There's new news and old news, outofbreath, you appear to be hanging onto the old news. Now we're certain we're talking about the same WHO report and you've finally correctly quoted it with the important nuances (respecting the philosophy of doubt) I suggest you look at the date, and it was already out of date back then as the asymptomatic transmission evidence was appearing at the same time in other sources such as the one I linked. Since then there have been a several studies to support the idea that both asymptomatic cases and asymptomatic transmission are sufficiently common to be a major headache in managing the crisis.
It's why for example just measuring people's temperature of checking for symptoms is not going to stop the spread of this virus as it has with others. Another thing we've learned along the way.
Use your Google skills and bring your knowledge up to date. When you have I hope you stop saying there's no asymptomatic transmission because in the current state of knowledge that's fake news. That's why I challenged you several pages back.
I’m pretty sure it was known very early that many people are asymptotic which is very much why it spreads, it was also reported it being a case.
That was me not outofbreath.
You posted the WHO report regarding asymptomatic transmission, now you're claiming it isn't worthy?
Your other link appears to be mixing pre symptomatic with asymptomatic so perhaps that is the discrepancy.
FFS there is no confusion.
I linked the WHO report because it was misquoted not because I thought it state of the art and I linked the Science et vie article to support the idea of asymptomatic transmission. My point is simple:
The current concensus is that asymptomatic transmission is not only possible but common
I suggest you read back to see who said what excee. (Edit: I've checked it was definitely Outofbreath)
I keep checking this thread in the hope the vacuous bickering will quieten down.
Another peak we’re not past yet.
I miss the harmony of the Brexit thread.
Bickering or pointing it out when some (mis)quotes out-of-date, cherry-picked material to mislead and support their contrarian views.
As the Brexit thread is being raised, I remember spending the first 12 months on it denouncing the fake news of the rabid Brexiters such as Jambalaya.
Outofbreath jumped onto Vallance's herd immunity (without a vaccin) ideas around page 85 and has since spent his time posting contrarian ideas with no regard to where the learning process is leading us.
You can FFS all you like but you seem confused 🙂
It was me that just quoted the WHO report but you answered as if it were outofbreath, I was just pointing out your mistake.
The WHO report YOU linked is clear about asymptotic transmission, I quoted it, you then claimed it was old news although you posted it to support your point about asymptomatic transmission, your other link appears to be mixing pre symptomatic and asymptomatic which muddies the waters.
Not a drama but do you have evidence of your asymptomatic transmission point (I'm interested, it's not some masculinity challenge)
Some people need to get out on their bikes more... ummm maybe not.
I keep checking this thread in the hope the vacuous bickering will quieten down.
Another peak we’re not past yet.
I'd be concerned if there wasn't bickering
A bit like there is with Boris you mean?
A lot like. He's the PM, normal rules don't apply.
Yeah you can if you stop and think. We’re busy trying to decide where might be best for Gran to be discharged to, it’s allowed as it’s essential travel.
Good to see your gran continues to be on the mend.
Thanks OAP she’s really well apparently at almost 7 days now so looking hopeful.
More 'king crass stupidity and irresponsibility from the good ole US of A
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-52285742
You can FFS all you like but you seem confused 🙂
It was me that just quoted the WHO report but you answered as if it were outofbreath, I was just pointing out your mistake.The WHO report YOU linked is clear about asymptotic transmission, I quoted it, you then claimed it was old news although you posted it to support your point about asymptomatic transmission
Thanks, word for word the same as the podcast I heard. (and linked to):
to date, there has been no documented asymptomatic transmission
Not a drama but do you have evidence of your asymptomatic transmission point (I’m interested, it’s not some masculinity challenge)
Yeah, I'm interested too, hence I asked the question. In the early days it seemed generally acknowledged that asymtomatic transmission was highly unlikely, then it seemed generally acknowledged that it happened, and I was surprised to hear last night the jury was actually still out. (In the podcast I quoted above.)
Thanks OAP she’s really well apparently at almost 7 days now so looking hopeful.
Good news.
Yeah, I’m interested too, hence I asked the question. In the early days it seemed generally acknowledged that asymtomatic transmission was highly unlikely, then it seemed generally acknowledged that it happened, and I was surprised to hear last night the jury was actually still out. (In the podcast I quoted above.)
Its been shown a few times that mild/asymptomatic/presymptomatic* people can still have a relatively high viral load in nasal & throat swabs, meaning that they could cough/sneeze out live virus, tho presumably less likely to than someone hacking up a lungful every few minutes !
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2001737?url_ver=Z39.88-2003&rfr_id=ori:rid:crossref.org&rfr_dat=cr_pub%3dpubmed
*theres a few things to unpack there
showing asymptomatic spread harder, Diamond Princess was an enclosed floating lab & couldnt show either way whether asymptomatic people were spreaders
because the only way out of this is cooperation at an international level
Agree with this bit – but who’s going to do it?
https://twitter.com/paulbranditv/status/1250189814927851521?s=21
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What does the WHO even do?
More what it symbolises IMO.
Hes gt to distract from his own medical advisors saying he ignored the advice to lockdown earlier
What does the WHO even do?
Google it.
The Donald busy looking for bigger headlines than “The Donald’s Failures”
Linked to from an article about repeated distancing measures until 2022/further infection spikes there’s this article some might want to read
https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/04/14/science.abb5793.full
I can imagine MPs being really envious of those earning heroes medals when all they can get is a pay rise, travel and dinner, a 10k extra bunce on the exes, a second house (with a duck house) and maybe a free holiday in the Middle East.
Medals my arse.
What does the WHO even do?
All you need to know is Donald Trump doesn't like them, which is therefore a pretty iron-clad guarantee that they're doing some good stuff.
Linked to from an article about repeated distancing measures until 2022/further infection spikes there’s this article some might want to read
https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/04/14/science.abb5793.full /blockquote>
Thanks piemonster.
I was going to dip in and out/skim read but I ended up reading the lot.
For anyone else wondering there's a lot of common sense and discussion of how this might play out in straightforward English. All underpinned by the few facts we have. Well worth a read.
a pretty iron-clad guarantee that they’re doing some good stuff.
I'm sure they're doing great stuff but everyone involved in this is going to take some blame and the WHO is no exception:
https://twitter.com/WHO/status/1217043229427761152
https://twitter.com/WHOWPRO/status/1217646749545664514
Inquiries are held with the benefit of hindsight, this stuff all seemed pretty reasonable at the time, from the today's perspective it looks less so. The WHO are going to suffer from that, just as the world's Politicians and Civil Servants are.
I posted a week or more back about my sister and 40+ folk stuck in an international school compound in India.
There's currently 37 of them in a convoy of coaches organised by the FCO at the Kerala border. They've been collecting UK (and a few Canadian) citizens in their way for the last 6 hours, this the the last barrier before getting to the airport. There's 11 planes all over India today and tomorrow, after than no FCO organised repatriation, just commercial flights whenever they restart. They will have medical at the airport - if anyone on thier bus has temp/cough, the whole bus will be turned away from the flight.
They've left 7 adults behind who couldn't get onto the flights, but who have been allowed to move into a different part of the school about 1km away, in a newer, better compound in town. ☹️
They've also left most belongings locked in a building, as the school site is now to be Covid hospital for the foreseeable. I doubt they will see any of thier stuff again.
They've no proper accommodation in the UK- at this point in time they may have three weeks in a church hall building, as it has everything but a bath & shower (including outside space for the kids and a church run second hand furniture store attached, complete with mattresses etc.) They had an Airbnb lined up until the plug was pulled. They have a rented house in 20 days (we think...just verbal confirmation at present).
Fingers crossed for the next few hours.
Edit:- just to add, some UK tourists have been sleeping rough in India, after many hotels closed in compliance with state lock down. India is even closing hospitals if there has been a Covid case in the hospital, and not allowing doctors and nurses to go to work because of the supposed total curfew... Bonkers.
I’m sure they’re doing great stuff but everyone involved in this is going to take some blame and the WHO is no exception:
Thats pretty selective OOB
WHOs great error was believing China, and there's an argument that keeping China happy & inside is important to keep them playing nicely .
Once that initial cover up in China was removed & the big dump of papers were allowed to come out mid Jan onwards WHO started warning everyone to prepare, 30th Jan they decalred international public health emergency.
Trump spent the next couple of months wishing it away, ignoring his advisors advice to lockdown & calling it a dem hoax
WHO will have questions to answer, but this is an obvious attemt at deflection from trump
I’m sure they’re doing great stuff but everyone involved in this is going to take some blame and the WHO is no exception:
Yeah “China reports...” the same day WHO reported 41 cases spread between families.
https://www.who.int/news-room/detail/08-04-2020-who-timeline---covid-19
WHOs great error was believing China, and there’s an argument that keeping China happy & inside is important to keep them playing nicely .
They didn’t believe China check the timeline.
That sounds grim Matt and from mine and friends dealings with the FCO in the past not surprising
In other news Piers Morgan (the hero we never knew we needed) just obliterated another Tory MP (Helen Whatley) live on TV
after than no FCO organised repatriation, just commercial flights whenever they restart.
Repatriation flights are still being planned. It's a logistical headache if you need to get a plane of passengers out of a country that's 10 hours flying time away and your flight crew can't enter the country.
It takes 7 pilots to do a there-and-back long haul flight for cargo alone, and that's with a special exemption from flight time limitations. To do that with cabin crew as well would mean flying more pilots and crew around than passengers.
You also need to complete an aircraft transit check at the destination. If you haven't got approved engineering there then you need your own engineers and spares. Can your engineer get off the aircraft without being forcibly swabbed? Same for the pilot who needs to complete a second independent inspection of the aircraft.
So it's going to happen at some point, and some flights have already run (there's a volunteer list at my company for those of us willing to operate rescue flights / go into Covid-19 risky areas) but it's a bit more complicated than ordering a taxi for 200.
In other news Piers Morgan (the hero we never knew we needed) just obliterated another Tory MP (Helen Whatley) live on TV
He’s a **** only says what will get him the most attention.
Inquiries are held with the benefit of hindsight, this stuff all seemed pretty reasonable at the time, from the today’s perspective it looks less so. The WHO are going to suffer from that, just as the world’s Politicians and Civil Servants are.
Thats pretty selective OOB
WHOs great error was believing China, and there’s an argument that keeping China happy & inside is important to keep them playing nicely .
I'm not saying the WHO or anyone else has made any error, great or otherwise, in this impossible situation.
I'm saying there will be some blame allocated later and some blame will be going the way of the WHO just as it will go the way of every organisation/government/civil service that has had any involvement in this because these judgements will be made much later with the benefit of hindsight.
You're a pretty good example yourself: You're saying the WHO made a great error in believing China. You know that in hindsight, I bet you didn't say it at the time!
WHOs great error was believing China
Pay me £50k a year and I'll re-Tweet some stuff direct from Chinese health agencies. WHO have a budget of about $4b so you'd expect better.
You’re a pretty good example yourself: You’re saying the WHO made a great error in believing China. You know that in hindsight, I bet you didn’t say it at the time!
I'd hope the WHO have more knowledge and competency on health than some random on a bike forum. Is the latter really the benchmark?
WHO were still buttering up China to allow them access
WHO team weren't allowed to Wuhan until 22nd Feb
Once WHO had evidence of human to human transition they updated advice (a week after that tweet up there)
Trump ignored it , now he's trying to shift the blame
Probably new thread worthy but have we done this? Chav
Local Chavs get gobby and trow threats to cut Asda staff up for not letting them in, Dad drags them back to apologise 😀
Why are we seeing if Trump has a legitimate gripe agains the WHO - a serial avoider of blame; someone who was constantly briefing out the virus was a hoax; who will pick a fight at the drop of a hat.
The questions are really - how dangerous will it be if it's all the WHO narrative takes hold? What impact does cutting the funding have?
I mean - me sir no sir, them sir, WHO sir, not on their game sir, nasty business China, definitely them sir, dodgy business don't trust em sir. Are we really looking for evidence to support this nonsense?
Yeah this is obviously not about any WHO failings but it's deflection by Trump. His management of this has been awful because he's too dumb to understand science and too arrogant to do what his advisors say. A real 'perfect storm'.
I think China have a huge responsibility here, though.
1) 'Wet' markets
2) Misrepresenting the initial outbreak
3) Lying about human-to-human spread
4) Presumably lying about the number of deaths
5) Continuing their program of misinformation about the release of lockdown etc.
Even now, we don't know what the effects of releasing lockdown will be, because precisely no one has any faith in the figures China are releasing. They are the de facto guinea pigs here - the first country to suffer this thing and they could help the rest of the world understand how best to respond. Not only would they rather save face than share that information, the China government may even prefer if the rest of the world suffers as much as they have. Truly corrupt.
He’s a **** only says what will get him the most attention.
Amen to that. Piers Morgan is no different from Hatey Plopkins. All about the retweets and attention. He has no allegiance (including to the truth) other than to himself and his wallet.
WHO were still buttering up China to allow them access
WHO team weren’t allowed to Wuhan until 22nd Feb
Since Brundtland left, WHO can only rely on diplomacy. The International Health Regulations they work to stop short of granting them any powers, mainly because all the member states (including the US) don't want to be told what to do. Which I suggest is why they end up saying diplomatic things about a member, as they know they need access to the Country to find out what's going on.
I agree that Tweet seems off message - but it does say 'preliminary' and 'no clear evidence' so could still be factual.
When asked about it this week the response from Dr Maria Van Kerkhove was...
'So very early on we suspected that there would be human-to-human transmission because it's a respiratory pathogen and so that's why our guidance on 10th and 11th January included information on how to protect people from getting infected, focusing on respiratory and droplet transmission.'
'That guidance is still in effect.'
I’d hope the WHO have more knowledge and competency on health than some random on a bike forum. Is the latter really the benchmark?
They do which is why they recommend PPE for healthcare dealing with covid type cases from 10th January and announced it was spreading person to person on the 14th. The tweet above is reporting china’s false claim.
Amen to that. Piers Morgan is no different from Hatey Plopkins. All about the retweets and attention. He has no allegiance (including to the truth) other than to himself and his wallet.
My dad (in his 70s, infirm, cancer, cardiovascular issues) took it upon himself to wander off to the shops alone a couple of weeks ago.
When we all asked what on earth he was thinking of, he said he'd been watching Morgan that morning, where he was ripping apart the country's response to the pandemic, so Dad's response was to think it's all a waste of time, I'll carry on as normal. I despair.
Some interesting analysis of the rate of spread of disease
https://epiforecasts.io/covid/posts/national/united-kingdom/
which may be relevant to timing the peak of the infection.
