jambo beat me to it. The drive for development of either passive vaccination (an antibody administered as prophylaxis) or a conventional vaccine is strong. There is evidence of cross-reactivity with previous SARS-COV-1, there is some evidence that serum might provide the same protection/therapy. I'm optimistic. But the timeframe is about right. I'd also be concerned about the vaccine manufacturing capacity we turn down to make any candidate.
They’ve downgraded definitions of asthma
Got a link for that?
As a 49-year-old asthmatic who’s had his letter of congratulations* from the NHS, my glass-half-empty nature is is overdrive.
I just want you to know that, if I make it but you don't, I'm going to live my life to the fullest to make your sacrifice worthwhile. (Think last scene of Saving Private Ryan)
BBC health correspondent James Gallagher said if a vaccine were to be found, it was not expected that manufacturers would be able to mass produce it until the second half of 2021.
This. So many people's exit strategy is "Let's just assume we have a vaccine". You might as well wish for it to spontaneously go away. (There's the Oxford prof who reckons there's an 80pc chance she'll have a re-purposed existing vaccine by the Autumn - great but how long will it take to manufacture the first 5 billion?)
I fear the hardest miles on this will have been run long before there's a vaccine.
I’d also be concerned about the vaccine manufacturing capacity we turn down to make any candidate.
Hadn't thought of that. 🙁
also what is necessary PPE for nurses (doctors get more)
Have they?
I just want you to know that, if I make it but you don’t, I’m going to live my life to the fullest to make your sacrifice worthwhile.
That's very comforting. 🙂
I’d also be concerned about the vaccine manufacturing capacity we turn down to make any candidate.
How quickly can you create additional capacity? Doesn't have to be for a virus vaccine but it could be for other products to free up space? Stating the obvious - surely we are heading to a virus based economy where activity is strongly focused around dealing with that. Which could be bringing additional manufacturing capability on line.
According to R4 new guidelines have been issued and a drive to exercise is allowed *if* the exercise is longer than the drive. Anyone find a link?
how long will it take to manufacture the first 5 billion?
Just enough to vaccinate health and care workers would make a big difference.
Just got off a work conf call with my EU colleagues...….
Two interesting points came up from my Italian/French work mates.
1. Italy has just increased the time people need to self isolate at home if they have symptoms from 14 days to 28 days. They were staggered when I told them in the UK it is 7 days.
2. Apparently a French aircraft carrier set out to sea last month with no contact with the outside world. All crew fit and healthy on departure. People subsequently developed covid symptoms, however not until they had been at sea for 21 days.
According to R4 new guidelines have been issued and a drive to exercise is allowed *if* the exercise is longer than the drive. Anyone find a link?
https://www.college.police.uk/What-we-do/COVID-19/Pages/Understanding-the-Law.aspx
People subsequently developed covid symptoms, however not until they had been at sea for 21 days.
Just two asymptomatic carriers could result in the first symptoms shown being 3 weeks in, if it takes a week for symptoms to show, and if transmission can be asymptomatic.
[big ifs, but you get the idea, the experience on the ship does not necessarily mean that it can take 21 days for symptoms to show in an individual]
Not even with the ‘in this interview, we talk about the band’s difficult second album, their influences, from Afrika Bambaataa to the E Street band and the best spots for street food in Hamburg’ photo shoot?
Much as I like having a pop at some member's of Team Boris having a love of style over substance. It's a picture that shows people involved and does the social distancing bit - they would be getting lynched for not showing social distancing. They even put crosses on the ground.
Logo, minister, key people, social distancing - job done, even if it is a bit cheesy.
I'm happier the Nightingales exist - it may have been un realistic to think they were going to be up and running now but we have capacity for the future. There may be some debate over the role of spin in giving that impression.
At punter level I'm assuming they only need to do a small number of things very well - virus patients who don't have complications and need some form of oxygen treatment. These would be oxygen, CPAC and Ventilation? If we are going to try some form of easing of restrictions they would seem to be a key element. It may not be possible to staff them to the optimum level now but a couple of months form now - I would have thought that would be achievable.
I think the band photo comment was just a bit of fun. Made me laugh anyway.
How quickly can you create additional capacity?
I don't build bioreactors, but years. You don't just knock up a tank or plastic bag in your lab, for a quick one-off batch of E-coli based single run production for a proof of concept study, before going to the meeja 😉 .
This pre-covid report is for our blockbuster chickenpox vaccine - It's public domain knowledge that we can't manufacture enough of it to meet demand. But making stuff is hard and rightly, highly regulated.
I think the band photo comment was just a bit of fun. Made me laugh anyway.
I thought it was as well
Just because it came via FB doesn’t make it totally unreliable.
I apologise for jumping down your throat @theotherjonv , that was bang out of order.
Please just cite sources, rather than ‘on Facebook’, if you could. Ta.
Thanks Scotroutes, the detail is here:
Likely to be reasonable:
going for a run
or cycle or practicing yoga.
Walking in the countryside
or in cities. Attending an
allotment.
Driving to countryside and
walking (where far more
time is spent walking than
driving).
Exercising more than once
per day
For me that allows a massive increase in what we do.
Just enough to vaccinate health and care workers would make a big difference.
They're in constant contact with CV, by Spring 2021 I suspect most of them will have had it.
Apparently a French aircraft carrier set out to sea last month with no contact with the outside world. All crew fit and healthy on departure. People subsequently developed covid symptoms, however not until they had been at sea for 21 days.
I'm pretty sure Viruses can survive years in freezers. It's entirely possible someone took something out of a freezer with it on. Plus CV symptoms != CV.
I believe that unfortunately the influenza vaccine pipeline can't be switched to coronavirus 'cos corona doesn't replicate in hen eggs.
I don’t build bioreactors, but years. You don’t just knock up a tank or plastic bag in your lab, for a quick one-off batch of E-coli based single run production for a proof of concept study, before going to the meeja 😉 .
And here was I thinking couple of milk bottles and some duct tape and optimism would have it done by the Bank Holiday.
It's more in the legitimate - how fast can you commission a new manufacturing facility? If you have one plant and it does drugs X,Y and Z. Now we want to do new drug A - which will need the lines used for X,Y and Z. How quickly can you make a new plant to provide manufacturing facilities for X,Y and Z freeing up capacity for A.
Sanofi spokeswoman Marion Breyer said “Our goal is to initiate Phase I clinical trials in the second half of 2020 and, subject to regulatory considerations, complete the development required for availability in the US and Europe by the second half of 2021.
“While it is difficult to commit to an exact number of doses, our expectation is to be able to produce hundreds of millions of doses of the vaccine. This of course is dependent upon positive clinical trials and regulatory approvals.”
Surprisingly, most recombinant vaccines can be made in disposable bags rather than stainless steel 20000L bioreactors. So scalability may be easier. You also don't need to make as much protein as you do for antibodies. The use of an adjuvent means you need even less for a dose so you can treat more people.
I thought it was as well
Phew. Was worried 2020 had managed to get fun called off as well.
I’m pretty sure Viruses can survive years in freezers. It’s entirely possible someone took something out of a freezer with it on. Plus CV symptoms != CV.
True indeed. The main point of interest in my post was Italy has decided 14 days of isolation With covid symptoms wasn’t enough, so they are increasing to 28 days (we are 7 days!)
They’re in constant contact with CV, by Spring 2021 I suspect most of them will have had it.
I hope you are wrong, and that the lives of more health care professionals can be saved than that overly pessimistic scenario would suggest.
TBH the flipside of that stat is fairly unsettling, if almost one in 10 Covid deaths had no pre-existing conditions.
I'm sure there will be a load of folks who don't even know they have heart defects, immune deficiencies, there's thought to be people who have little or no defence against sepsis, and of course there is the obesity issue.
For me that allows a massive increase in what we do.
Whereas many will argue it represents no change
TiRed, thanks for the explanation. I was just curious about what the issues are having seen a couple of bits in the news saying capacity would be an issue. Then wondering why additional facilitates cant be constructed.
Whereas many will argue it represents no change
True, it really means my interpretation was wrong.
True, it really means my interpretation was wrong.
A job in Cambridge/Derbyshire Constabulary awaits you.
Then wondering why additional facilitates cant be constructed.
See BREXIT and "BRITISH INSULIN FOR BRITS" arguments in passing. Things are never as simple as they seem - all that pesky red tape (from the UK MHRA of course) 😉
Good news. The usual significant post weekend jump didn't really happen - Looks like we're at (or past) the first peak.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Uhoh!
That’s been ravaging the populace for years
Besides, never done me no harm
...a potential answer to the (surprisingly controversial) question of do asymptomatic people pass on the virus. (I'm not endorsing it, just sharing it.)
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0869-5
Abstract
We report temporal patterns of viral shedding in 94 patients with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 and modeled COVID-19 infectiousness profiles from a separate sample of 77 infector–infectee transmission pairs. We observed the highest viral load in throat swabs at the time of symptom onset, and inferred that infectiousness peaked on or before symptom onset. We estimated that 44% (95% confidence interval, 25–69%) of secondary cases were infected during the index cases’ presymptomatic stage, in settings with substantial household clustering, active case finding and quarantine outside the home. Disease control measures should be adjusted to account for probable substantial presymptomatic transmission.
The news was saying that a French carrier had someone only start showing symptoms after 21 days at sea.
The news was saying that a French carrier had someone only start showing symptoms after 21 days at sea.
Obviously it was an asymptomatic carrier when it set off.
The news was saying that a French carrier had someone only start showing symptoms after 21 days at sea.
Bin dun!
As said fits in with asymptomatic carriers.
Obviously it was an asymptomatic carrier when it set off.
You mean the carrier that carried the initial carrier?
…a potential answer to the (surprisingly controversial) question of do asymptomatic people pass on the virus
@oob, it isn't though. It discusses pre-symptomatic cases, not asymptomatic ones. We still don't really have much idea how many of those that there are or what role they might play in spreading the disease.
As said fits in with asymptomatic carriers.
We wouldnt have any planes for it anyway!!
Maybe Sussex police can now re-open all the local woods car parks they taped up last week?
I saw Hancock was raging against the fact that "everybody wants to know what the future looks like" when asked wtaf the government's plan is here. Beyond "uh, keep everyone locked up and wait for a sign". No suggestion that they have a target or guideline of when might be the right time to take the next step, or what that step might be. Or even a sodding clue, beyond pushing Brexit as some sort of natural corollary.
I'm fairly immune to most of the grade A incompetence and **** of politicians now, but this anger at the media asking for some sort of semblance of a plan really p*ssed me off.
The government are wise not to start waving any flags as to how and when they might change guidelines and loosen up the measures in place to slow the spread. I’m not surprised being constantly asked to is getting to him.
Stick with it and wait.
I saw Hancock was raging against the fact that “everybody wants to know what the future looks like” when asked wtaf the government’s plan is here. Beyond “uh, keep everyone locked up and wait for a sign”. No suggestion that they have a target or guideline of when might be the right time to take the next step, or what that step might be. Or even a sodding clue, beyond pushing Brexit as some sort of natural corollary.
I’m fairly immune to most of the grade A incompetence and ****tery of politicians now, but this anger at the media asking for some sort of semblance of a plan really p*ssed me off.
While I share your frustration, I can see why the government might be reluctant to reveal its strategy.
It’s the modus operandi of the press to get politicians to commit to things then unearth these commitments weeks or months later and castigate them for failing to deliver. This is why it’s difficult to get straight answers out of politicians most of the time.
This scrutiny is mostly totally justified, but in the case of this pandemic, one of my fears is we back them into revealing a strategy that they then feel compelled to stick to through fear of being accused of doing a u-turn even if the latest knowledge might suggest a different approach would be better. Dogmatic thinking definitely must be avoided.
Ultimately things aren’t going back to normal until we have a vaccine. I guess the question is where they are going to set the balance point on the numbers of deaths vs the economy over the next 12-18months until the vaccine is ready.
Can we not get Jacinda Ardern to remotely govern us?
