Take care Crikey, that is truly horrendous. Hope all make a full recovery.
Heart goes out to you crikey, and all your colleagues
@crikey That's awful, I'm dreading hearing similar news of one of my colleagues. Look after yourselves, I hope every goes well for them
Good to see the STW Puritan Stasi being as efficient as ever.
China's just revised the Wuhan death toll up by 50%, due to delayed reports and including those that died outside hospital. It's not a coverup.
Right then, a decision to make.
I’ve got an appointment to give blood in a weeks time, the donation centre is open and based on the emails I’ve got, they’re desperate for donors.
The donation centre is in the centre of Birmingham, half an hour on the train from home or an hour on the bike.
I’m pretty sure I’ve already had the virus and it will have been well over over 3 weeks since the last symptoms.
Should I go?
Yes.
Good to see the STW Puritan Stasi being as efficient as ever.
Did you read Crikey’s post?
Scary times for those exposed to this, to keep our health and care system working. Think of them.
Ring them to check their criteria - no point a wasted journey if they want you to wait a couple of weeks
Good luck to you and your colleagues Crikey, an awful predicament, I hope it works out well for you all.
I’m pretty convinced lockdown will be until mid June at least, with maybe the kids then going back for a final few weeks of school. Why would it be any shorter than Italy/Spains 12+ weeks?
Any one noted EasyJet’s stance of not filling the middle row when we started flying again? Can’t see that making much difference in a tube of recycled air tbh, plus it’s only a gap of about 2.5 feet. They, and one other regional airline are stating they are budgeting for a early to mid 2021 general start, which of course predicts not much flying in 2020, yet Jet2 insisting - currently - flights and holidays from mid June. I just can’t see that happening. We have a deposit on a Canary Island family holiday in mid August and have told the kids it’s very unlikely we’ll go - impacted from this end and thiers - can’t see why they’d want a mass influx of foreigners shortly after / still during a pandemic.
Once the vaccine is developed (18 months?), how long will it take to manufacture enough for the world??
And how are they going to distribute if fairly. I don't think the UK has any facility to manufacture a vaccine does it?
And we'll have left the EU by then, so we'll have to negotiate for it on our own.
@crikey.
I have no idea how you and your colleagues deal with the emotional strain that this must put you under.
A terrible thing to have to deal with.
From now on I'm going to be thinking about how lucky I am to not have to deal with that kind of shit instead for worrying about very minor stuff.
Thanks to you and all your colleagues, you lot really are heros.
Take care mate.
Right then, a decision to make.
I’ve got an appointment to give blood in a weeks time, the donation centre is open and based on the emails I’ve got, they’re desperate for donors.
The donation centre is in the centre of Birmingham, half an hour on the train from home or an hour on the bike.
I’m pretty sure I’ve already had the virus and it will have been well over over 3 weeks since the last symptoms.
Should I go?
Give them a bell beforehand - I had a similar thing last week, they very helpfully did the triage over the phone and advised not to come. My symptoms were more recent than three weeks ago, though.
+1 to all the positive messages for Crikey and everyone else in the trenches. I really hope, as a country, we come out of this with a much bigger appreciation of what the staff in all our services give us.
yet Jet2 insisting – currently – flights and holidays from mid June. I just can’t see that happening. We have a deposit on a Canary Island family holiday in mid August and have told the kids it’s very unlikely we’ll go –
I rebooked our Easter cycling trip to Mallorca to October half term, cant see it happening really.
So you think I can drive to the Peaks (1.2h) and go cycling all day and come back?
Putting everything else to one side for a minute, maintaining social distancing on some bridleways is really problematic as soon as you throw in a few other users, the odd walker, another mountain biker or two etc. Plus some farmers are illegally closing rights of way. Plus think about the local MRTs who are running very limited cover and trying to maintain social distancing from each other at the same time.
I'd suggest that all the above make it quite a bad idea tbh. 'Can' and 'should' are very different things.
Fingers crossed for you and your colleagues, crikey. As above, I have no idea how you cope, but we owe you all a huge debt of gratitude.
@lunge I’d also check on the blood website for current stocks of your blood type, unless it’s low I wouldn’t go tbh.
I went about 3 weeks ago, on day 3 of lockdown, there was a well spaced queue around the outside of the building but as soon as you’re inside you just can’t stay away from people. Tbh I felt pretty uncomfortable with the whole thing. I phoned while in the queue to check they wouldn’t send me away.
I don’t know much about what is manufactured where regarding tests. But is the German testing regime benefiting from the strength of the German chemicals industry?
Partly, many of the life sciences reagents we used are made in Germany.
3 key products required for testing
Swab to collect (big bottleneck for UK at the moment as to standardise test we want same brand & struggling, im not sure which government are using but similar stuff in our lab made in Asia)
Extraction kit to isolate viral RNA, best ones made in Germany
RT PCR reagents, chemicals & enzymes that are produced in UK , but greater numbers in Germany & Switzerland (that we use in our lab at least)
Germany moved quickly to secure a pipeline of all these supplies, Italy & Spain moved quicker than us too (Cox they had peak earlier), unfortunately we abandoned testing early on (WHO then told us off for abandoning test,test,test) when we finally decided to do it, many of the supply lines were booked up.
Hence why Matt Hancock panicked into paying £16m for dud antibody tests
I rebooked our Easter cycling trip to Mallorca to October half term, cant see it happening really.
That’s essentially how I’ve left it - if it’s possible we’ll do something to get a break in October, even if it’s short break in a seaside hotel or similar for the kids
Can’t believe Westminster Bridge ^^^!
Can’t believe Westminster Bridge ^^^!
I’ve not even been to a supermarket now for 4 weeks, only left the house to walk the dog or to ride my bike on an empty beach. Things like that make me wonder why I’m either bothering.
That vid klunk posted..wtf? This is why we are so screwed, because basically people are too stupid to comprehend basic instructions. And how do they fail to see the irony of what they are doing??
Also.. what are the police doing not moving folks along..
It's give carers a clap, not give them the clap.
We're all arguing about whether a 1.5 hour solo bike ride is ok while other parts of the UK can't stop rubbing up against each other.
Can’t believe Westminster Bridge ^^^!
They might as well just stroll to the south end of the bridge and hand themselves in at St Thomas' to save them the ambulance ride. Morons.
Yep, let's all stand too close together in big groups and spread the virus between us to show how we care about helping the NHS.
But, others stupidity does not mean our ignorance.
If we all start acting complacently, we’ll be screwing our family, friends, colleagues, Crikey and Drac to name a few. I’m sure that vid will be doing the rounds and will have an impact, in the meantime set the standard don’t break it.
For people wondering why test kit is so hard to source there’s a really detailed article from a German newspaper that explains the problems with sourcing the materials for the antigen testing:
“These aren’t just any random chemicals that can be mixed together,” Streeck says. “We need enzymes that are produced through biological processes by cells or yeasts. Such complex processes “can’t be ramped up at will on short notice.”
But the biggest bottleneck at the moment isn’t even due to the lack of reagents, with which the genetic material of the coronavirus can be specifically detected, says Hendrick Borucki from the Bioscientia laboratory network. There’s also a shortage of the substances that can be used to break open the virus envelope and isolate the genetic material for the actual test. Other laboratories complain that even plastic pipettes or carrier plates that are calibrated for the analytical instruments are becoming increasingly difficult to obtain.
Also a suggestion for a cunning way to make the limited tests available go further with a kind of quasi-binary search idea:
Instead of individually testing 10 people with limited risk of having contracted the coronavirus, their samples could be “pooled” and analyzed together. When the result is negative, then nine tests have been saved. If the result is positive, individual tests can still be performed.
This is why we are so screwed, because basically people are too stupid to comprehend basic instructions
There are millions of people in London, most of them weren't on that Bridge. Social distancing has reduced the R number and prevented Hospitals being over run. It's working because the vast majority of us *can* follow simple instructions.
we abandoned testing early on
Linky?
Vallance or Whitty (can’t remember which) stated that we were stopping testing in the community, and only doing hospital testing. There’s your gap in the data.
We’re all arguing about whether a 1.5 hour solo bike ride is ok while other parts of the UK can’t stop rubbing up against each other.
Which is why some of the high horsing on some of the virus threads was so stupid - it isn't solo riders doing 1-2 hour rides that are the big problem
UK testing
It's explained quite well in the times article I've linked to about 3 tines
The Dutch data on blood transfusions shows 3% antibody positive and the prevalence survey in healthcare workers shows 6%, that’s a reasonable bound on underlying prevalence, and the UK is a larger NL in terms of population density, so…
• 60M UK residents
• 3 – 6% have likely had the infection: 1.8 – 3.6M
• 103k reported cases and 14K deaths
• Implies that only 3 – 6% of cases are been reported with a case fatality rate of approximately 0.35 – 0.7%
These numbers are eminently sensible (95% of cases and a CFR sub 1%) and now we can extrapolate to mass infection without control measures ...
• Assume ½ to 2/3 will catch it (from the guessed R value of 2-3 widely reported from multiple outbreaks)
• 30M – 40M eventual cases
• 105k – 280k eventual deaths
• 10% are without underlying health issues, so 10 – 28k healthy individuals.
Stay indoors.
it isn’t solo riders doing 1-2 hour rides that are the big problem
Considering the chance of spreading/ catching it outdoors in the open spaces is extremely low for numerous reasons.
Not to mention the fact that Chris Whitty on the government update the other day stated clearly that exercising is a key part of the overall strategy (to likely not allow us to turn into even bigger fatties or kill our families) and put a different strain on the NHS.
But according to some on here we shouldn't step foot out the front door.
Except of course, standing on a bridge with a ton of others is OK.
Our own figures will be revised later as well.
https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1251084697792323584?s=21
But according to some on here we shouldn’t step foot out the front door.
According to who? No one has said that.
Driving out to your favourite riding spot, which will also be other people’s riding spot, risks geographic spread from your home area to their home area or visa versa. That’s before thinking of people who live near your chosen not local to you ride spot. Stay local.
Driving out to your favourite riding spot, which will also be other people’s riding spot, risks geographic spread from your home area to their home area or visa versa.
what about my favorite bridge? bridges are safe right?
Can we take the riding outdoors nonsense back to the relevant thread, and keep this one on track?
we abandoned testing early on
Linky?
UK testing
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/13/who-urges-countries-to-track-and-trace-every-covid-19-case
/blockquote>That article says testing were still occurring:
testing would be limited to patients in hospital with serious breathing problems
Yes, hospital testing only.
That article says testing were still occurring:
yes, obviously we have continued testing in hopsital, hence hancocks daily random number generator
my point was that we abandoned community testing (should have made clearer) as part of track & trace when it was our only way to stay on top of this (have explained this &WHO chastising us for this was pretty well discussed on here)
we only decided to ramp up testing on 22nd March
meaning a route out of lockdown is that much further away than if we'd followed WHO advice
we abandoned testing early on
Linky?
UK testing
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/13/who-urges-countries-to-track-and-trace-every-covid-19-case
/blockquote>That article says testing was still occurring:
yes, obviously we have continued testing in hopsital
Obvious to most, but only obvious to you because I invested my own time in telling you. I'm going to conserve my time by abandoning replying to your posts for a while. I leave it to you to decide if abandoning means 'continue' or 'stop'.
It was clear what he meant. We had a limited number of tests, so abandoned any attempt to test and trace in the community when WHO was saying to do the exact opposite. There were pages about it in this thread at the time. Go back and read it.
OOB are you trying to be obtuse?
Heres Johnson showing some of his opinion of coronavirus from early on
https://twitter.com/StefSimanowitz/status/1250894405323628545
They might as well just stroll to the south end of the bridge and hand themselves in at St Thomas’ to save them the ambulance ride.
People just don't think, if it's not this it's flipping lanterns idea. You just can't get away from Darwin awards.
What are people’s thoughts on the Recovery Trial?
What are people’s thoughts on the Recovery Trial?
I'm all for it - they (we) might get lucky. Seems entirely plausible that something might help.
I'll piss myself laughing if it's cured by a cocktail of bog roll and pasta! 🙂
