Forum menu
Del
Bit unfair chaps. Consider his position.
Appreciated but a bit of banter is all good. (Appt with consultant today I'm very optimistic about)
It looks like i’m getting it in the next couple of weeks so will report back if I grow scaly green skin
See what I'm saying is this government has a history of making political appointments and where it can't creating a kwango.
The effect of that is a reluctance to feed non ideal news upwards.
You tell your boss who has to tell their boss .. until ultimately someone has to tell Boris and as it goes through the levels managers are increasingly "politically aware" so a culture develops.
There is a great study in the CAIB (Columbia space shuttle accident investigation board)
The whole report is rather long but here is a summary of this part by one of the board.
The other side is the very low public confidence in the government actually telling the truth, even by its supporters.
They were numbers for illustration, not the reported numbers. Pfizer had a split of 8/162 for 170 infections which is 0.049. Moderna was 11/185 or 0.059. These are remarkable results for symptomatic infection.
AZ did not give the absolute numbers in their press release, only the combined result - probably under pressure to make the number as “big as possible”. It’s most likely 3/30 for the low dose and 27/71. Previously I think they stated 60%, but it now states 62% so these are the numbers.
27/71, the true efficacy, is not 8/162 or 11/185. Not even close. Whether it matters for hospitalisations (none in era has trial) is the question.
Sorry for the confusion.
@stevextc - I agree that organisations rot from the head - see Kingspan / Celotex at Grenfell. If you're the 22 year old being told what to do by the MD you do it.
In this case though I trust the integrity of the middle layer. They've all got families and will be directly affected and will do the right thing.
On a different note, eldest daughter got a message from a close school friend this morning who has tested positive. We kept her off the school bus and prepared for 2 weeks self isolation, informing school absence line. School phoned back to say that they'd assessed her contact and Department of Education guidelines said she didn't count as a contact. She's now back in school.
Weird thing is I've read the Guidance for Contacts and other than not being contacted by Track and Trace I read it as she needs to self isolate. It we do that though, the school will count it as unauthorised absence.
Is it just me or is the system a bit screwed up?
Murrey
I agree that organisations rot from the head – see Kingspan / Celotex at Grenfell. If you’re the 22 year old being told what to do by the MD you do it.
I could tell some other stories but yep, that's the point.
The implicit threat doesn't even need to be that real... just a case of "can't you reword that to make it sound better or less bad we don't want to upset the next layer up who don't understand the technical details"
In this case though I trust the integrity of the middle layer. They’ve all got families and will be directly affected and will do the right thing.
Using my earlier example I doubt the NASA engineers really wanted to kill people. It's more a case of following instructions and passing the responsibility.
I've been in similar positions (though at least not life and death) and it's very stressful unless you pass the responsibility upwards. Understanding managers who say "yes but I have to tell such and such and they won't even understand the technical reasons"
I don't think/hope/believe in this case it will be anything dreadful but this cultural/management style seems overly familiar.
Weird thing is I’ve read the Guidance for Contacts and other than not being contacted by Track and Trace I read it as she needs to self isolate. It we do that though, the school will count it as unauthorised absence.
Is it just me or is the system a bit screwed up?
See my earlier post ... Jnr is back today.
I hear on the news today, that we’re first to approve the new vaccine but that Europe claim their checks are safer than ours.
That's political posturing - the MHRA are better than the French and German equivalents.
The FDA, by contrast, is a slick professional organisation of full-time employees.
+1 the people who stress me out the most are FDA inspectors. I've always found that their approach is that you are a criminal and you are guilty until proven innocent.
Just like the CAA for aviation
Speaking diplomatically about the CAA, that means nothing.
I wouldn't be at all surprised if political pressure was applied to the MHRA in a Trumpian attempt to be first to release, but I'd be astonished if it influenced their decision.
Wouldn't have the slightest objection if I was offered the vaccine. Can't deny however that I'm quietly pleased that ~30,000,000 will be testing it first though.
MHRA are in here auditing as we speak, it ain't a pleasant experience I can assure you.
Well this is my day job and I’m one of those in the middle. I can tell you that the rigour with which data is collected, produced, analysed and debated is staggering. It’s also routinely inspected. I have colleagues who’ve had to stand up in US courts to defend just these points under aggressive cross examination.
More likely, things go wrong with over-interpretation or absence of information. A new drug will typically be approved for a chronic common indication with about 1000 patient-years of exposure. More for some areas (cardiovascular) less (sometimes much less) for rare or terminal conditions like oncology. Vaccines have more patient-years of data, and for these vaccines, assume a median of four months, giving about 7000 patient-years of exposure. That’s typical for other vaccine submissions. You don’t wait long after unblinding a trial for submission. Nothing has been skipped - the agreed (with FDA and EMA) endpoint for registration was infections at 28 days post last dose, not 280 days. The sample size is defined by the power to detect the difference of interest and the rates of events (infections). The collation and analysis of data will have been expedited by throwing people at it, not cutting corners.
If rare events occur, they may not reveal themselves in Phase 3 trials. Anything rarer than about 1/10000 is challenging. Once used widely, post-marketing monitors safety on an ongoing and never ending basis. Vaccines are no different in this regard.
Sometimes disaster happens unwittingly not due to malice. Thalidomide is the textbook example. It passed ALL required safety tests and clinical studies of the time. It was only after release that it showed the devastating teratogenic effects in the first trimester when used for morning sickness. The US did not approve thalidomide NOT due to these effects. It was because the Phase 3 study showed a signal for increased peripheral neuropathy. Right decision for the wrong reason and basically luck. The outcome was increased scrutiny and additional animal teratogenic tests. Thalidomide when used for the right patients is an amazing drug.
[tl:dr] there is always a limit to what can be seen in Phase 3 trials. Rare events are rare and will be monitored in wide use very carefully. Never ascribe to malice what can be explained by absence of knowledge.
Speaking diplomatically about the CAA, that means nothing.
I was talking about independence not competence - I’m familiar with the CAA too but thats another story 😉
I've experienced audits from CAA, FAA, EASA, and many other aviation authorities (Chinese Aviation Authority are off the scale bonkers) but MHRA and FDA are another level.
nobeerinthefridge
How do you end up on the receiving end of inspections from both the FAA/CAA and the MHRA?
I'm in Engineering, bailed out of aviation 6 years ago into Pharma. Different business, but Engineering is Engineering.
Do we expect the discussed issues with the Ox/AZ trial to affect MHRA certification?
We have audits in clinical from the individual patient clinic visits (where we employ site monitors), through to data entry, right up to generation of the submission pdf documents. It’s a continuous chain and when the agencies come, they expect to see every part of that chain. All of it in our systems - which they have access to. We also of course submit all the source data and analysis codes for that data to regenerate all analyses. The FDA routinely run their own analyses on the data (and everyone else’s too!).
Manufacturing of the drug product is even more heavily inspected! That’s noBeer’s day job.
As I said, it’s not malice or poor practice, it’s knowledge gaps.
I always love the idea that fda inspectors are actually allowed to carry guns as the are federal agents.
the thought that always amused me was the idea of someone running across a car park with paperwork being winged by one to stop them getting away.
On a serious note, all the gmp inspectors and agencies I have interacted with (Fda, mhra, cofepris, ema, and others) are all independent and take their roles incredibly seriously. The are nice people generally but they are incredibly thorough and will dig if there is something they don't like (annoying when it is their opinion though not in the regs).
As tired said, the vaccines are safe for use of authorised, but there is always a risk of rare events causing issues -this is the reason for the mhra yellow card system which is for reporting adverse events and also the reason pharma companies have pharmacovigilance groups that follow and monitor for any safety issues post approval. in addition the pfizer vaccine has been approved for temporary use so if anything comes up during use the chances are it will be pulled from further use immediately
Edit for context- I worked for 12years in gmp qc labs and now am a gcp auditor.
the levels of auditing required are substantial and by both internal local groups and internal independent groups. This is in addition to corporate audits and of course the regulatory inspections
Do we expect the discussed issues with the Ox/AZ trial to affect MHRA certification?
I expect the guys at Cobra the manufacturer who filled the vials for one arm of the OX/AZ study are sweating. I would still expect approval of the standard two doses. Not the low dose until another trial.
Presumably they can refine the size of dose in a trial run parallel or at least concurrent with their phase 3? In which case if they get approval based on phase 3 two full dose they can expect quick approval on changing the volume of the first dose if that is demonstrated to be more effective?
Steve, I understand your concern and more broadly I've heard it voiced by plenty of others for various reasons, but in my view you're over-thinking. There are many reasons this is happening so quickly. The primary drivers in my view are that there really is no limit to the amount of money that can be thrown at this objective and neither is there a practical limit to test subjects.
What I find really notable about the guests on the r4 program, who are in positions where knowing your shit is not optional, when asked if they would take this vaccine not one has hesitated to say yes.
Also, for those in their 20s, 30s or 40s who don't feel they're at any great risk from the virus, and view getting the vaccine as more of a potential risk for little gain, it's worth pointing out that by the time it's available to them it will already be in the arms of those for whom the risk vs. reward calculation is quite different. The risks will be well known by the time it's their turn.
Probably best to avoid threads entitled "The Coronavirus Discussion Thread" then 🙂
You can hardly complain about that considering you clicked on it.
There are tons of other topics on here. Coronavirus has been limited to just a few threads
, I understand your concern and more broadly I’ve heard it voiced by plenty of others for various reasons, but in my view you’re over-thinking. There are many reasons this is happening so quickly.
I think batfink's post a few days back covered this very well, think he's involved in Australian drug licensing. It answered all the questions I had
If I read it correctly, we have half a million threads on the forum and someone came on this one to complain about Covid threads 🤔
This thread really is one of the best things on STW right now. It's fascinating.
Having seen other Coronavirus threads on other forums this one stands out as having real frontline insight from a group of people who are willing to share what can’t be learned from watching a YouTube video on how to be a pharma/vaccine expert.
There is also very little dick swinging just a willingness to educate and explain.
It’s priceless.
For anyone who doesn’t see the value in that they can piss off to Facebook.
Del
Steve, I understand your concern and more broadly I’ve heard it voiced by plenty of others for various reasons, but in my view you’re over-thinking. There are many reasons this is happening so quickly. The primary drivers in my view are that there really is no limit to the amount of money that can be thrown at this objective and neither is there a practical limit to test subjects.
What I find really notable about the guests on the r4 program, who are in positions where knowing your shit is not optional, when asked if they would take this vaccine not one has hesitated to say yes.
Firstly good news from consultant ... that out of the way I don't personally have any ieeues with the vaccines, indeed just spoke to my octagenarian mother saying the same.
With her auto immune system and age risk of complications from SARSA-Cov19 >> possible risk from vaccine.
However my mother is a perfect example ... she has zero trust in anything this government tells her and its been lower every week since she voted for Brexit and believed that.
@mudmuncher: no
Two key points:......
@gray, thanks, I see where I was going wrong now.
If it’s 29/70 really need to think in terms of 140 infections rather than 99 which is what it would likely have been with an ineffective vaccine.
It’s 3/30 (90%) and 27/71 (62%), combined 30/101 (70.3%). I think they originally said 60% and 70% but this is now on the press release. They definitely saw 131 total infections. I'm running an analysis to compare the various vaccine arms.
If you're rich you don't have to quarantine
Makes no logical sense. Lewis Hamilton despite being rich and in a tremendously well organised F1 bubble got COVID. Why would we allow random CEOs "whose work creates or preserves 50 jobs" skip the sensible rules to stop transmission?
Makes no logical sense.
What's this bit?
as of 15 December people will be able to pay for a private coronavirus test to reduce their isolation time to as little as five days, as long as they return a negative result.
Is this only for execvs and sport/celebs or is that for everyone.
Still no-one has explained to me why someone with 2 negatives tests a week apart is a bigger risk than someone who hasn't been tested.
Makes no logical sense.
I just watched the ITV report on Russia. Absolutely horrific. Body bags piled up against walls and in corridors, virtually empty cemeteries now full.
There is absolutely no doubt that countries with authoritarian, (excluding China) populist leaders have faired very poorly in their response to Covid.
Including the UK I'm ashamed to say.
To our resident experts - are we close to licensing antibody treatments for severe COVID and will any be available?
Only dexamethasone has been shown to be efficacious in doubleblind randomised clinical trials. The next on the list is a class of antibodies against a pro-inflammatory cytokine called GM-CSF. We will see. Then will come the antiviral antibodies, but these have failed in US studies not hospitalised patients. Antivirals should be given early for prevention. Other treatments for emergency use are the JAK inhibitor baricitinib that has emergency use. I collate a database of about 80 treatments undergoing testing. There are many assets but relatively few modes of action.
One could claim that prevention by vaccination is a good outcome. Reducing COVID-19 to a dry cough would be a very good outcome with sufficient vaccine coverage. That coverage will be 2H21 when the mainstream spike protein vaccines come to bulk up capacity.
Nothing approved on the immediate horizon I am afraid. GMCSF has four mAbs in trials.
I think batfink’s post a few days back covered this very well, think he’s involved in Australian drug licensing. It answered all the questions I had
Welcome. I'm based in Australia (previously the UK) - but I run global trials. Not involved in covid, other than figuring out how to keep my trials running through various states of lockdown. Currently trying to figure out how to run a lung cancer study in Bangladesh and Sri Lanka.
Fun fact - one of my trial patients in China (Wuhan!) had covid back in Oct 2019. We didn't know it was covid at the time - just a really nasty pneumonia that required ICU.
Is this how Liverpool managed to go from the worst in the country to being dropped to tier 2?🤔
2nd / Booster injection on the Novavax trial for me yesterday. No side effects etc.
Speaking to the consultant no body he has seen on either the active dose or placebo has mentioned any side effects..
Back in 2 weeks for a general check up.
The Pfizer vaccine was mentioned, basically that in the rare chance I’m offered a dose, to call them and the will “unblind” me so I can decide.
They are hoping to know the efficacy of the Novavax one by the 2nd week in January.
Let’s hope it’s another weapon hey!
My only dissapointment is that so far I haven’t been given a lollipop or a sticker saying I was a brave boy. It’s a bloody big needle! 😂
I imagine it must be hard to get patients to sign up for a trial that has a 50/50 chance of being offered a placebo, when they think they can have Dexamethasone instead?
Considering that even now it's Joe Public's best chance of being vaccinated ASAP I'd think not.
Sorry - a drug trial in hospital on potential new treatments.
placebo, when they think they can have Dexamethasone instead?
That’s not quite how it works. Once a medicine has proven efficacy it becomes “standard of care”. Then the future tests will be against either the historic placebo patients or the active concurrent standard of care.
We don’t really like historic controls. Patients being treated in the NHS RECOVERY trial now are getting better management than they did in April - even before dex was approved. Mortality has called by 25%. Also because of this, the gap for improvement is smaller (incremental benefit) and smaller differences need more patients to show significant differences over chance.
Oncology is the classic case in point. Standard of care now looks nothing like it did ten years ago for many tumour types. Other diseases have placebo issues. It’s still just about ethical to use placebo in Rheumatoid Arthritis but not for too long. It’s not for Multiple Sclerosis trials. Instead active controls drugs are used that don’t work very well. Mild but chronic diseases and diseases with no approved treatments still use placebo, normally on top of standard of care.
Vaccines are not therapeutic, so pure placebo is an ethical option.
[th:dr] We say placebo-controlled, but normally it’s placebo plus standard of care because of ethical concerns.
I'm getting a sense that the same old 'battle-lines' are being drawn up for everyone to follow on the vaccines.
I always wonder why it's so easy to guess someones opinion on things these days, I'd wager than if I asked someone who said "masks don't work" and said the lockdown was pointless because it stopped them going down the pub, they're the exact kind of people who'll tell you that they're not having the vaccine because it's untested. You could explain, until you're blue in the face the difference between rushing something, and doing something quickly by throwing huge resources it, but there's always a Social Media factoid that's bullshit, but somehow more compelling that they can 'prove' the opposite.
Still, I'm pleased to hear that supposedly Phase 1 will reduce the number of Deaths and Admissions by 99%, I hope that's true.
I always wonder why it’s so easy to guess someones opinion on things these days, I’d wager than if I asked someone who said “masks don’t work” and said the lockdown was pointless because it stopped them going down the pub, they’re the exact kind of people who’ll tell you that they’re not having the vaccine because it’s untested. You could explain, until you’re blue in the face .....
Masks don't work, Hancock said so....
Pubs are safe ...
Care homes are safe...
Schools are safe ...
Then the same government tells them the complete opposite and you wonder why they stopped believing?
Then the same government tells them the complete opposite and you wonder why they stopped believing?
A lot of the non believers I know still think Brexit is brilliant.
Thanks Tired - that makes more sense re drug trials.
One of Madames colleagues has just tested positive for a second time. First time in the Summer she was moderately ill, this time no news on her state so far other than the test result, a positive PCR test which I believe is quite reliable for positive results.
Everything points to both test results being reliable: consistent with her Covid symptoms the first time and her contacts the second time.
USA has recorded 1 million cases in the first 5 days of December 😱😱
dan - just posted that to the 2020 election thread.
Jeez, it's frightening.
trump still says absolutely nothing; talk about blood on his hands - that's an inadequate way of describing his culpability.
I’ve just seen the pictures of the GA rally tonight. Thousands of recnecks shoulder to shoulder, no masks.
USA has recorded 1 million cases in the first 5 days of December 😱😱
If you look at the US infection graphs on worldometers, you can see daily cases sharply increase 4-5 days after thanksgiving. Suspect we’ll see the same here after Christmas.
Assuming a five-day period of mixing, schools closed rather than open, and a typical doubling time of about 10-14 days noted from Tier 1 before lockdown with schools open, I think we can expect prevalence to increase by up to a factor of about sqrt(2) or 40% over Christmas. Not doom and gloom but there will be a bump. I’d say 25% was a good outcome.
Going into Christmas we will see admissions continue to fall for another week and stabilise due to Tier 2/3, deaths falling up to a week after that and then stabilise. All cause mortality will peak over Christmas week 51-52 but stay high due to post Christmas spreading. Normal peak death is Week 2 of the year.
Seasons spreadings to one and all...
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6947e2.htm?s_cid=mm6947e2_w
The governor of Kansas issued an executive order requiring wearing masks in public spaces, effective July 3, 2020, which was subject to county authority to opt out. After July 3, COVID-19 incidence decreased in 24 counties with mask mandates but continued to increase in 81 counties without mask mandates.
I actually feel less optimistic now over the last few days. Not surprised that our cases have stopped falling now. Good that admissions and deaths are coming down, but it really wont last long.
It's not at all certain, but I anticipate cases clearly rising even before the Christmas free-for-all. I do think SAGE's suggestion of a doubling through that time is probably pessimistic, after all people won't be at work or school, it will just be family groups (mostly) and many of these must already be in fairly close contact. But it will be a further rise for sure.
Basically, it's a race to get the most vulnerable vaccinated as there's no other way we can sustainably hold out through the winter. Barely into Dec now!
but I anticipate cases clearly rising even before the Christmas free-for-all.
Two markets on London and Nottingham closed down today due to overcrowding and no distancing. It’s started already. It’s the NHS staff I feel sorry for, it seems people aren’t thinking about their Christmas which’ll be ****ed for them.
Hearing/seeing more and more comments in local news items/sites/TV from local health officials pinning the recent spread on inter household transmission.
Anyone know if that is supported anywhere, or if it could be based on proper data? Anecdotally seems to be a connection between the few FB "friends" I know who have tested positive and the same people posting pics of themselves failing to socially distance over the last few months.
(And I'm not trying to infer it has nothing to do with schools/students etc)
50% of the population is below average intelligence. COVID-19 has made it apparent who's in the lower 50%
Just because “most cases” are inter household, it had to get into the house somehow.
If you stop the person who brings it into the household in the first place - you stop the lot!
Yeah I mean it's pretty ****ing obvious that one infected person is likely to pass it on to household members. Indoors for a long time with no social distancing - what's to stop it? Just like flu and colds and norovirus and everything else.
I appreciate the comments about initial infection into a household. My question related to remarks from health officials about "inter" household transmission and not "intra" household transmission.
So do they gave access to any data that would reliably confirm that?
I do think SAGE’s suggestion of a doubling through that time is probably pessimistic,
Yes, me too. But think a half-doubling is not unreasonable over the entire period, and have said as much. Having been out today, Windsor was busy, so yes a lot of extra contacts about. Maybe cases will rise a little earlier. It’s been a week after a policy change (either way), two for cases abs three for deaths. Half term is visible in the ONS prevalence data, especially when broken down by age.
Sorry misunderstood that MCTD. FWIW my impression is that most of these assertions about modes of transmission have been poorly supported. Obviously when a group of people like a school class all go down with it together the link may be obvious, but when it's just a case of asking what someone did in the past week, it's far more tenuous because of the unknown base rate (ie, how many people did exactly the same things *without* getting infected).
My daughters school (Tonbridge) now has yr 7,8,9,10,11 all off isolating! 7-10 home until January. Y 11 back in on 14th.
Secondary household attack rates reported up to 25%. This was one of the first studies with rates half that in China
Closed confined inside spaces. My favourite being the Canadian spinning class. I’d give those a miss for a while - over 60 including secondary cases!
My infection came in via my son searching passengers at Heathrow. We never passed it beyond the house.
my impression is that most of these assertions about modes of transmission have been poorly supported.
Thanks, that was my impression, but seem to be hearing it a lot.
Update from the antipodes (beepbeepbeepbeepbeep)....
NSW have had our first "community acquired" case in about a month: A cleaner in a quarantine hotel in Darling Harbour (Sydney's equivalent of Leicester square). They have genotyped the virus and traced it back to American cabin crew who were quarantining at the hotel.
They have published the details of the individual trains and trams that she took while infectious, and are asking people to come forward and get tested.
There's also been a snafu at the airport: 2 Germans were allowed to land at Sydney an catch a connecting flight to Melbourne without quarantining for 2 weeks on arrival. This has gone down like the proverbial shit sandwich with the victorians - given how hard-won their eradication has been.
Victoria has reported 0 new cases today, marking the 38th day in a row that the state has recorded no new coronavirus cases or deaths. There are currently 0 active cases state-wide.
Meanwhile restrictions are starting to lift: Victoria's mask mandate is being softened, and even NSWs very mild restriction of only 1 person per 4sqm at indoor venues (restaurants/bars/cafes) is changing to be 1 person per 2sqm.
International flights into Melbourne are starting again - all eyes are on their quarantine procedures for returning passengers - a single leak from which (a security guard rooting an inmate - that's the official Australian term btw) was responsible for hundreds of deaths in Melbourne.
Australia and NZ are examples of how an island nation should manage a pandemic.
If only the UK had taken a strong, clear and decisive action.
Leaving politics and personalities out of it, the UK response has been abysmal with countless avoidable deaths.
Too many of the great british public are also culpable.
Science appears to be coming to our rescue.
Australia and NZ are examples of how an island nation should manage a pandemic.
If only the UK had taken a strong, clear and decisive action.
Leaving politics and personalities out of it, the UK response has been abysmal with countless avoidable deaths.
There have been a few cock-ups along the way (a whole cruse ship riddled with covid disembarking in circular quay, for instance) - but they/we have got a lot right, maybe not the first time - but pretty quickly.
In my mind, the most impactful intervention has been effectively banning international travel (compassionate travel is allowed by exception) - only citizens and permanent residents are allowed back in, and on arrival are held in quarantine for 14 days. Literally locked in a hotel room. I think we are allowing 6,000 arrivals per week at the moment. As an idea of scale the last 7 days, we've had 70 confirmed cases in quarantine hotels, but only 2 in the community. That's the whole of Australia BTW. The Victorians have given us all an excellent illustration of how important this quarantine has been.
Working within a "closed system" has allowed us to keep the numbers down to a level where we can much more effectively track and trace - the best in the world I suspect, although the south Koreans have done excellently (using human tracers much more so than an app), but also the restrictions have generally been much milder, and so are more sustainable long term.
We've had to cancel a holiday to Fiji (Fiji is closed too - so not just Australia's fault) - which has cost me about $2k, and it really sucks that my kids (2 and 4) haven't seen either sets of grandparents for one of their birthdays, and this Christmas... but there has never been a moment when I'm not glad we are here vs the UK.
My fear is that one of the grandparents in the UK will get it (all in their 70s) - and we will be so far away. I've already lost an uncle and a distant inlaw to it..... hopefully that's all, but both sets of grandparents are under instructions to ignore boris et al, and strictly self isolate until they get the vaccine. I fear that christmas and pre-vaccine complacency is going to be an issue.
Australia & NZ are examples of nations that had a zero Covid policy from the outset.
As i have consistently tried to explain elsewhere, all WE have tried to do is to make sure there is a spare bed in Intensive Care when YOU need it.
We have thus far succeeded in this limited remit, and so we can tentatively chalk it up as a win.
We can argue the toss as to whether we should have been more ambitious, but we saw it out until a vaccine was developed. So we've got that going for us. Which is nice.
^ I honestly can't tell how much of that is sincere, or sarcasm.
Australia & NZ are examples of nations that had a zero Covid policy from the outset.
No, no we didn't - in fact NSWs stated goal was expressly not eradication, but to build effective processes and systems so that further lockdowns were not needed despite clusters continuing to pop up. Victoria's lockdown was a result of one of those processes failing - demonstrating the point.
The premier of Victoria was under such huge pressure after the quarantine failures led to hundreds of extra deaths, that he had to go-in extra hard with the second lockdown - and even then then goal was only to get the rolling 14 day daily average down to single digits, not zero.
I think NZs policy only became eradication when they realized it was achievable, and again, required a second lockdown due to a quarantine failure.
I guess I agree with the the fact that the UK has (so far) achieved it's goal of not overwhelming the NHS...... however, I'd know where I'd rather live.
Yes, the UK governments goal of not absolutely burying the NHS. Or rather not burying it too much. Though that almost happens every winter anyway, enough that it makes the news but not enough that it's not forgotten by March by most of the populous.
Even at the point we are now, early in winter, I suspect the human aspect of the "NHS" is already pretty buried and burnt out.
My partner is far away from the pointy end of the NHS in a lab but is absolutely destroyed at the complacency within her own family let alone the general population and her work place.
It's not helped by the fact that the management within her department are unwilling to tell other staff when a co-worker is off work due to testing positive! I am absolutely fuming about this.
I find that absolutely f*** immoral! I won't even get into the legal/ health and safety aspect of it.
F clapping in Spring. Going out and banging on a saucepan. Well. Bloody. Done. Utter hypocritical ** many of them. Go out on your doorstep on a sunny Thursday to clap then go on FB to moan about not being able to go to the pub. God forbid having to put on a mask for 5 minutes in the co-op, the utterly terrible infringement on their civ libs. The horror! Wearing a mask for 5 minutes in a shop is absolutely the LEAST anyone can do during this. Jesus, I find it more uncomfortable to gargle Listerine twice a day after doing my teeth.
I haven't as much as hugged her since this shit began as I am terrified of passing it to the person I am shielding. My partner doesn't live with me so we have totally given up any sort of physical interaction. Not just the obvious, I'm talking just hugging/ holding hands, the very stuff that helps people get through times like this. We meet up during the week in separate cars and go for day long walks, distanced, whatever the weather as we know the risks of meeting up indoors. Not for *us*, but for the person I am desperately trying to protect through this. My partner is amazing... incredible and I know how unbelievably tough this had been for her. She could have easily walked away and I wouldn't have blamed her. We just hold out a hope that by Spring things will change. Thats what we do. We are on pause hoping for better.
This mega rant isn't aimed at anyone by the way. Ok,not anyone on this forum anyway.
If someone says to me that "vitimin D is my PPE" tomorrow though, I might just do some time for them.
Stay safe all.
Jesus.....sorry to hear all that Poop
You have a precious gem of a partner there poop. Virtual hugs from me to both of you.
Australia and NZ are examples of how an island nation should manage a pandemic.
If only the UK had taken a strong, clear and decisive action.
We should certainly have bitten the bullet on quarantine and international travel from earlier on BUT at a practical level (I'm not using this to justify the government's criminal inaction) the volume of international travel to, from and through the UK is on a completely different scale to Australia and New Zealand. That doesn't mean action shouldn't have been taken.
Some people have been absolute selfless heroes through this to protect loved ones, and others have been utter bellends. The lines between the two will get deeper and wider as Christmas and vaccine complacency creep up. More of my circle of "friends" who were posting pics of non-social distancing activities through this year are admitting that they have had positive tests, and wondering why I'm still refusing offers to meet up for a ride or a coffee.
Nobody can afford complacency. I was hearing last week of two CV victims in the one ward, 27 and 33, not obese and with no underlying conditions. I cannot believe that the Thurmaston shopping centre, and this must be replicated all over the place, car park is always rammed and there's not a proper food shop there, it's all nick-nacks. I'm beginning to wonder whether there are some people you can't frighten, even with death. Religion? Empiricism? Idiocy? Cummings? Consumerism? What's that short-term memory loss thing called again? Sadly, some'll be pushing up daisies and communing with their angels before we can unmask the truth.
One of my children has a classmate who is positive and now has to isolate for 14 days
So how does we manage school pick up for siblings ?
Should they even be in school if their brother might be positive anyway
My parents are relatively close but asking them is a no go because they are old & hi risk
Other school parents we'd normally ask are isolating themselves
The daft thing is,he'd be outdoors at all times on school pick up, so transmission chance is virtually 0
And we will now end up involving more people in our family bubble to get round this, which is much more risky
So how does we manage school pick up?
Not sure what your work circumstances are but ours have been very accommodating to let us work around that problem when we've had to. We have been very lucky, I know.
Yeah I've spoken to my boss, and he's been very helpful, or work had been split into bubble and I'm on the late shift 2-8pm, but it's an hours commute away so I'll be doing a half shift, which impacts a lot on the rest of the lab and the work I do.