What about walking a dog to the pub. 😂
What about Pub rides?..
Do we also really want to put people through the trauma of it? Flu doesn’t wipe out our medical key workers at the same rate. I’m not convinced we want to pay the price in key workers to achieve flu level deaths.
We may not want to. We may have little choice. We are still hoping for a vaccine. We may have to maintain higher ITU levels. But we also know that the current situation is untenable in the long term.
We will eventually have either a vaccine or passive vaccination (administered antibodies). These will surely be first administed to those most at risk and those most likely to spread infection. After that wider application. We want to start trials of the antibody I am working on within months. Trust me, based on normal drug development timelines, that is remarkable. I can not tell you how fast we are working!
we havent been able to achieve herd immunity from flu, will we be able to from this?
I know we can get to a reasonable level of protetcing the vulnerabe with annual vaccination b4 flu season, but 1000s an still die
People still die of mumps but we have herd immunity to that.
Can I suggest that all the people asking facile questions about herd immunity check out the Operation Ouch episode on this topic. I watched it before Christmas with my daughter, it will clear up a lot of the misunderstandings and bring you all up to the same level as my kids.
I think this is the one or might at least take you to it:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/newsround/50000690
What about walking a dog to the pub. 😂
Only if you have a freight or medical exemption
We will eventually have either a vaccine or passive vaccination (administered antibodies). These will surely be first administed to those most at risk and those most likely to spread infection. After that wider application. We want to start trials of the antibody I am working on within months. Trust me, based on normal drug development timelines, that is remarkable. I can not tell you how fast we are working!
Thanks!
We know a vaccine is over a year away.
How about the "antibody" you are working on? Is that the antibody in plasma 'thing'? How scalable is it? Assuming it works well how soon before it's available (best case)?
@outofbreath - I think we now know that Cummings et al watch "Operation Ouch"
https://www.bbc.co.uk/newsround/50000690/a >
Can I suggest that all the people asking facile questions about herd immunity
oof, I think there's a lot of misunderstanding about Covid-19 that's from media reporting it as a "new flu strain" which gives people a false sense of what this actually is coupled with the fact that it's clear that folk are't clear about immune response and so on.
oof, I think there’s a lot of misunderstanding about Covid-19 that’s from media reporting it as a “new flu strain”
No, there’s a of people assuming it’s ‘just flu’ thankfully that has pretty much dropped off.
I think the easiest way that we will be released from lockdown is if some palliative drugs are found that reduce the disease and damage caused to minor levels, we need to hope that this is from already approved drugs that can have additional indicated use approved, if not then the process will be much longer as safety data will be required.
Trials are underway on some drugs.
Question from a idiot - I’ve just read that schools may be reopening two weeks after Easter. Considering younger kids in particular appear to be walking biological weapons is this not a crazy idea? My six year old brings home a new illness on a weekly basis. Colds, vomiting, the shits etc.
We’ve also been informed that our two and a half year old daughter is in the high risk category and needs to be kept under lockdown for twelve weeks as of last Friday. Not keen on sending my son to school considering this.
Apologies if I’m being a bit thick here.
I think the easiest way that we will be released from lockdown is if some palliative drugs are found that reduce the disease and damage caused to minor levels,
Presumably aim for that, work on a vaccine - prepare the infrastructure for vaccination in advance - increase NHS resources as much as possible to give more headway for dealing with critical cases, plus care for non-covid patients safely, and look at how you can most effectively shield the most vulnerable. Test for anti-bodies and, if immunity exists, look at the best way of releasing those people back into 'normal life'. Or not, but at least you have a clearer picture of the historic scale of infection.
Aside from a vaccine, none of those is going to sort things on their own, but if you can combine them, you at least have a little more scope and fewer people, hopefully die. Obviously in true STW style I am a mountain biker rather than a scientist, but a fair bit of this looks like common sense. I'm sure someone will be along shortly to explain exactly why it isn't though 🙂
Question from a idiot – I’ve just read that schools may be reopening two weeks after Easter.
You know more than schools do then!!
Where did you read that?
I’ve just read that schools may be reopening two weeks after Easter. Considering younger kids in particular appear to be walking biological weapons is this not a crazy idea? My six year old brings home a new illness on a weekly basis. Colds, vomiting, the shits etc.
For key workers kids only if necessary I’ve not heard otherwise.
Question from a idiot – I’ve just read that schools may be reopening two weeks after Easter.
Where the hell did you read that? Our schools seem to be assuming they are going back in September
Just read it on news feed on iPhone. Probably just the press speculating. I’ve been avoiding newsfeeds in the main as a lot of them seem to treat everything with a level of sensationalism I find odd. News as entertainment. Especially annoying under current circumstances.
Dracs keyworker comment msy stand, but schools have been open for them throughout anyway.
Question from a idiot
Where did you read that? as it sounds an absolutely bonkers idea to me.
Dracs keyworker comment msy stand, but schools have been open for them throughout anyway.
Yup as discussed yesterday those lazy teachers have even given up their Easter break.
Trust me, based on normal drug development timelines, that is remarkable. I can not tell you how fast we are working
Our main business for the last 15 years or more has been phase 2 clinical trials meetings, We can be going to the same trial meetings for a couple of years or more before they move on to phase 3 or they are abandoned. Of course all those have stopped, we probably won't have any work for months and months because all the resources are being directed at this. Unless you've seen it you can have no idea how long these things normally take and how few compounds ever become an effective medicine. What is happening now is utterly extraordinary, not sure anything like it has ever been attempted. Just like the last war was won as much by people sitting on their arse as those in the front line the same will be true here. Those sacrificing their own lives in the front line are doing it to give the arse sitters time to save the rest of us. So don't forget to clap for them too.
Just realised where it’s from. Seems like idle speculation from a tabloid. Sorry folks, I should have read more carefully before posting.
https://apple.news/ASaL28BVAQ6elBWW1_BaCCA
Wish they would stick to posting properly checked facts as opposed to speculation. It serves no purpose at all. Dickheads. Don’t know why I picked today to decide to look at the newsfeed on the phone.
Where the hell did you read that? Our schools seem to be assuming they are going back in September
I think the red tops have taken the "lockdown to be reviewed on 16th" (as it must be every 3 weeks) and "schools will be one of the first things to go back under the as yet undefined and unscheduled exit plan" and combined the two.
I think the easiest way that we will be released from lockdown is if some palliative drugs are found that reduce the disease and damage caused to minor levels,
Yeah, although an antibody test changes everything and seems even quicker the re-purposing a drug.
How about this for a "sporty" suggestion for how soon we could be out:
https://twitter.com/ProfKarolSikora/status/1247839541890818048
Wish they would stick to posting properly checked facts as opposed to speculation.
Yeah it’s always worth reading past the headline.
an unnamed senior minister said: “We need to be led by the science, of course.
That’s code for here’s some shit we’ve made up.
the wife had a key worker on the phone looking for an open nursery for their child mentioning that they thought some schools were reopening. Don't know where it coming from, perhaps stories of it abroad and assuming it's here too.
just seen this in the daily fail
Downing Street DELAYS decision on ending lockdown: Stay-at-home rules could go on for weeks amid claims coronavirus peak is still a week-and-a-half away - but some ministers hint schools could reopen after Easter
now all makes sense
Some people on this forum are talking about herd immunity as if it's happening (you know who you are), it isn't. Current infection rates even in the hardest hit countries are a fraction of a percent for declared cases and about 1% if you assume real cases are an order of magnitude higher - which is unlikely given the Mulhouse religious meeting in which 2000/2500 were aware they'd been infected, the percentage of people that don't know they've had it is small.
To get herd immunity you are looking at 100 times more misery and suffering than were are seeing now.
The antibody test will be useful but only if sensitive enough, it also assumes people are not stupid with having positive result, plus we don't know if having antibodies will prevent reinfections or prevent transmission
Just took my dog out along the street for my once a day outing. It's near impossible to keep 2 meters apart when a family of 7 on bikes spread out all across the road (which has no pavement) zoom past. Made absolutely no attempt to all move to the same side of the road to give at least 2 meters space..selfish ignorant pricks.
Indeed which is why herd immunity was a non-strategy from the beginning. Herd immunity is just a natural consequence of the fire continuing to burn, assuming immunity is actually retained for a long enough period by individuals. It's no more a policy that King Canute had a policy to control the tide.
Member
declared cases
Aye declared cases, there's no country testing every one of their citizens though.
A week ago the imperial college were estimating this, I'd imagine things have moved on in the last 10 days.
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And we're all only in the first month of this... Many months to go.
If immunity isn't a thing, that's not good, cause lock downs aren't lasting for 12-18 months.
Immunity isn't and never has been a policy, it's just a consequence and a consideration over time.
It also sounds like anti body testing is further away than we'd like too.
Testing is good, as it gives us a picture of what and where it's happening, but that and lock downs aren't going to stop this on their own.
You also talk as if people, like me that understand that immunity is and needs to be a consideration are talking as if we want it just to be let loose through to populations, we don't, that would be crazy.
But in lieu of a miracle and the virus dying out on it's own or a vaccine magically appearing early. Then how to lift restrictions while protecting the most amount of people is still the only game in town.
Cause as I say, lock down isn't lasting forever.
How about this for a “sporty” suggestion for how soon we could be out:
His self-appointed role so far has to be the voice of optimism, convincing people to stay strong because things are working. I've chosen to believe him, partly because I need all the optimism I can get at the moment, as above my Wife's Nursing team is currently at 30% infection rates, with 10% being hospitalised (bare in mind it's a team of 10, not thousands).
He's usually fairly cautious with his his ifs/buts/caveats but he's not been much off the mark and whilst he's an Oncologist, not a virologist he's a highly experienced one. I put more faith in him than I do politicians or journalists unless they're directly quoting experts.
While was out on my state sanctioned one a day, I did wonder (after observing that there was an awful lot of traffic about) whether petrol rationing had come up in government thinking.
Ah yes, Prof Karol Sikora, long time critic of the NHS, founder of a private for profit University and a CEO private health company, not an epidemelogist. Professional contrarian, liar, and not at all an interested party...
wikipedia
Some people on this forum are talking about herd immunity as if it’s happening (you know who you are),
Well it is. The end state here *is* herd immunity.
Current infection rates even in the hardest hit countries are a fraction of a percent for declared cases and about 1% if you assume real cases are an order of magnitude higher – which is unlikely given the Mulhouse religious meeting in which 2000/2500 were aware they’d been infected, the percentage of people that don’t know they’ve had it is small.
To get herd immunity you are looking at 100 times more misery and suffering than were are seeing now.
Or a vaccine. The reason we have a herd immunity to Mumps is because of the MMR vac etc. PRetty painless!
Also your numbers are wrong. Literally nobody knows how many people have already had it. (There are estimates from 500,000 to 30 million in the UK.)
Yup as discussed yesterday those lazy teachers have even given up their Easter break.
Some have. Many haven't.
His self-appointed role so far has to be the voice of optimism, convincing people to stay strong because things are working. I’ve chosen to believe him, partly because I need all the optimism I can get at the moment
Yup, that's why I follow him. This is the first thing he's said I thought was especially controversial 🙂
Those imperial figures are for infected at 28/3/2020 so the majority of them will have symptoms by now. If they're right then about 2 million Brits were infected at that date and you can expect a death toll of over 1% (based on the Mulhouse experience) of those infected a month or so later so 20 000. And that's just for 2.7% infected. Now do it for the 60% needed for herd immunity.
And what if erradication is possible. The Chinese seem to be claiming it is. The exit strategies being developped in France, Germany and Italy all seem to be based on progressively less cases rather than progessiviely more. Confinement to get down to manageable numbers then test and trace to slowly knock out the remaining clusters.
(There are estimates from 500,000 to 30 million in the UK.)
Well, I just estimated that we've all had it so add that to the list 😀
What sort of accuracy is required for a good standard, or useful standard of test?
It depends upon how many people have caught it in the population as well as how accurate it is. A 95% accurate test with 3% of the population having the antibody would mean just over 60% of those testing positive for the antibody will not have it. The equivalent number of a 99% test would be 25%.
Aye declared cases, there’s no country testing every one of their citizens though.
A week ago the imperial college were estimating this, I’d imagine things have moved on in the last 10 days.
And we’re all only in the first month of this… Many months to go.
If immunity isn’t a thing, that’s not good, cause lock downs aren’t lasting for 12-18 months.
Immunity isn’t and never has been a policy, it’s just a consequence and a consideration over time.
It also sounds like anti body testing is further away than we’d like too.
Testing is good, as it gives us a picture of what and where it’s happening, but that and lock downs aren’t going to stop this on their own.
You also talk as if people, like me that understand that immunity is and needs to be a consideration are talking as if we want it just to be let loose through to populations, we don’t, that would be crazy.
But in lieu of a miracle and the virus dying out on it’s own or a vaccine magically appearing early. Then how to lift restrictions while protecting the most amount of people is still the only game in town.
Cause as I say, lock down isn’t lasting forever.
+1 to all of this.
If immunity isn’t a thing, that’s not good, cause lock downs aren’t lasting for 12-18 months.
Yup... If immunity isn't a thing then a vaccine won't work either and we'll just have to all get Corona Virus over and over again for the rest of our lives.
Yes I find it baffling people seem keen to disprove immunity..
Honestly, think about the ramifications of there being no immunity.....
Where the hell did you read that? Our schools seem to be assuming they are going back in September
Whereas in higher education, people are considering that the autumn term may not happen. I don't know the expected likelyhood and probably just worst case contingency planning. But september is not a cert.
. The exit strategies being developped(sic) in France, Germany and Italy all seem to be based on progressively less cases rather than progessiviely(sic) more.
Linky?
It isn't trying to disprove immunity, it is simply we don't know if it exists long term for coronaviruses.
Plus when you include the ability of viruses to mutate and change the chances could be high.
it is basic virology and immunology sadly. And it is a reality we might have to face