inkster
MemberAnyone see Newsnight last night? particularly the piece on South Africa.
They had their first case the same time as us, a week in they had more cases than us, they implemented lockdown 10 days before us.
When they got their first case I saw it summed up more or less like this: they have more experience of epidemics than we do, and they know they don't have any margin for error so they didn't piss about. We waited literally til the day a hospital had to close its doors because it was full. They saw the obvious, that waiting til your hospitals are full to start your lockdown is much like deciding to go to the toilet because your feet are wet.
COVID-19 death rate in deprived areas in England double that of better off places: ONS
Poorer people cant work from home!
"They banned the sale of alcohol for the duration of lockdown though."
Ah well f*** that then
I did say that in jest, but the reality is that all the south africans I know are (white) middle class professionals. combine the crime rate with the cheap land and housing, they all live in gated houses or gated communities, and drive everywhere.
Their pre lockdown living was probably more socially distanced than a UK city is currently.
the poorer townships where people don't have plumbing, and must go to their street's communal water tap and toilet may not be so lucky.
I can imagine a lot of unreported home deaths.
Poorer people cant work from home!
Poorer people are generally in poorer health. Most commonly these 'lifestyle' conditions are pulmonary and cardiovascular in nature so are high risk factors for COVID-19.
So, truly sadly, it is of no suprise at all 🙁
What do we think the main transmission sources still are in the uk? Is there likely to be a big difference between towns/cities and rural?
Northwind,
Yup,. I think the key word here is obvious.
At times like these, we the public don't need to listen to scientists. [quiet there, I said need]
Politicians need to listen to scientists.
We the public need leadership.
In a parallel, counterfactual universe, had Rory Stewart won the Tory leadership contest we would probably be looking at a death count in the hundreds.
Check the date, [19th March] He was saying the same for the preceding two weeks as well.
while they haven't said how those decile groups are defined, pretty much everything that will "move you down the ranking" corresponds to an increased risk. And while it's age standardised, it can't account for how all the other economic:health factors vary between people of the same age.
Dantsw 13
The main transmission source here is, and always has been, the Government.
ayjaydoubleyou.
I'm sure they have many unreported deaths, missed by the 30,000 community health workers no doubt.
What do we think the main transmission sources still are in the uk? Is there likely to be a big difference between towns/cities and rural?
Absolutely. Many rural areas lack meaningful public transport so you've immediately ruled out a big one. Folk are also more likely to do one weekly/fortnightly shop in the nearest town rather than popping in regularly. And if we accept that simply mingling near other people during exercise is a real issue then there's less pressure on local paths and tracks. The lockdown we have has also stopped folk from other areas travelling to the country, cutting out transmission that way. It's possible that some of the islands could exit lockdown before the mainland as test, track and trace will be easier with limited entry points.
Is there likely to be a big difference between towns/cities and rural?
At a guess, yes. A lot of key workers are still using public transport; we have bigger supermarkets which therefore contain more people with which to mix, and we have the hospitals where people are being treated and lots of key workers are travelling to and from - often from other places nearby.
It’s possible that some of the islands could exit lockdown before the mainland as test, track and trace will be easier with limited entry points.
I'm also expecting Wales and Scotland to bring people out of lockdown before England - even if it's region by region, because of the lower population density.
I’m also expecting Wales and Scotland to bring people out of lockdown before England – even if it’s region by region, because of the lower population density.
It really has to be the whole mainland moving as one.
If the regions move at different speeds how do you stop people who live near the border from crossing it?
When Italy first tried to control things they treat different regions differently and all that happened was that people fled from highly controlled areas to less controlled areas, which made the spread worse.
Yeah, that ain't gonna happen. See the comments about locking down London before the rest of the country.
Skye only had their first confirmed cases yesterday. It could be that we are past the urban peak, but the rural is still to come.
If the regions move at different speeds how do you stop people who live near the border from crossing it?
You could set up a couple of crossing points at the Great Glen and isolate the whole Highlands north of it.
A82/A85 would be a simple break point with again very few crossing points, though that area would then include Dundee and Aberdeen so perhaps isn't rural enough.
There are 28 road crossings at the Scottish/English border. Even closing off a few of the minor ones it would likely still be too onerous to control.
It all depends on test, track and trace though.
Skye only had their first confirmed cases yesterday. It could be that we are past the urban peak, but the rural is still to come.
There's definitely an element of "it won't happen here" amongst many residents of the Highlands and Islands.
Good news if correct
Scientists in Korea say coronavirus cannot be caught twice
https://f7td5.app.goo.gl/N6pqTz
Sent via @updayUK
Saw the news from Korea earlier. Please let it be true!
I'm going to want to see their working tbh but that's massive if true
Tests for party members…
[img] https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EW4FPIIX0AArkT7?format=png&name=small [/img]
My mum (who is in the catchment age and is ill with symptoms) had no idea how to get a test… Tory Party membership get a big APPLY NOW button in their mailbox.
Number of tests gave false positives, so when re-tested they initially thought it possible to be infected twice, now they are saying it's impossible to have it twice
123k tests done in the 24hrs to 9am this morning, he's only bloody gone and done it
No he hasn't. This includes the mailed out testing kits. NOT tests carried out or even done.
No Astra Zeneca and GSK dun it, probably by working overnight too.
I will want to see the numbers for the 3 days on either side before I make any sort of judgement, wouldn't be at all surprised if it falls way back down
123k tests done in the 24hrs to 9am this morning, he’s only bloody gone and done it
He really hasn't. That would be like Singletrack printing 200000 copies and then saying that means they have 200000 readers despite most of those copies still being in the post or on the shelf.
it was 100,000 tests per day not 100,000 tests in a day. lets wait and see saturdays, sundays and mondays results before cracking open the bollinger
70-80,000 tests still good going. The fluffing of the figures is a shame… some honesty about massively ramping up capacity, but not quite hitting an arbitrarily target for people being tested daily would set a better tone about the challenges facing the country I feel.
The numbers given by Newton in the presser were 93000 tests processed in the programme plus 27000 tests sent out to home addresses.
Since the start of the home test programme they’ve always been counted on the day they were sent out, so with 10000 sent out 3 days ago & come back, whichever way you count it that’s 100000/day.
Can't see the Scottish Islands being prepared to 'open up' judging by the comments on some of the island FB pages. They've been pretty well isolated due to ferry restrictions and some are pretty suspicious of anyone - there was a bit of a hubbub in Tobermory last week when some tourists turned up.
I'm on Shetland, we've had pretty static figures (for what those figures are worth) for a while and there has been talk of us being a test island for a tracing app and measures easing. I can tell you most people I know are not keen on being a test case or easing.
Currently no non-essential travel to the mainland or between islands and what public transport their was is massively reduced. Our biggest risk is definitely going to the shop.
Social distancing is fairly easy but people are definitely getting more lax.
If the regions move at different speeds how do you stop people who live near the border from crossing it?
You can't physically stop it any more than people are physically stopped now. You'd just have to police it. It wouldn't stop everyone but it would restrict greatly.
Sorry, I was suggesting removal of the lockdown could be done on an intra-regional basis, not an inter-regional one. Crossing points would only be needed for essential traffic.
Can any of our experts tell me about Remdesivir? I just watched a video by the Gilead CEO saying it was only a drug for the most severe patients. I know it has significantly reduced Virus lifespan and recovery times, but has it actually reduced the mortality rate?
@Sandwich, do you reckon I could use the “I’ve been trapped on a ship with nothing but a 15m wide helideck to walk around for the past 10 weeks” excuse to be out for a healthy mind stabilising walk of many hours long?
Might be getting a bit cheeky if I do.!
I’ve just written a Translational Pharmacology review of Remdesivir. I have no confidence that it does anything whatsoever. In the one published randomised controlled trial in the Lancet, it did not move the needle on viral load one bit. Nor did it move any of the clinical endpoints. The noise you hear in the media is from uncontrolled trials. Including Gilead’s, with a hint of an effect suggested from the NIH trial.
Sorry.
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31022-9/fulltext
Figure 3 🙁
BTW the notion that it is for the most severe patients seems laughable. That was one of the reasons proposed as to why it did NOT work for Ebola patients. Wanting a drug to work is one thing, but it’s not homeopathy. You have to show pharmacology. I can’t see any in that Lancet paper. The Ebola trial was uncontrolled but had two antibodies that did work. One from the same company that I’m working with now.
Oh well. Next!!!
What’s that new Japanese drug going into U.K. trials?
Sarilumab works at 400mg, tocilizumab will also work. These are two antibodies against IL-6 pathway. They are drugs that nobody dying of COVID should not have on board. The nuclear anti-cytokine option. Others are being tested.
The Japanese drug is favipirivir. Another antiviral. Might have a better prospect as it is a little more potent.
The absence of any decent antiviral is why you are sat at home. Influenza has reasonably effective treatments.
I think it was Favipiravir I was reading about?
So would those top 2 stop an otherwise healthy patient suffering the cytokine storm that we hear being the big issue?
Are they currently just on trial or an active treatment?
Anti il6 is for at death’s door. They may work earlier to mop up the storm. We won’t know. As they won’t be tested there. Like oncology, you go worst case first. Tocilizumab is IV. Sarilumab is as too. I spent five years working on an anti IL6 for RA.
The only solid data I have seen on earlier infection is the hydroxychloroquine azithromycin data. Studies are mostly too small and in too late patients. A community study is challenging just because.
During the 2009 pandemic you could send a friend to collect tamiflu. You didn’t need a prescription. And tamiflu is an approved drug. We don’t have that approved drug this time.
At the time though, do I remember rightly that Tamiflu and Relenza (was given a box by work!) on averaged just shortened flu from 9 days to 7 days or something? I mean, that's better than nothing, but not amazing. My memory could be hazy though...
mehr
Subscriber
123k tests done in the 24hrs to 9am this morning, he’s only bloody gone and done it
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52508836
Erm 40k were posted out today
So he's fallen short
Obvious that they'd try & fiddle this somehow, Hancock has a public history of making stuff up
Anyway at least the pressure on them from the media has forced them to increase testing
What's tragic is that we must easily have capacity for a million? tests a day -3 hr qpcr run,96- 384 samples per run, between nhs, academia & pharma must be >1000? qpcr machines in country
1/4 million life science staff, 1/10th of them could run that easily
I know limiting factor here is extraction kits & reagents, as well as access to those who need tbem, just a shame that it was left so late
123k tests done in the 24hrs to 9am this morning, he’s only bloody gone and done it
He didn’t though. Tories - just can’t stop themselves lying.
