Let’s just get coronavirus done!
Where did he say that? Seriously, quit yer shite.
Difficult to have faith in a government with a rampent borisbot tweeting away like that. Am I along in finding that quite sinister?
Only down side would be the general public causing issues with the supply chain, making it more difficult for hospitals to get theirs.
That is exactly why the authorities are not enthusiastic about recommending masks.
Nobeerinthefridge,
It isn't what you say, It's what is said. [Winston Churchill quote,]
OK, Maybe China is lying x 20, my point is they're wearing masks and have managed to tackle the virus. We're not wearing masks and our numbers are going through the roof. Might even reach the China x 20 figure before we're done so just think about that in percentage terms.
I hold China entirely responsible for the outbreak, criticised them for not shutting the wet meat markets and don't fully trust them when they say they've got rid of it entirely either.
I just think the UK approach is complete madness.
Intelligence chatter is that China underplayed the actual death rate by a factor of 15-40 times - which would put them on 45k to 120k deaths and point to it starting months before they’ve currently acknowledged.
Even based on the facts available in the public domain China identified the virus in Mid December and only informed the WHO on 17th January - 2 days after the UK’s patient zero contracted covid at a ski resort in Austria.
It had spread to many countries before the WHO were even informed.
Mask worn by me when out, ffp3. Have to reuse it but it’s sprayed with 70% IPA after use and I’m very careful of its use. I rotate it with another ffp3 I have.
Probably not a good idea.
http://www.imcclinics.com/english/index.php/news/view?id=83
"The disinfection method of spraying alcohol on the mask will destroy the electrostatic absorption of the mask, causing filtering efficiency of the mask lowering below 95%."
Obviously that link requires you to trust what the Chinese have to say on the matter.
Even based on the facts available in the public domain China identified the virus in Mid December and only informed the WHO on 17th January – 2 days after the UK’s patient zero contracted covid at a ski resort in Austria.
It was reported as a unknown virus to WHO 31st December 2019. No? The news had already got out even before that of course, by people in the medical and scientific community who thought the official response was too slow.
Where do you think the ‘19’ comes from in ‘COVID-19’ or ‘2019-nCoV’ if the disease was hushed up ‘till 2020?
All the talk of infections earlier than December is conjecture, no? But likely. The numbers you’re using are just made up though.
Seosamh 77
Apologies for putting words in your mouth, you're right not to trust China obvs.
Just because they're a lying bunch doesn't mean that masks aren't a good idea, that's what I thought you were suggesting.
Have you done the sums on what everyone wearing masks would be? ie what quantity would be required on a daily/weekly/monthly basis, and when your campaign does come to fruition, what percentage of those numbers will be buying up medical grade equipent, cause you know plenty will, even if you tell them a home made cloth mask will do the job.
And ultimately what effect will that have on NHS supplies?
The idea is sound in an ideal world. But the practicality of it is what would concern me...
Mind the great bog roll run of March 2020, do we really want that happening to medical grade PPE?
This is also before we get into issues of people misusing the equipment and a false sense of security becoming an issue..
To those who are wearing masks and taking extra care to avoid contamination, are you going to continue these measures post lockdown in the hope that you'll avoid infection completely?
The Germans, strangely enough
Nice.
bigdugsbaws
Member
To those who are wearing masks and taking extra care to avoid contamination, are you going to continue these measures post lockdown in the hope that you’ll avoid infection completely?
One day at a time. A new world is evolving here and we are all playing catch up.
On top of that, as the sole carer for my mother if she gets the virus it'll have come from me. No-one else enters the house. That focuses the mind somewhat.
a false sense of security
I think this is potentially the biggest issue, given the demonstrably (hopefully accounted for in the modelling) lack of understanding/compliance on the part of some people currently.
seosamh77,
Fair points, priority should be given to NHS and care home staff obvs. This might be a factor in why the govt aren't encouraging them. as there's limited supply.
What I can't get my head round is that my other half is in Kenya atm and has no problem getting hold of masks and sanitiser, top of the range masks aren't cheap [£15 quid] but theres wide availability of excellent, 4 layer, high thread count masks, they're being made in schools and community centres etc. They look like artworks, exquisitely made and reckoned to be almost as good as top quality masks, certainly better than standard surgical masks. Also they're not having the same problems acquiring PPE and testing kits that we are here. What the hell is going on here in the UK?
Edit:
Maybe it's because they are much more used to dealing with epidemics and nasty diseases than we have here and thus maintain higher stock levels of PPE and masks etc. Or maybe it's because they don't have Boris in Charge. I really don't know?
I'd have a wild stab at 189 known infections from 5,278 tests (3.5%), and only 7 people dead with only 2 people on the serious critical, opposed to 73,758 known infections from 316,836 tests (23%), and 8,958 people dead with 1,559 people on the serious critical list.
It hasn't really hit Africa yet. Hopefully it doesn't.
If you look at how the virus is travelling around the world, it's obvious it's the most connected places in the world that are getting hit the hardest first, there is a certain element, at least initially cause who knows where things will end, of security from obscurity, it's why there's a disparity within even the country level, with the likes of London taking the brunt here, new york, northern italy etc.
So fingers crossed for Kenya, hopefully they are preparing themselves just incase.
Wild... 🙁
January 11 - 1
February 10 - 1,018
March 19 - 10,030
March 25 - 21,283
March 28 - 30,863
March 31 - 42,320
April 2 - 53,189
April 4 - 64,708
April 6 - 74,768
April 7 - 82,063
April 9 - 95,714
April 10 - 102,687
They look like artworks, exquisitely made and reckoned to be almost as good as top quality masks, certainly better than standard surgical masks
Surgical Level 3 masks offer 98% protection I’m not sure what you mean that these are better as they’re almost as good as top quality?
Question, on the ITU wards, why does lying on your chest help the COVID patients breathe better?
I just think the UK approach is complete madness.
You're not the only one!
They look like artworks, exquisitely made and reckoned to be almost as good as top quality masks, certainly better than standard surgical masks
Surgical Level 3 masks offer 98% protection I’m not sure what you mean that these are better as they’re almost as good as top quality?
Sure they are . Tested by Africas most rigorous testing facility , in a plant that exceeds ISO and BRC manufacturing standards and quality checked by a 3rd pary auditor to the highest of standards OR they are a few old T shirts layered up and coloured in with a sharpie marker
Whilst mooching about La Republicas site I found a recently dated article about Iceland although there’s nothing new in the content.
What I did find was mention of a German study in the town of Gangelt.
A team at the University of Bonn has tested a randomised sample of 1,000 residents of the town of Gangelt in the north-west of the country, one of the epicentres of the outbreak in Germany. The study found that two per cent of the population currently had the virus and that 14 per cent were carrying antibodies suggesting that they had already been infected – whether or not they experienced any symptoms. Eliminating an overlap between the two groups, the team concluded that 15 per cent of the town have been infected with the virus.
Haven’t yet found the actual study.
I believe lying on your front takes the weight off of the lungs which are mostly at the rear of the chest cavity thereby making breathing easier
Simple explanation - Proning (patients face down) allows more lung surface area be used for oxygen transfer.
Edit - it's been used for ages in hard to ventilate people, a right ballache to perform on intubated people - usually about 6 staff involved to do safely and not pull stuff out as you flip them.
"Prone positioning can improve oxygenation owing to several mechanisms that improve V′/Q′, in general, and consequently cause a reduction in physiological shunt. These include increased lung volume, redistribution of perfusion, recruitment of dorsal lung regions and a more homogeneous distribution of ventilation.
https://erj.ersjournals.com ›"
Question, on the ITU wards, why does lying on your chest help the COVID patients breathe better?
A question I'm so intrigued by - is it improved breathing or improved oxygen intake? Could it help people with less severe breathing issues?
Something I'd never heard of before
Get the kettle on. For anyone interested in historical precedents, check this out:
http://www.historyandpolicy.org/
For all those wanting a public enquiry into all this - which will cost millions we don't have - do you want an enquiry so lessons can be learnt and better planning and resourcing in place for next time, or do you want to identify people to "blame" so that the lawyers can jump in and get rich?
A public enquiry for the thousands of people who have lost their lives.
A public enquiry to hold those accountable who have made decisions not based on sound advice but based on other sources and advice from unqualified advisors.
Sorry to go off topic a bit, but I wanted to pose a question here that was mooted time last night. We’ve discussed across threads that “life” will likely change in the future as we know, but I haven’t heard anyone discuss the atypical mentally of popping into work whilst sick.
Now, most people know that going to work with a shitty cold is likely to spread it around but also most people felt implied pressure from their employer or a misplaced sense of responsibility to do so. Surely in the post C19 era this will change hugely? Obviously in The immediate future people will be worried about C19 resurfacing but 2 or 5 years from now surely we’ll all be more cautious. And if that’s true for offices and places of work, what about Travel? Will, measurement by apps be a commonplace prerequisite for using public transport? This is a big potential step change.
Question, on the ITU wards, why does lying on your chest help the COVID patients breathe better?
A question I’m so intrigued by – is it improved breathing or improved oxygen intake? Could it help people with less severe breathing issues?
Something I’d never heard of before
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/03/200324202056.htm
A doctor when asked the same question just responded it was 'for anatomical reasons'?
"It is only a small number of patients, but our study shows that many patients did not re-open their lungs under high positive pressure and may be exposed to more harm than benefit in trying to increase the pressure," said Chun Pan, MD, also a professor with Zhongda Hospital, School of Medicine, Southeast University. "By contrast, the lung improves when the patient is in the prone position.
Really hoping it is relapses/erratic test results but if it is a reactivation like the cold sore virus then that's a bit of a problem. A preliminary report is being released next week.
Remdesivir compassionate use trial published. And should be public domain
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2007016?query=RP
I hope it works, and this is the best data available, but there is a reason we conduct randomised controller trials. Even historic control data would be helpful in this setting.
There is no virology data in the trial, this is simply a documentation of how patients who received the drug fared. At least they gave a loading dose. I estimated they needed a lot more, so am keenly awaiting the proper trial.
Obviously in The immediate future people will be worried about C19 resurfacing but 2 or 5 years from now surely we’ll all be more cautious. And if that’s true for offices and places of work, what about Travel?
In my opinion, sadly, there’ll be no great change, in 5 years people will have forgotten the severity of all this, hygiene will be as ever, the nhs will still be starved of cash and all those we are relying on now treated with disdain again.
A public enquiry for the thousands of people who have lost their lives.
A public enquiry to hold those accountable who have made decisions not based on sound advice but based on other sources and advice from unqualified advisors.
100% understand people's anger, but not sure this is possible? You have a 'do nothing' position of half or a million people dead (prob many, many more with an overrun NHS). The action we've taken will have vastly reduced this.
So how on earth do we work out how we 'should' have done it and who is 'wrong'? That analysis is prob just an unreliable.
But yes, a global review of responses is what we need with concrete recommendations on pandemic response.
I agree Kilo - we were discussing this last night at home, I think it will be a matter of months before people forget about the 'frontline heroes' and start returning to more selfish ways - maybe I'm too cynical?
I'd like to think that now so many have transitioned to home working that those ill/ suspect ill but feel well enough to work could just home work until not contagious - it's been established it can work. Would hopefully reduce presenteeism and spread of bugs that we got prior to current lockdown when people felt had to go in even if ill. Guess a lot depends on employers and them trusting staff, not needing to see bums on seats to think work is happening?
This privacy-friendly contract tracing protocol would seem to be a good part of the solution. I would install something like this for my family.
The figures in this Sky news article are staggering, I don't think simply throwing more money at the NHS is the best way forward, the stats for the section on obesity are an eye opener.
https://news.sky.com/nhs-in-numbers
People have various opinions on the wearing of masks. But we know what opinions are like. You don’t need to have an opinion on this, you just have to ask yourself – ‘What’s the downside?’
Back on the old mask subject..
Its been pointed out many times that the downside is that a mask that is not changed regularly (Ie every 30 min) can actually harbour germs you are trying to protect against..
If there were enough proper masks for everyone the I'd agree we should use them. But there aren't and there are people than need them far more than you and I.
A public enquiry for the thousands of people who have lost their lives.
A public enquiry to hold those accountable who have made decisions not based on sound advice but based on other sources and advice from unqualified advisors.
So a pointless expensive blame game that will hamper genuine efforts to learn form this as everyone involved will be worried about their own future.
Another opportunity for the professionally offended and political agitators to grand stand.
High profile public enquirers in this country have become an emotional media circus to allow people to shout at the sky, they don't make any difference and often stop people grieving properly.
do you want an enquiry so lessons can be learnt and better planning and resourcing in place for next time
Obviously. The whole point of any enquiry is to make sure that you're better prepared if a similar thing happens in the future. That doesn't mean you shouldn't hold people to account, but primarily it's about learning lessons. I'd have thought that was pretty clear.
Edit: there's a difference between something being a 'blame game' and a fair, evidence-driven accounting of mistakes. If you don't look at things in detail, then you don't learn. And part of living in a democracy is that people are accountable for their actions. That doesn't mean you have a lynch mob mentality, but equally clear negligence shouldn't just be swept under the carpet.
With the benifit of hindsight anything is possible.
See also the movie sully for a perfect illustration of why hindsight is dangerous in these investigations.
Are you optimistic?
Not at that dose. The hydroxychloroquine data is, however, sound and conducted in a controlled trial. I’d take that instead, personally based on available evidence.
See also the movie sully for a perfect illustration of why hindsight is dangerous in these investigations.
Indeed. I went back to read the investigation report based on that and it was very informative. As is always the case, the source material sets things out in much more detail and things are always more complex that the headlines.
With the benifit of hindsight anything is possible.
See also the movie sully for a perfect illustration of why hindsight is dangerous in these investigations.
Perhaps in some cases, but otoh do we just move on with banal 'lessons were learned' platitudes? Should no failure ever be investigated?
So how on earth do we work out how we ‘should’ have done it and who is ‘wrong’? That analysis is prob just an unreliable.
There will be another global pandemic in the next 50 years, learning lessons from this one is necessary to be more prepared in future.
But yes, a global review of responses is what we need with concrete recommendations on pandemic response.
The global bodies aren’t the tools they once were, sadly. Populism uses mistrust of them to gain power at the national level. Depressing but true.