Excllent & concise explanations from Merkel here
https://twitter.com/BenjAlvarez1/status/1250563198081740800?s=19
Why oh why can't our own politicians explain the situation so well?
(Also scary point that Germany healthcare system has far greater no. of beds than ours so ours would be overwhelmed sooner)
4 on the front 5 on the back, according to google.
Oh! I thought it was the other way around.
Anyway that’s enough about Rattus Rattus.
(Also scary point that Germany healthcare system has far greater no. of beds than ours so ours would be overwhelmed sooner)
How do we compare now after all the mitigation with the private and Nightingale hospitals? I thought they were saying that some of the Nightingales may now not be needed?
Not sure, the nightingales still mostly lack ITU & ventilator capacity that are crucial.
Other worry is that many deaths recorded at home now, covid & other, there's a backlog of sick people somewhere, waiting to fill up beds
The ramping up has been very impressive. I wouldn’t want my loved ones to have to be in one of those temporary giant wards though, having some spare capacity in real hospitals would be preferable (and perhaps something we should plan/pay for in future).
Not sure, the nightingales still mostly lack ITU & ventilator capacity that are crucial.
Oh, OK. Thought you had the numbers (hence the 'scary' statement)
Excllent & concise explanations from Merkel here
Yeah, but do Germany have a badge?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-52304993
Mercans will be Mercans. What a bunch of imbeciles in that video.
it comes across as some dastardly machiavellian plan, ministers run around like headless chickens waiting for blowjo to return from the dead to lead us all to the free sunny uplands. The reality is they are just clueless cowards.
What a bunch of imbeciles lot of bad hair in that video.
😕
In terms of coming out of restrictions the UK is at an advantage because we're behind several other countries. We can see what effect the lifting has elsewhere and tailor our approach accordingly.
The worrying thing for me is that I don’t think the government have a plan for the eventual easing of restrictions
I'm reassured that no ministers are shooting from the hip in a Trump stylee and sending potentially incorrect messages
Let's see how other countries get on with their relaxation and see what we can learn. We have at least 3-6 more weeks to go, data from other countries should show by then what their gradual relaxation has created, and whether we can cope with the same
Why oh why can’t our own politicians explain the situation so well?
Because even for the average Brit it’s still too complicated - see panic buying toilet paper for proof for how stupid people can be.
In terms of coming out of restrictions the UK is at an advantage because we’re behind several other countries. We can see what effect the lifting has elsewhere and tailor our approach accordingly.
I'm particularly reassured by the fine job the government did of that on the way into this mess.
In terms of coming out of restrictions the UK is at an advantage because we’re behind several other countries. We can
seeignore what effect the lifting has elsewhere andtailorcock up our approach accordingly.
Based on previous behaviour, but I remain as ever (hopelessly?) optimistic that a grown up might step in soon.
I’m particularly reassured by the fine job the government did of that on the way into this mess.
Well, without the apparent acceptance by Italians and Spaniards, there is no way we would have entered into social distancing at all. Cabinet thought there was no way we'd buy it. Perhaps if they could have explained the situation clearly then we might have bought an extra week or more.
I'm out of the loop, but that "care" badge - is it real?
Last point Mutti has a PhD in Quantum Chemistry, she was a jobbing research Scientist before becoming a politician, she gets complexity and has an analytical mind. That's more intellectual horsepower than the entire UK front bench.
Another three weeks of lock-down expected. Not that suprising.
Coronavirus: Three-week lockdown extension set to be approved
Not sure, the nightingales still mostly lack ITU & ventilator capacity that are crucial.
Not to mention nurses.
Because even for the average Brit it’s still too complicated – see panic buying toilet paper for proof for how stupid people can be.
There was no panic buying of toilet paper across Europe? Just in the UK?
Because even for the average Brit it’s still too complicated – see panic buying toilet paper for proof for how stupid people can be.
Normal Brits aren't any more stupid or clever than anyone else. Not sure why some posters constantly want to take digs at the British public.
And yes panic buying toulet paper was pretty universal, even in Germany.
https://qz.com/1811000/hamsterkauf-germans-austrians-panic-buying-due-to-coronavirus/
There was no panic buying of toilet paper across Europe? Just in the UK?
I seem to recall there was panic buying of various things in different countries. The only one that seems to have stuck in my mind was Americans panic buying bullets
I've always thought the nightingale hospitals are for separating Covid patients away from the 'regular' hospitals, so that they can return to doing what they 'normally' do. All part of an isolation / lockdown strategy over the next year or so.
Cabinet thought there was no way we’d buy it.
And we won't when people start seeing their jobs disappear once they realise that the furlough scheme and other support they're offering to business is not working. Most people haven't been economically impacted yet (freelancers have taken the brunt so far) so the economics haven't hit home. Once they do there'll be massive pressure to reopen and damn the consequences.
bought an extra week or more
The objective was to prevent the NHS getting overwhelmed with CV cases and the NHS wasn't overwhelmed - so doesn't that mean we did go in to lockdown at roughly the right time?
If we went in a week late in the first wave by some other criteria [1] can't we totally compensate for that by going into the second wave a week later?
[1] Not the "overwhelming" criteria.
Normal Brits aren’t any more stupid or clever than anyone else
We’ll have to agree to disagree - see a Tory majority for proof.
I’m out of the loop, but that “care” badge – is it real?
They were actually introduced last June, apparently. You couldn't make it up. Well, Matt Hancock did, but there you go:
http://www.careengland.org.uk/news/launch-care-badge#
I'm looking forward to the 'Got Covid-19 Done' commemorative teatowel personally.
We’ll have to agree to disagree – see a Tory majority for proof.
So you are no longer using panic buying of toilet paper to provide evidence of the stupidity of a nation?
That's a shame as the first place in the world to experience panic buying of toilet paper due to the COVID-19 pandemic was Hong Kong. I was hoping that I could point out just how stupid Chinese people are.
I seem to recall there was panic buying of various things in different countries. The only one that seems to have stuck in my mind was Americans panic buying bullets
I panic bought a 25kg sack of Pale Ale malt. But I did want to make beer, so I am not sure that counts.
Also, I half-seriously recommended my mates in the US actually bought shotguns. They are both Brits working out there and are both pretty convinced that there will be rioting if the lockdown goes on for much longer.
Not sure why it's any kind of "news" that the lockdown is extended - most countries have had 9-10 weeks at least, were people really that naive?
Tired, the calibrated SEIR model is giving a valid estimate of our current uncertainty, which is still a little high, due to the fact that the policy changes on the 23rd March have not yet fully fed through into deaths (and I'm assuming no other useful data eg on hospital admissions). As of yesterday, my estimate of R was 0.5±0.2 (note that range is only 1SD). So virtually certain to be less than 1 but still a wide range. I have built a reasonably successful scientific career on developing and applying methods for model-based forecasting (in weather and climate, primarily) and don't need a lesson on linear regression, but thanks anyway.
Your time series analysis on the other hand is drawing on random lines that simply don't validate. If the data lie outside of your predicted intervals basically all of the time, what are they supposed to be for?
Not sure why it’s any kind of “news” that the lockdown is extended – most countries have had 9-10 weeks at least, were people really that naive?
...and the UK extended MOTs into the winter.
the NHS wasn’t overwhelmed
Debatable, and people are now dying at home as they are too scared to go to hospital.
I’ve always thought the nightingale hospitals are for separating Covid patients away from the ‘regular’ hospitals
They're a PR stunt aren't they? No staff, no equipment and no patients.
Also, I half-seriously recommended my mates in the US actually bought shotguns. They are both Brits working out there and are both pretty convinced that there will be rioting if the lockdown goes on for much longer.
Three weeks is optimistic in my opinion. When will you send vulnerable children back to school? That's about 10% of them. Summer half-term was my original prediction, and then it's "only half a term to summer anyway". No exams, so what will really be accomplished in that half-term? Getting the economy going seems to rest on whether someone can look after our children. I find that somewhat depressing to be honest.
I think a clearer explanation of the gravity of the situation, an honest appraisal of the failings in the healthcare system (absence of testing capacity primarily), and a reasoned argument about cost would have helped foster support. I don't expect politicians to have the answers. I expect them to listen to people who may. But I do expect them to explain clearly the decision-making process.
If Trump hears clotting is an issue, he’ll be urging everyone to try Warfarin! In that creepy voice
Will he also do that weird "slit eye" face he does when he says Chinaaah ?
No exams, so what will really be accomplished in that half-term? Getting the economy going seems to rest on whether someone can look after our children. I find that somewhat depressing to be honest.
Back to the one-earner-per-household model then?
My kids are missing school. They want to see their mates and teachers. I imagine lots of others are just the same. Sending kids back to school gets a whole lot of kids a whole lot more happy. Perhaps not entirely just about the economy.
If the data lie outside of your predicted intervals basically all of the time, what are they supposed to be for?
Cumulative deaths and cases fall inside tight prediction bounds for both models - which is what I predict. So for the purposes of forecasting deaths by a given date the model is very accurate. Individual daily incidence is an extremely noisy measure, but one the media are fixated on (France has huge variation due to vagaries of reporting). Prediction of the cumulative course of the epidemic is what matters. My week-on-week total cases and deaths have not been outside prediction intervals so far. At the moment the second derivative of that curve is approximately zero for cases - so we are at the inflection.
From a week ago - with the cumulative cases and deaths (which are modelled), And this is the UK prediction conditional on describing the other 49 countries in the dataset.
The near-casting time-series model also describes the cumulative data, to make forward predictions of only 7-days. When the two methodologies converge, then it is possible to call the longer term extrapolation (epidemic size) - model selection SEIR, SIS, Gompertz, logistic,.... The tightness of the prediction intervals on the plots come from describing the population of 50 epidemics simultaneously. Individual countries may have significant error, but the global picture informs on the parameters and overall precision.
re 'merican & their guns, this tweet made me chuckle
https://twitter.com/socialistdogmom/status/1250491190899871747
&
I think a clearer explanation of the gravity of the situation, an honest appraisal of the failings in the healthcare system (absence of testing capacity primarily), and a reasoned argument about cost would have helped foster support. I don’t expect politicians to have the answers. I expect them to listen to people who may. But I do expect them to explain clearly the decision-making process.
+1
Can we just stop with the 'panic buying' nonsense as if it somehow shows UK citizens are idiots. Some UK citizens are idiots and there were some who simply grabbed what ever looked like it was running out on the shelves.
The vast majority heard the news or worked it out for themselves and thought hey ho, we are being asked to stay home and not go out as much - that means I should probably shop less than once every 2 days. Once a week, or even once a fortnight seems sensible. So instead of buying 1 of everything, I will buy 3 or 4. I usually buy a pack of 9 toilet rolls for a family of 5 and go back for more when down to the last 2 or 3 rolls. So I bought 2 packs. I usually buy a bag of pasta once a week so I bought 3 (1 for each week and 1 as a spare in case things got a bit difficult) and so on.
It doesn't take a genius to work out that a whole nation doing this and not going out for pub meals etc is going to deplete the shelves pretty quickly due to the ridiculous way supermarkets use 4 bays for coffee, several walls of booze and only one bay for pasta and one shelf for flour(my waitrose as an example).
The media likes a good panic however and so it manufactured one. Its just one more example along with the demonisation of those driving to beauty spots, going for cycle rides etc when there had been absolutely no coherent messaging from those purportedly in charge of this fiasco, just a series of bumbling 'perhaps you might just refrain froms....
There are clearly individuals who have openly flouted the various obvious restrictions that have grudgingly been brought in but for the media and others to paint us as a nation of idiots when we are being shown absolutely no leadership is disingenuous and untrue.
I’m looking forward to the ‘Got Covid-19 Done’ commemorative teatowel personally.
Surely a 'Got Covid?' mug would be better
(a) easier to share
(b) lives longer on hard surfaces
Last point Mutti has a PhD in Quantum Chemistry, she was a jobbing research Scientist before becoming a politician, she gets complexity and has an analytical mind. That’s more intellectual horsepower than the entire UK front bench.
Yes and it's not at all unusual across Europe. There seem to be quite a few ministers who have practical experience relevant to their current political posts. Here we seem to parachute ministers in and out of different posts with scant regard for their suitability (or otherwise).
Of course that may simply say something about the sort of people who want to engage with British politics.
well said wnston
"My week-on-week total cases and deaths have not been outside prediction intervals so far."
Tired, you're a fraud.
You posted a forecast made on the 8th April, which predicted:
UK: 7 day total 16836 (15032,18869)
What is the 7 day total for the 9-15 April inclusive?
The next review after todays is going to be a challenging one in terms of message - coming on the eve of the VE Day bank holiday. Get it wrong and suddenly a lot of people could be out and about.
