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I'm not sure where @pondlife has gone to
But re his discussion about Ofcom censoring 'the science'
Here is a good example of how IPSOS is plainly not up to the job of shutting down fake news, I this case Facebook actually stepped in
https://twitter.com/mjrobbins/status/1329827545013948421?s=19
The Spectator should not be able to get away with publishing this kind of rubbish, the headline & the article both misleading & neither reflect what the study said, nor the reality.
saw that for some of the placebos it was actually the meningitis vaccine
That doesn’t help with interpretation. In the most cautious view, they go with the 60%.
There is some jest in what I say, I have a niece who is back at school and is like a different child now she's interacting with kids of her own age again so I know how important keeping schools open is. I also know there is a balance to be struck.
But it doesn't change the fact that the places that the virus spreads the most are being left open when places that the spread is much much lower and being forced to close.
I’ve got no kids but I do remember being one.
Destroying their education and future is not a viable option (even for a government who in theory care only about the short term and pensioners).
I also know there is a balance to be struck.
There is. Which is why a two week half term, and national "lock down" timed to coincide, was the right policy... but we missed that opportunity... and it's not hindsight, it was clear at the time. From where we are now (we shouldn't be here, but there you go) closing schools early is required if families are going to be encouraged (you can say allow, but in reality, that's not how this works) to mix the generations together at Christmas.
As an aside, schools around here are in a mess right now... a week longer half term would have hurt the education of kids around here far less... as long as people were told to stay at home for that half term, rather than mingle and go for trips.
I said it a few pages back, but will say it again, there is very little evidence that Tier 1 was sufficient to control spread. Places like the SW showed impressive increases in hospitalised patients, which have now tailed off since lockdown after reaching the spring peak.
Lockdown shrinks the epidemic.
Tier 3 controls spread and may shrink the epidemic.
Tier 2+ may control spread.
Tier 1 does not control spread.
All of those are with schools open. With that in mind, today’s announcements look sensible. Effects take up to two weeks to manifest in admissions and a further week for deaths.
My daughter is dropping out of her 2nd year of a-levels to do an apprenticeship in January - her teachers have given up, her school has given up, she's getting sod-all help. The education of millions is already ruined.
@the-muffin-man - It's not the end. I dropped out of A-levels twice then went to uni at 22 as a mature student after a few years of dead-end jobs. It made me more determined to succeed whilst there. It must be hard for her but life continues and it could be the making of her.
I'm not sure it's been clearly communicated... but as far as I can tell the strategy now seems to boil down to the below, in order of priority:
1) keep infections under sufficient control so NHS doesn't get overwhelmed whilst waiting for spring/vaccine
2) keep schools open
3) try to keep the economy going as much as possible given (1) and (2)
Playing devils advocate a bit.... you could argue that the current system is more or less 'working' in terms of those objectives. Note that driving down infection rate beyond what is required for point 1 doesn't seem to be on the agenda any more. Which I guess might underpin some of the approach that PHE are taking with schools etc. Public health vs. personal health?
I don't know about others but our kid are off 18th December to 6th Jan, quite a significant time considering the current issues.
Sorry to hear that Muffin-man... I hope the new plan goes better for her.
I don’t know about others but our kid are off 18th December to 6th Jan, quite a significant time considering the current issues.
But... do they need to be off 'till the 6th? If the generations are going to get together, in doors, for extended periods, over Xmas... why not shift the school holidays so the kids are away from their schools for long enough to get though the incubation period before hugging the older members of the family?
We're behind her ElShalimo - she wasn't going to uni anyway and this apprenticeship has come up in the equine world she so desperately want's to work in and with an ex. Olympic rider.
[probably not realistic, my holiday shifting proposal that is, the dates don't work]
But… do they need to be off ’till the 6th? If the generations are going to get together, in doors, for extended periods, over Xmas… why not shift the school holidays so the kids are away from their schools for long enough to get though the incubation period before hugging the older members of the family?
Because that's logical, like an extended break over half term, and this government don't do logical.
and this government don’t do logical
And their kids break up well before the 18th anyway, because they aren't at state schools?
Definitely a lack of joined up thinking around this... especially the "keep things normal for the sake of their education" approach... there is no normal this term, not up here anyway, far from it.
Tier 1 does not control spread.
But gosh darn it, the pubs were closed at 10pm, surely that should have done the trick?
We’re behind her ElShalimo – she wasn’t going to uni anyway and this apprenticeship has come up in the equine world she so desperately want’s to work in and with an ex. Olympic rider.
After completing her apprenticeship and working in the industry for a while nobody would really care about her A-level results anyway - it sounds like this might be a good move at the right time.
There is nothing to say she can't dip back into education at a later date of her circumstances change.
FWIW the new tiers seem to be more logical than the old ones.
Would have thought <50% capacity for events might have been sensible for tier 2. But I guess that might have completely nailed what little currently remains of the events business.
@the-muffin-man - sounds good... there's no money in it... but it's a life, not a job. My brother trains and competes event horses... he was going nowhere near A-levels... considered studying for them waiting for life to start, rather than getting on with it. Different paths for different folks... wish her good luck from us all.
not just rate
maybe your areas growth is high enough
maybe your areas ITU capacity isn’t looking good
etc.
I think TiRed has talked about the other factors previously. They just need to be more open and vocal about the reasoning. The "civil liberties" knuckledraggers are having a field day on the local FB posts.
They also need to be open about what (limited) info they have about the sources of infections. Do schools spread more than (currently not allowed) inter household transmission, or supermarkets etc?
Doesn't need saying again but I will - if the government had put in place the test, track and trace that they themselves said that schools needed in order to reopen, then things may not be so bad. Starmer needs to be reminding them of their failure to deliver and the economic costs and death toll they have created.
I don’t know about others but our kid are off 18th December to 6th Jan, quite a significant time considering the current issues.
But… do they need to be off ’till the 6th?
they cannot go back any sooner than the 4th anyway, which is the Monday, normal to have an inset day first back, mine are back on the 5th
same with breaking up early, no point them going in for 1 day on the Monday 21st,
Cheers Kelvin!
That was our thoughts too - waste the next 6 months? Or grab this chance now?
We know she'll never earn big money, but quality of life is way more important.
seems like we missed the brake and hit the accelerator!
come up in the equine world she so desperately want’s to work in and with an ex. Olympic rider.
Sounds ideal. I would caution that it looks unlikely that there will be exams next year (and will not be any in Wales), so staying means she would most likely get the credit. But what an opportunity. Follow her heart.
From the Washington Post discussing Thanksgiving 2020 style.
Across the United States, millions of people pointedly spurning CDC advice as they celebrated Thanksgiving during a time of increased covid-19 community spread were excited to hearken back to the very first traditions of European settlement in the Americas.
“We wanted to keep alive the customs these settlers helped start,” explained one family that was traveling hundreds of miles to spread disease to people they didn’t know because they thought the trip would be best for their family. “We just want to do the same thing they did, but in a way that includes a dish that somehow incorporates both marshmallows and sweet potatoes.”
These Thanksgiving reenactors were dedicated to making sure the holiday got the celebration it deserved. “Usually," another ardent patriot said, "my Thanksgiving celebration is based on a selective and misleading interpretation of history. This year, it will be based on a selective and misleading interpretation of science as well. And I brought green beans with those weird little packaged onion things on them!”
“It’s a point of pride with me to ignore any guidelines that would prevent my bringing pestilence with me to this important family holiday,” one celebrator noted. “The Pilgrims didn’t pay attention to any guidelines! Dare I act as though to be alive now offers me any advantages over what they had?"
Hearing Stoke ITU (and B'ham QE) now full. Stoke not accepting any trauma patients.
Here's an article from the www.stoke.gov.uk website, from 3 days ago arguing that Stoke shouldn't be put in tier 3. Linky
Hearing Stoke ITU (and B’ham QE) now full
ITU is almost always full, they very rarely have many (if any) spare beds, particularly this time of year. I don't know about Stoke but QE isn't full, well, it wasn't when Ms Lunge was there earlier this week.
Not saying this is good or bad, but ITU occupancy isn't a good way to measure how busy a hospital is.
ITU occupancy isn’t a good way to measure how busy a hospital is
No one is saying it is. Admissions and current inpatients are more useful guides. But that isn’t why ITUs were brought up.
ITU is almost always full, they very rarely have many (if any) spare beds
Forgive me, but could you point me towards some data about the regularity that hospitals actually "run out" of ITU beds, and not some nebulous headline?
My understanding (and i hope to be incorrect) was that ITU runs close to capacity and adds numbers when a surge occurs. In the above case they have actually run out. There are no more ITU beds. There is no surge capacity left.
Forgive me, but could you point me towards some data about the regularity that hospitals actually “run out” of ITU beds, and not some nebulous headline?
My understanding (and i hope to be incorrect) was that ITU runs close to capacity and adds numbers when a surge occurs. In the above case they have actually run out. There are no more ITU beds. There is no surge capacity lef
I can't point you to the data, but I am married to someone who works in ITU and her brother does the same at a different hospital. That's where my info comes from.
In normal times hey rarely "run out" of ITU space as they move patients around so if it's close to capacity, those who are least ill get put into another ward. There are other high dependency wards that they move people to, some of which are very similar in the treatment they offer to the ITU wards. I can only speak of the QE but there ITU is busy but they've not expanded out to other areas of the hospital yet. That may well change, but at the moment it hasn't.
The issue in March was that people weren't leaving ITU, the recovery rate was very low. Now they know how to treat people so people don't stay there as long and they can move them as they recover. This was much harder to do in March.
As I say, I only have a second hand view based on what my wife and brother-in-law tell me. This may not be reflected in other hospitals.
Have QE resumed elective surgery again yet? They had postponed all non-emergency procedures earlier this month because of Covid patients taking up ICU. Are they past that now?
Fiscal prudence! Don't make us laugh Prime Minister!! Not seen much of that in the pandemic unless it means squeezing communities and business.
I'm a bit confused about how the new rules apply with regard to cycling. A group of six appears to be ok (even in tier three) but what about the advice to not travel into other areas?
Come to the North, very little of it isn't in Tier 3... I think like the last set of tiers, you shouldn't be travelling between them except for a very small number of reasons set out in the guidance.
^ as long as you start & finish in your own area then cycling into other areas is considered ok. Just don’t stop.
As expected - AZ to run a confirmatory trial of the low dose regimen. They might get emergency use for the original regimen in the EU. I don't think they'll get it in the US.
And hopefully the CMC will be better-controlled than in the first trial. How you MAKE a drug is more important than the clinical trials you conduct to see if it works. This is a prime example of that.
So, can I travel from one tier 3 area to a neighbouring one to go for a walk?
I/we won't be mixing with anyone else, at least not at close quarters. The rules advise against it but logic dictates it's a lot better than going shopping with thousands of others. I know it's a bit selfish and I'm normally compliant with rules but I don't think I'm the only one starting to feel contempt with arbitrary blanket rules.
^ as long as you start & finish in your own area then cycling into other areas is considered ok. Just don’t stop.
You mean I can't stop for a quick slash when I ride into the Peak District (Derbyshire) from my house on the West Yorkshire border?!?!? Gah!
Curse you bojo you fiend, I'll have to cross my legs and pedal home quicker.
I'm taking the guidance as it is written, avoid travelling into/ out of tier 3 to another tier area, but can travel within tier 3 but avoid doing it frequently.
The "rules" advise against it but do not prohibit it. As long as you're not silly and don't take the piss it should be okay. For example, travelling from Lancaster to the Yorkshire Dales is probably okay. Driving to the Lakes from Stoke is not okay.
@BaronVonP7
Lunge's explanation is pretty much what happens in the trust I work for. We don't run ICUs at full capacity by choice: occupancy is demand driven subject to clinical need and staffing.
We have been opening more high dependency wards as the demand has increased, these are usually staffed by redeployment.
Our hospitals have had ICU capacity this time around because fewer patients have been on invasive ventilation.
Stretch - is that because of a change in treatment protocols rather than less patients with severe disease?
Dan, yes it's a change in the protocol. The clinicians are using high flow CPAP (continuous positive pressure - keeps lungs partially inflated) rather than a ventilator. I understand (I'm not a medic) that CPAP creates less device dependency and less lung trauma for the patient. I think it's easier to wean the patients off too - I remember low flow CPAP being used as a step between invasive ventilation and unsupported breathing on NICUs
A friend down the road (make, 65yo) finished chemo about 9 months ago, he's in remission now.
I know it's ridiculously little info to go on but is he basically not going to get any vaccine for the foreseeable?
Thanks matey.
Depends on the past chemo. His cancer centre will advise as vaccination is a common issue. Eventually there will be antibody prophylaxis for those who are immunosuppressed, but that may be a while away.
Thanks TiRed, appreciated as always.
Suggested tiered approach to vaccine deployment:
It might be out of date now
@kelvin, yes they have and have been for a while. They also send people to The Royal Orthopaedic depending on the need.
I’m told there was some slowing down in recent weeks but it’s back up again now.
That’s great. Good news.
Thanks Stretch. Good to hear that treatment options are better than in the first wave.
Made the mistake of looking at FB for a few mins... People are being encouraged to print these out and disseminate them.
I mean, that leaflet is insane but at the same time considering it's been produced by a deranged lunatic that is a halfway competent disinformation leaflet. Needs some official looking Harvard referencing and the removal of the some of the more conspiracy based language and it'd be a great one.
Where is this from?
Oakly,
Indeed, that's partly why it is concerning. It almost seems plausible, even copying the government's messaging brand.
Where is this from?
Yeah, I wonder if there are any interested parties within DHSC that you could pass this onto.
The ****ers need swatting like flies, McCarthy had the right idea.
From here. I only run fb in a browser for mental health reasons.😁
"Louise".......well that explains everything.
I love the "but why? Don't ask us". Like, the wisest and most intelligent conspiracy theorist in the world have dedicated literally tens of hours to this problem, and the best anyone's come up with is "something something Bill Gates".
Like, tell me oh illuminati, why did Donald Trump throw away his second term over the plandemic? Why is Boris Johnston allowing it to destroy him? And why is Nicola Sturgeon, who hates him, going along with it? Why has every european country bought into it and let it smash their ecomomies?
And if there's some conspiracy so deep, so profound that it forces all of those different interests to work together... How is Bolsanaro not dead?
This calls for a picture of Jimmy Saville standing beside a Wookie I think, and possibly even a reference to zombie maggots.
I wouldn't bother to understand it Northwind, all you need to assume is that they are seditious agitators who in a different time would have had the full force of the state thrown at them.
This is what happens when people decide that the actions of western governments highlighted by certain whistleblowers are equivalent to the actions of states run by people like Putin. The rot and degeneracy sets in.
It's like looking at the new 'soft power', just as we abandon its previous incarnations.
Like how the Brexit Barmy Army succeed in their pressure to cut Overseas Aid in the kind of 'cancel culture' that they outwardly criticise, yet actively utilise to actually harm us.
It is HyperNormalisation, and it comes from a play-book.
We can spend our time fruitlessly refuting the BS as it gets more 'n' more outlandish, so they start answering questions with questions, so we start answering questions that take us down cul-de-sacs that resemble colostomy bags... Or we can purposefully ignore its worst excesses and get on with the interesting stuff.
poopscoop
Made the mistake of looking at FB for a few mins… People are being encouraged to print these out and disseminate them.
The problem is these are no more or less accurate than the governments misinformation.
People see it as a binary choice when it isn't. i.e. the government are lying therefore this must be true
It is obvious to anyone the government are lying ... I mean they do it in a single press conference but frankly anyone can see Nursing Homes were not safe etc. Boris social distancing stood behind a 2m apart sign nowhere near 2m from people either side... whilst no sane person will disagree that lockdown has caused massive unemployment and MH issues.
So we're a bit stuffed... I don't actually believe that Boris even has the capability to understand truth.... (I mean that seriously, it's not a political pop) .. but he doesn't even seem to tell the truth even when it might be to his advantage... and I don't mean in the sense of him being a politician ... it's like he has some MH issue that prevents him ???
This makes conspiracy stuff so easy ... because people will tend towards if one is lying the other must be true.
Talk of Scottish schools not starting back til 11th January, can see that happening, on agenda at Scotgov meeting today.
People see it as a binary choice
That right there is the problem.
The modern world is more complex than yes/no.
I don’t actually believe that Boris even has the capability to understand truth…
I suspect you are right.
Or if he does, he simply doesn't care, because power/possession/vanity is more important.
What the actual ****. Can someone please reboot this version of reality.
It seems increasingly that Boris is indeed a gift from above, and that he will eventually deliver the break up of the union. 🙂
I suspect you are right.
Or if he does, he simply doesn’t care, because power/possession/vanity is more important.
Increasingly I'm starting to think he actually doesn't understand "truth" or "lie".
It's a weird one ... his school reports seem to show he was the same back then even by Eton standards but he doesn't even seem to take the opportunity to tell the truth even when it's the easy option ??? (and again I don't mean that in a politician way)...
I don't know if this happened to him or was he born like this?
I wouldn't be all that surprised TBH if it turned out parts of the government were behind the leaflet... some bizarre plan to obscure the truth through accusing themselves of lying ???
It's all VERY 1984 double think...
Nober
It seems increasingly that Boris is indeed a gift from above, and that he will eventually deliver the break up of the union.
You couldn't make this up could you?
Honestly even with the combined intellegence of hancock and bozster you couldn't possibly think this would go down well in any of the devolved nations. Even die hard unionist will be vomiting...
All I can think is its a double bluff... Bozzer is going to hand over power of the union to Nicola.
edit:
Actually I think that might be more popular than first glance.
My kid asked me and my mate who was the "best English politican" the other day and I said "English of British"... he was "Oh British then" and me and my mate both said Nicola Sturgeon at the same time.
That right there is the problem.
The modern world is more complex than yes/no.
I've been pulled apart on this forum more than once for suggesting such heresy! 🤣
Rather alarmed that Tory MPs are undermining the latest tier plans by demanding evidence after the event, with the press giving it their backing. Can see that playing into the hands of the Covid deniers/ignorers.
Obviously could have been avoided if the criteria were set out clearly before or alongside the announcement.
Much as I'd like to see the Tories stab Boris in the back. 😎
Actually I think that might be more popular than first glance.
Down here in little England... I take that offer up in a heartbeat.
Kelvin
Down here in little England… I take that offer up in a heartbeat.
Yep ... just time to cancel HS2 and put it between Manchester and Edinburgh ??
but seriously I wonder how popular it would be after the handling of this epidemic.
MoreCash
Rather alarmed that Tory MPs are undermining the latest tier plans by demanding evidence after the event, with the press giving it their backing. Can see that playing into the hands of the Covid deniers/ignorers.
I'm not totally convinced they are not the same thing. As in if it turned out later that spreading disinformation in 2 ways was actually official policy ..
I mean Bozzer knows that Govey leaked the biggy... and has ordered a police investigation he will doubtless then obstruct. Makes you wonder ...
HS2 will continue as it's a vanity project.
Sadly they have postponed Crossrail2 due to Covid-19, the £ Billions that were to be invested in that have morphed into £43.82 and a bag of gobstoppers for levelling up the North.
What the actual ****. Can someone please reboot this version of reality.
FFS. How we laughed when Trump demanded his signature be put on the stimulus checks.
Can Scotland adopt selected parts of the North of England on the way out please?
Can Scotland adopt selected parts of the North of England on the way out please
We'll take Cumbria, ye can keep the rest of it.
Rather alarmed that Tory MPs are undermining the latest tier plans by demanding evidence after the event, with the press giving it their backing
I don't think we can blame the MP's here, if the government provided evidence when they released the details then there'd be more buy-in to the restrictions.
You can argue about their timing, but asking for evidence is no bad thing.
I don’t think we can blame the MP’s here, if the government provided evidence when they released the details then there’d be more buy-in to the restrictions.
As per my next paragraph then....
That anti lock down poster appears to have been removed? I did report it but didn't actually expect anything to happen.
Obviously it will still keep on popping up but still...
Chloroquine & hydroxy if taken by CV19 patients may cause psychotic episodes...
https://www.politico.eu/article/drugs-hyped-as-coronavirus-treatment-linked-to-psychiatric-disorders-says-ema/