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Glad someone else looked at the imhe data and thought it looks odd. I can't see how the us deaths is predicted to be only 20k greater than the uk considering the massive difference in population size and even on the current infection and death levels. The us currently has double the number of deaths and they are just getting going.
admittedly the uk level is likely higher than that reported but still the numbers just seem off
That’s a substantial difference!
Quite. I was avoiding posting that to avoid making the obvious mistake off adding a further 30% to the uk figure... 🤷🏼♂️
Not a formal burial then?
I’d rather go sky burial/evisceration personally. But you’re right I could have chosen my words a bit better... 🤔
Not sure a sky burial would work here, unless you do it at a raptor centre
The imhe data talks about a projected rate for 27th March, are these already a week (or longer) out of date?
My children have been having real time structured school since day 1 of the school closure. They have to log on at 9 and a register is taken at each lesson. If work cant be completed on line (art for instance) then photos must be submitted. Children missing lessons are followed up by a pastoral care tutor. I know this happens because we had problems with a chromebook early on and it looked like she wsnt in the lesson. We had emails and a call to check what the situation was. They have breaks at normal time and homework. At the end of the first two weeks we got a detailed questionnaire to fill in on what they thought worked well and what didn't.
All this was possible because the school has been on the vanguard of the Chromebook for learning program for the last 5 years so it was just all ready to go. I guess this program or similar will be rather more popular in the future.
The school faced a lot of criticism when the programme was first launched whivh has steadily decreased over time but this has certainly mopped up any remnants. The teachers are obviously working their socks off too.
Not sure a sky burial would work here, unless you do it at a raptor centre
I see red kites and buzzards out my kitchen window most days I’m in the house. I’m prepared to give it a bash...
Fair play, will keep any foxes happy too.
Not sure a sky burial would work here, unless you do it at a raptor centre
Could be a new feature at Nant-yr-Arian, bit of diversification / alternative income stream for trail building
France bans daytime exercise https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52202700
Wonder if it will happen here due to people congregating? I hope not as its the only thing keeping me sane.
Not really France is it, only banned in Paris to exercise during daytime. No mention for the rest of the country
http://covid19.healthdata.org/italy 20,300 (19,500 to 22,000) deaths
That’s a substantial difference!
Italy are already over 17,000 deaths, so those estimates seem very low
As above Paris, not France. A few more situations like this one and things may tighten up in the UK...
Perhaps even a return to school a month earlier than normal in order to catch up
This seems the most reasonable course of action to me.
Shes failed the attitude test, a dickette and to top it off a flat earther.
Have you seen her other videos?
Not sure a sky burial would work here, unless you do it at a raptor centre
Lammergeiers FTW
A Sky burial?
Black suit with blue cummerbund?
@slowoldman it's proper car crash viewing. The one filmed in front of the hospital to prove that covid 19 is a hoax is unintentional comedy brilliance.
20,300 (19,500 to 22,000)
Whatever the methodology, there is no possible means to achieve a precision of 5.5% on a PREDICTION of a stochastic process. My model has a residual of 11% and the prediction interval that I consider reasonable. I am 19/20 certain, based on data to date that this is model-predicted final tally. I haev a QC model to give a robust call on whether to believe the model. Italy passed, the others do not yet. So, sorry I remain skeptical. There is nothing on their site regarding methodology. Mine will be laid out with all code available.
So, that IMHE data is all odd.
Ive just looked at Sweden, who have practically no lockdown at all.
They predict a max death rate of 134/day and a total of 4182. Versus 2800/day for the UK and a total of 66000.
It also says Sweden has 179 ITU beds, which I doubt.
Digging into its UK data it also says the UK has 799 ICU beds. Looking at NHS stats it seems in January we had 4200, nd Im sure we have converted more since.
They suggest we ran out of capacity on 29 Mar, so I guess that's why they have us rocketing.
I haven't really paid much attention to the predictions but looking at that IMHE site, are they really predicting UK deaths to be 3x those of Spain or Italy?
Is there any data for what Boris’s blowout (pubs are shutting tomoz let’s all get pissed one last time) caused?
Well considering Swedish bars are still open........
RustyNissanPrairie
Subscriber
Is there any data for what Boris’s blowout (pubs are shutting tomoz let’s all get pissed one last time) caused?
I reckon theres a decent study in tracing everyone of the 250,000 people who went to Cheltenham & how they fared
The IMHE data looks like complete bollocks. Garbage in, garbage out.
Let's stick to results (to date) from reliable sources.
Well considering Swedish bars are still open……..
https://twitter.com/szymonkopec/status/1246169347434975232
You just have to ask WTF? or so they know something we don't? Thier graphs will be interesting in to comming months.
Speaking of graphs, as @glennquagmire said, gargabge in, garbage out.
There's just not enough data at the moment, at least not pubically available data. And what data there is, is fuzzified by many many variables, how many tests are done? and to whoom?
All we've got right now is a very fuzzy indication and whilst the trends are probably trending vaguely with reality, there's simply not enough data for anyone to be making accertations.
Also whilst I'm on, lay off the teachers, let their parents take some responsibility for giving their offspring some daily structure to life and a bit of education.
People also seem focused on death rates...thats hard when so many are infected and theres no data really on recovery rates, other than those that become criticaly ill, well of course the death rate in the crittically ill demographic is going to be bad.
@glennquagmire ive been using this..it's sometimes up to 24 hrs out of date but it seems a bit more like a rational way of looking at it.
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
My LinkedIn feed is full of these data visualizations (ESRI are pushing them hard) I like them in terms of map geekery but they don't provide much insight.
The data is often 2-3 days old
They are usually quite coarse, i.e. at country level (I have seen a Dutch one at 2 digit postal code)
What value do they provide? It's not like you can get in a car or plane and avoid a place as the developed world is mostly under restriction of movement.
@mattyfez thank you. The predictions and results seem to vary by quite a wide margin so I'll take a look at your link.
Ultimately fingers crossed we can get through this.
What value do they provide?
I agree it's low value data, but if you look at the lower yellow graph, the logmaritmic and daily infection increase... it tells a more interesting story than (deaths V's "X")
According to R4 Today the finger prick antibody tests evaluation finished: They didn't work well enough. 🙁
That was my last (only) hope for some kind of summer. Seems clear we're gonna be inside 'till Autumn. Best hope of some kind of summer is a targeted lockdown or on/off lockdowns.
This sucks. Effective house arrest for months.
(I can't find the story online so maybe I misheard. Fingers crossed...)
The Govt did say the lockdown would be on/off when they started it 3 weeks ago. A lot has changed since then
Let's stay optimistic
Let’s stay optimistic
Exactly. Stop posting depressive conjecture, you’re not helping yourself or others.
According to R4 Today the finger prick antibody tests evaluation finished: They didn’t work well enough.
I hope they do free returns!
Hancock constantly making promises he can't keep only undermines trust at the moment
Lots of companies are working on this so some sort of test should be along at some point (I read that some of the early kits tested in Italy only had a 30% success rate !) Was always a big ask that one's be available so soon.
Can't tell if Hancock is trying to be 'optimistic' or just is an habitual BSer
Both seems plausible
In fairness - Matt Hancock spoke more about targets than promises. And he is one of the better ones, although also in fairness, the bar isn't high.
Seems clear we’re gonna be inside ’till Autumn. Best hope of some kind of summer is a targeted lockdown or on/off lockdowns.
That's squashing the sombrero. Translate a fast spike of 1000's of deaths in a short period into a manageable dome of 1000's of deaths over a longer period. The difference is time, the deaths stay the same (or slightly reduced hopefully) Until a treatment is available we're going to have periods of lock down interrupted by periods of relative freedom. This isn't pessimistic, and pretending that it's not going to be this isn't optimism it's fairystories.
Let’s stay optimistic
What I'm trying to do is live, as much as I can, in the now - or at least the next week or so. Being optimistic leaves you open to disappointment, being pessimistic is depressing. But you can be curious about the world around you and the oddness of our situation.
There's a lot to be fascinated by: the way the media seems determined to prove that bad people are flouting the lockdown, even though mostly that doesn't seem to be the case. The odd tendency of people to tell other people what to do in BLOCK CAPITALS even though mostly those people are almost certainly doing it. Our media's fixation on painting the situation we're in as a 'war' as if brave fighters can somehow 'defeat' the virus when they get it, as per Raab on Johnson.
The way the extraordinary work of the NHS is suddenly centre stage and we realise, as a society, how we undervalue those people who are doing incredible work the rest of the time when they are still doing incredible work. Oh, and our relationship with death, which is right at the heart of this. Every year over half a million people die in the UK, but we've succeeded in somehow making it a near invisible process. Suddenly it's all too visible.
Sorry, that's the historian in me coming out I guess. Am at the tail-end of what, may or may not have been moderate-ish Covid-19 and have had lots of time to think in between the waves of coughing and weird chest tightness and high altitude breathing - think bivying at over 4000m when you're not properly acclimatised - elevated heart rate, depressed HRV and random deep muscle pains.
Anyway, I guess my point is that we have no individual control over what happens with the lockdown, all we can really do is follow the regs using a modicum of common sense, survive day-day-to-day and see what happens. YMMV.
Our media’s fixation on painting the situation we’re in as a ‘war’ as if brave fighters can somehow ‘defeat’ the virus when they get it, as per Raab on Johnson.
yeah the whole 'compare everything to a war' analogy just seems so trite
It also means that if Johnson doesnt shrug it off & is back to his old wiffle waffle self by next wednsday, then somehow he isnt a fighter after all
I just don't understand how the figures in Wuhan are so low.
In fairness – Matt Hancock spoke more about targets than promises
The targets were for the antigen test
Hancock was quite specific about the antibody kits
https://metro.co.uk/video/hancock-weve-bought-3-5-million-antibody-tests-2137170/?ito=vjs-link
It also means that if Johnson doesnt shrug it off & is back to his old wiffle waffle self by next wednsday, then somehow he isnt a fighter after all
Yep, I thought the whole 'Boris is a fighter' thing and will definitely be okay was misguided. The reality is that he's someone who's body is trying to fend off a viral illness and whether he grits his teeth or not will make very little difference. I very much hope he comes through this regardless of his politics and character, but if he does it'll be down to a combination of physiological and other factors, plus the very best care that the NHS can provide rather than because he's some sort of tough guy.
Marina Hyde in yesterday's Guardian sums it up well:
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/apr/07/horror-coronavirus-real-imaginary-war-britain
I just don’t understand how the figures in Wuhan are so low.
Because they had an actual lock down, we’re reducing/slowing contact and spread, not trying to stop it completely. They attempted (still too early to say succeeded) to isolate people so that the virus could not find any new hosts and died off… “we” decided that we couldn’t take the measures required for that (probably true) so haven’t even tried.