Here you are so you can see he's been taking you for a ride with his numerology
well you could if the image button worked.
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Let's do Spain too shall we?
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How did that turn out?
Italy, anyone?
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Need I go on?
90% of statistics are made up you know? 😀
Yes and it’s not at all unusual across Europe. There seem to be quite a few ministers who have practical experience relevant to their current political posts. Here we seem to parachute ministers in and out of different posts with scant regard for their suitability (or otherwise).
Of course that may simply say something about the sort of people who want to engage with British politics.
Our media treat politicians like scum and MPs get paid about the same as middle managers.
It's not rocket science. If you want good people pay them the going rate and treat them with respect.
They’re a PR stunt aren’t they? No staff, no equipment and no patients.
post the goodness of fit plots? 😉 The model is for the grey and red curves on the right axis, not the yellow and olive incidence on the left axis. For 50 countries modelled simultaneously, not any one country selected as a best fit.
Tired, you’re a fraud.
Thank you for reading my manuscript. I'll see how the peer review goes.
Doctors trying to transfer covid patients to Nightingale London have been told that they have to supply staff to treat them as there arent enough there
https://twitter.com/tompeck/status/1250719890899718146
Around 25,000 doctors, nurses and support staff will work at the location once it is fully operational.
I wonder when it will actually be fully operational then.
Presumably after the 25000 doctors nurses and support staff have been hired.
It’s not rocket science. If you want good people pay them the going rate and treat them with respect.
If only our politicians applied the same level of respect.
‘Hospital says don’t send us any patients we can’t accept just now.’
That happens week in week out across the country as mentioned they’re still trying arrange the staff. Meanwhile the Washington one may not be needed if the number of seriously ill continue to fall. It’s almost as if these were built for worst case scenario rather than saying “it’ll be ‘reet”.
they’re still trying arrange the staff.
How can staff actually be arranged? I mean now that "Johnson" has gone home^H^H^H^H to Chequers there'll be a bunch of staff kicking their heels, but apart from that?
How can staff actually be arranged?
By people applying and by moving staff from elsewhere. My Sister in law has been told she’ll be working some shifts at nightingale hospital.
https://www.nhsprofessionals.nhs.uk/Nightingale
Thank you for reading my manuscript. I’ll see how the peer review goes.
Reviewer 2...
Some analysis of the ONS data for England shows that those under 44 look to have no extra deaths, compared with the first 12 weeks of 2020. C19 is impacting those over 44, with the oldest being the most impacted.
Some analysis of the National Records of Scotland data shows a similar trend. What is interesting is that they break out the C19 deaths in hospitals, care home etc.
As I understand the reporting by the government are only of hospital deaths from C19. My analysis suggests that the real death rates is 111% higher than that...
How can staff actually be arranged? I mean now that “Johnson” has gone home^H^H^H^H to Chequers there’ll be a bunch of staff kicking their heels, but apart from that?
The Bagpus theory - it's a radical one. I can see it working, they're not really hospitals just giant mouse organs. Just keeping the rodent theme going for the day.
compared with the first 12 weeks of 2020
Not quite the right comparator though, due to seasonal viral pneumonia deaths. A better comparison is the week-matched averages from historic data. They published some of that too this week, but the headlines were predictably "largest number of deaths in history this week...". in a larger population, you'd get more deaths anyway, of course.
COVID-19 is definitely a serious disease in those who are older. But 1/10 deaths are in people with no previous underlying medical conditions. The comparison with influenza (which impacts the younger much harder) is of interest here.
fill your boots
My FB feed keeps popping up…
…with shit? Don’t spread it here, please.
I'm not posting shit, I'm asking a question about something I don't understand based on something I heard (a good source albeit via FB) to a community who may know more about it than me. I don't get the aggression?
So there may not be a link between the contract tracking app and CA, but there does seem to be a link between data mining of patient info and backers of CA
IANAE IN THIS.... so I'll ask again; is this something to be worried about?
In some positive news, a couple of Nurse friends in our local hospital have been told they can take leave. I don’t work there but they tell us that with the cancellation of many operations and the general ‘stay away’ message it’s largely empty.
I can see a near universal compliance with the distancing advice in my neighbourhood, shops and even on the South Downs.
There is good news out there.
I have done an seasonal adjust based on the previous 5 years of deaths. It shows we should have seen a drop in the number of deaths. Adjusting for this makes the total numbers worse.
C19 is impacting those over 44, with the oldest being the most impacted.
finger crossed for a vaccine before july then.
jam bo (aged 43 & 3/4)
Please but not surprised that the NIghtingale "hospital" is basically not needed.
If you have enough staff to staff 100 beds and you build 1000 extra beds, you still only have enough staff to man 100 beds.
To say nothing of PPE, ventilators etc...
Plenty of badges though...
Scotland seasonally adjusted...
My FB feed keeps popping up with a couple of reasonably well respected sources suggesting that the brains behind the contact tracking app are the same as behind Cambridge Analytica.
I don’t get the aggression?
Which “app”? Start with that and we can tell you exactly who is involved.
“I heard something on Facebook about apps and bad people” does indeed raise the hackles, because I hear so much fear mongering nonsense start as “heard on Facebook” followed by the vaguest of “don’t trust their efforts to control the spread” hand waving.
Look, I'm not particularly down on the Nightingale hospitals, it's a good idea as long as there is an acknowledgement (from the government) that a hospital is more than beds and Dyson Lungblades.
Rather them empty than the charnel houses they could have been if the lockdown didn't work.
And if we can keep on this trend of empty emergency facilities, I would rather see the resources being quickly redirected to build capacity to handle Covid patients at local hospitals and support them in the community - this is going to be with us for a while.
“I heard something on Facebook about apps and bad people”
That not what I said though - I said a reliable source albeit via Facebook.
Which “app”?
Might not be the App, that might be my mistake, the Guardian article has more on it.
In the same way as we can ask on here for a doctor, or dentist, or mechanic, or floor fitters advice, I'm asking a group with a very wide set of skills about something I don't know. That's all. I have no opinion at this point other than I heard it from a (generally trustworthy) friend and I'm interested in getting some more views. Just because it came via FB doesn't make it totally unreliable.
And what are the “reliable sources”?
One man’s reliable source is another man’s 5G drugs in the water nutter.
Lots of “stuff on Facebook” about how contact tracing “apps” are some big conspiracy to be used against us.
Lot's of quality facts here but this stood out:
"Of the deaths involving COVID-19 that occurred in March 2020, there was at least one pre-existing condition in 91% of cases."
And? Sorting the wheat from the chaff? Or the weak and vulnerable losing their lives? I take no consolation in the fact that most people being killed by this virus have an underlying health condition.
Might not be the App, that might be my mistake, the Guardian article has more on it.
I think this is Kelvin’s point. Posting “I’ve heard bad things about the app being rung by a unethical company” then not giving any context just helps stir unnecessary fear your intentions were well meant but poorly worded.
And if we can keep on this trend of empty emergency facilities, I would rather see the resources being quickly redirected to build capacity to handle Covid patients at local hospitals and support them in the community
Absolutely long term is needed too but these were not publicity stunt they had to prepare for the worst.
I’m not posting shit, I’m asking a question about something I don’t understand based on something I heard (a good source albeit via FB) to a community who may know more about it than me. I don’t get the aggression?
Agree. Even the most bland technical questions prompt morons to leap up the ladder of inference to create some kind of squabble.
Never reply to trolls, you won't regret it.
Lot’s of good facts here but this stood out:
TBH the flipside of that stat is fairly unsettling, if almost one in 10 Covid deaths had no pre-existing conditions.
Never reply to trolls, you won’t regret it.
Was that was aimed at me? If so, I suppose hearing about the “5G” and “apps being introduced to control us” conspiracy theory memes, from friends and family I thought wise enough to teat “sources on Facebook” more cautiously, has made me very snappy when those memes pop up outside that sewer of fake news for clicks.
no pre-existing conditions
Except age 😉 they could have broken it down by age as well as existing condition.
But 1/10 of those who have died - possibly 0.1 - 0.3% of all cases. Scaling that up, if the population is 60mn and 1/2 to 2/3 eventually catch it (not unreasonable 30-40mn) then total deaths might be 30,000 to 120,000 deaths, of which 3-12K would be of otherwise healthy individuals.
I'm still of the view that the big centre to cope with c19 is the plan - get hospitals back to doing what they do and isolate c19 patients elsewhere. You can transfer some staff and resources, enough that would do c19, but just elsewhere to protect others.
TBH the flipside of that stat is fairly unsettling, if almost one in 10 Covid deaths had no pre-existing conditions.
of which 3-12K would be of otherwise healthy individuals
Agree with both, but since I have no pre-exiting conditions I still prefer it that way round!
The media's gone someway into getting me thinking every 45yo male in the country is doomed! 🙂
Of course, coronavirus might expose an unknown pre-existing condition! 🙂
Except age
Of course 🙂
The media’s gone someway into getting me thinking every 45yo male in the country is doomed!
As a 49-year-old asthmatic who's had his letter of congratulations* from the NHS, my glass-half-empty nature is is overdrive.
*congratulations, you should stay in the house for three months. I have had a sensible conversation with the GP who has downgraded my rating to merely a bit shit, rather than very shit.
There is absolutely no guarantee that a vaccine can be developed and think in the short to medium term we will have to find other ways of living with covid 19,I do think a large percentage of the population are a bit like Trump and think that one day it will just be gone.
This from the BBC health correspondent
BBC health correspondent James Gallagher said if a vaccine were to be found, it was not expected that manufacturers would be able to mass produce it until the second half of 2021.
"Remember, there are four coronaviruses that already circulate in human beings. They cause the common cold, and we don't have vaccines for any of them," he said.
Remember, there are four coronaviruses that already circulate in human beings. They cause the common cold, and we don’t have vaccines for any of them,” he said.
missing the part where the common cold doesn't kill anyone* and thus the drive for developing a vaccine is pretty low...
*probably?
They've downgraded definitions of asthma and also what is necessary PPE for nurses (doctors get more). It seems that scientific objectivity has given way to political expediency.
these were not publicity stunt
Not even with the 'in this interview, we talk about the band's difficult second album, their influences, from Afrika Bambaataa to the E Street band and the best spots for street food in Hamburg' photo shoot?
