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Having said that my two friends in Stockholm had it (suspected) and their children seemed fine. Could the kids have bought it back from nursery? It seems the obvious route given that they were both isolating in the same way as us over here...who can tell though..
That reminds me, I should give them a call...
Why not Tired seems to think the numbers are fairly predictable
Based on things remaining largely the same, the epidemic phase will be over by July with a half-life of 10 days. That’s why July is important. After that, slow and gentle reintroduction of contacts, be they schools, shops, restaurants, and maybe eventually offices.
Picking established players reduces this cost.
Indeed. But Serco?
Certainly we should be driving them lower before open things
This is all anyone is asking for. And they are talked down in the same way as those who were pushing for closing things down earlier, with much the same arguments. The timing is wrong. The government is not waiting for the information and means to be in place before making he move.
Is it me or does it seem a little pointless. Our school seems to be emotionally and practically having issues with the concept of re-opening in such a bizzare way, and I can't say I blame them. Surely lives are adjusted now, people have adapted? A relaxing of the rules on who can send their kids in (based on work requirement) would surely be a better approach? Opening for a few weeks now rather than hold of when it might be very different in September doesn't seem to be significantly disadvantaging anyone. It feels more ideologically driven to me than through any practical use.
Well they’ll have to step up 😉 . Pressure will be on them too, because of the high profile nature. Be more worried about their other activities. Opportunity cost.
That’s why July is important. After that, slow and gentle reintroduction of contacts, be they schools, shops, restaurants, and maybe eventually offices
TiRed, we are all small shop and are taking the hint that we can open from June 1st. Do you think they will bump shop opening to July?
What would this evidence look like?
I know that in Iceland they ran genetic tests on the positive cases so they could track the routes of infection, so that study could provide some evidence.
Closer to home our schools have remained open for some children throughout lockdown, so there should be some evidence by now that teachers in those schools are at a higher risk than the general population. Of course they could pick it up travelling to and from school, so it wouldn’t be definitive, but if they are not showing increased risk by now then that would be evidence that there isn’t significant transmission from children to teachers.
We’ll know more by July, and ‘should’ having testing and trace/track/isolate available… why take a punt on start of June Zippy? Are you looking at selling from the doorway, with staff retrieving what customers want from the shop? Should work with your trade and staff levels. No mingling indoors. That could begin ASAP. And when can we get you mailing chocs to all our homes? Take our money!
A relaxing of the rules on who can send their kids in (based on work requirement) would surely be a better approach?
Given the fact that kids dont have to go, it could end up as that via the back door.
All this talk of taking decisions a school at a time is bollocks, schools will be under massive pressure to open.
Is there any evidence of transmission from children to adults?
Not a great deal, but absence of evidence is not evidence of absence. We know that it appears to cause less severe illness generally in children, which theoretically would make it harder for them to spread it, but then again, younger children tend to be less good at stuff like personal hygiene which may mitigate this advantage by spreading around whatever viral load they carry.
The shortage of direct evidence of transmission child to adult is probably more a factor of the way testing is carried out, and the suggestion that a child is less likely to be require hospital treatment. If a child is the first person in a household to acquire the virus, the first person in that household who is likely to be tested for it is the adult they pass it too when they develop more severe illness.
It seems sensible to me to start with the assumption that, as little humans, children are more likely than not to acquire and transmit the disease in some fashion, perhaps as efficiently as larger ones.
A lot of the 'children don't spread it' messaging strikes my cynical mind as more economically motivated than scientifically rigorous.
Closer to home our schools have remained open for some children throughout lockdown, so there should be some evidence by now that teachers in those schools are at a higher risk than the general population.
Given the very low numbers of kids in the schools and the even lower numbers of staff and the very low risk anyway I doubt it would be noticeable and it wouldnt relate to increasing the numbers of kids and staff anyway as that would increase the transmission routes massively.
so it wouldn’t be definitive, but if they are not showing increased risk by now then that would be evidence that there isn’t significant transmission from children to teachers.
I dont think the absence of evidence is evidence.
Or a counter question is there any evidence it does not transfer
Almost impossible to prove a negative so not helpful. Noticed you completely failed to answer jonm81's question above about your personal criteria for re-opening schools, maybe try to get something constructive into the debate rather than the constant ranting.
As the children's commissioner said the squabbling needed stop. Would be nice if the unions engaged on the broader issues and general welfare of the kids, not just the perceived risk level as it stands at the moment from Covid-19. Maybe offer to extend half term for a further 2 weeks for teachers and kids, maybe 4 weeks, and then go back with a much shorter summer holiday. You still get the same holiday, just take it more flexibly in this time of national crisis.
Personally I don't know if now's the right time to go back, much as I am desperate for my two to go back I think it probably isn't. General lockdown should have been extended to allow the kids to go back, we've squandered the minimal wiggle room we had with the R number to allow people to have days out again. For it's worth I don't think any form of social distancing will work in schools, it's already broken down in other areas of life.
Teachers already have a bad enough reputation, the currentb union stance isn't helping that perception. The unions could probably wrong foot Boris very easily with some lateral thinking rather than just shouting NO, NO, NO.
You still get the same holiday, just take it more flexibly in this time of national crisis.
Teachers won't, they worked through Easter to have the vulnerable kids in, that won't change for upcoming holidays.
The general feeling of this thread has got worse over the last week – more moaning, doom and gloom, more sniping at each other. Miserable buggers
Hardly surprising. Think it mirrors reality. Increased divergence in rules between the devolved nations and the first signs of lockdown easing is leading to confusion and fear which aren't the best bedfellows for happy camping.
I've noticed a big increase in social media vigilantism along with a big increase in lockdown breaking (in Wales so should still be strict).
Before we get another ‘lazy teachers and their holidays’ trope going again… the teacher in this house is paid for 2.5 days a week, but has been working 5 days a week (plus usual weekend planning and marking) including Easter, including both bank holidays. Supporting kids with home learning, when many are not in environments where that are conducive to that, eats away the hours.
MCTD why not, some teachers and support staff worked through Easter, most didn't. The take up of that option for key workers and vulnerable kids has been woefully low. There's also an army of supply teachers out there currently not working, all dbs checked, ready to step in and cover some of those supervisory duties allowing the teachers that have worked through Easter some much neeeded respite.
It would just be nice if the unions got a little creative and helped out the boot into Boris and his appalling handling of the situation rather than appear to be behaving as badly as the government.
Kelvin who's mentioned lazy teachers, i think AA mentioned a while ago holidays are contractual, and we know many teachers normally work during at least part of their holiday entitlement. Its not about working harder, it's about being flexible to try to make the best out of the bad situation Brois has got us in.
Noticed you completely failed to answer jonm81’s question above about your personal criteria
I did, go back and have a look.
You still get the same holiday, just take it more flexibly in this time of national crisis.
You dont seem to realise teachers were in school supervising kids all easter and will be all half term
Personally I don’t know if now’s the right time to go back, much as I am desperate for my two to go back I think it probably isn’t
So we agree?
maybe try to get something constructive into the debate rather than the constant ranting.
I have tried and I havent ranted, just because some dont like what I say it doesnt mean I'm ranting, if you cant see that fine my life will continue and I'll continue to respond when people start posting bobbins.
My personal feeling is that, rather than trying to shoehorn kids back into class for the fag-end of the year in June, we would be better served using a period of lower transmission for a bigger national push to get improved facilities in place for when we return to lockdown in wave 2 later this year. We squandered the last period, let's not waste this one.
I have a lot of sympathy for the teachers' position. If we get this wrong now, all you will end up with is a lot of self-isolating or seriously-ill teachers, and a shortening of the period before school has to be emptied again anyway. I'd rather we protected those teachers so that they are available to teach, even remotely.
I'm sure there must be ways to try to improve the study environment for lots of kids at home, along with ways to arrange safer face to face teaching directly to smaller cohorts of pupils, even if it means a much-reduced in-person timetable.
We need to accept a new normal in terms of education, and child care provision.
(Yes, I'm aware that the home study environment is pretty bloody awful in a lot of families, but I guess you have to make the best of what's possible).
appear to be behaving as badly as the government
Just because the Daily Mail has it as a headline, doesn’t make it true.
We squandered the last period, let’s not waste this one
THIS
The problem is Boris & chums aren't interested in solutions from the unions. They've shot from the hip and won't be persuaded they are wrong.
As with everything, we don't have the numbers to make this work properly. Some teachers supporting the kids working from home, and classes of 10-15 requires twice the normal numbers. And more space.
We are running a school system at max capacity with no flex in normal times.
AA,
1. No you really didn't.
2. Yes but not all teachers by a long shot, most on a Rota, and disproportionately SLT in most schools. But it's a time of national crisis, time to pull together and contribute a bit extra where you can.
3. Reluctantly yes, i probably do agree now is not the time to go back, it could have been, but the government stuffed it up.
4. Yes you really have ranted, count up the number of posts you've made to this thread alone.
Since you missed it, here's what a_a said
What I’d like to see before schools have large numbers of kids back is a government not obviously bull shitting me and the deaths per day down to low tens not hundreds.
So low numbers before easing restrictions, seems sensible to me, as is what a lot of actual smart people have been saying/countries that aren't run by cretins are doing.
The reason the ‘battle lines’ are being drawn at return to schools is because one of the main stumbling blocks to returning to work (and hence restarting the wider economy) is childcare. Nobody to look after your kids? No RtW for you then...
I’m amazed at some attitudes displayed towards what is and isn’t acceptable risk (and we’re talking here of potential fatal or life changing consequences) FOR OTHERS. We’ve already seen how exactly this cavalier attitude to other people’s live’s has played out for the healthcare workers (and probably more directly comparable, care home workers).
It is abundantly clear that the risk of infection is significantly increased within the internal environment. The guidance for self isolation after contact with someone who has cv-19 is just 15 minutes. Think about that for a minute before you push people into situations where it doesn’t matter that your socially distant if the building itself is the perfect breeding ground.
I’m an engineer and I’ve had a preliminary look through the literature published by REHVA, CIBSE, BESA & the likes about preparing buildings that have been shutdown for months, fit for occupation under the new ‘rules’. The recommendations are for limiting CO2 concentrations to 400ppm. For comparison BB101 (guidelines on vent, thermal comfort & IAQ in schools) states that under normal circumstances this should be limited to less than 1500ppm during the occupied period (natural vent) and 1000 for mech vent/hybrid). I can tell you from my experience getting people to open a ****ing window to reduce co2 levels (classrooms should have traffic light systems so teachers know) and prevent overheating is not easy... achieving much less (albeit with only 25-30% of ‘normal’ occupancy densities) will be problematic. Once it hits autumn and is cold with the windows open...
Basically what I’m saying is most buildings are unlikely to meet the new guidelines for occupation. Whether these makes them ‘unsafe’ is dependent on the infection risk within the occupants. Currently I am unable to square that circle. Whilst I might be happy to take that risk, I live alone and it would affect only me, alone. Others have to consider other members of their family/household.
Do you want to play covid roulette? How few ‘bullets’ do you deem acceptable to be in the revolver before you’re prepared to take the risk?
ETA: I believe the IoD has requested clarification from the government whether they will be free from criminal prosecution should someone die in the reoccupied buildings at the government’s urging (H&S at Work Act; provide a safe working environment...). I’m not sure how the person in charge of reopening a school can make an informed decision with the current situation... glad it’s not me!
The general feeling of this thread has got worse over the last week – more moaning, doom and gloom, more sniping at each other. Miserable buggers
As @ferrals says, there's fear, confusion, boredom, frustration, a fair chunk of anger (at the Government for being utterly inept, at "other people" for actual or perceived infractions...) and a lot of stress, some of it from uncertainty, financial insecurity, change of routine and so on and it's all building up into a massive melting pot.
I'm not saying I've got an answer, I'm not sure there'll ever be a "normal" to go back to.
seems sensible to me
You could almost say it was “common sense”, if the government hadn’t already weaponised that term.
I’m not sure there’ll ever be a “normal” to go back to
This is one thing that is beginning to wind me up - some poeple (in the wider world, not here) still seem to think that if we stick at the current lockdown for another month or so everything will be right as rain and we'll go back to our old ways instantly.
I also have no answers. Getting pretty ****ing fed up though even though I know I have it easy compared to many.
*embarrassed cough*
Didn't we used to have a separate returning to school thread so we didn't completely **** up this one?
There are quite a lot of kids have kept attending our school (~15% of the usual attendance)
15% of the normal attendance is not "quite a lot".
So the school you are talking about, like other schools, is currently handling a very small proportion of their roll. How do you expect the social distancing measures to work if you significantly increase the number of kids returning to school?
It's highly unlikely that we're going back to pre Covid education arrangements any time soon. That's why I put quotes around the word when I wrote about returning to "normal" schooling.
Of course schools may reopen in a different form. The problem is that the government are floating the idea of reopening without providing any concrete, practical proposals about how that would be done. Yet again, they've just not bothered doing their homework.
Yes you really have ranted, count up the number of posts you’ve made to this thread alone.
Having a discussion is not ranting of you dont like it feel free to reduce your posting.
the teacher in this house is paid for 2.5 days a week, but has been working 5 days a week (plus usual weekend planning and marking)
Yeahbut the coffee shops are shut and you’re both stuck at home. What else is there to do? 😉
I have immense respect for all in the teaching profession. My sister was a deputy head and the hours she put in were just staggering. She loved it and it was her life’s vocation.
One thing I have noticed when permanently working from home, is that it is much harder to switch off. Particularly as I work for an international company, stating with Japan time meetings, moving to U.K. then finishing with west coast US time, where my manager is based. I could work continuously.
What else is there to do?
Well, we now have better coffee than any of the local coffee shops. Practise makes perfect.
is that it is much harder to switch off
Very true. And teachers tend to be rubbish at switching off anyway, as they do lots of work at home outside paid hours even in more normal times.
TiRed - same in our household. My wife works 4 days/week, with Friday off. She is currently working 14hr days, and her day off too. Luckily I am currently a househusband/dog walker/homeschooler/cook.
Not sure I agree with the reason why but I'm definitely interested in the details
Whilst I might be happy to take that risk, I live alone and it would affect only me, alone. Others have to consider other members of their family/household.
Thing is my points have been based on what we should all do as a country and then I get people accusing me of crying or ranting or not being prepared to increase my risk.
Problem is the risk is actually to the vulnerable and the country as a whole. Its clear the government wont or cant enable schools to change. Basics like hot water are not reliable in most schools in my experience, toilet facilities were based on when schools were built and had lower numbers in them, ventilation in rooms is appalling, cleaning is bordering on non existent past floor sweeping and bin emptying. Schools are full to the brim with no spare capacity and just returning reception, one and six to my sons school with 10 kids per room staying in those groups all the time will leave the staff and buildings at capacity.
This is one thing that is beginning to wind me up – some poeple (in the wider world, not here) still seem to think that if we stick at the current lockdown for another month or so everything will be right as rain and we’ll go back to our old ways instantly.
This is something that really grates with me: the old normal is gone. We can work to getting close to what we had before with some parts of life seeing very little change but other areas of our lives are going to be changed forever. The sooner everyone realises and accepts this we can move forward to the new normal.
Metalheart
I’m amazed at some attitudes displayed towards what is and isn’t acceptable risk (and we’re talking here of potential fatal or life changing consequences) FOR OTHERS. We’ve already seen how exactly this cavalier attitude to other people’s live’s has played out for the healthcare workers (and probably more directly comparable, care home workers).
Losing a parent is still devastating. To lose both sounds like carelessness.
but yes...
Without testing, the risk of transmission increases exponentially with how many families attend the school. By the time the ones that develop symptoms do it's too late and anyone even thinking a primary can be safe are just deluded.
Do you want to play covid roulette? How few ‘bullets’ do you deem acceptable to be in the revolver before you’re prepared to take the risk?
They are playing the joker's though and talking about tabloid hysteria and "at risk children being safe(r) in schools" though of course we will not see numbers.
Exactly how many kids died from neglect last year out of how many millions?
Having a discussion is not ranting of you dont like it feel free to reduce your posting.
The problem is when the shouty tone of the discussion makes people think "**** it, I can't be bothered any more".
Then it ceases to be a discussion.
Exactly how many kids died from neglect last year out of how many millions?
Not sure what the latest figures are but used to run at between 1-2 deaths a week.
Deaths being the tip of the iceberg.
Not sure I agree with the reason why but I’m definitely interested in the details
I very much disagree with the motivation, but I'd love to see the information made public.
Could bite him on the arse if his case that the government went too far actually reveals that they didn't go far enough!
They are playing the joker’s though and talking about tabloid hysteria and “at risk children being safe(r) in schools” though of course we will not see numbers.
Exactly how many kids died from neglect last year out of how many millions?
What I’m highlighting is that the proper assessment isn’t being made as to whether it’s safe to reoccupy our workplaces full stop. That’s why the IoD have been seeking clarification on immunity from prosecution under the H&SaWA. Without proper ventilation how do you stop being infected by someone else in your work (asymptomatic or otherwise)?
What is the risk? Don’t you think we really should find out before we reoccupy?
The problem is when the shouty tone of the discussion makes people think “**** it, I can’t be bothered any more”.
Fair enough, dont think I've been shouty in my tone though, even if such a thing were possible in writing.
All I have done is point out some obvious flaws in a posters comments, like he knows "exactly" what his daughters done all day because he had a 2min chat with there teacher and other such rubbish.
Exactly how many kids died from neglect last year out of how many millions?
About 100 in a normal year. It's probably not higher because schools, childcare, clubs, etc., are all trained to identify and intervene where they feel it is happening.
There's also a 0.5% death rate in under 5's (not 0.5% of under 5's, but 0.5% of children born will not make it to 5 years old) https://www.theguardian.com/society/2014/may/02/uk-child-death-rate-scandal-poverty and that is heavily linked to socio-economic deprivation.
A_a, you are the only one throwing around terms such as stupid and idiotic and making personal attacks. Pretty much the definition of ranting.
We need to get to the new 'normal'. That has to include education so we have to work out how to do that. Schhol are not going to suddenly increase in volume, capacity or number of teachers. If you expect to wait until that happen then they will never reopen. There has to be some form of cost benefit analysis and if that means they reopen in some way then that is what has to happen
This has just turned into another echo chamber like the brexit thread so have at it.