Is anyone else getting a big blue and white circle with a black cross on, coming up and covering most of the page on this thread? Seems to happen every time I open it today. Doesnt seem to be happening on other threads. I've not clicked on the cross for obvious reasons.
edit. actually it's happening on all threads, I'll pop a differenrte thread up about it so as not to derail this one at all.
Is anyone else getting a big blue and white circle
I very briefly thought this was some bizarre new symptom
But no I’m not getting that
What are people’s thoughts on the Recovery Trial?
The plural of anecdote is not data, and the plural of case report is not clinical trial.
It is the only objective means of obtaining data in a controlled manner on the use of multiple therapeutic agents in the possible treatment of an infectious agent. A large sample size, control group and randomization will provide sound data. Platform trials such as this mean that you minimize the number of control patients (who receive standard of care). I've helped in a small way.
It may be surprising to learn that effects noted in small trials tend to dissipate in larger trials due to selection bias and regression to the mean - we pick early good'uns and when you shine a big light on them, they aren't as good as you first thought.
We had a limited number of tests, so abandoned any attempt to test and trace in the community when WHO was saying to do the exact opposite.
I can't get my head around how community tests/contact tracing can ever scale across a population. For an initial outbreak, yes. But across a country? Would love a simple description of what they're doing in Germany (more than they're doing loads of tests).
Even in lockdown, say I pop up on some community test as CV19 positive. So you trace contacts to the wife, the supermarket I went to, and the garage I bought some diesel from. So then you quarantine all possible folks who I interacted with?
Even if we had the test resources, manpower and tech to do all this, wouldn't you end up quarantining most of the population anyway?
According to who? No one has said that.
You've changed your tune.
Pretty busy on the roads today.
Cars parked up on my night ride route doing clandestine drug deals.
You’ve changed your tune.
No one has ever said you shouldn’t leave your house. We all need exercise. Just keep it local.
Pretty busy on the roads today.
going by todays ride and the release of the police cheat sheet for the most intent and purposes where middle england is concerned the lockdown is over.
I've noticed a lot more activity in my town this week. I guess they weren't kidding when the behavioural scientists said that lockdown could only realistically be applied for a short period.
On the subject of lockdowns, CNN have an article on the Turkish approach https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/17/europe/turkey-coronavirus-lockdown-response-intl/index.html
During the week, the stay-at-home order only applies to those under the age of 20 or over 65. All other citizens are in theory allowed to go out, although many small businesses are closed, restaurants are open for delivery or pick-up only, public places like parks are off limits, and banks have limited hours.
Just been out - much busier on the roads - almost back to normal on the main road. Waaaaay busier than what i've seen cycling recently. Can one document have made so much of a difference in a day?
Can one document have made so much of a difference in a day?
Yes. Which is why the press shouldn't have published internal police guidance. Busier in the village here too. People driving up the hill again for a walk.
Can one document have made so much of a difference in a day?
I hope not - making that public was a ridiculous mistake.
Not been any busier round the village today - given the forecast for showers later, maybe people are getting out early
I can’t get my head around how community tests/contact tracing can ever scale across a population. For an initial outbreak, yes. But across a country? Would love a simple description of what they’re doing in Germany (more than they’re doing loads of tests).
Even in lockdown, say I pop up on some community test as CV19 positive. So you trace contacts to the wife, the supermarket I went to, and the garage I bought some diesel from. So then you quarantine all possible folks who I interacted with?
Even if we had the test resources, manpower and tech to do all this, wouldn’t you end up quarantining most of the population anyway?
I'd be interested in chapter and verse on this too. Until someone more knowledgeable provides a better link here's an English Language article on German Testing from Die Spiegel which makes Germany sound pretty haphazard:
I presume care homes record visitors and staff, so if they can't track down the person who brought CV I don't see how it's done on a national scale.
Can one document have made so much of a difference in a day?
To answer my own question, it seems it can if the local faceache groups are anything to go by... multiple posts of people saying where they're going to drive to in each group (i'm in an awful lot of local groups due to being involved in a local land access group), referencing the document indirectly via BBC and radio.
Seems stupid to me.
I’d be interested in chapter and verse on this too. Until someone more knowledgeable provides a better link here’s an English Language article on German Testing from Die Spiegel which makes Germany sound pretty haphazard:
I presume care homes record visitors and staff, so if they can’t track down the person who brought CV I don’t see how it’s done on a national scale.
Ta. I'll have a read. A mistake in my previous post, you'd test everyone you came in contact with (not immediately assume positive and quarantine). But still, that's a huge (impossible?) task.
Social distancing has reduced the R number
As we aren't testing in the community we have no way of knowing what the R number was, currently is or will be tomorrow. We only know what it is for hospital patients and some staff.
Mr Hancock has said the lack of staff testing is due to the staff not asking for the test. Chinny reckon says I.
Seems stupid to me.
Agreed.
People can’t separate advice for police about what they should be stopping, from advice for the public about what we should be doing.
As we aren’t testing in the community we have no way of knowing what the R number was, currently is or will be tomorrow
They can have a good stab at what it was two weeks ago, but no way of knowing what it might be right now.
South Korea seems the only country to have got it right from the start , Merkel said restrictions would have to stay in place for some time to keep it manageable for Germany.
https://www.wired.co.uk/article/south-korea-coronavirus
That's why UK government ignoring WHO & abandoning test, track n trace so early was hurting us so badly
Example of how it can be done in Italy
require gradual easing on lockdowns as country is cleared region by region & careful monitoring of any resurgence
And digital tracking will have to be a part of it
Huge task , that government need to be on top of now
Depressing insight into our failure to test here https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/apr/16/swab-tester-uk-germany-south-korea
From the Speigel link Germany seem to have the same priority order as Public Health England:
"Police officers, fire fighters and especially people in the health-care industry are regularly in contact with at-risk patients. There we have to be as sure as we can that these people are not infected."
The rest of the population should only be tested when they exhibit strong symptoms that require hospital care, Hoelscher says. "Those that only have mild symptoms should please stay home and not demand a test.
From the Speigel link Germany seem to have the same priority order as Public Health England:
Except weve not been able to keep up with testing of NHS staff, & care workers a recent afterthought
In one Italian town
I don't think anyone is asking how you'd do a comprehensive contact trace and test of single town with 3,000 inhabitants. More interested in the specific detail of how it's done in (say) Germany.
As we aren’t testing in the community we have no way of knowing what the R number was, currently is or will be tomorrow
You don't need to know the exact value to make the call that it has changed. The flattened curve of cumulative cases and deaths tells that story. And since one component is contact rate, this is change self-evident. The others are probability of transmission (wear a mask) and duration of infectiousness (stay in if symptoms or tested). A good original guess is somewhere around 2-3.
As predicted:
I've just come back from my local Asda and it was packed inside with no distancing at all going on (in some aisles there were 15+ people). After paying (and spend half my time swerving people) I asked the manager if there new policy was to let more people in and she said yes and walked off, though tbf she looked pretty stressed
It was always going to happen the longer the lockdown went on, people who haven't had it are losing touch with the reality of the situation
Journos and certain politicians demanding an exit strategy have added to the potential crumbling of the current lockdown strategy.
Maybe the government should just issue their daily statement and drop the Q and A? The journalists just keep repeating the same questions, on a daily basis, anyway. Far too concerned with landing the killer blow and making a name for themselves IMO.
Traffic is noticeably up since the Easter weekend, round these parts. Probably going to get even worse after those police guidelines were published.
Traffic is noticeably up since the Easter weekend, round these parts. Probably going to get even worse after those police guidelines were published.
Same here, there are more cars parked up around Peak District beauty spots, noticeably more traffic through town as well.
It's been so badly handled, it's more or less not even a lockdown any more. Which might help explain this:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/07/uk-will-be-europes-worst-hit-by-coronavirus-study-predicts
I reckon this weekend will see a surge in people driving out somewhere for a walk or ride (or picnic...), a spike in traffic accidents and MR callouts and then in 2 weeks time, a spike in Covid death rates.
Except weve not been able to keep up with testing of NHS staff, & care workers a recent afterthought
Halfcock is saying NHS staff are not taking up the opportunity to be tested while other reports say NHS staff being turned away because they don't have an appointment.
Probably going to get even worse after those police guidelines were published.
Seems such an obvious blunder starting to wonder if it's a lockdown relaxation by stealth 🙂
Tesco next to me have extended their opening hours and removed a small amount of the social distancing stuff in store. Maybe policy from head office?
@Chest_Rockwell I disagree - just being told that lockdown is continuing with no suggestion of how or when it will end is incredibly demoralising. I'd have thought giving some qualified suggestion of at what point they expect to be able to lift it would help people. I think the visibly more people driving around and groups that don't look like family groups, is down to the feeling of 'at least another three weeks.. **** this!'
Publishing all that police advice is daft too. Another thing is the way various councils have acted in slightly different ways so there is still mixed messages.
Regarding exercise, the seemingly arbitrary choice of what exercise is allowed is causing frustration and damaging willingness to comply. For example, you have groups like the RNLI saying 'stay out of the sea' while Devon and Cornwall police saying it's ok to go surfing. It all adds to the confusion and resentment. I've seen so many on social media saying - if you can ride a bike I'm going to do xyz as it's safer.
Driving to work 2hrs ago I would say the traffic was back up to the usual just after weekday lunch levels.
However there were no Reps racing or flustered looking mum's with kids in the car, but what there were was loads of old giffers up to 3 in each car!
This was on the Wirral that I suspect has an older demographic than many places, once through the tunnel Liverpool was almost deserted 😮
Another thing that riled me yesterday was a delivery driver from dpd completely ignored social distancing when dropping something off; apparently had to take a photo of an open door so barged past me to get his picture
I've tested negative, so I'm really looking forward to going back for another round of CV19 roulette.
A part of the perception problem is that people who have isolated have little idea of the severity of the acute cases we see; it's not real enough and they don't see the people who simply aren't there anymore. Add to this the essentially lonely nature of life in big cities, the lack of community feeling and it's easy to see that any relaxation will see a potential rise in new cases.
I’ve seen so many on social media saying – if you can ride a bike I’m going to do xyz
This is why it was important not to take the piss, but nevermind; that genie is out of that bottle and I can't see us being short of customers for a good while yet.
Reposting from the heavy handed police thread...
I’ve just been copied an email from Police Scotland Comms stating a few things about the NPCC guidance that has been doing the social media rounds due to the confusion it has caused. It was actually guidance for the CPS. It only applied to England and the NPCC are putting out some clarifications on it.
They’re also pointing out to media that the advice issued by both Police Scotland and the Scottish Government has been really clear – people should not drive somewhere for exercise/dog walking etc.
Seems such an obvious blunder starting to wonder if it’s a lockdown relaxation by stealth
That would be horrific. With reports that Nightingale is practically empty lets hope some bright spark hasnt thought of letting us out to fill it up a bit... New reports hinting at a link to Tireds info that we’ll get up to six waves of C19 before next Spring prompting various patterns of lockdown to come...
Thank you Crikey. Really feel for you.
FWIW Aviemore and surroundings is absolutely dead. There has been no increase in traffic whatsoever. In fact, it was quieter today than it was when I started self-isolation two weeks ago.
Shame really.
It's lovely.
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Huh, I thought I was imagining a sudden surge in people in the woods and parked around the Forest this morning. I see why now.
Well, the drive to a lovely spot people will be making this a whole lot trickier:
https://twitter.com/guardian/status/1251166375730491397?s=21
Mr Hancock has said the lack of staff testing is due to the staff not asking for the test.
That's so when the end of the month testing target isn't met he can blame it on staff not turning up.
North Northumberland roads are pretty quite SE Northumberland it’s just like a normal week day. 🤦🏻♂️
I’m expecting a desk banging lockdown reminder on the c19 update in 40 mins. Let’s hope so.
