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scuttler
There was suggestion a few months back of reduced transmission in kids.
I'm confident it's true (common sense says someone asymptomatic isn't coughing all over someone else)... as above though that's not what people are hearing.
As plans go natural immunity is a rather flawed one
christ, natural immunity isn’t a plan! it’s just an interesting side discussion!
pick any one. If the Black Death comes ripping through your village your survival strategy is going to be either 1. Don’t get it, 2 hope you’re immune.
if you'd written
2. hope your immune system successfully fought it off
then I'd agree.
perhaps a subtle difference? but (to me at any rate) "you're immune" would likely imply not even getting the thing in the first place...
Yeah, the innate immune system kicking in and fighting a disease off isn't the same as being immune......in fact having a stronger innate immune system can in technical terms kill you to death when you get certain infections.
I guess you could sort of have people who aren't or are more susceptible to Covid because of an ACE2 mutation/polymorphism, I'm not what research has been done on that. Still isn't being "immune" to the disease though.
If the Black Death comes ripping through your village your survival strategy is going to be either 1. Don’t get it, 2 hope you’re immune.
how else do you think people survived?
LOLs and ROFLCOPTERS all round.
I wonder why people are even engaging with such an ignorant troll?
I forget this place is the home to pedants...yes having innate immunity to fight off the disease and “being immune” are essentially the same thing.
I guess the public think that not being susceptible to a disease, whether by not getting it or getting it at asymptotic levels - means to them that they're immune. Genetic, environmental, the innate immune system - none of these things are acquired immunity.
I forget this place is the home to pedants…yes having innate immunity to fight off the disease and “being immune” are essentially the same thing.
Hnngggggggg
Or not having it for certain disease. I've read a few papers that show a strong innate immune system is partly involved in absolutely ****ing certain covid patients.
They aren't the same thing.
How do we test for immunity/immune response so we know who should be vaccinated?
Yes there can be an over inflammatory repose in men who’re both Obese and Diabetic. That doesn’t mean that theres not another group of people who will get the disease, fight it off, and get better (have immunity that’s either innate or acquired)
having innate immunity to fight off the disease and “being immune” are essentially the same thing
except they're not, are they?
immune, no virus gets a hold in you, you don't spread it, R=0.
immune system does its thing after you get it but before you die, you spread it, R=biglyness
Also why do you think Africa has done so well in containing infection. It isn’t due to natural immunity, it is primarily (I suspect) due to the fact that Africa as a whole is sadly very used to isolation and dealing with new zoonoses. So they know how to act as a culture to minimise risk
Not in the cites eg Lagos Nigeria, the poor pack 20 or more into tiny vans every morning and night to undertake their very long commutes in/out of the city.
On the plus side, it's so hot and over stuffed that all doors / windows will the open all the time, but still it's a very dense city (unless you're rich).
mrmonkfinger has simplified it nicely ... you being immunised so as never to acquire and spread the virus is a hell of a lot more useful for society as a whole than you passing the virus on to other people before developing immunity naturally ... if that ends up the choice before us
On the Africa thing. - fair enough,iI guess it is similar to yellow fever and India then. They have to hope like hell it doesn't get into the country
scotroutes
How do we test for immunity/immune response so we know who should be vaccinated?
Why would 'we' do that?
For whatever reasons we already have people with immunity but we are not testing (or at least making the results public).
Do you really think Boris hasn't had a test to see if his antibodies are still viable?
I'm guessing this was #1 on the list... then self isolate and hide results regardless.
TBH love to be a fly on the wall for that....
"You are going to have to self isolate Boris"
"But I've had it"
"Yes but those are the rules"
"but can I catch it again"
"not according to your test results..."
"then its a F'ing stupid rule... "
"yes"
"who the hell made this rule"
"you did"
Which one of the vaccines is delivered by a sugar cube?
asking for a needle phobic friend....
“then its a F’ing stupid rule… ”
Why would Johnson having yet another excuse to hide away result in him being annoyed?
Why would Johnson having yet another excuse to hide away result in him being annoyed?
In the warm as well.... last time he had to hide in a freezer.
From the Guardian Live Feed:
Oxford AstraZeneca vaccine has up to 90% efficacy
The Guardian’s Sarah Boseley and Ian Sample report:
In case you missed it this morning: The Covid vaccine developed in the UK by Oxford University and AstraZeneca can protect 70.4% of people from becoming ill and – in a surprise result – up to 90% if a lower first dose is used, results from the final trial show.
The Oxford vaccine is the third to produce efficacy results, following Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna whose vaccines were made with a different technology. Both of those reported almost 95% efficacy and Pfizer has applied for a licence in the US and UK.
While the Oxford results may not immediately look so good, the scientists say they are not comparable, because they have included people who become mildly ill as well as seriously ill, unlike the other two. Their vaccine has some big advantages, because it is fridge-stable so easily transported and used anywhere in the world. It is also substantially cheaper, at about £3 a dose instead of more than £20 for the others.
The UK has pre-ordered 100m doses of the Oxford vaccine, which is central to its pandemic vaccination plans. Production has already begun and 4m doses have been supplied so far, which cannot be used until the vaccine is licensed.
Importantly, Oxford/AstraZeneca have already shown that the vaccine works as well in older people as in younger groups and is safe. There are early indications it might also help stop transmission of the disease.
>immune system does its thing after you get it but before you die, you spread it, R=biglyness
in our Black Death example where folk live in a world where medical care doesn’t exist, your survival is going to be based on one of two things happening, 1. You don’t get it at all ( not infected because you don’t come into contact with anyone with the disease) or 2 you get it, but are immune.( either acquired or adaptive) If you die, you aren’t immune and you’re just another victim/spreader
scotroutes
How do we test for immunity/immune response so we know who should be vaccinated?
Why would ‘we’ do that?
I dunno mate. It was nickc who suggested that we wouldn't have to vaccinate 30-50% of the population.
where folk live in a world where medical care doesn’t exist
Good job that this is 21st Century Europe.
nickc
Full Memberin our Black Death example where folk live in a world where medical care doesn’t exist, your survival is going to be based on one of two things happening, 1. You don’t get it at all ( not infected because you don’t come into contact with anyone with the disease) or 2 you get it, but are immune.( either acquired or adaptive) If you die, you aren’t immune and you’re just another victim/spreader
Erm, 3, get it and survive doesn't imply or require immunity.
Can anyone point me in the direction of any reliable sources which show the typical time lag between exposure > symptoms > hospital admission > and sadly death?
All I can find is a graphic from the Daily Fail :$
Thanks
your survival is going to be based on one of two things happening, 1. You don’t get it at all ( not infected because you don’t come into contact with anyone with the disease) or 2 you get it, but are immune.( either acquired or adaptive) If you die, you aren’t immune and you’re just another victim/spreader
if you are superhumanly immune like superman on a day where he is feeling especially super, thanks for asking, it does not get a hold in you, you don't spread it, result, no other people die from your breathing / coughing / spaffing.
if that happens to lots of other people, this makes (1) far more likely for you
. It was nickc who suggested that we wouldn’t have to vaccinate 30-50% of the population.
I suggested nothing if the sort, thanks
New England rules from Dec 2nd seems to be everyone back to the tier system, but what tier you are in, and what that means has changed. Confusing enough.
But do these rules still apply for the 5 day Xmas period or is it a holiday free for all?
if you are superhumanly immune like superman
or just lucky to have a group of 4 or so genes on chromosome 4 ( or 9, can’t remember)
Confusing enough.
Perhaps we should just wait for Thursday’s announcement. Trailing this stuff early and incomplete to the media just sows seeds of confusion and cynicism.
Ignore my Thursday comment… hadn’t realised half the stuff already confirmed early officially today. Not clear, is it. Will it be clearer by next week…?
Whats confusing?
Tier 1 areas, people will be urged to work from home wherever possible.
In Tier 2 areas, pubs and bars must close unless they are serving substantial meals along with alcoholic drinks.
In Tier 3 areas all pubs, bars and restaurants must close except for delivery, takeaway and drive-through. Hotels and indoor entertainment venues must also close in these areas.
The definition of substantial I guess...
I dunno mate. It was nickc who suggested that we wouldn’t have to vaccinate 30-50% of the population.
It seems we already have some percentage we don't need to vaccinate (yet) but Boris and chums don't care about that. It will be interesting if Boris changes his tune when he works out he's most likely one of them?
Household mixing Kryton… both early December and for Xmas… I have no idea what’s coming for us based on that at all.
7pm announcement due now. Perhaps it’ll be clear then.
Whats confusing?
What each tier means has changed, and what tier your region is in may change compared to pre-lockdown.
And thats before we get to Christmas exemptions
So… current measures to end a day earlier than previously announced. Hunting for more information… I’m sure that’s a necessary change… not just a confusing one… 🤷🏻♂️
So… current measures to end a day earlier than previously announced.
Depends on your interpretation of "lockdown ends on X". Is that the last day of restrictions or the first day of freedom new, less onerous restrictions
No, the legislation said midnight Tuesday night… it’s been brought forward a day… which will confuse no companies’ plans for next week… honest.
I suggested nothing if the sort, thanks
🤔 You certainly implied that 30-50% we're immune and as such there was no need for them to take the vaccine. Backtrack all you want, but it's there in writing 2 pages back!
Ref the AZ vaccine, can anyone explain why a 1/2 dose followed by a full dose is more effective than 2 spaced full doses? Seems counterintuitive.
Household mixing Kryton
Ah indeed, could be clear in 20 minutes or so.
You certainly implied
scotroutes suggestion was either we vaccinate or tell people that they have to self isolate for ever (as a joke presumably) I thought that was harsh treatment for the folk who're immune (as a joke). No backtracking needed.
As always; folk on this forum need either to drink less coffee, or take themselves less seriously.
Geez, think I'll just stay in, Christmas as well, family live many miles away and it would feel wrong to travel even if technically we are allowed for a few days.
All clear as mud as usual. Suspect many more areas will be in tier 3 next week. Levels are still high in the North West despite lockdown / tier 3 for months.
Can't actually see what they've tightened up, has it been announced yet?
'squeeze the disease' is this week's mantra.
Whats confusing?
Your post? Hotels weren't shut in tier 3 before.
scotroutes suggestion was either we vaccinate or tell people that they have to self isolate for ever (as a joke presumably) I thought that was harsh treatment for the folk who’re immune (as a joke). No backtracking needed.
I missed out my bit about "valid medical reason", but anyroadup, how are you going to test for those who are either immune or will develop an immune response? After all, if 30-50% of folk fall into these categories than that's a lot fewer doses required and we can all get back to normal early next year.
Did anyone make much sense of johnson's remarks and (non) answers?
Chris Whitty's responses when invited to comment by johnson are getting closer and closer to...I agree, prime minister; he's playing with johnson.
Sod the government, I'll be sticking to a pretty harsh personal lockdown till the person I'm shielding has the jab at least. Hopefully me at some point too. I'm extremely lucky that I can basically go hermit through all this and I appreciate most people can't.
With (hopefully) a matter of months before vaccine it would be beyond shit if she caught it now "'cos Christmas."
I thought that was harsh treatment for the folk who’re immune (as a joke). No backtracking needed
Ah..you stating 30-50% were immune was a joke. Sorry I didn't get that..maybe because you doubled down with a link to the bmj ...
Anyhow.. dantsw's link to the guardian was interesting..in particular..
While the Oxford results may not immediately look so good, the scientists say they are not comparable, because they have included people who become mildly ill as well as seriously ill, unlike the other two.
Can someone in the know expand a bit more on this point?
I missed out my bit about “valid medical reason”, but anyroadup, how are you going to test for those who are either immune or will develop an immune response? After all, if 30-50% of folk fall into these categories than that’s a lot fewer doses required and we can all get back to normal early next year.
Unless they are loaded I can't see how they'd pay for tests .. that's the sort of money a government finds in order to save double on vaccinations. (Be it 10, 50 or 70%)
However at the moment it doesn't matter if you pay for one privately or not as the UK government isn't acknowledging them. Potentially millions could be going to work, school etc. but I assume we have to wait for the "UK made, world leading vaccine" so we can all be grateful.
stevextc
Free MemberI missed out my bit about “valid medical reason”, but anyroadup, how are you going to test for those who are either immune or will develop an immune response? After all, if 30-50% of folk fall into these categories than that’s a lot fewer doses required and we can all get back to normal early next year.
Immune is still going to be a pretty small number overall. "will develop an immune response", not entirely clear what you mean there but if you just mean "immune system will fight off the disease without much harm" then there's no way to know
The difference in actual vaccine levels required isn't going to be huge either way- easier to brute force it than to try and be clever and introduce multiple processes and tests and doubts etc.
I can't help feeling the mass testing is backward and should be in at tier 1 / 2 where people are still relatively free to meet. Dealing with preventing escalation first.
Ah indeed, could be clear in 20 minutes or so.
I still haven’t got a clue.
Did anyone make much sense of johnson’s remarks and (non) answers?
Not just me then.
I was sat in the car ranting at Boris' failure to say "we have to still be careful" when he came out with a long-winded string of big words instead
KISS, you complete and utter Bellend.
“It is the season to be jolly careful”
Let’s just be “jolly careful”… that’ll keep people in jobs… in touch… in good health… alive. Don’t ask how he could be clearer… ask how he could be any less clear! I fear for the pubs and hospitals alike.
I haven't seen this linked previously (apologies if I missed it)
They started work the same saturday morning that Chinese scientists published the genetic sequence of the virus, and largely had the vaccine designed that weekend. Most of the rest of the time has been scaling up through the various trial stages. Including safety trials.
Remarkable
I think I mentioned this at the time, worth a listen…
PROFILE
The no-nonsense scientist whose team is developing a coronavirus vaccine at record speed. Mark Coles discovers the many talents of Oxford University vaccine specialist, Professor Sarah Gilbert.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m000l71b
.
.
.
Edit: it was actually this one I was thinking of…
THE LIFE SCIENTIFIC
How did Sarah Gilbert and her Oxford team get so far, so fast in developing a vaccine for Covid-19?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m000mj18
dantsw:- sorry for not replying sooner, I don’t have the graphic you requested but will add it if I look at that region in more detail.
Have been looking at the admissions and deaths data for the first wave by region.
Here’s a chart showing the curves for deaths by region in the first wave....
Looks like a difference in timings, particularly between North West and London. So, here is a chart showing the admissions and deaths for the North West....
Here’s London.....
Was a little surprised to see the death rate peak so early on, it looks like 6th of April.
Have done quite a bit of digging and the most recent article here suggests that time from exposure to death is around 23.5 days...
I did come across another article which referred to a study suggesting the time between exposure and death was around 18 days but I can’t find the link for it now.
So can anyone explain why...
1. Despite all regions locking down at the same time there is a marked time difference between the peaks in London and the North West?
2. The death rate in London peaked 14 days after lock down was introduced. Is this not 9 days earlier than would be expected according to the article linked to above and 4 days earlier than the other study I mentioned? If so, does this not suggest that infection rates were dropping in London before the lockdown was introduced?
Sorry if this has been done before. Please feel free to challenge my data, I do make mistakes sometimes 🙂
So that's more bluster and confusion from Boris then. Again.
Sod the government, I’ll be sticking to a pretty harsh personal lockdown till the person I’m shielding has the jab at least. Hopefully me at some point too. I’m extremely lucky that I can basically go hermit through all this and I appreciate most people can’t.
I'm in a similar boat. Having to help out may parents while limiting their exposure via me is a lot easier when I'm unemployed and have savings to fall back on. It means I can easily have days in between seeing them and me seeing others, buys me time to let any symptoms show before I visit them. If I was working and constantly meeting multiple people I'd feel anxious about picking it up and passing it on so would visit less, currently I can manage gaps between risky scenarios but still get out and about by choosing quiet times for shopping etc. Riding is solo and away from crowds with no visits to others at all. Christmas is planned to be very simple with absolute minimum of family contacts regardless of the rules: christmas day just me, mum and dad. My birthday a few days later (40th!) will be with my sister and New Year will be on my own. Celebrations can be psotponed to the summer.
Ref the AZ vaccine, can anyone explain why a 1/2 dose followed by a full dose is more effective than 2 spaced full doses? Seems counterintuitive.
Think of it as if you're your immune system but you're learning how to juggle. Starting with 2 balls gives you a chance to learn the technique so that when you get 3 or 4 balls you have less of a jump in skillset to make. The small dose gives your immune system a chance to learn how to fight the Covid without being overwhelmed and dropping the ball. Then when it gets exposed to the full dose it can cope much better and learn the skillset to do it immediately.
Is this not 9 days earlier than would be expected
Because we didn’t go from “normal” to “lockdown”, we began acting very differently before the government stepped in… that’s bound to have an effect. The major of London was calling for the people of London to change behaviour before the PM had even accepted that he had a job to do.
It wasn’t just the Mayor of London…
https://fullfact.org/health/coronavirus-lockdown-hancock-claim/
16th of March, the health secretary was calling for strong social distancing measures. Even up here, we were already acting differently a week before he made that call… I wouldn’t be at all surprised if in London more people were getting on with lockdown type behaviours than elsewhere in the UK, because they were way ahead on hospital admissions, and could see the evidence of the size of the problem there, that we could not in the North at that point. Many people had already shifted away from commuting and sharing workspace well before the ‘lockdown’ begun on the 23rd of March… especially in London.
Fair enough Kelvin. It makes sense that the changes in behaviour pre ‘official lockdown’ may explain this. Looking at the chart again it looks like there is a sharper downturn in the death rate around the 11th April so perhaps this is the ‘official lockdown’ kicking in?
kelvin
Full MemberIt wasn’t just the Mayor of London…
https://fullfact.org/health/coronavirus-lockdown-hancock-claim/
16th of March, the health secretary was calling for strong social distancing measures.
This is from the email my employer's head of HR sent (based in the US, but UK offices did the same).
This is a reminder that we are asking all employees and contractors to work remotely on Thursday, March 12
I haven't had a full week in the office since then. I imagine plenty of other companies will have started around the same time.
We had a travel ban about a week before that.
My dads care home locked down and banned all visits on the 12th. I had a race cancelled on the 14th.
It’s also not as simple as taking peak death date and walking back N days. Time to death is a random variable and smooths out the infection time series. Peak to peak can be significantly different to mean time.
In my modelling a “lockdown date” of the 21st simulates data very accurately indeed at national scale. That’s a couple of days earlier than the final official lockdown announcement but much later than many of the initial voluntary actions.
Thanks for the additional replies, appreciated.
I get your point Captain regarding Peak to Peak and variability of time from exposure to death. Note that hospital admissions also peak earlier in London too. Does modelling at National Scale not miss time differences between regions though? Let’s imagine that lockdown has no effect (not saying that’s the case by the way). Modelling at a national scale instead of regional will miss the true picture of what’s happening won’t it?
OK so my next question is regarding the latest data from Covid Zoe....
What’s happening in the South of England? Looks like, for most Southern regions, the infection rate has been slowing since late October. London looks like it has been flat since mid October. I can’t keep track of what restrictions were in place where and when but don’t recall anything being put in place in the South until the latest lockdown from 5 Nov?
Northwind
will develop an immune response”, not entirely clear what you mean there but if you just mean “immune system will fight off the disease without much harm” then there’s no way to know
Am I being naive in thinking that someone who has just had the virus would/could have the same or similar levels of protection as getting a virus?
It seems to me there are lots of families where one or more of them had the virus, think they had or the rest of the house did...who seem (to me) to be lower risk than those who didn't?
The difference in actual vaccine levels required isn’t going to be huge either way- easier to brute force it than to try and be clever and introduce multiple processes and tests and doubts etc.
If we had vaccines NOW ... you can walk into0 any pharmacy in France and get tested to see if you already had the virus. My mate who meets every risk factor had it and didn't even know... and despite the test being pretty accurate did it twice.
The other thing is all the people who "think" they had it are not going to be as likely to get a vaccine. Another mate's wife had what is assumed to be COVID-19 in April and although they share a bed he had no symptoms. Probably unsurprising but neither did the kids...
Given the very limited vaccines do you think they should be at the top of the list and if it was you would you prefer a vulnerable friend/relative/random stranger got one first?
Does modelling at National Scale not miss time differences between regions though?
Yes. And this led to (or at least was used to justify) the end of the Spring lockdown too soon for the North of England… and that led to many of us being put into “almost lockdown” for most of the rest of the year. [ RIP pubs of Northern England. When do my family working in NHS hospitals up here get their restbite? ] TiRed (and I think thecaptain) has been very helpful in giving regional breakdowns for us in this thread. Might be worth paging back and checking them out.
London has a more dynamic epidemic than other regions. Climbed faster and decreased faster. I believe much of this was driven by public transport. It’s a huge driver of transmission, given the enclosed confines, poor ventilation and over-crowding. Anyone who has commuted to Waterloo will know this.
Commuting in London was falling well before the lockdown. This was on the local news every night from the beginning of March.
The North is where it is, not due to poor behaviours, but due to phasing of the epidemic. We unlocked when they were higher than the south due to the initial lag. Then just grew at the same rate. There’s no exceptionalism here. There is a perhaps a little more inter generation mixing in some ethnic groups, but the bigger issue is where it started from in August.
“I’m not here to tell people what they should or shouldn’t do”
Some useful advice from the transport secretary this morning on the radio as regards your travel plans after Monday. Good luck…
Well, “full information” is coming Thursday, according to the same “trying to sound helpful” government source on the radio. No point planning anything ‘till then. Four days of noise… why not tell us what is happening clearly in one go?
but the bigger issue is where it started from in August.
Well, come on, don't leave us hanging...?
No point planning anything ‘till then. Four days of noise… why not tell us what is happening clearly in one go?
A few days ago one of the big science groups published evidence that one of the big contributors to spread was peoples habits after the early leaking of news of restrictions. As we here all know via common sense, when people were told they couldn't go to the pub on Monday/shopping on Tuesday/visit people by Thursday they concentrated on doing exactly the opposite for the few day's prior. So the Government aka Cummings strategy was/is a major factor in transmission which begs the questions - why persist with "leaks" and early information?
Having said that, I do feel this week is being manage slightly better in that its a reverse trend - things could get slightly better for some of us from next Tuesday but we are all on tenterhooks to discover that on Thursday. Will there be a greying of the edges over the weekend, with people blurring the lines of lockdown vs thier applicable Tier on the basis "ah well what could a few days early do..."
Well, come on, don’t leave us hanging…?
i assumed that TiRed means the background level the rise started from in august.
Thanks for the replies. Sorry if I have misunderstood or missed something but I still don’t think anyone has explained....
“Looks like, for most Southern regions, the infection rate has been slowing since late October. London looks like it has been flat since mid October”
Has anyone read the COVID Winter Plan doc? Does it say how you get out of Tier 3 back down to Tier 2, or from 2 to 1? That very important piece was missing when we had the 3 tiers recently
I get the feeling that W Yorks & most of the NW are going into Tier 3 again. Most of the NW has been in "virtual" T3 since March apart from a 3 week window
just when you feel the year couldn't be worse
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-55042114
Mrs Brown's boys and Call the Midwife are the headline BBC Christmas shows.
But...
Week 46 mortality analysis shows that deaths for the week-ending a week last Friday were 22.5% above historic 10-year mean. They will start to flatten due to Tiers and Lockdown2. They most likely won't reach 25-30/100k - that would be the worst flu season in 10 years. Note the peak in the second week of the year - that is the post-Christmas "turkey flu" as someone called it yesterday.
i assumed that TiRed means the background level the rise started from in august.
Precisely. In epidemic land, you have to plot data on semi-log plots, since cases, hospitalisations and deaths all grow or shrink in a geometric manner. A common slope indicates the same growth rate, irrespective of the starting levels. Common slopes for admissions were noted across the NHS regions. I've asked them to add a log-option to the plots, on https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ but none yet.
Here is that data to yesterday on a log plot. look at the slopes - not a lot of difference going on.
Note the North West in particular where cases have turned over, and of course NI and Scotland. Interventions do work. They me economically unpalatable, but that is a different debate.