https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Disseminated_intravascular_coagulation
Sadly the clotting is one consequence of the inflammatory response. It leads to multiple organ failure.
Losing your Mum, in your first few days of life:
https://www.gofundme.com/f/our-beloved-marymo-yesu-maame
So sad, but at least the babe survived.
If that clotting is an issue, I feel less worried about my FiL (71, T2Diabetic, takes warfarin after a heart valve replacement 10 yrs ago.)
27 European countries likely to adopt Apple/Google contact tracing API
So does that mean in the UK we will therefore decide to develop our own ideologically superior, but not yet even begun, system?
Surely not? 🤬🤯
If Trump hears clotting is an issue, he’ll be urging everyone to try Warfarin! In that creepy voice
Well going on past form government will avoid having anything to do with it, because Brexit etc
Then after a while do a u-turn and realise that they really ought to be following WHO advice
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/apr/15/uk-government-coronavirus-science-who-advice
Cummings was against digital tracing
https://www.wired.co.uk/article/dominic-cummings-coronavirus-big-tech
wonder if he will still be objecting now?
Any country can adopt it. I like the fact the data is kept on your phone ‘till you want to contribute it. A good balance of using big data and maintaining civil liberties as much as possible. You’d hope that we use it, we can’t just opt out of everything that our neighbours can agree on, just for political point scoring.
[edit: must read links from Kimbers there]
we can’t just opt out of everything that our neighbours can agree on, just for political point scoring
Erm...
oh look
Matt Hancock caught lying again..........
https://twitter.com/JenWilliamsMEN/status/1250547253972008966
Isn’t the social care sector private, so responsible for acquiring/ordering it’s own PPE?
dantsw13
Member
Isn’t the social care sector private, so responsible for acquiring/ordering it’s own PPE?
about 80% private, but government cant really wash their hands of it that easily
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Department_of_Health_and_Social_Care
why Matt Hancock felt the need to lie about it though?
and social care & NHS are in a feedback loop, better to think of social care as a mostly privatised & sytemically underfunded extension of NHS
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-39043387
& its funded mostly by government via councils
https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publication/performance-tracker-2019/adult-social-care
Tired, do you realise that 95% prediction intervals are supposed to include 95% of the data, not exclude it? Anyone can draw a nice tight prediction interval on a graph if they aren’t bothered about validation.
Infection to death takes several weeks. Deaths levelling off now are the result of R changing to less than one at the time of the lockdown. If R was 1, deaths would keep rising noticeably for at about another week. Case data are a waste of time, they reflect testing policy not actual incidence. If you think R is going down, how and why do you think behaviour is different today to what it was yesterday or the day before? The law changed weeks ago, that’s when behaviour (and therefore R) changed.
You keep on saying that standard epidemiological models are no good but my forecast worked and yours might as well have been tea-leaves on the page.
The Times are suggesting that the government is considering the cocooning/ herd idea again.
Basically, if you are infirm you stay in isolation. Crucially those they interact with also do of course.... Carers/family at home, carers in care homes and by extension.... a big,big chunk of the NHS staff, other than when at work. Ok...
The rest of the population basically crack on (staggered to start with) and gather immunity whilst a minority (but a sizable one) take one for the team. 🇬🇧
"Interesting" if they go this way.
Well going on past form government will avoid having anything to do with it, because Brexit etc
First drop is the api for developers to code against the second drop is it being part of the phones OS.
So eventually It’ll be the phone owners choice.
The phone tracking thing.
That'll be a hoot for youngsters to flag themselves up as Ambers to wind up friends and family.
As the testing in the UK is so woeful it'll be an age before the effected people know if it was a wind up or not too.
we can’t just opt out of everything that our neighbours can agree on, just for political point scoring
I think there’s er ‘interesting’ times likely on this as when people want to start moving around again,unless the first week of a Benidorm holiday starts with one weeks isolation 🙂
That’ll be a hoot for youngsters to flag themselves up as Ambers to wind up friends and family.
Well there’s never much you can do about stupid but when your up shit creek you’ve got to work with what you’ve got.
Probably be a few other measures to see if there’s other cases in the locale and age groups to flag false calls.
^^ I agree and I'm very much for the idea contrary to my glass half empty take.
Hopefully such things bring out the good in people rather than the bad.
Phone tracing will No doubt send the 5g conspiracy theorists into a meltdown.
The local FB group has someone claiming the nearby mast looks “slimmer” ffs.
https://www.ft.com/content/5eb0a90b-ceb5-4441-9456-e30f9a2a7028
Article about Sweden for those with access. I know there’s a few posters in Sweden, would be interesting to get an update from their perspective.
Piers Morgan v Matt Hancock is up in a couple of minutes
We appear to be on a course where the country is going to be both simultaneously horrified at the lack of testing whilst swinging towards cheerleading for the rapid removal of restrictions. Something which it appears only works with really strong test and trace.
Early release of restrictions without full explanation of implications feels a bit like being sold a pup. The take away point from the modelling appears to be - this is the likely course when the current restrictions are maintained. Out of it by July if the current approach it taken. We know there are economic consequences of that but there needs to be greater explanation of the implications of easing restrictions. At the moment the path out feels like it's following the path in - ultimately the people decide. Seeing a lot of countries coming out of restrictions is seems like it is more likely to lead to a decision based on envy than reality.
3 week lock down extension due to be confirmed later today I see. All parties in agreement, but some discussion wanted about how we come out of lock down by Labour...
On a personal note, my sister and family just touched down at Heathrow and off to collect a hire minibus...
👍
@poopscoop - as a family with very vulnerable person, we've been discussing the whole 'what's the exit from lockdown?' question.
I think we're about to see another month of strict lockdown.
But after that I do get the feeling they are going to keep vulnerable (and thier closest) contained at home, and start encouraging groups back to work, school etc. Balancing Covid deaths against stalled economy deaths... So, who's up for taking one for the team?
I was being told of rumors yesterday that some of the academy chains are pushing to get pupils back, as they are fearful of poor SATS and exam results next year already...! FFS.
Seeing a lot of countries coming out of restrictions is seems like it is more likely to lead to a decision based on envy than reality.
Other countries had more severe restrictions as well so have more space for loosening.
I don't like to post unsubstantiated stuff, unless clearly marked as such or as my own thoughts, but there are also others on here that are more in the know than me to run things past.
My FB feed keeps popping up with a couple of reasonably well respected sources suggesting that the brains behind the contact tracking app are the same as behind Cambridge Analytica.
Anyone know anything about that? Just because someone is brilliant at data mining and manipulation doesn't automatically make them evil, but equally the CA connection (if true) does make you think?
So, who’s up for taking one for the team?
That was always going to be the end game until there's a vaccine or more effective treatment. Balancing the risk.
But the longer we are in lockdown (and I'll be disappointed if we don't get 10-12 weeks) the fewer people with non- Covid-19 will be saved by the NHS, the more trashed the economy will be with more deaths resulting from poverty and mental.
Truly are damned if we do and damned if we don't.
Piers Morgan v Matt Hancock is up in a couple of minutes
Thanks for the warning.
My FB feed keeps popping up…
…with shit? Don’t spread it here, please.
Which “app” are you talking about? Link on the previous page will help you find out more about the joint google/apple approach.
You keep on saying that standard epidemiological models are no good but my forecast worked and yours might as well have been tea-leaves on the page.
It’s not that they are no good, it’s that they suffer from parameter identifiability issues during the ascending phase. The rate of growth appears as a ratio. So it could be very transmissible and short-lives or not very transmissible and long-lived (I’ve had it three weeks so far). That means that R could be big or small (but obs >1 initially). Long-term prediction requires a good estimate of both of these factors independently. For other diseases we have them from past epidemics And even experimental infections, so conventional models work very well. For SARS-COV2 it is possible that 80% of transmission is before symptoms. It is possible that for some incubation may be short etc...
Recall do you for y=Mx+c or (a/b)x+ab? Both will fit a straight line perfectly but only one will have well-identified parameters. The correlation between them is why prediction intervals blow up.
I posted one prediction interval for one day for one incidence. The 15% error is the running error for prediction of the mean against the observed cumulative total of Deaths and cases. Predicting incidence is a mugs game 😉 I calculate for people as that’s what they like to see. It’s far too variable for real modelling. The prediction intervals for incidence from conventional models are about +/- 50-100%. So the true value could fall within double it half the estimated value. That’s not useful for policy. Tomorrow’s incidence will definitely be within 0.5-2x today’s. That’s a model-free prediction which I know will be correct. Not helpfully, but correct.
For a different steer, try fitting time-lagged gompertz or generalised log-logistic models (which are SIS models) to the data and look at goodness of fit. All methods are in my manuscript. And including goodness of fit. My time series analysis has a residual of 11% and the epi model 15%. That’s describing 50 simultaneous epidemics globally. So one country may not be perfectly predicted.
The worrying thing for me is that I don't think the government have a plan for the eventual easing of restrictions, a vaccine could be many months away if one can be developed at all,there is no easy answer to this and we are going to have to find a way of living with it for the foreseeable future
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/15/uk-government-has-no-exit-plan-for-covid-19-lockdown-say-sources
Piers Morgan v Matt Hancock is up in a couple of minutes
Thanks for the warning.
Exactly. Will listen to the Melinda Gates interview on R5 this morning instead.
Exactly MCTD.
I'm very aware of so many preventative testing and treatment schemes that are paused due to Covid. Family members and myself included. The price is more deaths and costs in the future, to have saved folk (and flattened the peak) from Covid being the benefit.
My FB feed keeps popping up with a couple of reasonably well respected sources suggesting that the brains behind the contact tracking app are the same as behind Cambridge Analytica.
Spotted this last night, need to re-read it when more awake, but looks to go into some detail on how the various contact tracing apps might work.
https://unherd.com/2020/04/can-your-smartphone-crack-covid/
They have 5 digits.
4 on the front 5 on the back, according to google.
They have 5 digits.
they are easier to draw with 4
Without the testing capacity contact tracing can't work.
They've taken a lot of qPCR machines from unis a month ago now, but have increased testing capacity by the output of only 2-3 machines a day.
Swabs, RNA extraction kits & rtPCR reagents must be the backlog.
Other issue might be standardising output from different brand of machines.
Either way care homes, essential workers, NHS all at risk until it's sorted out & there's no way lockdown can begin to end until the system is set up.
Truly are damned if we do and damned if we don’t.
Agreed, we just need as much information as possible to understand the consequences. There's someone on BBC 1 at the moment making the case that lifting restrictions should very much be tied with evidence we are in a fit state to deal with the rise in cases post restriction.
