Good post IRC it’s a reflection of what has been said by the government from day 1 but with graphs and we all love a graph.
@TiRed thanks for all the information and the communication of your work - it's very much appreciated.
At the moment, we are sure we are at the peak, it won’t get much worse if things stay the same. How long we sit on the peak is debatable but a week or so is an informed guess. If we release the hounds of contact, we’ll be back to doubling every 2 days. Lockdown can’t be relaxed until we are sure things are declining. That’s at least three weeks away.
What degree of certainty have you on this please? Our trust is still saying that peak demand is a week away - if we are already at or near to peak this would give us a little bit of optimism with our capacity
How do you define peak demand? Daily admissions or ICU cumulative demand? One would expect ICU to keep 'backing up' for some time because people on vents aren't leaving exactly quickly?
I’d say more on reported cases Rydster not just icu admissions, fortunately very few need icu.
Does he not mean peak new demand? Which is why new ventilators etc will still need to be coming into use after that peak.
https://medium.com/wintoncentre/how-much-normal-risk-does-covid-represent-4539118e1196
Thanks IRC.
It's not the main point of the document but that's the first time I've seen viral load mentioned in a credible source. (Obvs I don't read enough credible sources.) I was beginning to wonder if it really was a 'thing' in this context.
What I really want to know is can I transfer my kid's risk of death to myself. I'm thinking some kind of occult ritual?
Quick question for the medics.
Why can't "normal" coveralls be used? Spray them with a treatment to resist fluids and wash them at the end of a shift?
What about Tyvek type disposable coveralls? Will they do the job?
Does he not mean peak new demand? Which is why new ventilators etc will still need to be coming into use after that peak.
It's a cumulative demand and as you point out we are expecting it to be sustained; for how long is an unknown at the moment.
What degree of certainty have you on this please?
As certain as is possible from all available data. The U.K. as a whole is at peak. Regions will be behind this peak by up to two weeks. Deaths may lag a further week behind for each region.
We will not see a further doubling of deaths/day from a predicted peak of up to 800 to 1200.
I don't think Spiegelhalter would be very well recieved in a hospital that had lost a number of key staff at an age when they would norammly have had several more years active service and an enjoyable rtirement on top. Claiming it's just a normal year's death is rubbish, because a normal years death doesn't include so many people with a long life expectancy.
Callous and misleading use of lies, damned lies and statistics.
So, roughly speaking, we might say that getting COVID-19 is like packing a year’s worth of risk into a week or two. Which is why it’s important to spread out the infections to avoid the NHS being overwhelmed.
Is what he was getting at.
As an NHS worker I welcome him reinforcing the UK plans.
Which seems to suggest that the age group likely to be hit hardest by “extra” deaths is 50-70 … which is also the main age range of people in the NHS and care system choosing to either put off retirement, or to re-enter service, to help us through this.
Selfless heroes.
I don't know if this has already been posted :
https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/302613
And I don't know if it's the best petition, it certainly hasn't got many signatures. But I do think that there should be a campaign medal/award for all of those who worked in/with the NHS during the COVID-19 pandemic.
I know it sounds a bit trite, and perhaps even a bit patronising, but I do think that all those in the NHS who put themselves in harm's way during the greatest medical crises the UK has seen in a hundred years deserve recognition. A simple badge, should they choose to wear it, on their uniform or lapel would be nice.
They have every right to be proud and the UK public should given the opportunity to identify those to whom they are indebted to. Furthermore it would be nice if the families of those who paid the ultimate price had something which they could treasure and which knowledges the nation's gratitude.
I think they'd appreciate pay that reflects their skills, working conditions and commitment more than a badge, Ernie. And yes, it does soulnd... .
I have no idea if those doctors and other healthcare workers who have died were poorly paid Edukator but if they were then that's another issue.
If you don't like the sentiments behind the petition then just don't sign it, instead of trying to find something else to argue with me about.
How did you make that about you Ernie?
There are many ways to make people feel valued, and recognise them personally, and the role they perform more generally. Pay isn’t the only way. A medal might not be the best way.
My name?
Personally the thanks we receive is enough I’m doing my job but the biggest thing people can do is Stay at Home.
Ernie, yes you `Ernie don’t start making this another argumentative thread Edukator was just expressing his opinion not a personal attack.
I don’t think Spiegelhalter would be very well recieved(sic) in a hospital that had lost a number of key staff at an age when they would norammly(sic) have had several more years active service and an enjoyable rtirement(sic) on top. Claiming it’s just a normal year’s death is rubbish, because a normal years death doesn’t include so many people with a long life expectancy.
<sigh>
From the article:
I should also say that this analysis only applies to the general public. Those who may be exposed to a high viral load, such as health care workers, may have substantially more risk than their ‘normal’ year’s worth, shown by the tragic deaths in Italy, UK and elsewhere.
If you're going to misrepresent an article, probably best to pick one where there isn't a direct link a couple of posts up.
I think many health workers are poorly paid. If there's a recuruitment crisis in a profession pay is very often a major factor:
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2017/may/13/royal-college-nursing-nhs-recruitment-crisis
Edit: so the man shouldn't talk about a normal year's deaths then, Outofbreath, he's contradicting himself with mixed messages. That's my point, he can't talk about a normal years deaths when his own article includes an example to prove it's not normal. His graphs don't show the reality of the demographics and are misleading.
An where did you first hear about minimum infective dose? Probably from me a few weeks ago on this thread. I linked an article about it because it used to critical to the intepretation of results I used to produce and how to act on them.
Medal?
Jeff off with your medals... I'd like to be alive with decent mental and physical health at the end of it, thanks very much.
...and if we could stop using 'increased risk to healthcare workers' or 'deaths of healthcare workers' as a way to score shitty internet points, that would be lovely...
Oh yes, the reason I logged in; coveralls...
The problem with protective gear is getting it off again without contaminating too much of the environment and yourself; theatre gowns are ideal in that they can be ripped off from the back, enclosing the front for disposal.
Yeah I think Crikey has pretty much covered it. 😁
Meh! medals will just lie at the bottom of the tat drawer, well my 3 do.
Wife would just like in no particular order. A hospital that has working A/C roasting hot in summer, freezing in winter. The general public not to be so self entitled when in hospital, stop treating her like hired help, regular breaks (meals and toilet), a parking pass so she doesn't have to walk almost 3/4 mile to get to her car on a wet cold night, funny how a P/T ward receptionist can get a pass. Her full pension that she signed up to.
If they are throwing money at her I'm sure she'll take it, but there are many many better things they can do than dish out a poxy medal reminding NHS staff of CV19.
I note Outofbreath links an ITV podcast not the original WHO report he misquoted. Anyow, try using Google translate on this, Outofbreath:
Asymptomatic carriers are responsible for over half of transmissions.
Oldagedpredator,
Great point
'Floating' ideas creates a culture dish of confusion. It's a good thing to remember when things get a bit fraught. It's not that we or others are (necessarily) wrong or stupid.
Looks like my mum in a care home is ok, was showing symptoms (temp and cough) but seems to be on the mend.
Crikey - thanks. So if you had fabric rear closing gowns, they could be similarly doffed safely into a laundry bag?
That would work to an extent, but disposable theatre gowns have a certain amount of water resistance built in, so using reusable textile gowns may need a little bit of a ..er.. change in practice. Certainly not an insurmountable problem, would require someone dressed up to help you get undressed as well.
So how come it's okay for Boris to travel to Chequers rather than stay in London to recover?
I think many health workers are poorly paid. If there’s a recuruitment crisis in a profession pay is very often a major factor:
Not necessarily true, depends what is driving the recruitment crisis, if people are leaving faster than they can be replaced pay is probably not the biggest issue, working conditions, management culture, societal respect for the role are higher motivators than money. Money is a demotivator for most people, increasing it makes them happy for a week or two then it becomes the new norm.
If recruiting new people is the issue money may play a part but it's still more about availability of better paid work as an alternative. In the case of the NHS it's more about providing enough training places (and not expecting the recruits to pay for it) and improving retention.
As he was discharged from hospital as opposed to travelling. That’s allowed for anyone coming out of hospital.
I thought would be obvious.
@edukator, you linked the WHO report earlier and it doesn't corroborate 50% of transmission for asymptomatic , is there a clear reason for the information discrepancies?
The WHO report you linked said-
An asymptomatic laboratory-confirmed case is a person infected with COVID-19 who does not develop symptoms.
Asymptomatic transmission refers to transmission of the virus from a person, who does not develop symptoms.
There are few reports of laboratory-confirmed cases who are truly asymptomatic, and to date, there has been no
documented asymptomatic transmission. This does not exclude the possibility that it may occur. Asymptomatic cases
have been reported as part of contact tracing efforts in some countries.
Money is a demotivator for most people, increasing it makes them happy for a week or two then it becomes the new norm.
My economics profs wouldn't have agreed.
Why deny a known problem exists?
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-london-36151927
As he was discharged from hospital as opposed to travelling. That’s allowed for anyone coming out of hospital.
And his partners excuse? 😉
Inkster - good news about your mother.
TiRed - tracking the rumour mill article was an interesting read.
As he was discharged from hospital as opposed to travelling. That’s allowed for anyone coming out of hospital.
I thought would be obvious.
So why didn't he go back to the much closer (by 30miles or so) Downing Street, where he'd also be ready to govern once well & also demonstrate a bit of "we're all in this together" rather than swanning off to country pad
As he was discharged from hospital as opposed to travelling. That’s allowed for anyone coming out of hospital.
It's not clear cut. Disappearing off to a second home for recuperation - hmmm, depending on who it was there might be a real or social media lynching for that. It the public started doing this a lot - vanishing off to the Cornwall, the Lakes or the Dales - I think there would be a backlash.
On the other hand - he is the PM. The flat isn't a normal flat it's the flat over the shop. Not exactly the best place for recovery. It is legitimate to send him off but you cant square the circle it creates in terms it being the same rules for everyone.
A working (albeit very fancy) office block isn’t where I’d want to recover.
The temptation to wander downstairs out of the apartment to work would be an issue as well.
It’s not clear cut. Disappearing off to a second home for recuperation – hmmm, depending on who it was there might be a real or social media lynching for that. It the public started doing this a lot – vanishing off to the Cornwall, the Lakes or the Dales – I think there would be a backlash.
A bit like there is with Boris you mean?
I’ve no idea where his fiancé is Scotroutes.
It is legitimate to send him off but you cant square the circle it creates in terms it being the same rules for everyone.
Yeah you can if you stop and think. We’re busy trying to decide where might be best for Gran to be discharged to, it’s allowed as it’s essential travel.
So why didn’t he go back to the much closer (by 30miles or so) Downing Street, where he’d also be ready to govern once well & also demonstrate a bit of “we’re all in this together” rather than swanning off to country pad
He might head to work work when he’s recovered or maybe work from home.
I’ve no idea where his fiancé is Scotroutes.
Chequers as well..
It's well knowing that money has a dual-property. More of it motivates the rich but less of it motivates the poor right?
Chequers as well..
Thanks for the update.
Well, this crisis does appear to be shinning a light on the inadequacies of our privatised care home business.
Meh! medals will just lie at the bottom of the tat drawer, well my 3 do.
Well that's the point bruneep, the fire brigades and police forces award medals, why should it be any different for the NHS?
I don't deny that the whole concept sounds twee and cheesy, but so is the standing outside every Thursday at 8pm clapping for 2 minutes, and yet I still do it. It would be nice if there was a tangible recognition, something that can be held, even if it's left at the bottom of a draw! And not least for the ones that have lost loved ones. But perhaps a memorial somewhere would be a better way to remember those.
And his partners excuse? 😉
Doesn't need one, she's entitled to travel to provide care. You could raise your eyebrows at that but anyone would do the same. I'd certainly do it to look after my partner if they'd just been discharged from hospital after a life threatening illness.
Going back to no11 would be crazy… let the man go rest and recover!
Well that’s the point bruneep, the fire brigades and police forces award medals, why should it be any different for the NHS?
I’ve 3 medals. 😁 oh and the petition was for all emergency services.
My medals are in a safe place as I take pride in them and proud to have them.
But perhaps a memorial somewhere would be a better way to remember those.
A big lids up would be better.
I’d certainly do it to look after my partner if they’d just been discharged from hospital after a life threatening illness.
Get away with your facts.
