According to Boris..
"One of the theories is perhaps you could take it on the chin, take it all in one go and allow the disease to move through the population without really taking as many draconian measures. I think we need to strike a balance."
Basically.. just to eff all then. Let everyone catch it. This is to get it out over and done with because they don't have any other plans.
I did think perhaps I could deliberately infect myself early on so I can at least get some good hospital care before the rush later on when everyone else gets it and there is no room at the hospital.
I provided an alternative Rayban rather the “OMG! It’s mutated into something worse”.
Those Brazilian mutations don't appear to be the same.
John out of interest do you have any links that discuss the role of the sequence/sequences that are different in the L and S type due to the SNP's? eg is it something that would change how it binds to human cells?
I think Bojo should take one for the team, as he suggests. On second thoughts, he is more likely than most to spread it through person to person contact.
newer is a but nastier so detected quicker and spreads slower. But what do I know.
I agree, not the easiest paper to look at. In what context are they using the term 'aggressive' - ability to spread or lethality?
So if true, the aggressive Chinese measures might have reduced the harm to the rest of the world - if they have managed to make the older type more prevalent.
Pretty cool and hopefully good news.
the pdf is all there seems to me. Working atm and really really not my area. The english ain't great (who'm I to talk) but I think they're saying a newer form emerged with nastier symptoms but this faces greater selection pressure (i.e. cases are picked up and isolated so it can't spread as fast) and that the earlier milder version is spreading.
Those Brazilian mutations don’t appear to be the same.
So there’s 3 mutations? Don’t panic, don’t panic!
the pdf is all there seems to me. Working atm and really really not my area. The english ain’t great (who’m I to talk) but I think they’re saying a newer form emerged with nastier symptoms but this faces greater selection pressure (i.e. cases are picked up and isolated so it can’t spread as fast) and that the earlier milder version is spreading.
That's how I read it as well. Cheers! I'm off work with the sniffles so I'm bored as ****.
/\ That's what I think the Telegraph article reports if you cut through the BS - apart from when it says the more virulent strain L-type represents 70% of cases. That doesn't sound right.
That doesn’t sound right.
I suppose that at least 90% of cases have been in China, so if it was more prevalent there, then that would skew the overall percentage. I'm more interested in what type is currently in Italy, as that looks like it will be the dominant strain here.
It's quite possible that the S strain has been circulating widely elsewhere undetected, and it took the L strain killing lots of people in China in late December/early January to wake up the authorities.
I saw a chart of current 'seasonal flu' incidence in the US. It seemed, IIRC, to be unusually high in a large number of states, which makes you slightly suspicious that there might be something else mixed in with those stats.
Cheers! I’m off work with the sniffles so I’m bored as ****.
Have you got enough loo roll?
Thanks Martin. Makes sense.
Have you got enough loo roll?
No.
I intend to wipe my arse with next doors cat if it comes to it.
Seems fair
So if true, the aggressive Chinese measures might have reduced the harm to the rest of the world
I've seen other reports that suggested a fatality rate of c. 6% in Wuhan but only 0.9% in the rest of China, but that doesn't quite tally with outcomes seen in other outbreaks either.
Time to stop the public transport commutes in/to/from London, if you've not already stopped... 25 new positives.
Pondo's totally unscientific observation of the day - London seemed a bit quieter transport-wise, but not many masks in evidence. Concerned people staying home, maybe, while us other muppets carry on largely as normal?
25 new positives, is pretty low really, it hasnt exploded yet.
25 new positives, is pretty low really, it hasnt exploded yet.
Bear in mind that most of the cases in the UK are imports from other countries or close associates of them. Only a handful of locally caught cases so far (8?). So when the local transmission ramps up I expect we'll start to see more intervention in public gatherings etc.
Has anyone checked to see if there’s a **** off asteroid on its way?
Squirrel!
I see trump is questioning WHO stats....'I have a hunch they're wrong'.
Being taken as fact by some Fox news contributors.
After his presser on Tuesday, it's clear he has no understanding; no surprise there.
Cannot post link at present but will later.
That paper suggests that the newer form MAY be more virulent (speculates regarding mechanisms - the mutations appear "trivial" * and don't affect the spike - binding site for which is ACE2 which (I read) is high prevalence in mouth/tongue, so snogging of patients is out 🙁 )
IF it is more virulent, then yeah, quarantining of pts was only happening initially if/when they became symptomatic and the shit version may therofre have slipped the "net".
*they also appear to be described as polymorphisms, not mutations which are different but, err, similarish ... but I'm not a specialist and I don't really know WTF that all really means in armageddon terms (I'd have said that you can't have a "newer" polymorphism, since there have to be the pre-existing options to allow variability in the first place but that seems to be wrong)
Have you got enough loo roll?
No.
I intend to wipe my arse with next doors cat if it comes to it.
Gives you a lovely feline down below.
Sounds like a recipe for Cat Aids tbh. I'm pretty sure you're supposed to use a puppy.
The shit would clump on my Bedlington pup and leave loads of sheep like wool stuck to my arse...
Thinking about it, my Bedlington would probably be offended if I used the cat as of all things a bloody cat is my Bedlingtons best friend.
raybanwomble
Member
The shit would clump on my Bedlington pup and leave loads of sheep like wool stuck to my arse…Thinking about it, my Bedlington would probably be offended if I used the cat as of all things a bloody cat is my Bedlingtons best friend.
I`m sure that would have been really witty and amusing if the audience here were 9 year olds
So who did rayban used to be then, before his name change?
how long have you got? 😂😂😂So who did rayban used to be then, before his name change?
Go on then....
Intrigued now. 🙂
I`m sure that would have been really witty and amusing if the audience here were 9 year olds
I’m sure this would be relevant here if the audience here were sensible, normal individuals.
Big trade show at excel in two weeks has been ‘postponed’. Can’t say I’m to upset.
Lots of trade fairs and events being cancelled or postponed throughout Europe.
My third week without any work due to the above.
My bread and butter is events and exhibition work.
Spoke to a few clients today and they've all said that there's not much on the horizon for at least the next month,maybe two.
Normally im happy for a day or two off, but this is getting a bit much.
Well that sucks Alpin, what is it you do?
A lot of the big corporates have travel bans. So no exhibitors and no customers.
Put back until dec apparently.
I`m sure that would have been really witty and amusing if the audience here were 9 year olds
Well I laughed.
That’s a bummer Alpin.
Maybe I should offer Boris my back of a fag packet key board worrier three step education and control programme:
Nail the Basics - up your biosecurity, keep calm, it's not business as usual
Step it up - minimise contact with people, be considerate (dont hoard), life is going to be different
Do as your told - follow the instructions, don't be a dick, this will pass.
Lots of trade fairs and events being cancelled or postponed throughout Europe.
My third week without any work due to the above.
Yep - a lot of us gig-ecomony types better tighten our belts. Film and TV here - everything hits the buffers when the insurers won't cover the risk to big name cast or diispuption to schedules. Been working with a few Canadians recently who originally relocated to the UK after the Canadian film industry was torpedoed by the SARS outbreak back in the day - so it'll all be a bit groundhog day to them.
This new advert seems to have nailed the zeitgeist.
🙂
I'm a chippy. Got into the event side of it around 10 years ago after I moved to Germany.
Even smaller, private events are being cancelled because companies don't want to be seen to be adding to the problem.
Ironically, I decided to move to Germany in 2008 when site work in the UK started to dry up around the middle of 2007. De ja vu?
Bollocks.
The most annoying thing is that for the German citizenship I need a proper job (i.e. Employment) . I've got a job lined up with a company I've been working with for years. Only problem is, they're not going to take me on without any work coming in.
Nightmare.
Could you provide catering services if this ends up being mass quarantines in temporary hospitals?
Been a chef in a past life?
Could you provide catering services
Different kind of Chippy ;0)
This is to get it out over and done with because they don’t have any other plans.
Sounds like the usual MO of this ‘new’ administration.
Link to support my earlier post re trump knowing better than WHO
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/05/trump-coronavirus-who-global-death-rate-false-number
^ sounds about right for trump and his anti-vaxxing conspiracy nutjob crowd, lets hope the entirety of his support dies off over the next few months/years due to their anti-vac beliefs.
Link to support my earlier post re trump knowing better than WHO
So, behind the headline, he is saying that the reported 'death rate' of 3-4% may be too high as most people are not that affected by it and dont report it, so if you counted those who did have it that rate would be a lot lower.
Not usually one to agree with him but this seems a classic case of Guardian Headline espousing their editorial stance with the actual article content not really stating anything that most of us dont already know?
Currently 2 deaths in Hong Kong at the moment out of a population of around 7 million in a reasonably densely packed city, hit way earlier than Europe, with Id say at least half of those either in China or had close contact with someone from China in Late Jan/Early Feb due to Chinese New Year.
As I've said before, I suspect the economic hit from this, and the actions taken to try to contain it, is going to have far worse long term consequences than the actual effect of the virus itself.
