed to the scaremongering and panic thread?
People; wash your hands regularly, cover your mouth when you sneeze/cough, don’t lick strangers. A (pessimistic) 1% death rate is still a 99% survival rate. Don’t be a drama queen. There’s going to be some hard work to do in the next few weeks and months. Be part of the solution not part of the problem.
Don’t be such a drama queen.
I’m alright jack.
Your chance of survival (assume a slow spread) is probably well above 99%, probably close to 100%… others are far more at risk of this ending very badly for them.
Don’t overestimate the effectiveness of the general public following hygiene instructions… the ‘work’ will have to involve reducing contract and groups being isolated. And those groups aren’t the old and venerable/vulnerable, they are those most like to spread the virus (quickly).
The cases are most likely already in the 10,000s. Remember only 15,000 tests have been done across a population of 70 million...
Bit dramatic. Care to show your working? Still, Covid19 becoming endemic in the population is probably inevitable, I agree.
Hmmm. Maybe the title of this thread should be changed to the scaremongering and panic thread?
People; wash your hands regularly, cover your mouth when you sneeze/cough, don’t lick strangers. A (pessimistic) 1% death rate is still a 99% survival rate. Don’t be such a drama queen. There’s going to be some hard work to do in the next few weeks and months. Be part of the solution not part of the problem.
The main problem is people have their heads in the sand, thinking this is not much worse than a bad cold.
The 10x growth a week is based on what happens if people maintain their behaviours as of right now. We have grown from 20 to 200 in one week, if that continues, 2000 next weekend, 20000 in 2 weeks.
Looking at the WHO situation reports Hubei went from 258 (approx where we are now) to 11k in 2 weeks but they were putting in much more robust containment that we are.
Once all the ICU beds are full - in a couple of weeks if we don’t do something the death rate could be closer to 10%.
It’s better to start “panicking” a bit now and significantly change out behaviours rather than in a few weeks when the hospitals will be overwhelmed.
Bit dramatic. Care to show your working?
https://twitter.com/jodigraphics15/status/1236425549301665794
We are currently pretty much following the spread curve of Italy and France, about two or so weeks behind. We are currently at day 38, that puts us approaching 10,000 cases confirmed by day 48-50. Obviously Italy has introduced some severe restrictions, we haven't, as of yet.
We have grown from 20 to 200 in one week
This is a simple misunderstanding/misrepresentation of the facts. We have gone from 20 to 200 (ish) CONFIRMED CASES in a week. To extrapolate actual infection numbers from that is fraught with problems. I would suggest the fact that lots more people have been tested is the main factor in why more cases have been discovered.
The cases are most likely already in the 10,000s. Remember only 15,000 tests have been done across a population of 70 million…
Yet only 2 deaths which suggests the mortality rate is extremely low or your guesstimate isn’t as good as the scientific version.
Yet only 2 deaths which suggests the mortality rate is extremely low or your guesstimate isn’t as good as the scientific version.
Deaths vs confirmed cases is tricky because the lag between incubation, diagnosis, and death is reasonably long. So deaths should be looked at vs the confirmed case numbers for a couple of weeks ago, when we only had a handful of confirmed cases. The actual death rate will become clearer when we have a much larger pool of confirmed cases.
Looking at the global numbers of resolved cases, ie died or recovered the death rate is around 5.6%
It will be interesting to see how the USA comes out of this.
Trump is using the head in the sand tactic combined with the "it will go away" stance!!
Cleverly he's put the VP in charge so when it goes wrong he can point at home and say "it's his fault... nothing to do with me!"
That's higher than the WHO 'snapshot' of 3.4%, which, in itself, is unreliable because we don't know how many people actually have had it and not been part of the official figures. We know it's a mild illness in the majority of people. The only thing we can say with a high degree of certainty is that death rate seems to be much higher than in seasonal flu.
To go back to the original point, if we 'just get it over with', then our death rate will be higher than if we try to manage demand for the 6,000 or so ICU beds in the UK, by changing our behaviours radically.
So, how many of you are taking your elderly mums out to a restaurant for Mother's Day?
That’s higher than the WHO ‘snapshot’ of 3.4%, which, in itself, is unreliable because we don’t know how many people actually have had it and not been part of the official figures. We know it’s a mild illness in the majority of people. The only thing we can say with a high degree of certainty is that death rate seems to be much higher than in seasonal flu.
To go back to the original point, if we ‘just get it over with’, then our death rate will be higher than if we try to manage demand for the 6,000 or so ICU beds in the UK, by changing our behaviours radically.
So, how many of you are taking your elderly mums out to a restaurant for Mother’s Day?
The 3.4% is based on the total 106K cases and 3600 deaths. There are still 42K cases that are active and 3.4% assumes none of them will die which will not be the case so that would tend to increase the percentage.
You are correct about the missed/unreported cases bringing the fatality rate down, however the WHO mission to China reported they didn’t find evidence of this.
Ref the 6K ICU beds, they are already mostly full, so only 7-800 free I believe.
Yet only 2 deaths which suggests the mortality rate is extremely low or your guesstimate isn’t as good as the scientific version.
2 deaths at a time when the hospitals are not yet overwhelmed. Have a look at some of the reports coming out of Italy. They're experiencing 10% of all hospital admissions requiring intensive care. NHS England has around 6000 intensive care beds and an average of 90% occupancy, so somewhere around 600 beds available. If we follow Italy's numbers then we only need 6000 infected to break the NHS, at which point I think CFR will skyrocket.
We only have 7-800 spare ICU beds in the UK.
10% of 20,000 is 2000 requiring ICU in 2 weeks.
I’m not sure we ever have 700-800 spare ITU beds.
Having said this, we’ve got a lot of plans to temporarily increase capacity once things get going.
This piece gives a decent sum-up
https://www.vox.com/2020/3/5/21165973/coronavirus-death-rate-explained
South Korea gives an alternative insight to what happens if you have a proper look at community transmission. There just isn't enough data to give an accurate prediction for the UK, above the 'signficantly worse than flu' one.
Panic buying has arrived in Kinross.
Don’t worry, still plenty of loose fruit and veg!
This piece gives a decent sum-up
https://www.vox.com/2020/3/5/21165973/coronavirus-death-rate-explained
South Korea gives an alternative insight to what happens if you have a proper look at community transmission. There just isn’t enough data to give an accurate prediction for the UK, above the ‘signficantly worse than flu’ one.
That is a good summary.
As mentioned in the article South Korea leads the way in testing, having tested well over 100K, so it’s fair to say they probably haven’t missed many cases.
They have 50 deaths from 7313 cases, so a CFR of 0.7%, as they are likely catching these very early and not missing many cases.
....but you can’t really use this until all cases have concluded
I read the typical progression in China for death is week 1, mild illness. Week 2 deterioration requiring oxygen, week 3 death. So some of the 7313 cases have that to look forward to.
Assuming it might take an average of 10 days to die from this from getting a diagnosis then it would be more accurate to look at the deaths today (50) vs. The cases 10 days ago (1261). This gives a CFR of 4%.
I think at the moment we should be focusing more on the CFR once our ICU beds are gone, which will be worse.
As I had a spare minutes, I looked at all the Department of Health and Social Care tweets and graphed the number of tests and the number of positives. As you can see from the graph, the number of positives is not going up in proportion to the number of tests being done. I'm not quite sure what this means, but i'm guessing, nothing good.
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Can't disagree with any of that. Simply not enough data on outcomes and actual case numbers, and actual CFR is likely to vary significantly depending on the quality of government response in terms of testing and isolating vulnerable people, and the state of our health system at peak.
the number of positives is not going up in proportion to the number of tests being done. I’m not quite sure what this means, but i’m guessing, nothing good.
It’s probably a lot to do with the fact that (for now) testing is only done on patients with a history indicative of a high likelihood of coronavirus exposure, rather than randomly testing the population. Ie; if you go looking for it, you’ll find it, and get better at finding it. I don’t think any firm conclusions can be drawn form your graph at all.
In the U.K. It’s still 3 infected cases per million people. If you wanted to catch it how would you go about getting it?
I think a sense of perspective is needed. That said a good bit of fear spread in the media will help the great unwashed start taking sensible precautions.
I went to HiYou for some more of favourite Soya source the shelves were as packed as ever.
At the Chinese supermarket I only buy certain items only. Yes, soya source is one of them but I mostly by Thailand food ingredients. I have various types of soya source but I tend to go with favourite soya source that is KIMLAN (Taiwan made (not Vietnam) but the low sodium is available from the Chinatown supermarket only). As for rice wine the one that is sold in Tesco (Taiwan made) is the one I normally buy and Tesco is cheaper too. Oh ya, I have plenty of soya source that will last me a while.
In the far east we have banned Chinese flights coming into Borneo for the time being so many of them have flown to the capital instead, and the locals are already not happy ...
