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The Coronavirus Dis...
 

The Coronavirus Discussion Thread.

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‘What’s the downside?’

A false sense of security. People going places with a mask on that they wouldn’t without a mask.


 
Posted : 10/04/2020 5:16 pm
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Kelvin,

False sense of security?

See:
Seatbelts
Airbags
Fire alarms
Parachutes
Condoms
Bulletproof vests
etc etc.

But it's a fairly moot point when over 95% of people aren't wearing masks when they go shoping anyhow.

Why would you choose not to wear a mask when you go shopping?

Off to shop now, be back in an hour and won't have infected anyone else in that time because I'll be wearing a home made mask.


 
Posted : 10/04/2020 5:22 pm
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Apple’s and oranges mate

Correct. Your corner shop and Tescos are a completely different thing. 100 customers a day vs millions.

Just out of curiosity, do you wear a mask when you’re shopping?

Yeah. I got it with all my Tescos dividends.


 
Posted : 10/04/2020 5:39 pm
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We as a society are pan bashing for the nhs and yet are selfisg gits who voted Tory. Its not hard to understand his point.

Except that not everyone is bashing pots with a spoon and only 44% (?) of the country voted Tory, so you can't conclude that those cheering outside are hypocrites.


 
Posted : 10/04/2020 6:11 pm
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We as a society are pan bashing for the nhs and yet are selfisg gits who voted Tory. Its not hard to understand his point.

I understood his point, which has varied and got watered down at every subsequent post.  But anyway...


 
Posted : 10/04/2020 6:41 pm
 Drac
Posts: 50623
 

Anyway.

My Gran is being moved to general hospital as she’s recovering so well. The nurse who has been looking after her is a very good friend of my wife. As no visitors are allowed she the nurse took her phone into the room and used to FaceTime some relatives.

Very early days but she’s looking very well.


 
Posted : 10/04/2020 6:46 pm
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Good news Drac, shows how unpredictable this virus is and why we all need to take it seriously, ashamed to say it took a while for the penny to drop with me, I was adhering to the instructions but thought it a bit overkill at first, I was wrong.


 
Posted : 10/04/2020 6:54 pm
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Good news.


 
Posted : 10/04/2020 6:56 pm
 Drac
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The blasting with steroids seems to be working for her.

Yes I watched it start off thinking it’ll be like SARS and Ebola soon brought under control, that very rapidly became apparent that it wouldn’t happen.


 
Posted : 10/04/2020 6:56 pm
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Torsoinalake,

Explain to me this, how is it that Tescos can limit number of items and implement social distancing now but couldn't do it a couple of weeks back?

Glad you got your face mask, just make sure you put it over your nose and mouth and not over your eyes.


 
Posted : 10/04/2020 6:59 pm
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There’s a lot of passing the buck, and not answering the actual questions in today’s Downing Street briefing!


 
Posted : 10/04/2020 7:08 pm
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that very rapidly became apparent that it wouldn’t happen

But it could have happened if our (and other governments) acted based on how this virus had behaved in other countries, rather than using our own models based on other previous viruses.


 
Posted : 10/04/2020 7:15 pm
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I understood his point, which has varied and got watered down at every subsequent post.

It's the same point as I made 9 hours ago: the only 'watering down' is coming to the realisation that it doesn't matter how bad it gets, there will still be people who don't care about society or the needy and I'm wasting my breath pointing it out.

Except that not everyone is bashing pots with a spoon and only 44% (?) of the country voted Tory, so you can’t conclude that those cheering outside are hypocrites.

As individuals, you're right but as a society we did / do both those things. Bashing a pan is easy, when we had the chance to vote for a society that would fund it but would cost us in extra taxes, etc., we went back indoors.

Will this make a difference? See point 1.


 
Posted : 10/04/2020 7:44 pm
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How good would it be if this thread went back to being a well thought out, informative resource, with some valued input from folk that have some actual knowledge?.

Wind yer necks in angry boys.


 
Posted : 10/04/2020 7:51 pm
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I'm not angry, just disappointed [parent mode off]


 
Posted : 10/04/2020 7:58 pm
 Del
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Del and drac,

You say that with regards hoarding at supermarkets, except for a small minority this only happened in the popular consciousness.

Do you mean popular consciousness or alternative reality?

i dunno - folklore? it didn't really happen the way you might think it did. torsoinalake put it as well as i might have. ( ta! ).

as to masks, you might be interested in this article
hope you find it of use. edited to add - in particular the last couple of paragraphs about use/taking on/off.


 
Posted : 10/04/2020 8:05 pm
 Del
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How good would it be if this thread went back to being a well thought out, informative resource, with some valued input from folk that have some actual knowledge?.

feelings are running high. it's to be expected, however this ^ is an excellent idea. this has been a useful source of information for me. it would be a shame to dilute it with all the emotive arguments we can easily find in other threads on here at the mo.


 
Posted : 10/04/2020 8:13 pm
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Bashing a pan is easy, when we had the chance to vote for a society that would fund it but would cost us in extra taxes,etc., we went back indoors.

And always bashing the Tories is both easy and also missing the point.

In the last 23 years we have had less than two and a half years of majority Tory governments.

23 years is a very long time in politics, two and a half years really isn't.

To suggest that the NHS is where it is today solely because of the Tories isn't helpful. If you really want to find a solution to the problem which you perceive I would suggest that you go beyond simple Tory-bashing.


 
Posted : 10/04/2020 8:13 pm
 Del
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and i'm sure the tories had no hand whatsoever: Since 2015, the United Kingdom has cut public-health budgets by £1 billion sauce
still - i've gone back on agreeing with nobeerinthefridge's point, so i suggest we move on.


 
Posted : 10/04/2020 8:22 pm
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so you can’t conclude that those cheering outside are hypocrites.

I an if I know some who are outside pan bashing and have previously told me how they voted.

Drac, great news about your gran!


 
Posted : 10/04/2020 8:37 pm
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Kelvin,

Exactly.


 
Posted : 10/04/2020 8:54 pm
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and i’m sure the tories had no hand whatsoever: Since 2015, the United Kingdom has cut public-health budgets by £1 billion sauce

It goes a bit beyond 2015. Do you want a sauce?

And there's a huge difference between pointing out that the Tories aren't solely responsible for the NHS and saying that "the tories had no hand whatsoever". But you knew that.

As you no doubt also know about the toxic legacy of PFI.

Still, I guess some people are just more interested in scoring party political points.


 
Posted : 10/04/2020 9:19 pm
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My Gran is being moved to general hospital as she’s recovering so well.

Goods news drac!


 
Posted : 10/04/2020 9:20 pm
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Del,

We'll have to agree to disagree about the conduct of the supermarkets.

Read that article about face masks. It's from a scientific journal so they'll be better informed than me. But does being better informed always lead to making better decisions?

Seeing as we don't have a full understanding of the virus, we'll informed scientists will still be speculating, so it's one speculation versus another, with no proof either way as yet.

I echo what reluctantjumper was saying, where a nurse told him it was inconclusive as to how well the mask would protect you from the virus but it was pretty conclusive that wearing one was effective in limiting the wearer spreading the virus. Ergo, by wearing a mask there's less chance of the virus spreading generally.

So in this instance I'd rather listen to a nurse than a scientist. She/he has skin in the game so to speak. She has much more to loose, (her life). What does the scientist have to loose?


 
Posted : 10/04/2020 9:34 pm
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Yes, but how does she know?


 
Posted : 10/04/2020 9:35 pm
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NHS funding hasn't been cut, it's gone up year on year, Source (spelt correctly). I think it's even gone up above inflation. It might not be keeping up with increased demand but it certainly hasn't been cut, saying it has been is lazy and wrong.

It's also arguable additional funding would be better going to social care or health improvement initiatives to reduce the overall demand on the NHS. Demand on the NHS has increased ever since it was created, it's always been under pressure as long as I can remember.


 
Posted : 10/04/2020 9:37 pm
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To suggest that the NHS is where it is today solely because of the Tories isn’t helpful

Christ on a bike, well who the **** was it then? We've had at least 2 National Security reviews since 2010 where the risk of flu pandemic was front and centre with the NHS having to bear the brunt of it.


 
Posted : 10/04/2020 9:40 pm
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Anecdotal and entirely unscientific I know.

China has managed (for now at least) to eradicate the virus. Everyone in Wuhan has been wearing masks.

The virus is continuing to spread in Britain. Very few people in Britain are wearing masks.


 
Posted : 10/04/2020 9:42 pm
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Imnotverygood,

She doesn't know. So she's following the precautionary principle.


 
Posted : 10/04/2020 9:46 pm
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but i shall automate outputs now for the whole country and post something when done.

Hope the symptoms start calm down a bit TiRed.

I'm curious about the local authority data. Mainly what Cumbria is like - one of the papers had the county as having highest infection rate outside London. Whilst I'm not sure that is correct there's definitely something off. Was talking to someone else in the village today, seems there are five of us who are on the Dr says highly likely. No contact between each other no overseas travel. All had a fairly full bingo card, this person and their partner both had it. One had the fever the other the cough and bad conjunctivitis - both pummelled on the fitness now. They're about six weeks out.

This has probably been answered before but...

...is the death data constantly re-adjusted to take into account of the lag between death and notification? Is there any change in the curve because of it?

Drac, that is good news.


 
Posted : 10/04/2020 10:03 pm
 Del
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inkster i wasn't disagreeing with you, i was rather providing a link to information i had read i thought you might find useful.

Still, I guess some people are just more interested in scoring party political points.

yes, i guess some people are. if you go back to my original observation it was that we, the voting population, had voted for brexit and for this government. i don't really have that much of an axe to grind with the tories as such. tories gonna tory. :shrug:

stumpy - i know how to spell source, thanks, i just chose not to. it was a light-hearted thing. sadly it seems i have to explain it. 🙁

anyway, i've allowed this to get derailed again. 🙁 please can we get back on topic?


 
Posted : 10/04/2020 10:07 pm
 kilo
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deleted, waste of effort reacting with some of those here.


 
Posted : 10/04/2020 10:08 pm
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Everyone in Wuhan has been wearing masks.

Haven't they also been under a much tighter set of movement restrictions? If we were exactly like Wuhan it might make a reasonable comparison. I don't think we are and I feel the media needs to take care in pushing a Wuhan's out narrative. We may just end up disappointed as an expectation is created that cant be met. Bit like testing and ventilators.


 
Posted : 10/04/2020 10:13 pm
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Thing I can't get my head round is how contagious this virus must be. Just read kenny dalglish has tested positive despite having been self isolating for significantly longer than the government recomendation.

Also, my mates daughter apparently showing symptoms..she and the rest of the family have only been out the house once in a fortnight.

Scary stuff..

On a more positive note dalglish only got tested as he was in hospital for something unrelated, and is showing no symptoms. Seems so random how it affects different people in different ways


 
Posted : 10/04/2020 10:47 pm
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What I think needs to happen in the UK at this junction is for the UK government to be firmer with their communication to the public.

Communicating information to a large number of people is incredibly hard, and they have done a fantastic job. They have kept the message simple, and kept repeating it. However, I think they need to go a little further to force the R0 below 1. ( Only China have achieved this so far )

Message so far:

Stay at Home
Protect the NHS
Save Lives

Fantastic message. Simple and Effective, but I fear not enough to beat this virus.

Changes and reasons:

1. Limit the number of supermarket visits per household to one per week. We need food, but need to avoid contact with people outside the household as much as possible. One trip per week would reduce the number of people we come into contact with in a week. ( one person per household at each shop is not enough )

( Stamford university graduate, logical modelling in my opinion )

(Taxi drivers being personal shoppers would help for the population who are at higher risk, but communicated locally as government need to keep message simple )

2. Update the general guidance on social distancing. The science points to 4-6m from a cough, and 7-8m with sneezing. No need to communicate the science, but tweak message to be we need to do all we can to keep the maximum distance possible when close to one another.

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2763852 ( Professor from MIT so trusted )

3. Get everyone to cover their mouths when they leave their house. The R0 in countries that have a lot of the population wearing masks is lower; fact.

( Impossible for UK government to say we should all wear a mask when going out as there are not enough masks for the NHS staff. The press would ask very challenging questions if the government say cover mouths, but don't wear a mask. Government need to appear to be in control and keep us calm; so a rock and a hard place spring to mind. However, they need to take the bold step, and say it. USA doing it by Trump being ambivalent and his wife saying it; which is a softer method, but still heard by majority of population, and the closest person to the president as possible ) A lot of thought needs to go into how they communicate the message in the UK, but it must be done.

My take on the firmer message:

Leave the home for a grocery shop once a week ( point 1 )
Protect the NHS by covering your mouth when you leave the house ( point 3 )
Save lives by following the above ( could be improved )

( point 2 is covered by the action from point 3 )


 
Posted : 10/04/2020 10:56 pm
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Oldagedpredator,

Absolutely. The decline in China could be because they have much tighter restrictions. It could be that they're wearing masks or it could be for some other reason that we just don't know yet.

The only thing for absolute certain is that we just don't know. Which leaves us with the choice:

Do we want to try and out guess the virus? Or do we adopt the precautionary principle?

The government is trying the first option, there's little we can do about that. As individuals we can choose to take the second option.


 
Posted : 10/04/2020 10:58 pm
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I don't think we should base anything on china. I doubt they are being truthful and we just don't live under the same restrictions and surveillance culture as they do.

It's just not a valid comparison.


 
Posted : 10/04/2020 11:08 pm
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Neiloxford

You're too sensible for this forum and this thread in particular. This thread is for speculating about reasons not to wear a mask. It's full of links to sites where highly educated scientists are explaining why covering your face in public might not be good for you.

Whatever you do, don't listen to those people like nurses and doctors [and windbags like me] who try and explain why you wearing a mask might be good for others.

Now away with you.


 
Posted : 10/04/2020 11:13 pm
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QUOTE:

oldagedpredator

I’m curious about the local authority data. Mainly what Cumbria is like – one of the papers had the county as having highest infection rate outside London.

https://covid19cct.shinyapps.io/covid19cct/

Dividing the number of confirmed cases by the population of Cumbria suggests Cumbria is having a tough time vs the rest of the UK.


 
Posted : 10/04/2020 11:15 pm
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?

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Posted : 10/04/2020 11:30 pm
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Firstly, good news Drac and may it continue.

Mask worn by me when out, ffp3. Have to reuse it but it's sprayed with 70% IPA after use and I'm very careful of its use. I rotate it with another ffp3 I have.

It's put on with just washed hands and not touched or removed until I'm home and hands are thoroughly washed. It's then sprayed with IPA and my hands are washed again.

Wearing a mask makes me very cautious and is a reminder that even with the sun out these are NOT NORMAL TIMES. The mask sends a message to others and is a reminder to me. "I'm taking this seriously, even if you choose not to."

Wearing a mask is common sense to me.

If anyone can point out a negative I'm willing to listen.


 
Posted : 10/04/2020 11:53 pm
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Poopscoop,

You spray your mask with beer? This could catch on!


 
Posted : 11/04/2020 12:01 am
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If anyone can point out a negative I’m willing to listen.

Only down side would be the general public causing issues with the supply chain, making it more difficult for hospitals to get theirs. otherwise no problem, but if 66 million people all of a sudden want masks then that's a big requirement at the minute, if you want to wear one crack on though.

It's not something we need to enforce though.

Wearing a mask makes me very cautious and is a reminder that even with the sun out these are NOT NORMAL TIMES. The mask sends a message to others and is a reminder to me. “I’m taking this seriously, even if you choose not t

My barely leaving the house and staying the f away from people sends the same message.


 
Posted : 11/04/2020 12:07 am
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Seosamh 77

Yes. let's not base anything on China, lets do it our way. Let's just get coronavirus done!

Population of China approx 20 times that of UK, Death count? About even. Even if they're lying, do you think they're lying x 20 ?

In the absence of global sport, we're all playing the Death Count Cup right now. At the moment it looks like we're in Silver, looks likes the Yanks are running away with Gold and are too far ahead to be caught. The Germans, strangely enough seem to be in poor form at the moment and are way off the medal positions.


 
Posted : 11/04/2020 12:09 am
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They could well be, who knows.

And who's saying lets get it done? I'm all for the long hall on this.. You can try and put words in my mouth, but you'd be doing it mistakenly.


 
Posted : 11/04/2020 12:10 am
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