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BTW, projection from 2020-10-19 was bang on accounting for negative curvature in admissions that became apparent a few days later 🙂 . But in reality, forward projection of an exponential process is always challenging. Calling a zenith and nadir especially so. Total epidemic size - waste of time for an emergent pathogen.
OK, England is definitely a better fit (also to the hindcast)...but also well outside your forecast range, even before you issued your forecast..
On the bright side, what you are doing is a whole lot better than the utter drivel that the REACT group just press-released. Look, I can draw a wiggly line through noisy data! WTF they think that is useful for, I have no idea.
Is there any indication of the efficacy of the Oxford vaccine?
I’m assuming (always dangerous) that the reason we have heard the Pfizer announcement first is due to different regulatory environments, rather than actual timelines.
I have no idea.
You aren't alone there! Piecewise or local exponentiated polynomial models are far better for inference. I told them that the system does not change that fast and any spline mode will hugely influence the regression by number of splines.
I'm pretty satisfied with my methodology - it's local, time bound and should be interpreted with caution. But it is now a counterfactual for evidence of influence of Tiers.
Hahah do those vertical lines represent the confidence intervals? HAH! Holy shit.
But it is now a counterfactual for evidence of influence of Tiers.
Hang on? So Tiers don't work?
Sefton, that's gammonFM, I'd give it a wide berth.
Hahah do those vertical lines represent the confidence intervals? HAH! Holy shit.
Very low numbers of samples at the ends of each sampling - exact Clopper-Pearson limits for 0/10 samples are wide.
Hang on? So Tiers don’t work?
Tier 1 does not control spread
Tier 2 may contain spread
Tier 3 may shrink the epidemic (R<1) - perhaps.
Lockdown shrinks the epidemic (R~0.8)
Is there any indication of the efficacy of the Oxford vaccine?
Oxford vaccine produces an antibody response that looks similar to Pfizer. It did not produce sterile immunity in animal challenge models. It will likely work the same. Duration and sterility of immunity are not known at this point.
I’m thinking more like the Thalidomide issues, where unknown side-effects may not show up for a few years or more. There’s been time for short-term issues to be flagged up but not enough for long-term ones. Absolutely agree that all the pharma companies will be very aware that they have a duty to not cock it up as public opinion on the safety of any drugs has to be very high for it to work.
You don't go dosing pregnant women with random drugs to find out whether they're teratogenic or not, you do mouse studies. Which will have been done on this. Thalidomide was a cock up of epic proportions because they didn't carry out those types of safety studies in animals.
Anyway, everything kills you - oxygen helps to give you cancer, tasty food kills you, every drug has a side effect. It's all about the risk benefit ratio, I'm way more worried about breathing in city air than I am about getting a vaccine. **** I'd probably take the Russian one if I got to breath clean air for the rest of my life.
Tier 1 does not control spread
Tier 2 may contain spread
Tier 3 may shrink the epidemic (R<1) – perhaps.
Lockdown shrinks the epidemic (R~0.8)
Yup, fits pretty much exactly with my semi-professional guess at how the tiers would work in practice.
Thalidomide was a cock up of epic proportions because they didn’t carry out those types of safety studies in animals.
Actually it wasn't - that's post-hoc reasoning. Up to and including thalidomide, drugs were not tested for teratogenicity. After, they all are. Thalidomide is a very effective medicine, but must never be administered to a woman of child bearing potential without appropriate controls.
It was reports of neuropathy toxicity that kept it from approval in the US not teratogenicity.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4737249/
Anyway, sefton raises a point, how is the testing and results going in Liverpool? Haven't seen much news on it.
Thalidomide happened because testing and knowledge at that time was no where near as advanced as it is now.
As bad as it was it actually had an incredibly good outcome for humanity as it let to massive regulatory changes and also good manufacturing practise which is what keeps us safe from crap drugs.
a true cock up in terms of drugs was the tegenero clinical trial. That was a true screw up.
The joke doing the rounds now is:
"Boris would like to thank the people of Liverpool for participating in the mass DNA test. Merseyside Police are now rapidly working through a backlog of unsolved crimes"
Lockdown shrinks the epidemic (R~0.8)
Lockdown v1.0, or Lockdown v2.0?
Lockdown v1.0
33,470 new cases today. Wow. 🙁
33,470 new cases today. Wow.
Wow. How is it exploding so much and where? Reports where that it was falling in London, yet increased a lot in Hull.
Compared to March we have Tiers, Lockdowns, masks, sanitiser and distancing where its all being used, so what gives?
We're f*~ked really, let's be honest here.
Perhaps it is linked to the mass testing in Liverpool, but surely that would have shown up already?
33,470 new cases today. Wow.
Wow. How is it exploding so much and where? Reports where that it was falling in London, yet increased a lot in Hull.
Compared to March we have Tiers, Lockdowns, masks, sanitiser and distancing where its all being used, so what gives?
OMG ... A coronavirus spread through schools... who'd have thunk it...??????
OMG … A coronavirus spread through schools… who’d have thunk it…??????
Where the evidence that to blame? Both of my kids have been at separate school's since July with a short summer break. Nothing.
Up is down.
War is peace.
Schools are immune.
Get with the programme.
Is this another case of tests found the back of the sofa?
Up is down.
War is peace.
Schools are immune.
This. “Lockdown 2.0 had” to coincide with a two week half term. Anything else was either naive or reckless. Yes, parents would have moaned about an extra week with the kids off… but the lack of proper control measures means lots of missing teachers right now… and class and year closures (locally at least).
Wow. How is it exploding so much and where? Reports where that it was falling in London, yet increased a lot in Hull.
Blame is the wrong term here. This is a pathogen that spreads about twice as rapidly as flu. It is passed on by children, notably in secondary schools, who suffer little morbidity and almost zero mortality. Normal behaviours naturally lead to very rapid spread. Modified behaviours lead to reduced spread. Lockdown behaviours with schools open may control spread. Lockdown behaviours with schools closed do control the epidemic. Northern Ireland and Scotland both showed impressive declines with schools closed and additional controls.
There is little immunity to prevent spread (<20%) which means restricting contacts is the only effective control strategy. Vaccines may give further options. The Tiers and Lockdown will control the current spread. That is not a long-term strategy but it is the only one we can play at present.
The current wave will turn over in a week or so, most of the regions have flattened in cases and admissions in the past week.
The time of year that respiratory viruses are usually at large?
People debunk case figures and say its all dependent on how many people you test each day. We only did something like 10,000 tests in spring as opposed to 250,000 now (something like this)
So I'd love to know if there is anything in this kind of statement(because I've heard it a million times)
Apologies if this has previously been discussed.
Where the evidence that to blame? Both of my kids have been at separate school’s since July with a short summer break. Nothing.
Yeah, amazing when they get told not to get tested and it's all hushed up that they don't test positive.
Both OH's primary and Jnr's secondary have been issuing instructions NOT to be tested...just take 2 weeks off for the bubble so entire bubbles may have been infected but noone will count because they were told do not try and get tested.
Where the evidence that to blame?
Lack of evidence isn't the same thing as evidence.
Have you and the kids been tested ???
So you don't know if you had it or not...
one of my best mates who ticks several high risk boxes is in France where you can get a walk in test at pharmacies. He'd no idea he'd had it.
Is this another case of tests found the back of the sofa?
Steady on, this isn't the US Election thread, you know.
TiReD
This is a pathogen that spreads about twice as rapidly as flu. It is passed on by children, notably in secondary schools, who suffer little morbidity and almost zero mortality.
As I said... a coronavirus passed on by school children.... who'd have ever thought that might happen?
In the absence of hard evidence to the contrary surely the assumption would be that transmission will follow that of other corona viri ???
People debunk case figures and say its all dependent on how many people you test each day. We only did something like 10,000 tests in spring as opposed to 250,000 now (something like this)
A handy reminder, thanks.
Have you and the kids been tested ???
So you don’t know if you had it or not…
Fair point I had a bad illness which was described as “Flu and Gastro” in Feb by a Doc, Junior and I had a cough in September and we both tested negative, my youngest had cold symptoms a month ago. Both kids and me (Asthmatic) are 3 weeks into flu jabs
So the answer is, no idea! Thanks for the summary TiRed, makes a lot of sense.
During the first lockdown everyone who i know was super scared and thus very careful because they thought they could die if they caught it (to be super blunt)
I also think most people thought the first lockdown would be the end of it. It also something of a novelty
I don't believe people feel like this at all now.
Both OH’s primary and Jnr’s secondary have been issuing instructions NOT to be tested…just take 2 weeks off for the bubble so entire bubbles may have been infected but noone will count because they were told do not try and get tested.
I hope Tired is right and it goes down however, with us one kid tests positive, close contacts sent home this is not the entire year group bubble just kids sat next to them in lessons. Contacts are not tested unless they develope symptoms. Siblings in other years can still come into school. If schools are remaining open we need need to go hard on the testing and isolating the current system has far too many cracks in it
Fair point I had a bad illness which was described as “Flu and Gastro” in Feb by a Doc, Junior and I had a cough in September and we both tested negative, my youngest had cold symptoms a month ago. Both kids and me (Asthmatic) are 3 weeks into flu jabs
So the answer is, no idea!
Yep and all depends what was tested.
My friend just lost his wife and was in and out of hospitals for 2mo being tested to see if he had it then. She was tested daily as he was in ICU and because she was on a transplant list ... and didn't test positive
It's been a month since but the antibody test (x2) say's he's producing antibodies so it seems very likely he either had it earlier on in the month since. [who knows] He ticks almost every box for complications... except ethnicity as he is 50% caucasian, 25% cherokee and 25% mixed mexican.
the current system has far too many cracks in it
It's nothing but crack.
Anecdote time... not in a position to name this primary school... but this is how it's going down... teacher tests positive, isolates, another teacher steps in to cover their class... tests positive, isolates... another teacher steps in... awaits the inevitable. Head asks PHE etc for tests for kids in that class, but can't get them... and guidelines aren't to send the class into distance learning. What's the head to do?
I hope Tired is right and it goes down however, with us one kid tests positive, close contacts sent home this is not the entire year group bubble just kids sat next to them in lessons. Contacts are not tested unless they develope symptoms. Siblings in other years can still come into school.
Yep and looking at the asymptomatic and mildly symptomatic the outcome seems kinda obvious?
OH was told to quarantine for 2 weeks on a staff/yr group but told not get tested (which to be fair would likely not have happened)... meanwhile Jnr was/is going into his school where so far they found a reason for every positive test why noone else needs to quarantine.
We get informed by PDF with "a pupil in yr x has tested positive however after contacting PHE we are advised noone else needs to quarantine" [then lots of nice words in the form of a salad]
What’s he to do?
Not much he can do. Its PHE's call.
OH was told to quarantine for 2 weeks on a staff/yr group but told not get tested
Unless they develop symptoms, same as I was told when mrs anagallis had it. A number on here started having a pop at me for not being tested but I did not qualify for a test. To be clear though, it isnt the school saying this its PHE and trach'n'trace
Yup, it's not the schools ignoring guidelines... it's because the government are trying to catch water in a sieve (provided by failures and cronies)... ...but hey, it's just teachers and their loopy unions, who cares about them and their families? Circuit breaker including a longer half term was the least bad option available... and should have been used.
but hey, it’s just teachers and their loopy unions, who cares about them and their families?
Yeah, ****ers they have too many holidays anyway!?
Actually it wasn’t – that’s post-hoc reasoning. Up to and including thalidomide, drugs were not tested for teratogenicity. After, they all are. Thalidomide is a very effective medicine, but must never be administered to a woman of child bearing potential without appropriate controls.
It was reports of neuropathy toxicity that kept it from approval in the US not teratogenicity.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4737249//blockquote >
Yes, they didn't do these at the time. However, it was a cock up because had they followed some fairly basic quality principles that other industries had embraced at the time - they might have recognised that it was a good idea to do those studies. There were a lot of things caught in a preventative fashion in the aerospace industry at that time.
Pharma always, always lags behind everyone else in terms of cutting edge quality assurance and that is coming from someone who works in that field within that industry.
It's 2020 and I'm still reviewing paper batch records and paper deviations because what the ****, let's take 20 ****ing years to implement eQMS and electronic batch records. (I'm about to go and work for a big multinational where this is also true as well).
AA
To be clear though, it isnt the school saying this its PHE and trach’n’trace
Yep but .. common sense ???
but hey, it’s just teachers and their loopy unions, who cares about them and their families
it's WAY bigger... what about the families of the other children?
what about the families of the other schools of siblings?
It's not rocket science ... you couldn't make it up
"You need to self isolate for 2 wks as you may have CV"
"Oh OK but my kids are going into other schools"
"Oh PHE says not to worry, CV can't be spread in schools"
"Oh so why do I need to self isolate?"
"You have been in contact with someone with CV"
"But it was in school and CV can't spread in schools"
"Oh but I can spread it at home to by kids"
"Yes"
"But they can't spread it in school"
"No"
"Can they spread it walking to school"
"No but if they go anywhere else they can spread it outside"
"So they should isolate except for school"
"No"
Yep but .. common sense ???
No such thing. The guidelines are clear... keep teaching those kids in their classrooms. The promised use of testing to make this "safe" just hasn't materialised.
I wondered how many would actually get the vaccine (if avaliable to them)....could it be lower than the number of people who downloaded the track and trace app? Given their perceived risk and inconvenience? Pretty much all but a few people ive spoken to over the last 6 months have said absolutely no way (but maybe its just hard talk or they haven't considered it that deeply)? I wondered if these kind of opinions will be demonised and thus the polls appear to show there would be a good uptake but when it comes to the crunch people don't come forth....just thinking aloud.
Re vaccine uptake, in the past I've had to show proof of vaccination from yellow fever and measles when travelling into or out of some countries. If countries want to stop importing covid its not a huge leap to imagine there might be a need to have proof of vaccination (or exemption) prior to entry, so if folk need the jab to go on holiday I expect that will change some attitudes. Probably not an issue in 21 but when vaccines are more readily available?
except ethnicity as he is 50% caucasian, 25% cherokee and 25% mixed mexican.
I can't be the only person thinking up names to match his ancestry...
Kenneth Flying Squirrel de Jesus?
kelvin
No such thing. The guidelines are clear… keep teaching those kids in their classrooms. The promised use of testing to make this “safe” just hasn’t materialised.
Surprised ? News brought to you by the same people who declared nursing homes safe then sent infected patients to them whilst preventing them getting PPE and THEN blamed the nursing homes?
Do you remember me saying.. they'll blame the teachers?
Even Dildo Hard-on... the world renowned expert didn't foresee that one coming!
I mean, you couldn't make this shit up.... if this was a TV drama (well fictional one) people would be moaning at the plot... "Oh come on, no-one is THAT STUPID" .. that Dildo character is totally unbelievable.
I'm going to reread the Expanse series...
in fact... how about that.. match the players in this real life drama to "The Expanse" ...
You are right in terms of systems that pharma is backwards. In terms of quality processes I have found that big pharma (the ones I have worked for) are a long way forwards now. Certainly the gmp areas anyway. Startups less good and cro's massively patchy depending on how much the sponsors have pushed them.
As ever there is still space for improvement (there always is) but things have come on hugely in the last 10 years on a risk based approach and assessment. DI is an ongoing battle (try gcp where they really don't understand that).
I have recently moved into gcp and di auditing for a big uk pharma from one of the other big uk pharmas (gmp area).
Moving to gcp after 10+ years in qc testing is a shock
You are right in terms of systems that pharma is backwards. In terms of quality processes I have found that big pharma (the ones I have worked for) are a long way forwards now.
These are linked though, if you don't have the systems, you don't have the quality. Humans are only so good at reviewing batch records, smart EBR systems can actually pick up a lot of the deviations for you. If you don't have eQMS it's really easy to lose situational awareness. We have quality managers and QP's who don't understand that RPNs are mathematically compromised, that just because a high frequency low severity deviation scores the same as a low frequency high risk deviation - they still shouldn't be treated the same way. That you can't put pre-qp batch reviewers on plant, for a 12 hour night shift and make them review 400 pages of documents without considering the risk of human error in that situation. The automotive and aviation world get this - instead I'm stuck with idiots who don't understand human cognitive performance, who utilise backward risk management and piss poor root cause investigations using 5 whys.
I hear you, sadly a fair amount of that sounds horribly familiar from previous roles.
esp the deviation scoring.
It does amaze me that human factors are only now starting to make inroads but like you say too many people who don't want to look at doing anything different as it might mean they have to do some work now, irrelevant of it saving lots of time in future
The one that used to do my head in the most was the attitude of we will just do a deviation if something is wrong. Ignoring the time needed to do it properly.
anyway enough of derailing the corona thread.
Any news on the mass Liverpool testing?
Yep but .. common sense ???
Isnt needed for a political football
kelvin
Yep but .. common sense ???
No such thing. The guidelines are clear
The problem is 2 fold - people unwilling to make sensible decisions and the government campaign of misinformation.
I'm sure right at the beginning of this I was arguing for masks but people were being told they increased the rate of infection....
I bought FFP2 and FFP3 masks and filters back in Feb and we as a family took the decision to take my mother out of a nursing home. My brother quit his job as he's lucky enough not to need the money.
This wasn't due to a certainty ... it was merely a precaution.
A mis-information example
Earlier in this discussion it was suggested that masks with a valve are useless ... which is most obviously not the case.
With proper precautions and fitting a FFP3 is as safe as you get without a full breathing apparatus.
Obviously the expelled air is less good than a non valved mask but better than no mask or a simple face shield but that completely misses the point.
If someone is wearing a FFP3 and as such hasn't contracted anything approaching a viral load then they aren't spreading the virus. This is an obvious advantage for high risk people like oooh say GP's...
So now we have 2 potential vaccines but no clear purpose as to their use....
A test and trace that has been as far as I can see deliberately screwed up (you'd have to try hard to mess it up that badly)
We have limited vaccines but no proof or even (as far as I can tell) reason to believe they confer a better immunity than actually having antibodies from already having had the virus yet we are studiously preventing people finding out if they already had it. How is it you can walk into a French pharmacy and get a antibody test but not in the UK?
We have government press leaks trying to reduce demand for a limited vaccine by scaring people
(which sounds like a repeat of the masks)
I might be wrong but isn't the point of the vaccine to protect those that are vulnerable?
Yet local FB is full of "I don't need it cos I'm 'ard"
I can only agree with AA
Isnt needed for a political football
Perhaps I shouldn't be surprised but that seems exactly what this is.... a whole load of oohs and cheers and shouts of referee and those that die or have their life screwed up are just casualties of a game of political football..
Yep but .. common sense ???
No such thing. The guidelines are clear
The problem is 2 fold – people unwilling to make sensible decisions and the government campaign of misinformation.
I was referring explicitly and specifically to the intention of the central government to keep kids in school premises without any serious mitigation to prevent spread of the virus there, taking away the option for local authorities, schools, heads, teachers, governors and parents to act to the contrary. Please do not take that quote as to mean that I think that government guidance has been appropriate, clear, timely or effective… as regards schools or more generally.
It could have been so much more effective. Two week shutdown over half term, much more strict and policed. This month long version is not doing anything effectively as there seems to be the normal amount of people out and about.
Why not do a two week lockdown over Xmas, we'll all have spent our money, have plenty of left over Turkey and booze to survive in. My olds have decided to reschedule their Christmas until it's safe to meet up.
Why aren't we don't quarantine properly like NZ. Trusting people to stay at home is ridiculous from what I've seen of people locally.
jonesyboy +1
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-england-merseyside-54885261
How does these results compare to the statistics/results from regular testing in Liverpool?
The article says from the 6th to the 10th 23,000 were tested and 154 positives were found . These positives had no symptoms.
kelvin
I was referring explicitly and specifically to the intention of the central government to keep kids in school premises without any serious mitigation to prevent spread of the virus there, taking away the option for local authorities, schools, heads, teachers, governors and parents to act to the contrary. Please do not take that quote as to mean that I think that government guidance has been appropriate, clear, timely or effective… as regards schools or more generally.
I didn't think you did but I think the wider context is important.
Hence my "but common sense". The UK/English government has taken away or made difficult for "common sense". In a school context that's blame the teachers... in the nursing homes it's blame the nursing homes and underlying it is the "you can do as you like but remember where you get funding from"
In a even bigger context they have even tried to interfere with the devolved parts of the union that wanted to take it more seriously and apply common sense.
Even pre-Barnard Castle we had mixed messages... pre-Boris getting infected he was deliberately saying keep 2m apart ON TV whilst not 2m apart .... it really is straight out of the 1984 playbook.
So they know kids are mostly asymptomatic,
And they'll only test those with symptoms...
Didn't Joseph Heller write a book about this?
I read a report that 80percent of positives have no symptoms...which made me think the whole testing thing is useless as 80percent of people would be getting on with their daily life and spreading the virus. While only 20percent of people with the virus have symptoms been tested and are isolating.
That's why (working) contact tracing is so important Sefton.
I read a report that 80percent of positives have no symptoms
80% of what? The ons survey? Liverpool testing? General testing through t&t?
The stat you've rolled out there would be really good and would mean that 80% of the population at large could forget about the whole thing. So now - how sure about this report are you?
IIRC they are testing folks with no symptoms, last numbers I saw were of 44000 tests, 250 ish were positive, about 0.05%.
At first glance, that seems low, but (only looking at Scots figures here, as thats all I've been looking at!) 'normal' testing, that of people who are actually showing symptoms, is around 6 or 7%, so going by that, you'd be looking for a much lower number tbh.
The Liverpool numbers would refute that, would they not? ie there's not a huge number of asymptomatic people at large.
The stat you’ve rolled out there would be really good and would mean that 80% of the population at large could forget about the whole thing.
Which is what has been said from the start:
Chris Whitty:
a point we made right from the beginning is that for many people this remains a mild infection
The Liverpool numbers would refute that, would they not? ie there’s not a huge number of asymptomatic people at large.
This is probably linked to the sample of people volunteering to take one of the new tests, which wont be a representative same of the general population, in the way that the ONS survey is.
If people dont have any symptoms why would they volunteer to have a test?
There seems to be a significant amount to lose (isolation, loss of earnings, etc) and not much to gain (confidence to visit vulnerable relatives, general piece of mind)
Remember, the ONS report is stating that people had no symptoms at the time of the test, not that they never developed symptoms (mild or severe) later. They could will have been pre-symptomatic, rather than asymptomatic.
Once again, the media headline does not quite match the data.
Why aren’t we
Just look at what we have in charge.
oh, and
so what does that mean for our current LockDown Lite?
We just gonna keep trollin on through winter bouncing between "growing quickly" and "only just growing" infection levels? or something else, another proper lockdown? do a USA and give up entirely?
What is their estimate for R in England?
The TPT was very busy earlier, almost like a bank holiday.
I was really hoping that as we moved into winter the trails and paths would go back to normal.
Too many casual cyclists without a clue, entitled dog-walkers and passive-aggressive ramblers.
And you were on it too, like a driver moaning about traffic! 😆
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/08/more-than-80-positive-cases-in-covid-study-had-no-core-symptoms/blockquote >
Oh. You'd hope the guardian would be a bit more careful. More or Less covered this a week or two ago and referenced the sun.As Kelvin above. It's not the full picture.
And you were on it too, like a driver moaning about traffic! 😆
I take your point but I'm not a casual or recreational user, plus I have a clue about how to ride a bike 😀
Lol, sorry, couldn't help myself!
We just gonna keep trollin on through winter bouncing between “growing quickly” and “only just growing” infection levels?
Pretty much like TiRed has been saying since the start then. There is no good option. But open and honest communication is his forte, not the government's.
Well Wales is reporting more Covid cases now in hospital than at the peak of the first wave, both confirmed and suspected cases. Seeing as they're still going ahead with the regular operations and treatments at the moment and having to work with reduced staffing numbers there is a real fear that capacity could quickly be reached. Thankfully the effects of the firebreak have still yet to filter through so there should be a reprieve on the way.
Keeping track of the usual winter spike in admissions is going to be critical.
R not below 1
so what does that mean for our current LockDown Lite?
It means that it's only been in place for a week so if it is affecting the spread of the virus it's still waaaay too early for any effect to be visible in that data. Come back in 2-3 weeks by which time it might be affecting cases, 3-4 weeks for hospital admissions and 5-6 weeks for deaths.
Just watched the latest Sage report. Really hard to take any positives from it at all. It seems like schools are quite clearly a driver, but I think we have known that for some time. How this can be managed, I have no idea. I'm just going to try and have a chilled out weekend, before I end up hitting the wall again.
Sage report on lockdown 2 released today
Seems to be saying with R at 1.1 daily deaths should be below 500
But we are consistently above that (~550)
Does that mean R is above 1.1 or is it just the lag?
Deaths do seem to be above projected (as I believe captain was saying)
React Round 6 data from Imperial - I've run an exponential cubic polynomial through the data and I think it shows a pretty clear picture. No spline wobbles @thecaptain - and I really don't think there should be either!
But open and honest communication is his forte, not the government’s.
Thank you. I try my best to make the science accessible.
But we are consistently above that (~550)
Deaths within 28 of positive test by date of death The headline panic number is too aggregated - the underlying rate is the 7-day rolling mean.
R in Scotland is now estimated to be below 1.0 but still a high number of deaths. Again, I assuming this is the lag, but it would appear that regional variations are greater than ever with some areas projected to go into Level 4 (that's tighter than English Tier 3) while others remain in Level 1. Unfortunately we're still seeing folk travelling between/across high and low level areas.