Caution: there is a tight correlation there between where contact tracing can be easily carried out, and where they have concluded transmission takes place.
In countries that first tried indoor social distancing only, transmission did not slow as fast as they expected, so outdoor social distancing had to be introduced.
Outdoor working will probably form some part of an easing of current restrictions, but don’t get too excited about it.
some interesting data.
Lots of numbers, not much data.
Lots of numbers, not much data
Was referring to the data on outbreaks in restaurants/call centers showing seating plans of who got infected etc.
In countries that first tried indoor social distancing only, transmission did not slow as fast as they expected, so outdoor social distancing had to be introduced
Oooh, I'd like to read that stuff Kelvin - you got a link please ?
As counterpoint (and I don't know what the local circumstances were, and it's not peer-reviewed, and I don't know what they controlled for or how, and ... )
MEDRXIV.ORG I personally don’t believe that the infection rate is much lower in children than adults, more that they fight it off so quickly it makes it very hard to detect.
agree , whether they are asymptomatic or less likely to be infected not conclusively shown & hard to show, in theory either way could make them less likely to spread it, the only caveat being that my kids personal hygiene is shocking, their fingers always in noses/ pants!
THEGUARDIAN.COM The Spectator just speculates and some of the speculation flies in the face of what tacing has showed. The early clusters that produced the early hospitalisations have been wel documented and make this Spectator statement unfair on the mediacla profession:
The horrible truth is that it now looks like in many of the early cases, the disease was probably caught in hospitals and doctors’ surgeries.
The early case weres were preople returning from Asia and the mass gatherings they went to:
Airoplanes, airports and mass transport systems. Ski resort happy hours in Italy and Austria (and our local ski resort where one of junior's colleagues is a confirmed case and many of us are suspects). Religious meetings including Mulhouse. Schools such as a Paris Lycée with 40% testing positive (which given the testing window and false negatives means most probably caught it and then passed it to family and so on). Football games. Cruise ships. Places of work after those gatherings (Strasbourg hospital staff after a nurse attended the Mulhouse church meeting - not because of infected patients arriving because they were treated with appropriate precaution). Work - call centres, bus drivers, abattoir workers and yes care home staff, but well down the chain.
I have a few issues with other aspects of that Spectator article which mainly fall into the category politicised non-objective bollocks. It's not as bad as their efforts a few weeks back though.
As counterpoint
Again, identifying transmission through contact tracing is easiest in the places identified… who shares a house, who shares an office, who works on the same production line, who caught the same train… so caution is required when interpreting their results.
As for examples of countries introducing stricter outside social distancing measures to help slow spread… see most countries, especially those with better weather early in the year than us. We introduced both at the same time (indoor & outdoor), but then we’d watched what other countries went through, and were also a bit more lax with both.
Indoor transmission is likely to be much more likely than outdoor though, and, we’ll see staying outdoors as a tool for workplaces and schools, I’m sure… if our fickle weather allows.
APPEASEMENT.ORG Thanks @oldnpastit, the most practically useful article on CV I’ve seen so far.
Very interesting. Looking at this politically(and thus cynically), if the states in the middle start getting a huge increase in cv19 deaths, while somewhere like New York which is in lockdown doesn't, and in light of a potential presidential election later this year, how long before an attempt to blame democrat leaning New York and other democrat states/cities for introducing this virus to the middle republican states?
As noted in the "patriotic" thread about those engaged in culture wars don't switch sides, and there will always be an outlier to blame for their own (in)actions.
9TO5MAC.COM See Wales revision - lockdown remain to June, with more exercise time allowed and socially distance open air garden centres to open. That'll likely be the England scenario from Monday IMO.
Longer term assuming stability in transmission rates, Primary schools open in June, Secondaries in September with a slow Spanish type easing up of the general public being ready to snap back into Lockdown across June through to August.
Again, identifying transmission through contact tracing is easiest in the places identified
I’d like to see them contact trace my case. I caught it from my son. My son is a security officer at LHR. He touches people for a living. With close contact with hundreds in a day! PPE is gloves. They don’t change them at every contact. You don’t see the contact again.
I just analysed the US TSA COVID19 data for reference and fun. In a population of 54000 officers, perhaps half pax facing, they have had 1-2% prevalence and from those a 1% fatality rate. The number of daily pax has fallen from 2M/day to 200k/day. The doubling time for cases in TSA officers fell to a now stable 10 days. There is a nice correlation of incidence with pax numbers.
LHR does not test their staff, so comparable data won’t be available.
Good news about “the app” and transparency on how it works…
Yep it’s a really sensible move to whack it on github.
I do like the internal name of sonar 🙂
No NSlocation entries in the plist 🙂
See Wales revision
That’ll likely be the England scenario from Monday IMO.
That announcement stresses a four nation approach, so that does seem very likely, and welcome.
The exercise bit of that announcement is interesting, Wales again being more clear than the “UK”… they are suggesting you can exercise outdoors as often as you want now (small cheer) but make it explicit that you should exercise from your home, to your home, and stay local. As the “relaxations” start to occur, it is vital that clarity about driving to other areas to exercise, or going on long rides to other areas, just isn’t on. I doubt that the “UK” will follow that clear lead… but perhaps Scotland and NI will.
Garden centres? Why them?
Garden centres? Why them?
No real reason why they can't be set up in the same way as supermarket, and gardening provides both physical and mental benefits?
BBC.COM slowoldman
SubscriberGarden centres? Why them?
Do you even Daily Mail?
LHR does not test their staff,
LHR does not test anyone, so it's a wide open door - albeit with fewer people and so presumably fewer cases coming through in recent weeks.
There’s a significant mental health benefit to gardening, whether that benefit is enough to outweigh the risk I’ve no idea.
Article about the situation in Mexico. Another case of not trusting reported figures and looking at excess instead.
Garden centres? Why them?
stock has a very limited shelf life, and narrow window to sell it all- will have to turf millions of pounds worth of stock if not ables to sell.
There’s a significant mental health benefit to gardening, whether that benefit is enough to outweigh the risk I’ve no idea.
Probably a significant mental health benefit to fishing, rambling, sailing canoeing etc etc. Probably less social interaction going for a long walk in the country or sitting on a river bank 50m from the next angler than strolling round a packed gardening centre. Why does gardening get special treatment?
As a data nerd, there is some superb visualisation coming out of all this.
Really? Care to explain
Well I like it. Got pretty colours.
Worth it just for the comments.
Why does gardening get special treatment?
I guess encouraging people to be active in their own gardens reduces the risk of them breaching the broader social distancing rules while doing it. I can't see that rambling and canoeing aren't allowed, walking running and cycling are suggested exercise types, not the only ones?
Have a lot of sympathy on the fishing front, I know a lot of people use it for mental well-being.
Meanwhile, better late than never?
BBC News - UK 'to bring in 14-day quarantine for air passengers'
BBC.CO.UK Why does gardening get special treatment?
Not enough old people have died so the pension bill is still too high, open garden centres, that will solve it! Need to get the furlough cash back somehow!!!
Or as above, because they are lower risk and high reward and people will stay in their garden if they have things to do and it looks nice!
This doesn’t appear to say they don’t have the receptor, more that there are higher levels of circulating ace-2 in the blood in children.
I personally don’t believe that the infection rate is much lower in children than adults, more that they fight it off so quickly it makes it very hard to detect.
From the link tired put on here yesterday, it might be worth at a later date looking for cd4+ t cell reactivity to sars-2 spike protein as that may be a better indicator of infection levels over antibody detection. Mainly as I wonder how long any antibody response will remain detectable
FRONTIERSIN.ORG Thanks Graham. I think Occam's razor say your theory is right. I don't question it when my young kids shrug off illness/bike crashes/falls. I just accept they have sky high immune systems and bendy bones. If kids get CV mildly and recover from in fast that explains why they don't suffer much and haven't (yet) been recorded passing it on without the need for any complex explanation.
Thanks for the link.
politicised
Eh?
As counterpoint (and I don’t know what the local circumstances were, and it’s not peer-reviewed, and I don’t know what they controlled for or how, and … )
>
All identified outbreaks of three or more cases occurred in an indoor environment, which confirms that sharing indoor space is a major SARS-CoV-2 infection risk.
Yeah. Even if you think being inside of itself carries no greater risk than being outside it's usually far easier to social distance outside. It would utterly fly in the face of what we know about respiratory viruses to suggest they are not more transmissible inside that out. It's not coincidence that Flu spikes in winter.
fishing, rambling, sailing canoeing
Those are all allowed, except fishing and fishing would be allowed if you could credibly make the case that it's exercise.
garden centres
Makes no sense to me. People aren't allowed to go out except work and exercise. So even if Garden Centres are open nobody's allowed to go to them:
The regulations specify maintenance and upkeep. This does not extend to renovation and improvements.
https://www.college.police.uk/What-we-do/COVID-19/Documents/What-constitutes-a-reasonable-excuse.pdf
Still no surfing or driving somewhere quiet to ride but I can go out and clog up my already packed local cycling/walking routes as much as I want, madness!
Still no surfing or driving somewhere quiet to ride but I can go out and clog up my already packed local cycling/walking routes as much as I want, madness!
I share your frustration, but rules have to be simple. A vast number of outdoor activities are collateral damage in this.
(You *can* surf as long as you're fairly near where you want to surf.)
(You *can* surf as long as you’re fairly near where you want to surf.)
Maybe in Cornwall but here in Wales the facebook police would hang you!
Most carparks are closed anyway.
It’s not coincidence that Flu spikes in winter.
Is there any good data on what is the most significant route of flu infection? Is it breathing in the flu virus or is it touching infected surfaces?
Of course, correlation with being indoors more makes perfect sense for the direct infection from aerosolised virus. But, my understanding was that the Winter spike in flu was actually due to the cold temperature and low humidity which means the virus survives for longer on contaminated surfaces. WRT to flu, basic hygiene can be used to offset some of the risk associated with being indoors for longer.
I’ve no idea how this applies to SARS-CoV-2. How is its viability affected by the temp and humidity?
the facebook police would hang you!
Yeah, I fully take that depressing point. 🙁
the facebook police would hang you!
Probably the same ones having VE parties yesterday.
BBC News – UK ‘to bring in 14-day quarantine for air passengers’
How are the BBC falling for this blatant 'Look, a squirrel!' nonsense? We have the worst infection rates in Europe, any quarantine would be for the protection of the new arrival, not vice versa. Plus there are virtually no bloody flights!
I can only assume they churn out this kind of shite in the middle of a BH weekend because most of the sensible reporting staff aren't around to spike it.
After all, who the **** gave the green light to this report?
TWITTER.COM covid is very different from the flu. unfortunately it is the closest analogy in many peoples minds, so they are assuming the risk of transmission is lower going into the summer. it could lead to a second wave.
Is there any good data on what is the most significant route of flu infection? Is it breathing in the flu virus or is it touching infected surfaces?
It's both:
...but winter/summer is a tangent. The articles above are saying respiratory viruses spread better inside.
This isn't about winter/summer. This is about inside/outside.
(Having said that, people who think Winter will pose no additional risk for CV and other respiratory diseases are naive to say the least.)
How are the BBC falling for this blatant ‘Look, a squirrel!’ nonsense? We have the worst infection rates in Europe, any quarantine would be for the protection of the new arrival, not vice versa. Plus there are virtually no bloody flights!
Does seem remarkable that we haven't done this sooner , but it's months late now, and many weeks behind what other countries have done, my mate & his gf were shocked when they flew back from New York in mid March when everyone from their flight got onto the picadily line to go home
