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Perhaps you should check out some other threads too, trail-Rat. You seem to be bothered by where I'm from and regularly make an issue of it.
Every objective study I’ve seen recently points to the need for three condictions for a high risk of airborne transmission. Inside, more than 10 minutes in close proximity, no masks.
School, school, and school...
No I'm making no issue of the fact your from France I'm making issue of the fact you are saying what happened in Manchester as if it's a fact your have seen with your eyes.
Sorry your not special because you live in France sorry. My folks live there too - as do.many other people it's common as ****.
I was at the protest in Manchester yesterday and can confirm though it was very busy, it was pretty much as Edukator describes it. His binoculars must be really good.
His binoculars must be really good.
He passed through on his horse whilst on his way to check on his rental properties. After which he diverted to Bristol to assist in pulling down the statute (he's actually out of picture and it was soley him and his horse that pulled the statue down)
He then rode him using his considerable experience to mentally find a cure for Coronavirus. All whilst setting a world record for the fastest man to swim the channel with a horse on his back (twice) he was actually faster the second time as he grows stronger as the day goes on
He doesn't like to talk about it though
His eyesite was a bit off so he drove to Manchester to be safe. Totally plausible, obvs.
Any way bit of good news....
New Zealand’s government will lift all Covid-19 restrictions except stringent border controls almost immediately, prime minister Jacinda Ardern has said, as the nation’s health officials declared that there were no longer any known, active cases of the coronavirus remaining.
#GetCovidDoneRight
is the 14 day quarantine thing enforceable?
is the 14 day quarantine thing enforceable?
Lots of moaning from the airlines, travel companies suggesting we shouldn’t have a quarantine as our infection rates are much higher than the rest of Europe. In reality it doesn’t matter if the countries they are flying to have no infection, it’s the being crammed into a plane for 3-4 hours with 200 people that’s the problem. If we go back to thousands of flights a day surely this will cause another spike. It would be better if the government just turned around and said no foreign holidays this year.
It would be better if the government just turned around and said no foreign holidays this year.
That would destroy all the holiday companies and airlines as they'd have to foot the bill.
I'm just thinking if it is not enforceable, people will go on holiday and then just go straight back to work / meeting friends / going to the pub anyway.
Assuming all european countries actually allow travellers from the UK without their own entry quarantine. UK travellers are far more likely to add to the EU countries infections as opposed to the opposite.
The gov really have ballsed this up good and proper from start to finish, haven't they?
I’m just thinking if it is not enforceable, people will go on holiday and then just go straight back to work / meeting friends / going to the pub anyway.
There will be some that will, yes. This fact makes me sad.
The gov really have ballsed this up good and proper from start to finish, haven’t they?
100%
I had little faith in them to start with but I'm amazed just how bad a job they have done. We had a massive head start, firstly with timing but also being an island and having a pretty decent health service. How has it been so much worse than pretty much everywhere else?
That would destroy all the holiday companies and airlines as they’d have to foot the bill.
Maybe, but I think it’s better to maintain the lockdown and get ourselves Covid free like New Zealand, surely this is a much better position overall for the economy, jobs, business and public health.
I hate to say this, but we really need to see an increase in deaths. Perception is that the pandemic has passed. Folk aren't really absorbing the fact that it's the current restrictions that are keeping the fatalities down. Hence the calls for holidays etc.
I posted it on the previous page but it will be a criminal offence to break quarantine
https://twitter.com/TomRHickman/status/1269197956168720389?s=19
Click through
travel companies suggesting we shouldn’t have a quarantine as our infection rates are much higher than the rest of Europe.
It's just exporting our mixing. Dispatch people from throughout the UK to one melting pot add alcohol and a misconception people are safe as the risk of infection abroad is lower. It's just going to be the ski resort problem all over again. I'm not feeling overly positive about the UK's path out of this.
Maybe, but I think it’s better to maintain the lockdown and get ourselves Covid free like New Zealand, surely this is a much better position overall for the economy, jobs, business and public health.
Sorry yes I 100% agree, I was suggesting why our Tory overloads wont do it, it unclearly though in retrospect!
I had little faith in them to start with but I’m amazed just how bad a job they have done. We had a massive head start, firstly with timing but also being an island and having a pretty decent health service. How has it been so much worse than pretty much everywhere else?
In the beginning, the instinct of the government was purely economic, despite what they were seeing elsewhere. Hence not locking down and the utter insanity of large events going ahead.
They held on as long as possible before they were basically forced to shut down the economy.
Their instinct now is again purely economic in easing the lockdown far too early.
Financial considerations have trumped humanitarian ones at every turn
The irony of all that is that while all this is going on, they're ploughing on with the Brexit project that will cause untold damage to the economy.
The irony is that their approach, both going into and coming out of a very weak ‘lock down’, will cost the UK economy far more than getting a grip on the virus early on and leaving lockdown earlier with full track/trace/isolate actually in place. When will we able to download a working trace app do you think?
When will we able to download a working trace app do you think?
I'm going to go with never.
When will we able to download a working trace app do you think?
1st January 2021
A workable track'n'trace app will only be available when johnson and his crew drop the nhsx one in favour of the apple/google app.
When will we able to download a working trace app do you think?
Tracking and tracing will always me a manual exercise. It is foolish to think otherwise. When Apple/Google API is adopted, we may have something. Once that starts decimating the London transport system...
I'm more or less lost for words at the behaviour of the government and large parts of the gneral public.
How long before we see an upswing in cases? Various anecdotes of increased admissions so I guess by mid-week tests will be coming in?
Went for a walk past one of our local beaches yesterday and it was heaving with no social distancing. One posh seafront eatery had opened for takeaways, including full meals and were allowing people to use their patio; so you had a crowded patio of people dressed up clearly to go for food/drink not jsut a quick snack off the beach. The only difference between normal operating was no tables, plastic cups and foam food containers. Didn't even feel comfortable walking the coast path as there was no effort from anyone else to step aside/veer course to try and maintain seperation. Left me feeling utterly despondent.
The big problem I see is if they try and lock down again more people will ignore it a second time.
I hate to say this, but we really need to see an increase in deaths. Perception is that the pandemic has passed. Folk aren’t really absorbing the fact that it’s the current restrictions that are keeping the fatalities down. Hence the calls for holidays etc.
Sadly I agree, otherwise we risk having years of stumbling along with high Covid death rates for a long time.
The irony is that their approach, both going into and coming out of a very weak ‘lock down’, will cost the UK economy far more than getting a grip on the virus early on and leaving lockdown earlier with full track/trace/isolate actually in place.
That's the big picture, they don't do that kind of thinking. It's been said loads of times before but if we'd acted decisively at the beginning it's quite possible we could be ahead of mainland Europe in terms of restoring normal life by now. We'll have more financial pain to deal with as travel to other countries that are virtually Covid-free would stop us travelling there, wave goodbye to foreign holidays for a while.
How long before we see an upswing in cases? Various anecdotes of increased admissions so I guess by mid-week tests will be coming in?
I've got friends in the NHS in South Wales and Cornwall, all are reporting increases in admissions in the last week. Add in the delays and I'd guess at an upswing showing in the numbers towards the end of the week, deaths a week or so behind that. That gives enough time for any increased transmission to take hold and start to really get going. I hope I'm wrong and it will just be a small blip but I doubt it.
The big problem I see is if they try and lock down again more people will ignore it a second time.
Every country gets precisely one go at lockdown.
Which is why every other nation will be looking at our successes and wondering why they don't have a Prime Minister or President with Good Old Man Of The People Boris' track record on coronavirus.
That would destroy all the holiday companies and airlines as they’d have to foot the bill.
Perhaps they should have hung on to some cash rather than spunking dividends and bonuses, then?
Tired… while we all know that a trace app is an additional tool on top of the real work of the manual tracing… we have NEITHER in place… and government ministers told us the trace app was essential… will they swap to using the Apple/Google API to give us this essential (their word) tool anytime before September? Asking for students of all ages…
What on earth are you talking about, we have a world beating track and trace system, have done since 8 days ago, King Boris said so himself.
There are no US tanks in Baghdad.
I’m more or less lost for words at the behaviour of the government and large parts of the gneral public.
How long before we see an upswing in cases? Various anecdotes of increased admissions so I guess by mid-week tests will be coming in?
Went for a walk past one of our local beaches yesterday and it was heaving with no social distancing. One posh seafront eatery had opened for takeaways, including full meals and were allowing people to use their patio; so you had a crowded patio of people dressed up clearly to go for food/drink not jsut a quick snack off the beach. The only difference between normal operating was no tables, plastic cups and foam food containers. Didn’t even feel comfortable walking the coast path as there was no effort from anyone else to step aside/veer course to try and maintain seperation. Left me feeling utterly despondent.
The big problem I see is if they try and lock down again more people will ignore it a second time.
Doesn't seem to be the case around Swansea area. Since VE day people been saying there'll be an upswing of cases but hasn't materialised. There's hardly any new cases now in the Swansea bay health board area. Been low single figures for new cases for the lastweek or two.
@roach - I'm also based in Swansea. Glad to hear no new cases. The crowds of people drinking around the langland bras., on the steps to the beach and on their patio was unbelieveable yesterday arvo (or maybe we've jsut go so used to not seeing anyone it seemed busy). Still I guess outside with a sea breeze helps mitigate things.
I read this over the weekend which I found pretty infuriating. I'm not really stating an opinion either way on the quarantine, I just find Simon Calder's argument pretty poor. I stand to be correct but surely even if the prevelance of the virus is lower abroad by travelling that far you're exposing yourself to lots more people (from both the UK and abroad) so you're chance of being infected/infecting others goes up. I can't tell if Simon is being partisan, he's got a very vested interest in travel or is just very bad at science/maths.
The number of infections – and, tragically, the consequent deaths – will be higher than had quarantine not been introduced.
That is because quarantine has the immediate effect of deterring British holidaymakers from going abroad this summer.
By causing the cancellation of holidays for millions of prospective UK travellers, the quarantine policy will eliminate an effective way to cut the infection rate: reduce the number of candidates for infection.
The more people in the UK, the more potential victims. Therefore the government should encourage as many healthy British citizens as possible to travel, safely and respectfully, to countries where infection rates are lower – which includes almost every nation on earth.
Instead, the government is choosing to do the opposite. Keeping people in the UK when they want to be elsewhere will increase the number of Covid-19 cases.
Zero recorded deaths in Scotland 2 days in a row now, yes, both weekend days so will potentially be higher, but still taking this as good news.
@roach – I’m also based in Swansea. Glad to hear no new cases. The crowds of people drinking around the langland bras., on the steps to the beach and on their patio was unbelieveable yesterday arvo (or maybe we’ve jsut go so used to not seeing anyone it seemed busy). Still I guess outside with a sea breeze helps mitigate things.
I called down there for a nose on my ride yesterday actually 🙂
Pint would've been nice!
Just been in contact with a relative who is a trainee doctor in Manchester.
She’s been in a meeting and it was declared the R value in Manchester is around 1.6 which isn’t looking good.
Simon Calder’s argument pretty poor.
Well, to be fair, if all 66 million inhabitants had been in any one of the EU27 for the past three months we'd be better off right now.
She’s been in a meeting and it was declared the R value in Manchester is around 1.6 which isn’t looking good.
It was still at 1.1 when Andy Burnham here, and the Liverpool mayor were both saying that it was too early to ease the lockdown in the northwest as the infection rate was still too high and that the decision was being taken purely as it was below 1 in London.
Looks like they were right. Its on the up again. You've got hotspots in places like Blackburn which are still getting loads of infections. And of course, 15,000 people in Manchester City Centre won't exactly have helped matters
To try and lock down again, especially on just a regional basis, will be virtually impossible
New case rate now seems to match Italy's rate from a month ago, Spain's with from three weeks ago.
Used to be a two week lag.
Anyone heard or seen Whitty lately?
With Scotland's number dropping off, and the NW seemingly climbing again, I can see some traction in the idea of regional segregation, despite some claims that it's unworkable.
It was still at 1.1 when Andy Burnham here, and the Liverpool mayor were both saying that it was too early to ease the lockdown in the northwest as the infection rate was still too high and that the decision was being taken purely as it was below 1 in London.
Looks like they were right. Its on the up again. You’ve got hotspots in places like Blackburn which are still getting loads of infections. And of course, 15,000 people in Manchester City Centre won’t exactly have helped matters
To try and lock down again, especially on just a regional basis, will be virtually impossible
Will there even be the political will to shut the school gates again, or hold off restarting retail so thousands of people aren't roaming around the Trafford Centre in a couple of weekends' time?
As incompetent as our gov are the journalists are not much better are they! From the beeb just now.
No deaths were reported in London hospitals for the second day in a row, NHS England said. However it added that a "small number" of people had died and they would be included in figures in the next few days.
From the beeb just now.
I was just about to post that exact same sentence.... from Sky News. Political soundbite?
johnson and his clown circus are placing much confidence that 'restarting retail' will kickstart the economy.
That makes everything OK; do they really think that discretionary spending will recover to anywhere near it's previous levels?
How many - or few - people feel confident about job security?
The 'leisure sector' - and you can draw that as widely as you wish - is stuffed; clothes/shoes/fashion - WFH will be a drag on sales as will the dis-inclination to take foreign hols; when gyms re-open I think as many as 50% of memberships will be cancelled.
New car sales have taken a big hit and I don't see that changing; as for PCP, I think it's had it's day.
Core retail will continue largely unchanged - supermarkets, convenience stores, pharmacies, butcher, baker, farm shops, children's clothes; I would include bookshops as core.
Once the various support schemes begin to unwind and then end we'll see the economic and business carnage; how many people will find that furlough support has, in reality, been delayed redundancy.
Lots of pent up demand. If we could see a safe return to full retail, shops would do well.
I’d argue that requires zero (or close to) cases in the region for it to happen, and track/trace/isolate to be in place (and not just PR hot air).
Pent-up demand for what?
Shopping. It's a national pasttime.
Was a national pastime; to be seen if that will change.
The queues to go to IKEA, McDonalds and KFC would suggest that the shopping tastes of the public haven't changed at all...
Not a chance will it change, they'll be back in the shopping centres quicker than a rat up a drainpipe.
If you can reopen shopping centres and city centres fully and safely, the retail demand would prove to be huge. We’re not doing that though, we’re planning on keeping the virus ticking along, and telling people they can risk shopping if they want. Many won’t. A recovery in the retail sector is entirely possible, people really do want to get out and about and do some shopping and socialising in their favourite haunts, but it requires the government to act very differently. This government needs to act if it wants an economic uptick, not just weaken advice and hope that magically means a return to full economic activity.
What do the public think about the government’s handling of all this … (you know, 10% of the world’s deaths from the virus, and an “us and them” attitude to not spreading the virus about)…
https://twitter.com/yougov/status/1269931042728796161?s=21
Peak retail has passed; remains to be seen what residual demand there will be.
There will be high footfall to begin with people looking for 'bargains'; when the discounted stuff has gone - and there will be lots of it - what next?
Shopping centres cannot survive on permanent discounting; who's going to pay full price from now on?
The biggest driver in the future of retail will be what happens in the job market.
I'm very pessimistic about the job market and that feeds directly into my view about retail.
Truth is none of us know; time will tell.
I think there’s definitely a surge on the cards if/when shops re-open. No doubt that there’s a bottled up demand fizzing and waiting to be popped. However, as recession looms, that confidence (if that’s what we can call it) will be short-lived and it’s quite possible that discretionary spending will take a dive again.
Pent-up demand for what?
Crap you don’t need.
The under 25’s will be itching to get into primark for stuff they will wear once and throw away.
Ok grandad, the garden centres have been heaving for a week...
😂
Well thats it then, all over yes? Thanks Mr Hancock, I've got a bunch of M&S vouchers I've been gagging to spend in Westfield next week.
According to the WHO asymptomatic transmission is 'very rare'. If true, good news and Would perhaps explain why kids don't seem to pass it on much.
“We have a number of reports from countries who are doing very detailed contact tracing,” Van Kerkhove said at a briefing Monday from the U.N.’s Geneva headquarters. “They’re following asymptomatic cases. They’re following contacts. And they’re not finding secondary transmission onward.”
the available evidence from contact tracing reported by Member States suggests that asymptomatically-infected individuals are much less likely to transmit the virus than those who develop symptoms
.
Did you read all the Marke****ch article? It’s by no means conclusive and goes on to say:
“@WHO communication here not stellar. If folks without symptoms truly ’very rarely’ spread virus, would be huge. But such a statement by @WHO should be accompanied by data. Asymptomatic spread is Achille’s heal of this outbreak. Would love to be wrong. Need to see data.”
Well thats it then, all over yes? Thanks Mr Hancock, I’ve got a bunch of M&S vouchers I’ve been gagging to spend in Westfield next week.
What's he said now then? I tend to avoid national news, it's depressing.
Did you read all the Marke****ch article? It’s by no means conclusive and goes on to say:
“@WHO communication here not stellar. If folks without symptoms truly ’very rarely’ spread virus, would be huge. But such a statement by @WHO should be accompanied by data. Asymptomatic spread is Achille’s heal of this outbreak. Would love to be wrong. Need to see data.”
No I didn't read the Marke****ch article at all. I read the WHO original and linked to Marke****ch (which I've never heard of) because it included video of Maria Van Kerkhove saying it in her own words.
I know the WHO have had a bad press for many good reasons but I assumed their individual experts are world class and if they say they’re not finding secondary transmission onward from asymptomatic cases it would mean something. Checking out the preprints in the responses to Maria Van Kerkhove's twitter post I'm starting wonder if that was a wise assumption.
What’s he said now then?
Words close to and to the effect of “Coronavirus has all but gone from our shores” in Parliament and “Its ok to send your relatives back to care homes” in the daily briefing.
My words are indicative of the general populations likely interpretation, that if it wasn’t the understanding already that the lockdown is unofficially over.
Sorry, he said what? Is he blind/stupid/mad???
The UK is still something like fifth in the world for cases and has triple digit deaths per day from COVID and it is "all but gone"???
Jesus.
I'll just stick to listening to wee Nic instead, far more sensible than the monkey-house-on-the-river.
Well, as I predicted in March, children will not be returning to school in any meaningful capacity until September. Not at all surprised by this, but that must be challenging for the economy.
As for the WHO, they often have a habit of firing from the hip, and when the science is uncertain, this habit comes back to bite you. They’ve dropped the ball with regards to transmission potential based on SARS and MERS, being not very transmissible, didn’t want to create panic, I imagine. Comments on asymptomatic transmission will be the same.
Proper scientists are comfortable living with uncertainty. Anyone who is confidently certain of anything with regards to SARS-COV-2, a virus humans have only known for six months, is likely to be wrong. How they might be wrong is another debate. Politicians are always certain.
triple digit deaths
Well 55. Maybe, possibly, as it was the weekend after all.
Another of the governments intellectual heavyweights weighs in
Not at all surprised by this
No one is. It was a useful tool to bash teaching staff and their unions with while healthcare staff and their unions couldn’t be the government’s target.
[Everyone remembers Cummings history with staff in the education sector, yes?]
That Whately yin is thicker than a whale omelette.
Daughter was told she was switching years and to be back in the classroom on Monday. Then told only 40 kids turning up in the whole school so she's now on reserve. She'd been in doing risk assessments etc and said the restrictions were such that she expected the 40 to decline by the summer.
I've been doing a bit of radio trawling and what's going on abroad is remarkably different: programmes on CV for 30mns to 1hr long in Botswana and the Cook Islands, health alerts on Midwest Radio (Ireland) in English, Irish, French, Polish and Portuguese with clear instructions. Can't imagine why we're not getting that here when we're world beaters.
All the staff at my other half’s school were in, together, weeks ago, preparing for kids to return this month who in reality were never returning this month. One member of staff resigned, as they have a shielding family member in their household and refused to be part of the mingling of staff so early.
But, Cummings has made another step towards turning the public against “the blob”, as many will be blaming teachers, unions, local authorities, and schools for all this… if the fall out was damage to the careers and lives (and possibly even loss of life) for some members of the blob… not only doesn’t he care, he probably sees it as a useful bonus. The man is a career psychopath.
Read about his time at the DfE and afterwards… he has form… this is all his doing.
This government needs to act if it wants an economic uptick, not just weaken advice and hope that magically means a return to full economic activity.
Magical thinking has featured really rather heavily in the past several years.
My expectation is some form of "got covid done" bullspaffery by the current administration, starting quite soon. And then a 1984 to be done on the slow burn of the disease through the elderly and infirm.
Todays excess deaths - epidemic model has converged. Two week half-life for decline is about right. Back to baseline by July (as I stated in April). Some variability in the regions. 70K excess deaths predicted, 90% in the 65+, 50% in the 85+ age group.
Shopping. It’s a national pasttime.
We "measure" our economy by GDP... and we are a net importer.
The more people spend the "better" we can say our economy is...
Measured by GDP it's irrelevant if those people can eat so long as they spend we can claim to have a world class economy.
You’ll have to explain the control there TiRed… it looks very contrived to the untrained eye.
TiReD
Presume your model is not accounting for any ease or removal of lockdown?