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I just don’t understand how the figures in Wuhan are so low.
they locked people in their houses for 2 months.
he’s some sort of tough guy
It’s really taken off though… loads of people saying how lucky we are to have such a “strong man” in charge, a “fighter”… rather than wishing for someone with better judgment.
There will always be people cherry picking a view that matches their previous views on Boris. Rough and tumble Boris with the jolly japes, cutting through the red tape and sticking it to the establishment, he can do anything. He's the greatest golfer you know, once shot five successive hole-in-ones. He is an international concert standard pianist, didn't you know? Plus, when he was young, he was a champion 100m sprinter, and he has obtained four PhDs. Or was that Kim Jong Un? I forget now.
It’s really taken off though… loads of people saying how lucky we are to have such a “strong man” in charge, a “fighter”… rather than wishing for someone with better judgment.
Like who and what would they do differently ?
Another update from Stockholm...
Life goes on. I know people in retail that are seeing a huge drop in customers and that is not really surprising as people get more used to both social distancing (already a Swedish practice, just now a little bit more distance) and the fact that they should be at home unless they have to be.
However, people are still meeting each other and I have found out that some gyms have reopened, which I find really bizarre. GF and I are sticking to running the local trails and trying to stay away from other people but, on the way back two days ago, saw a group of about 15 people going out for a group run.
I'm watching the stats with a combination of interest and fear, hoping that they stay low and the trust that our prime minister has placed in us will not be misplaced. Stockholm for sure seems to be an outlier, people just don't seem to get it, maybe more the younger generation that see themselves as low risk or more able to survive it. We've been asked to thinking like responsible adults and I cannot say for sure that, like the UK, a few people will not invalidate that theory.
Like who and what would they do differently ?
Not go one TV announcing that you're shaking everyone's hands, when you're aware that thousands of people had already died from a virus that is transmitted in such a way?. Just a thought.
Optimistic: Primary epidemic in the UK will be over by July. Controls will be in place over the Summer Holidays. Staged return to some semblance of normality during that six week period. Can't see much further or clearer than that. I'd expect some sort of travel restrictions over the summer too (International), so hope for nice weather. BTW these are only my opinions. I make no recommendations, merely provide analysis.
Even more optimistic - I'll be back on the trike training for the national 12hr 😀 . Well I can dream. Started a course of prophylactic antibiotics to protect from potential lung pneumonia (COVID DAY13/14 now). Felt a bit better yesterday and not so light-headed. A little breathless up and down the stairs, but small steps. Son1 shook it off easier than a cold!
What I’m trying to do is live, as much as I can, in the now – or at least the next week or so.
I've had two major injuries in the last 5 years and I've spent months "Focusing on what I can do rather than dwelling on what I can't " Yes, it's the right approach, but I'm afraid I'm sick of it. I was due a bloody summer of fun. I feel I've done my fair share of stiff upper lip and I want to stamp my feet and whine a bit. (I'm also aware that other people are really suffering in horrific and tragic ways over this, not just missing fun with their family.)
Until a treatment is available we’re going to have periods of lock down interrupted by periods of relative freedom. This isn’t pessimistic, and pretending that it’s not going to be this isn’t optimism it’s fairystories.
Well a cheap and plentiful antibody test would free a fair few people up and it was looking like that would be much quicker than a treatment, less so now.
they locked people in their houses for 2 months.
Yes, and as of last week being 'out of lockdown' meant being allowed to leave the house for 2 hours to go shopping. I strongly suspect what's being reported as the 'end of lockdown' is still pretty draconian. Plus they lie about the numbers for flu, why wouldn't they lie about their numbers for CV?
So in order to cheer myself up a bit... I can carry a kayak 400m from my front door to water. I'm 100pc sure me doing that alone is kosher because it would be exercise, I'd paddle at pace and not faff around. So far so good. What about Family Kayaking with 4yo and 7yo? The 4yo will be in my boat but not be reliably paddling. He'll be out in the fresh air and active, but he won't be strictly exercising. The 7yo will be paddling her own boat, but instead of 'pressing on' there will be much pottering about, look at water vole holes, that sort of stuff. Frankly I think that's as much exercise as a family walk or cycle ride which also involves a lot of top start. (Or dog walking which seems to involve a lot of standing around). Of course family kayaking is still exercise for the mind. How far does the panel think I can legitimately take the Kayaking?
Of course I'm pretty sure that kayaking won't *look* like exercise to my neighbours so that perhaps stops it stone dead, but if this is going on over the entire summer what my neighbours think will be less important than my sanity.
Because they had an actual lock down, we’re reducing/slowing contact and spread, not trying to stop it completely.
I rode through Harrogate yesterday afternoon, traffic wasn't vastly different from any other weekday. Was everyone a key worker? Not bloody likely, given the number of families and amount of grey hair that I could see, mixed in with your typical obese David Brent taking his X5 out "for a spin".
Coronavirus was already going to thin out the Honda-driving population in Harrogate.
The police have pretty much given up enforcing the lockdown in North Yorkshire and are targeting the tiny fraction of people driving or riding in beauty spots (I agree, they should be at home but the actual risk of infection spread is minimal) and ignoring the gangs of kids riding up and down the Nidderdale Greenway, which is often busy with other cyclists and walkers at the best of times.
This sucks. Effective house arrest for months.
If you have a road bike, use it. The roads are amazingly quiet, and there's very little chance of spreading or catching anything while riding empty roads.
Optimistic: Primary epidemic in the UK will be over by July. Controls will be in place over the Summer Holidays. Staged return to some semblance of normality during that six week period. Can’t see much further or clearer than that. I’d expect some sort of travel restrictions over the summer too (International), so hope for nice weather. BTW these are only my opinions. I make no recommendations, merely provide analysis.
Same conclusion here
Italy 33000 (29400 to 37400) deaths
Also getting a similar number from my own modelling, although this doesnt account for any secondary inpact from when restrictions are relaxed.
Regarding summer holidays I noticed this morning that FCO advice has changed to an indefinite travel restriction
The other thing with framing this as a 'war' is that it changes the discussion from it being a disgrace that doctors, nurses and other frontline staff are dying doing their jobs, to it being acceptable because that's what happens in war. Now let's all clap.
Wtf Stockholm.
Another update from Stockholm…
Sorry, I've not been following this thread so don't know what's already been covered, but Sweden (& Brazil) are following a "Herd Immunity" approach; the idea seems to be that if enough people showing mild or no symptoms infect a large proportion of others who go on to develop mild or no symptoms then the "herd immunity" will rise to a point where the virus no longer becomes viable; hospital admissions are suppose to be manageable. There's a fair amount about herd immunity on the net (along with a fair bit of opinion that Sweden is heading for a catastrophe.
he’s some sort of tough guy
It’s really taken off though… loads of people saying how lucky we are to have such a “strong man” in charge, a “fighter”… rather than wishing for someone with better judgment.
Can't stand the man and think that we're 3 months behind the curve because he wasn't paying attention but his popularity is really surging. I'm afraid that I'm also rapidly becoming a cynical old git and even got to the point of wondering whether it wasn't all stage managed to boost his popularity and cover over the balls up (admitted to hospital "as a precaution", admitted to ICU "as a precaution" & and I'm sure I saw a report stating that he was on a lot less oxygen than those usually admitted to ICU, also described as in "good spirits" which isn't the usual description of someone fighting for their lives in ICU). The whole things does now seem to be on a war footing (along with propaganda) and I think Boris sees himself as a sort of Churchill figure. I'm quite possibly totally wrong though.
I just don’t understand how the figures in Wuhan are so low.
they locked people in their houses for 2 months.
They're also a controlling communist state that's "liberal" with the truth and forced the doctor who originally highlighted Covid19 to sign a confession admitting that he was lying (he subsequently died).
China may well have everything under control now but equally we need to be careful at taking what they say at face value (I'd also be interested to to know what they've been up to in Hong Kong during the last few months).
The Downing Street press release have been bizarre almost patronising like you'd speak to a small child. Into hospital in the early evening as a 'precaution', into ICU as a 'precaution', in 'high spirits' on oxygen, 'strong constitution', 'played rugby'. 'fighter'. Plz. I can handle bad news.
Sorry, I’ve not been following this thread so don’t know what’s already been covered, but Sweden (& Brazil) are following a “Herd Immunity” approach; the idea being that if enough people showing mild or no symptoms infect a large proportion of others who go on to develop mild or no symptoms then the “herd immunity” will rise to a point where the virus no longer becomes viable. There’s a fair amount about herd immunity on the net (along with a fair bit of opinion that Sweden is heading for a catastrophe.
This was the UK approach at first but it proved to be politically unpalatable and practically unviable because we didn't have the NHS capacity to deal with it.
The inconvenient truth is a viable vaccine may be years away so herd immunity might be the only solution unless we want to spend years in lock-down, I do wonder if we can ever eradicate it completely just by locking down everyone all over the world. After all, it started when 3 people in a wet market in China caught it and 6 months later 1.4 million people have it and 80k are dead.
Maybe Sweden has a lot more headroom in their Healthcare system.
What's the real 'exit strategy'? eradicate it from the UK, maybe? China and Korea might just do it, but it just takes a single case, someone arriving on ship / plane or riding a Donkey and a few months later we're back here.
I remember back 3 weeks ago, no one in Government said "We're going into lock-down until it's been eradicated" they said "We're going to flatten the curve until the NHS can cope with it" There's something like 10k extra bed now in the UK. I wouldn't be surprised if in a few weeks, when the numbers fall enough they announce they're reopening the schools, shops, pubs etc and we go back to a "people with symptoms should self-isolate" standing. Especially if the anti-body tests project has failed.
I saw a report stating that he was on a lot less oxygen than those usually admitted to ICU, also described as in “good spirits” which isn’t the usual description of someone fighting for their lives in ICU
4 litres that’s pretty normal for an ICU and yes “Good Spirits” or “stable” which they’ve also used is fairly normal talk.
This was the UK approach at first but it proved to be politically unpalatable and practically unviable because we didn’t have the NHS capacity to deal with it.
No it wasn’t the plans have always been available to view, they also made it clear in media reports. They wanted to control the spread the best they could then when numbers start to rise perform a lockdown that would be reviewed weekly. This has been discussed about 120 pages back.
Interesting comment in the Guardian saying this isn't a war, there's no enemy to fight. Instead, we have to look after each other and care for the sick - this is love, not war.
I like that thought.
Also, and this is only me trying to understand stuff my Wife was saying (Nurse)
"ITU beds" data should be taken with a pinch of salt. ITU wards are reasonably rare, but there's nothing 'that' fancy about ITU beds, mostly the same equipment as normal ward beds with 1-to-1 nursing and of course, the famous Ventilator.
If you install one of the new striped down Ventilators they're producing onto a normal ward bed and a screen to separate it, it's probably good enough to care for a Covid patient, but is it an ITU bed? I supposed that depends on who's counting.
Lockdown will most likely be relaxed in degrees according to the evidence base, maybe even re-tightened if hospital admissions get out of control again. Like a dance. I'd hope that pubs were one of the last priorities.
Sweden (& Brazil) are following a “Herd Immunity” approach
Every nation in the world is following a herd immunity approach. The only difference is how they're slowing down the number of casualties so the hospitals can cope. Sweden are adopting a voluntary approach, everywhere else is making more formal restrictions. Of course if the news today is true China now have less restrictions than Sweden and a population with no resistance.
No it wasn’t the plans have always been available to view, they also made it clear in media reports. They wanted to control the spread the best they could then when numbers start to rise perform a lockdown that would be reviewed weekly. This has been discussed about 120 pages back.
+1
China may well have everything under control now but equally we need to be careful at taking what they say at face value
...and if it's true they no longer have restrictions what happens the first time a jet load of people from New York or Lombardy turns up? The virus will kick off again. I suspect there *are* restrictions and our press aren't properly reporting them. That was certainly the case last week when we were told the lock down was over in China - and then on the same day a reporter was saying they were allowed out for 2 hours a day to go shopping.
I’d hope that pubs were one of the last priorities.
What about walking a dog to the pub. 😂
vaccine may be years away so herd immunity might be the only solution
A vaccine is just a (really really good) way to achieve herd immunity. Herd immunity is still the end goal.
Really good article here about scientific advice recived by government from SAGE
but it very curiosly omits to mention the 3rd group that feeds into SAGE- SPI-B the behavioural scientists
SAGE relies on external science advice and on advice from expert groups. During COVID-19 this includes the:
New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group (NERVTAG)
Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling (SPI-M) (Department for Health and Social Care)
Independent Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Behaviours (SPI-B)
These groups consider the scientific evidence and feed in their consensus conclusions to SAGE.
also Fergusson was on C4 saying 400,000 could die in mid feb
(sorry Daily Fail link)
What about walking a dog to the pub. 😂
Should be fine provided you are simultaneously exercising and purchasing groceries.
Ahhhh, the pub.....
We walk past our local on our daily excercise.
I give it a little pat and tell it Daddy will be back soon....
4 litres that’s pretty normal for an ICU
4 l/min ?
Yeah 4 litres a minute.
A vaccine is just a (really really good) way to achieve herd immunity. Herd immunity is still the end goal.
we havent been able to achieve herd immunity from flu, will we be able to from this?
I know we can get to a reasonable level of protetcing the vulnerabe with annual vaccination b4 flu season, but 1000s an still die
If we get CV19 deaths down to 17,000 per year (same as flu) we might take that as an acceptable compromise.
I guess there would be a fair amount of overlap too. It wouldn't be 17,000 additional deaths.
My statistics is far from strong. I have been wondering about mass testing and have a feeling for the problems that might result from a large number of false positives and (likely worse?) false negatives. What sort of accuracy is required for a good standard, or useful standard of test?
If 'natural' herd immunity is the solution then what's the problem? Or to put it another way, if it's the means then what's the end? If the end is to stop people getting infected and dying how is a means that requires people to get infected and die appropriate? Burn the village to save the village?
Mass vaccination is a means to the end of eradicating and/or preventing an epidemic/pandemic. Herd immunity is just a conceptual middle man in that context. It's not the end goal.
we havent been able to achieve herd immunity from flu, will we be able to from this?
Corona mutates about 10 times slower than flu (from the last thing I read on it).
The annual "freshers flu" every october at universities gives an idea about how good herd immunity is at protecting you from your local flu/cold, and how bad it is at protecting unvaccinated healthy 18 y/os from the assymtomatic carriers bringing their local flu from all around the country.
How the far slower mutation affects this model in terms of timescales and distance is a question for the modelling experts.
If ‘natural’ herd immunity is the solution then what’s the problem? Or to put it another way, if it’s the means then what’s the end? If the end is to stop people getting infected and dying how is a means that requires people to get infected and die appropriate? Burn the village to save the village?
You haven’t been paying attention. You need to keep the level of infection below that which the health services can cope with. This reduces the number of unnecessary fatalities. Also isolate those most vulnerable until a vaccine is found.
There is no herd immunity.
The lock downs are in place to slow down the numbers of people going to the hospital at the same time and dying if they can't be treated.
Another way of looking at that is a death calculus. You need to achieve enough deaths from the non-vulnerable to prevent the vulnerable dying.
Herd immunity takes care of itself. The strategy is a managed rate of infection.
Exactly. You could let a 100,000 people all need hospital assistance to have a chance of getting though it in a week or you could have 5,000 people over 20 weeks. The 5,000 is clearly going to be a lot more manageable than the 100,00...
I guess that at present there are just too many unknowns, one of which is whether a vaccine is even possible (which haven't managed it for the common cold, which is often pointed out when 'end of the world' type pandemics are discussed). There was even some debate recently as to whether catching & surviving the virus gave you immunity - there were reportedly a couple of cases in China that had been given the all clear following positive tests who had seemingly gone on to re-acquire the virus (again probably too many unknowns); I haven't heard it discussed again so perhaps immunity has been confirmed.
As to natural herd immunity I guess that depends on the cost in lives; Sweden seems to be assuming that the mortality rate would be 'acceptable' (pretty tough to define 'acceptable' if you lose someone close to you) but this may backfire.
Look a puppy !!!!!!
which haven’t managed it for the common cold, which is often pointed out when ‘end of the world’ type pandemics are discussed
And as pointed out it’s because there’s no point for something that gives you the sniffles.
haven’t managed it for the common cold
Which common cold?
I thought there was >200 viruses that caused it.
I’m afraid that I’m also rapidly becoming a cynical old git and even got to the point of wondering whether it wasn’t all stage managed to boost his popularity and cover over the balls up (admitted to hospital “as a precaution”, admitted to ICU “as a precaution” & and I’m sure I saw a report stating that he was on a lot less oxygen than those usually admitted to ICU, also described as in “good spirits” which isn’t the usual description of someone fighting for their lives in ICU).
no 10 crisis message management is bizarre, I don't want to know his 02 sats or his bp but I still get the feeling we're are going be seeing this....
which haven’t managed it for the common cold, which is often pointed out when ‘end of the world’ type pandemics are discussed
And as pointed out it’s because there’s no point for something that gives you the sniffles.
Fair enough, I'm well outside my areas of expertise (if I even have any) so are you saying that a vaccine for the common cold is achievable? I'd have thought that there'd be enough work hours lost to it for development cost to be financially viable.
-- Edit --
Which common cold?
I thought there was >200 viruses that caused it.
I didn't know that (quite an interesting [url= https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/why-havent-we-cured-the-common-cold-yet/ ]New Scientist[/url] article here).
Out of interest, what exactly is a 'strain' is it a distinctly separate virus or something that's come about through mutation?
If we get CV19 deaths down to 17,000 per year (same as flu) we might take that as an acceptable compromise.
It's not as simple as that - what happens if the death rate matches but the number of people who don't make full recovery is far far greater or the length of time people are ill for is greater.
Do we also really want to put people through the trauma of it? Flu doesn't wipe out our medical key workers at the same rate. I'm not convinced we want to pay the price in key workers to achieve flu level deaths.
so are you saying that a vaccine for the common cold is achievable?
We don't need one.Your body is so good at fighting the variants of the common cold virus that you response to them is v light, and the side effects (head ache, runny nose etc etc) are better treated with other (read cheaper and already existing) drugs.