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but preparation for distance learning up to Xmas is already being considered at all levels of education.
Source for this? I'm a teacher (admittedly I'm on 'holiday' right now so not paying as close attention as I usually might) but everything I 'know' so far still seems to be focused on a September return.
Now if you had mentioned cats can host the virus then i would have agreed
Even that isn’t looking very likely.
The NHS has been under a sustained financial attack from a mystery force for the last decade. Its time fro Jeffery Schlupp to step up.
BBC News now reporting Bojo on oxygen but not ventilator.
So according to him, the next 24 hours is key. Some patients are on CPAP for 24 hours and then back out again to recover. The rest are intubated and that’s where the 50/50 odds (he said his dept was 54/46) apply.
How long has Bojo been in ITU?
He says clutching at straws.
52 and completely unshit lifestyle here. I drink about 1 unit a week, never smoked, no medical history and a very fit 70 kilos and 21 BMI. It will come down to the immunology hand you are dealt. Still bumping along and not getting worse.
Regarding schools, couldn't the current situation be used to rejig the school year? So instead of having school years that run Sept to Aug, instead they run Jan to Dec getting rid of the six weeks holiday at the same time? So for example end of term is three weeks long instead of the current two times two weeks and six week summer holiday. If schools were to re-open in say September then kids could finish their last term of this school year.
52 and completely unshit lifestyle here. I drink about 1 unit a week, never smoked, not medical history and a very fit 70 kilos and 21 BMI. It will come down to the immunology hand you are dealt. Still bumping along and not getting worse.
Good to still see you are still doing OK.
BBC report this morning (I think) said that African-Americans were being disproportionately affected by Coronavirus.
Hydroxychloroquine. Chances are you only heard that word recently. And there’s an even higher chance you heard it because it was mentioned by US President Donald Trump.
nah heard about it years ago.
Social factors?
BBC News now reporting Bojo on oxygen but not ventilator.
Or CPAP.
@scotroutes - I believe so. It was in fairly poor cities like Detroit and Chicago. The poorer segments of society who may not be in the best health due to the American healthcare system.
Edit: Found it now
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-52194018
I wonder if people of African 'origin' are also more susceptible to influenza like they are to cold injuries. Influenza is more potent in colder climates I believe, so 'ethnic groups' associated with colder climates may have a more robust immunology? I know that is a very crude assertion but consider that 'White Europeans' are more susceptible to malaria and I also read something once about ethnicity and resistance to cholera.
No social contact outside the immediate home, perfectly understandable and good advice, so why the **** is scientists question school closures up for discussion?, surely there is an increased chance that kids (being mostly asymptomatic carriers) will bring it into a secure home environment?
I love dogs, it’s the bellend at the other end of the lead that’s the issue. 🙂
Do you have any real motivation for posting this beyond just goading people in this febrile atmosphere? Have a word with yourself. :Smiley face:
My white blood cell count is on the low side (3.9 at last count, 4-10 is normal) and has been around that for many years. Thing is i never get ill with colds etc so i have my fingers crossed that I just 'run low'. Medical tests have not discovered any other reason for it.
That said last year I severely uped the intensity of my training and lost a ton of weight and my wbc count dropped to around 3. Didn't have any symptoms, but have severely cut down on longer rides for the moment to avoid a repeat
My white blood cell count is on the low side (3.9 at last count, 4-10 is normal) and has been around that for many years. Thing is i never get ill with colds etc
Ive got secondary progressive MS yet in my 48yrs i have never had measles/chickenpox/sore throat/a cold/flu or any illness throughout my life, never even had a runny/snotty nose but i do get occasional cold sores (that clear up within a day) when those around me get ill. Perhaps i'm actually an alien visitor who got stranded here.
Lifestyle is a big thing. When I worked in the oilfield I would get colds a lot because of interacting and working with people so closely, plus all the long-haul flights. In the last few years where I've been much more solitary, I think it's about 2 years since I even had a cold.
Just reading about the Paris joggers thing on France24.
Is what’s reported accurate that there are large groups of joggers out? Seems crazy particularly with so many cases in the north east.
why the **** is scientists question school closures up for discussion?
Are you saying UCL shouldn't have done the research? Or that Dr Samantha Brooks & Prof Robert Dingwall shouldn't have added their independent comments? Or Prof Neil Ferguson should have explained the benefits of doing it? Or that the media shouldn't be reporting it.
Personally, I think data is always a good thing, especially where the context is spelled out as clearly as this. Limiting reasearch on the basis the (caveated) conclusion doesn't meet your preconceptions seems a bad idea. At what point do you ban it? In advance? Once you've read the conclusion?
No social contact outside the immediate home, perfectly understandable and good advice, so
The article you linked to specifically quotes Prof Neil Ferguson addressing that:
"When combined with intense social distancing it plays an important role in severing remaining contacts between households and thus ensuring transmission declines," he said.
Simples: Unless the country is in total lockdown school closures don't have benefits as large as we might imagine. As part of a stricter lockdown they do. I do't see that as especially controversial.
New uk figures out - 758 deaths recorded today. Considering every Tuesday has seen a spike from weekend under-recording, it still shows a decent trend. (the drop from sun-mon was 180, so reallocate 180 deaths from today to Monday, then recent numbers are:
563, 569, 684, 708, 621, 619, 580
Tuesday is the 'outside hospital' day, IIRC. edit: sorry, that's rubbish.
Makes 12% 3-day average.
From 2nd to 5th, the 3-day average was 21%.
Three days don't yet make a trend but it is a promising drop, and we are now two weeks on from lockdown and three weeks on from the soggy soft 'wash yer hands and please don't go to the pub'.
Scottish figures will likely need to be reviewed as they will now be including deaths with "suspected CV19" symptoms. I think that starts tomorrow. No news of the other UK data gathering being similarly changed.
Or that the media shouldn’t be reporting it.
That the media should do a better job of reporting on it. Perhaps leading with the comment that the study suggess that a limited re-opening of schools, with limited attendance paired with major changes to enable social distancing could be possible without a major increase in spread of the virus. Not using a headline “closing schools unnecessary say boffins”, or similar.
854 for the UK
758 for England only
Theres plenty of poor journalism. This article on confusion between reported 7 real deaths uses a graphic that completely inflates the data discussed beneath it, as well as using confusing terms.
Sorry Piemonster my mistake will edit ^^^^^^
edit : too late !!
should read 563, 569, 684, 708, 621, 619, 634 for corrected 7 day daily deaths
For those who prefer pictures!
...and per million for those who like to compare countries:
Promising.
Unless the country is in total lockdown school closures don’t have benefits as large as we might imagine. As part of a stricter lockdown they do. I do’t see that as especially controversial.
For me, the bit that is controversial is the expectation you can maintain an appropriate social distancing regime within a school.
Prof Viner says ...
"There's a whole range of things that schools could do to reopen in a way that involves social distancing at schools but keeps schools open."
Theres plenty of poor journalism. This article on confusion between reported 7 real deaths uses a graphic that completely inflates the data discussed beneath it, as well as using confusing terms.
Yeah, plenty of journalism sucks, but that BBC article was better than average, not worse. Lots of detail, lots of direct quotes from named people. Specifics about which report it was referring to and the Govt guy's response included.
...but the post I was responding to wasn't criticising the quality of the article, he was saying the "discussion" shouldn't be happening. I have a real problem with that. If we only allow research work that meets our pre-conceived ideas then we might as well forget about Data based decision making and go with our gut feeling.
For me, the bit that is controversial is the expectation you can maintain an appropriate social distancing regime within a school.
There are. They listed several on R4 at lunchtime.
For me, the bit that is controversial is the expectation you can maintain an appropriate social distancing regime within a school.
Prof Viner says …
“There’s a whole range of things that schools could do to reopen in a way that involves social distancing at schools but keeps schools open.”
Prof Viner talks a load of pony.
They listed several on R4 at lunchtime
Do tell, I'm not adverse to people reporting what's on radio.
Indeed, following the measures he suggests would keep a school open in name only, with most kids still being at home on any given school day and a very different staff:pupil ratio than normal, requiring all teaching staff to attend and be put at risk.
Also, he has **** all understanding about how kids in a “normal” school would likely behave when asked to keep social distance at all times, if you ask me.
It’s all useful stuff to look at, and should help inform the eventual return to school, but should not be reported as “school closures not needed” by the media. It feeds the idea that kids can be free to mingle, which sadly is far from the case.
Let’s hope the return to school can begin sooner rather than later.
Do tell, I’m not adverse to people reporting what’s on radio.
No outside breaks. Short days - as in two hours. Alternating year groups.
Also, he has **** all understanding about how kids in a “normal” school would likely behave when asked to keep social distance at all times, if you ask me.
(s)He's a DOCTOR! Their job is not to come up with a policy, just to say what medical consequences mightbe. ...and they're telling us that under some circumstances school closures aren't as beneficial as we might think. Then (if they even read it) the government people have a read and think "fair enough but there's nothing in here to suggest we made the wrong call" . ...and in this case we know they have read it because Neil Ferguson explains why the current policy was right in the same bloody article!
Why are people so afraid of facts and data? The more data the better.
If schools weren’t packed full of kids, who mingle in corridors, on the way to and from school on bus and by foot, share classrooms with lots of other kids, follow new rules they are given… if, if, if…
No one is scared of facts and data, don’t be so patronising.
The headline reporting, and how it will influence the behaviour of those who read them is the issue. The study is to be welcomed and should be expanded on and used to inform policy, which it no doubt will be.
No outside breaks. Short days – as in two hours. Alternating year groups.
Possible, but you would probably need to restrict class size to under about 10 instead of the normal 30+ (as Mrs SWSD has found through experience) and also expect them to sit at their desks for the whole two hours. I suppose that might work at secondary school. But then you might just as well stick with distance learning.
Okay, I haven't read back through all 187 pages...
I'm getting the sense the 2 week long period of "we're all in this together' has left the UK as quickly as it arrived, now it's just people peering through their curtains judging everyone else for breaking some rule they can't possibly know they're breaking.
I've been asked, quite aggressively twice in the last few days whether I should be driving my car (and once by a PCSO but he was cool and more concerned why I was stood looking through the window of a closed building, long story). For the record, yes, I should.
I've seen endless Twitter posts completely devoid of any sense of irony "OMG, I WENT TO THE PARK TODAY AND IT'S FULL OF OTHER PEOPLE, I CAN'T BELIEVE SOME PEOPLE ARE SO IRRESPONSIBLE"
I've heard shop workers moaning to their friends as they serve them "I'M FED UP OF ALL THESE PEOPLE COMING IN JUST TO BUY BOOZE, IT'S NOT ESSENTIAL!!! 20 Benson and Hedges did you say?"
Fear of strangers has made the UK a much worse place in my lifetime, for a moment there it looked like people were going to start trusting again, all those lovely stories of people asking elderly neighbours if they needed shopping etc have been replaced by tales of people witnessing people doing things that must be wrong, because it's not what I do"
Possible, but you would probably need to restrict class size to under about 10 instead of the normal 30+ (as Mrs SWSD has found through experience) and also expect them to sit at their desks for the whole two hours. I suppose that might work at secondary school. But then you might just as well stick with distance learning.
I'm reporting what I heard, at the direct request of another poster, I'm not advocating it. I think the Ferguson/Whitty et al have got this spot on, while the lockdown is on, schools should be off.
I'm merely saying that saying that something shouldn't have been "discussed" because it doesn't meet our pre-conceived ideas is a bat poo mental. A medievil outlook.
Why are people so afraid of facts and data? The more data the better.
Caroline Criado Perez reports that according to Matt Hancock "four doctors have died and some nurses". Are the nurses deaths being counted?
"The official UK government NHS COVID-19 data collection does not ask for sex. Sex-disaggregated data matters."
P-Jay
No, I think within communities the helpful spirit is alive and well. Social Media has always had its share of curtain twitching retards.
No, I think within communities the helpful spirit is alive and well. Social Media has always had its share of curtain twitching retards.
+1
Amazing around my way.
Regarding schools, couldn’t the current situation be used to rejig the school year? So instead of having school years that run Sept to Aug, instead they run Jan to Dec getting rid of the six weeks holiday at the same time? So for example end of term is three weeks long instead of the current two times two weeks and six week summer holiday. If schools were to re-open in say September then kids could finish their last term of this school year.
Could be the first good thing to come of this. Put the long holiday over Christmas. Stops the dangerous and miserable walking to/from school in the dark and rain in Dec/Jan, less chance of snow disruption, removes all the school traffic from rush hour at the busiest/worst/most polluting time of the year. Plus could get cricket back into state schools.