My fear is that they don't have a strategy to reveal
I’d hope they were open to being far more flexible than to have “a” strategy… start suggesting that any one route out of this is the one they’ll take, before they have the knowledge to be sure of that, could completely mess up the social distancing messaging and result in increased spread now and no chance of following any of their preferred routes out.
I participate in daily research poll on the virus - one of the questions today was about expected duration of restrictions. At the time I did the survey nearly 70% were expecting at least a few months.
Considering the support (yes, still flawed in terms of scope and delivery) announced by the government to try and keep people in their jobs, then that expectation seems sound.
Hancock looks like someone who's cracking up. The pressure must be enormous and he looks like someone promoted way above their competency.
Maybe Sussex police can now re-open all the local woods car parks they taped up last week?
Must be tough for all the local doggers.
Must be tough for all the local doggers.
local woods at woburn are still open & there was a discarded pair of ladies undies in the car park yesterday,
I think some doggers may not be sticking to the rules
Another three weeks of lockdown.
To be expected, tbh.
Aye, Priti Patel has just tweeted that the next review will be on the 37th of Junember
My fear is that they don’t have a strategy to reveal
Any strategy MUST be reliant on testing capability. And how is that going? Now you can see why Hancock is looking a bit stressed. Drive-by swabbing for key healthcare workers is not a UK population-wide policy for getting people back to work and the economy back up and running.
100k tests/day is still TWO YEARS to test the nation. And that's a conflagration of viral load testing (do I HAVE it now) and antibody testing (have I HAD it in the past) tests. When capacity for mass testing is up to scale, I expect we'll see movement, not before.
Correct call to continue the lockdown, no other option really right now.
I still think the restrictions will carry on until end of June or mid July then be slowly raised with the aim to have most of normal life back in time for the September school term. Seems to fit the timelines of other countries and it's what the financial assistance packages seem to cover too. My workplace seems to think along similar lines too.
Any strategy MUST be reliant on testing capability.
Not so long since Jenny Harries was telling us that testing isn't useful. What's that about being guided by the science?
My source is no more than the parent of my daughter's friend, but he is pretty far from a loony (IMHO) and his past record or advice so far on matters of IT / IT security, in which he works, have been pretty good.
OK, so ignoring the (possibly justified) criticism of 'unnamed FB source' etc. which I totally get the question remains, is this something to be concerned about?
Good point about the testing - he'll be sh*tting bricks about the 100k target for testing by the end of this month.
But as family member pointed out, for as long as it sounds like "I'm the teacher, you're the children, now do what I tell you and stop asking why", compliance and support from the public will continue to dissipate. Hence having to ramp up police enforcement powers, I suppose.
The likes of easyjet selling cut price seats for flights in June doesn't help, raises the public's expectations that things will be somehow back to normal when in reality they will be anything but
The thing about journalists banging on and on about "what's the exit strategy and when will you implement it?" is that it feeds the frustration. They've been asking the same questions for over a week, and are somehow managing to feed the the cod-theorists' and FB virologists' narrative that they aren't getting the answer they want because the govt is incompetent. The lockdown needs to continue. We need to accept that as a premise. Our "experts" have the opportunity to see what happens when other countries start to loosen the lockdown. In the meantime the govt is repeating the "the lockdown needs to stay in place, do as you're told and we might make it out the other side."
As for "teacher-pupil" relationship and compliance, perhaps it takes a bit more "do as you're told and more of our community/society will survive."
My guess is that as soon as any news or date of a lockdown relaxation is mentioned, every single eejit out there will find reasons to think they no longer need to comply, and we'll get the surge that the lockdown has worked so hard to contain.
Surely the message is "we're doing the right thing, and as a society we need to find the resolve to keep going."
I was just reading about the aviation industry
It’s looking proper ****** to be honest and EasyJet’s moves appear to be desperation as much as anything.
cod-theorists
Seems a bit fishy
The thing about journalists banging on and on about “what’s the exit strategy and when will you implement it?” is that it feeds the frustration. They’ve been asking the same questions for over a week, and are somehow managing to feed the the cod-theorists’ and FB virologists’ narrative that they aren’t getting the answer they want because the govt is incompetent. The lockdown needs to continue. We need to accept that as a premise. Our “experts” have the opportunity to see what happens when other countries start to loosen the lockdown. In the meantime the govt is repeating the “the lockdown needs to stay in place, do as you’re told and we might make it out the other side.”
Go and look at how Merkel is able to explain things rationally and clearly
theres no reason (other than their own stupidity) that they cant do the same
the alternative is Matt hancock lying at every single press conference
with no opposition to scrutinize the government we entered lockdown too late & more people died than might have as a result
Ask a scientist or a mathematician, as I have done, what those eleven fateful days in March cost us.
why are people so relaxed about letting the government repeat the same mistakes when it comes to exiting lockdown?
If theres no end in sight & the government dont explain honestly what they are doing and how they plan to make things better then people will start ignoring things
BBC publishing the guidelines issued to the police saying that you can drive into the countryside for a walk as long as the walk is longer than the drive is going to open a whole can of worms
BBC publishing the guidelines issued to the police saying that you can drive into the countryside for a walk as long as the walk is longer than the drive is going to open a whole can of worms
So I can drive to Wales for a days biking, but ride has to be longer than the 4 hr round trip it takes me to get there? Sweet !
I drove to Wales and back for my one 12hr TT last year. Good times 🙂
a whole can of worms
Especially where countryside is less than half an hour drive from multiple large towns and cities.
My guess is that as soon as any news or date of a lockdown relaxation is mentioned, every single eejit out there will find reasons to think they no longer need to comply, and we’ll get the surge that the lockdown has worked so hard to contain.
That’s what I tried to say, but you made it much clearer/simpler.
People in the media can pontificate about exit strategies all they want, but the government doing likewise could send out messages that change behaviour and prevent or delay those exit strategies from being used. It’s also why the opposition can push for details knowing that the government can only sound vague when responding (and why they can’t push forward any strategy of their own at this point).
Trouble with discussing any form of exit strategy now is a weakening of the current situation. My guess is they'll start to relax the lockdown on the 11th of May, after the bank holiday, if they do it before everyone will rush out. I still think the schools will go back in early June after half term. By that point people back in work will be having a nightmare with child care, plus I think giving most kids 5 months will be detrimental to their education (remember even missing a few days for a term time holiday destroys a child's chances according to the DoE).
We're only 3 weeks in and had Easter as a distraction, the population will be getting really restless by mid May. Couple that with other countries reducing restrictions (not withstanding we are behind them) and pressure grow to get back closer to normal sooner.
I still think the schools will go back in early June
Which, for Scotland, would be for 3 or 4 weeks before the term ends. I can't see that happening. More likely they'll not go back until mid-August.
We were told 4 weeks ago that the lockdown would last 12 or 13 weeks. I see no reason that advice should change.
remember even missing a few days for a term time holiday destroys a child’s chances according to the DoE).
That is presuming other kids are at school, all of them will be in the same boat. Well those with better educated and richer parents will have extended there lead.
So, this new three weeks, does it start from today, or is it backdated to Monday which was the original 3 week lockdown? Or is the three weeks just when they'll announce the new announcement.
This may seem a bit petty, but things that need cancelling need actual dates for insurance and Ts&Cs.
@oob, it isn’t though. It discusses pre-symptomatic cases, not asymptomatic ones.
Thanks. I hadn't appreciated the distinction. The explains how the report can apparently contradict the WHO and both be correct.
Go and look at how Merkel is able to explain things rationally and clearly
*Everything* she said was caveated with "this could completely change at any time". (I'm paraphrasing).
Trouble with discussing any form of exit strategy now is a weakening of the current situation.
This.
My guess is that as soon as any news or date of a lockdown relaxation is mentioned, every single eejit out there will find reasons to think they no longer need to comply, and we’ll get the surge that the lockdown has worked so hard to contain.
This.
A Labour guy was on LBC just now (I thought they said health but it didn't sound like Ashworth). He was asked a straightforward question about which industry should be released from lockdown first. He said it would be wrong to decide that now, it would be wiser to wait and be guided by the science. Quite right. ...and the Government should do the same.
Mindlessly publishing an exit plan *Now* before we'd seen how other countries get on, what new developments in treatment and testing come up would be wrong. There are countless potential exit plans. To pick one now would be mental. No other country has committed to any kind of exit plan.
There are dozens of reasons not to commit to an exit plan at this early stage in a massively fluid situation. I can't think of any benefit to publishing a plan.
Maybe Sussex police can now re-open all the local woods car parks they taped up last week?
please no!
I emerged into dog shit car park last night expecting the usual olfactory assault. To my surprise the car park was borderline pleasant. It was then I noticed the line of security red and white tape. Who knows which public place the ‘professional’ dog walkers are taking their dozen dogs to shit on these days. I fear for the parks of Brighton. 😣
No other country has committed to any kind of exit plan.
USA. All though it’s not much of a plan, and the states are trying to resist what the big man is blurting on about.
There are dozens of reasons not to commit to an exit plan at this early stage in a massively fluid situation. I can’t think of any benefit to publishing a plan.
This.
And I fear key journalists and the leader of the opposition know this, and are trying to gain from it to look to be “asking the tough questions”. Tastes nasty to me.
Also just read the police guidelines rathe than the summary on the news sites, it really does allow for people to totally take the piss doesn't it? I could drive for 45 mins to the edge of the Brecon Beacons, go for a 4-5 hour ride then drive back and be in accordance with what they say. I won't as it would mean I cover a huge swathe of South Wales in a day, touching gates etc and the National Park Authority say it's all closed anyway but I can see how people are going to think that way and do stuff like that. Don't forget we've got another 2 bank holidays on the way.
So I can drive to Wales for a days biking, but ride has to be longer than the 4 hr round trip it takes me to get there? Sweet !
I drove to Wales and back for my one 12hr TT last year. Good times 🙂
I could drive for 45 mins to the edge of the Brecon Beacons, go for a 4-5 hour ride then drive back
IANAL but all three fail the "reasonable excuse" threshold IMHO.
Also social distancing has to be maintained. So 20,000 people can't all hit the same carpark 20 minutes out of town.
Good luck with that.
one of my fears is we back them into revealing a strategy that they then feel compelled to stick to through fear of being accused of doing a u-turn even if the latest knowledge might suggest a different approach would be better. Dogmatic thinking definitely must be avoided.
At one end you have the dogmatic thinking, and at the other you have u-turns / denial they ever agreed to do something (current example is Hancocks test kits)
What is wrong with saying 'we've got some new information and we're revising our plan or decision on that basis' - then any criticism of a u-turn is swiftly squashed because who in their right mind wants to keep doing the wrong thing now it's clear it's the wrong thing.
All these conflicting and varied guidance speaks about poor leadership at the top. It's very telling.
matt_outandabout
Subscriber
On a personal note, my sister and family just touched down at Heathrow and off to collect a hire minibus…👍
poopscoop – as a family with very vulnerable person, we’ve been discussing the whole ‘what’s the exit from lockdown?’ question.
I think we’re about to see another month of strict lockdown.
But after that I do get the feeling they are going to keep vulnerable (and thier closest) contained at home, and start encouraging groups back to work, school etc. Balancing Covid deaths against stalled economy deaths… So, who’s up for taking one for the team?
Glad you're family are back in the UK matey!
Yeah, I don't see me going out much at all till next year. In fact less plywood in lock down will make me going out even more dicey a far as catching it and passing it on to mum.
On top of that....My partner doesn't live with me and she also works in the NHS. No idea how that's going to work now.
I don't see any other way around the cocooning method till a vaccine so I'm not going to be the only one in this situation by a long chalk. Going to impact your family from the sounds old it too mate.
Also social distancing has to be maintained. So 20,000 people can’t all hit the same carpark 20 minutes out of town.
As from the other thread on this - 20million people live within one hour of the Peak District.
Then we have the fun of is it from the door or the boundary of the village / town / suburb / city.
I think it's deeply unhelpful - guess we just have to watch the numbers to see if it results in an upswing. My completely unscientific road observations - there are more private cars moving about round here.
IANAL but all three fail the “reasonable excuse” threshold IMHO.
I’d agree. I have only been outside the house twice in the past three weeks and only then for very short walks. I thought it was also 1hr a day so that’s a 30 min drive, no?
There is no 1 hr limit.
My completely unscientific road observations – there are more private cars moving about round here.
Me too. I use the same road at the same time every other day to buy milk. In normal times it's gridlocked 50cars back from the junction. Since lockdown it's been deserted - I ride down the middle of the road at rush hour.
Today there was a 7 car queue and oncoming traffic.
Might be fluke.
This guidance should never have been made public - too many people will push the boundaries.
There is no 1 hr limit
Ah ok. I’ve been ill for the entire lockdown. So it’s been academic.
There’s hardly any cars on the road up here bank holiday weekend I drove 35 miles and seen less than a dozen cars, it would normally be rammed with people towing a box on wheels.
I’ve just watched the video of one of my BA colleagues in Shanghai.
A normal passenger 777, packed full of PPE, both in the cabin & hold. Each seat has a box of 2000 masks strapped to it. Plus boxes in every overhead locker, wardrobe and galley stowage.
They aren’t allowed to stop in China, so 7 pilots are flying it there and back, with 2 hours turnaround in Shanghai.
We are sending one every day, and I know Virgin are doing similar.
Cool!
