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I was surprised how compliant the majority of the public were at first. A week or maybe two earlier, stricter guidance around exercise just to make the rules clearer, would have been more achievable than I probably thought.
Spain had a very effective decline
Its recent figures are rubbish, they are only reporting deaths that took place the day before, so if a death take more than a day to report it misses the figures entirely - FT correspondent has done a thread, figures went from 200+ deaths per day to single figures when they changed their approach.
Down to single digit deaths for a week and around 300 new cases a day which is what’s reckoned to be manageable in terms of tracing and suggest deaths will stay in single digits.
Yes. Spain had an appalling start but locked down hard and are now looking quite good.
Note 300 cases/day, normalised, is 7 cases per million population per day.
Given that they are several weeks different to UK it might be instructive to look at the two weeks old figure, which was 22 cases per million pop per day.
The comparable current UK figure, 24 cases per million pop per day.
UK still need a couple of weeks with little to no mixing; the total of near 2k cases/day seems a bit much for the 25k test and trace and trackers who are still dealing with long turnarounds on testing, and not being that effective yet through inexperience and new setup and teething troubles. Obviously I'm just a software monkey working at home not an expert though.
Does anyone have a link to reliable hospital admissions data for the UK?
Its recent figures are rubbish, they are only reporting deaths that took place the day before
Yes the death figures are now cobblers.
Presume the new cases data is still sensible though.
Oh gosh just seen the usual pro-Tory commentators jumping up & down about Spain 'cheating' their death records
all missing that it still doesnt explain why the UK has been so consistently woeful
Latin countries, France, Spain and Italy are much less obedient to rules. Their governments had to have very strict rules for the lock down.
In France, the lock down was very effective and followed for the first 3 weeks. After that people resilience started to crumble.
It din't so much crumble as become more selective. I think we've learned the conditions needed for transmission and adapted. There were loads of people outside the bars yesterday but they were outside and more separated than usual, everyone in the station and on the bus was wearing a mask as was almost everyone in the supermarket. I went to friends for a dinner party, we sat outside and didn't exchange the usual bises, no-one ate with their fingers. At school Madame still has classes of about 10 and they all wear masks (despite the oficial directive dropping the mask obligation for teachers as of today).
I'm hoping enough people are being careful enough to maintain the downward trend.
Oh gosh just seen the usual pro-Tory commentators jumping up & down about Spain ‘cheating’ their death records
Anything to take the focus off the own-goals here eh?
Question: we've now carried out thousands of tests over a period of several weeks. Is anyone doing follow-up antibody tests on those who previously tested Positive to get some idea of whether or not the antibodies are (still?) present and, if so, for how long?
Oh gosh just seen the usual pro-Tory commentators jumping up & down about Spain ‘cheating’ their death records
all missing that it still doesnt explain why the UK has been so consistently woeful
These statements are not mutually exclusive.
The Spanish courts have already opened up an investigation on the possible cock-up at the start of the crisis.
Question: we’ve now carried out thousands of tests over a period of several weeks. Is anyone doing follow-up antibody tests on those who previously tested Positive to get some idea of whether or not the antibodies are (still?) present and, if so, for how long?
How about anti-body tests on those who didn't previously get tested as well especially those who were living with someone who either tested positive or suspected?
Come to that how about PCR tests on them as well to see if they are currently/still spreading?
https://9to5mac.com/2020/06/04/switching-to-apple/
Interesting comment:
With the benefit of hindsight, this should have been obvious. Government IT projects typically take years, when what we needed was something available within weeks.
What Apple and Google really should have done was create their own apps, and just make localized versions available in each country.
Hasn't taken long for the scammers to start exploiting the trakc-and-trace confusion. Been forwarded this by my mum after someone in one of her facebook groups got caught out by the following phone call:
‘Good morning, I'm calling from the NHS track and trace service. According to our system, you are likely to have been in close proximity to someone who has tested postive for COVID-19. This means that you now need to self-isolate for 7 days and take a COVID-19 test.'
'OK. Can you tell me who that person was?'
'I'm not able to tell you that. That is confidential information.'
'Right. Um... so ....'
'But you do need to be tested within the next 72 hours. So can I just get the best mailing address so that we can send a kit to you?'
'Ok (gives address)'
'Thank you - and I just need to take a payment card so that we can finalise this and send the kit to you.'
'Sorry - a payment card? I though this was all free?'
'No - I'm afraid not. There is a one-off fee of £500 for the kit, and test results. Could you read off the long card number for me, please, when you're ready.'
'No - that's not right. This is part of the NHS so there's no charge.'
'I'm afraid there is. Can you give me the card number please - this is very important, and there are penalties for not complying.'
Puts phone down.
This is how scammers work. And vulnerable people will fall for it.
Don't fall for it...!
Scum at the best of times but now even more so.
In answer to Scotroutes, yes. There was a French study on hospital staff who tested positive who were given antibody tests 39 days later and 98% were positive for antibodies. Other studies back this up.
People infected in the 2003 SRAS outbreak stil had antibodies 12 years later. I can't remember which keys words I used for that fact.
Can anybody tell me why I’m wrong?
I’ve liking thought out testing strategy is completely wrong.
For months we used all our testing capacity in hospitals, testing those who presented with CV symptoms.
My policy would be - anybody presenting to hospital with serious CV symptoms most probably has CV, so treat them for it. Use the limited capacity to test the people likely to be catching it and possibly asymptomatic. That way you find people before they Spread it.
Christian from la Charité in Berlin (Germany's Mr Covid) has answered a lot of question about testing. The problem with testing asymptomatic people who may have been infected is that they are likely to test negative if you test them immediately so if you do you have to test them again later, and maybe again. And you still might not get a positive result. There appear to be people who fly under the radar. In short you have to target your testing to those in contact with known cases within a certain number of days of the contact to pick up cases. People "likely to be catching it" would just be a waste of capacity.
What's lacking at present isn't testing capacity, it's a tracing system capable of tracking down people to test.
What about those thicko drs and nurses?
The differnce for me between halthcare workers and teachers on this is healthcare workers knew that serious infection risks were a part of the job. Covid is a quantitative change not qualitative. Teachers expect to get sniffles from the kids, not serious infections.
I've been lucky in my career. Scabies twice and norovirus twice in my time.
Government announces face coverings on public transport will be compulsory in England from 15th June
Why the delay? If new cases are higher now than they will be in 2 weeks, wouldn't you want people using PT to be covering faces from now? Can anyone explain the logic here?
The differnce for me between halthcare workers and teachers on this is healthcare workers knew that serious infection risks were
Dont worry I didnt mean you or others were thick, I just took umbrage at the posters victim blaming simplistic bobbins.
I just took umbrage
That's an understatement.
Why the delay? If new cases are higher now than they will be in 2 weeks, wouldn’t you want people using PT to be covering faces from now? Can anyone explain the logic here?
Seems slightly silly, maybe they are planning on ramping up service in 2 weeks? They're half admitting that everyone should be wearing masks already in such circumstances. Maybe supplies chain are not ready?
I just took umbrage
That’s an understatement.
Is it, why?
In other news Readings finest tests negative.
I didn't think you were calling us thick AA
Seen the latest on track and trace in the grauniad?
Yeah world class, my a&&!!
I came back to say my original comment this morning was rubbish due to partial info from the Spanish. I believe the figures for just Madrid was 11 on Monday and 12 on Tuesday (it may have been Tuesday & Wednesday but I'm not going to trawl Twitter for the info as it was this morning).
My apologies for misleading the thread.
That grauniad article is depressing - but predictable.
RichPenny
SubscriberWhy the delay? If new cases are higher now than they will be in 2 weeks, wouldn’t you want people using PT to be covering faces from now? Can anyone explain the logic here?
Give people time to prepare? There'll need to be a pretty big public information campaign too.
Kelvin, richpenny,
At last. I've been wearing a mask in confined public spaces for 2 months and it was beginning to get embarrassing given the minimal uptake in face coverings here in Manchester. The growing ambivalence to protocols since the easing of lockdown from VE day onwards has seen that minimal observance drop even lower, leading me to complacency, forgetting my mask on a couple of occasions as I've set off out the door.
Why it wasn't enforced a couple of months ago escapes me entirely. Back in early April I was on here masquerading as the masked crusader, trying to convince others of the benefits of us all using face coverings. It was a lonely position, getting called hysterical and simply wrong on a number of occasions. So I can't just blame the government, there's Turkey's voting for Christmas everywhere, even on mountain bikes.
Baldness a risk factor?
It was a lonely position, getting called hysterical and simply wrong on a number of occasions
You had a couple of allies, I posted on minimum infective dose and the viral load reduction of different types of masks. Quite quickly the French government admitted that the advice that masks weren't effective was to stop a rush on masks. As soon as they'd assured their supplies they did a mea-culpa and reversed the advice with tutorials on how to make your own - about six weeks ago, and then enforced masks on transport when people had had time to make or buy them.
NHS stats showing Hospital deaths for Uk down to very low levels now. Under 40s zero for a few days. Very good news, not trying to be provocative but this thing looks like it’s run it’s course in the Uk to me, touch wood.
It was a lonely position, getting called hysterical and simply wrong on a number of occasions.
Many of us said both why it wasn’t being mandated back then, and also why it would be at some point. Welcome to that point.
Under 40s zero for a few days. Very good news, not trying to be provocative but this thing looks like it’s run it’s course in the Uk to me, touch wood.
It's obviously good to have no deaths in a particular age group over a period of a few days, but under 40s have accounted for less than one percent of Covid deaths in the UK, so it isn't quite as reassuring as you'd think.
Apparently we're still meeting the criteria for Stage 4 on the government's plan, which they said would require the reintroduction of lockdown, so it's all a bit confusing, isn't it?
Far too early to say CV19 has run it's course in the UK.
R rate is still close to 1.
Recent mass gatherings with some participants wearing masks and social distancing generally not being complied should be causes of concern.
Lots of talk about vaccine development but testing is in very early stages; it would be sensible to assume that a vaccine is a minimum of 12 months away - and may not be developed - and modify behaviour accordingly.
This is a long way from over... should have enforced a complete lock down for the next 30 days.
Also there are parts of our economy that are no longer viable and at some point we have to accept that hospitality in all its forms is going to be reduced to a minimal service. Travel fuel car manufacturers public transport are all going to have to be scaled back.
Even with a vaccine some where down the road its not going to reset.
The parties over this is the new normal
Colleagues at 3 hospitals have all said they've seen a rise in New admissions
But it's fine....
I didn't want to link to the unherd video of this but now the telegraph have it at the top of their webpage
It's an interesting idea, but his models desperately lack any hard data
https://twitter.com/ClarkeMicah/status/1268519958226636800
Edukator,
Yes, I did have a few allies and appreciated your input, especially when you showed us what France was doing with regards masks, manufacturing and distributing the masks by the million in preparation for lockdown easing. I thought that the French action might spur our Government (and some anti-maskers) into life, all be it belatedly..... Fat chance!
This is exactly the ‘takeaway’ impression that ministers were hoping for. Vague messaging, weak measures, and then when the predictable thing happens, it’s all the public’s fault for being naughty.
Cue Importance of spin doctor over scientist.
Spain pretty much had armed coppers Stopping people driving out of areas without a valid reason but We’ve got a Well documented instance of a man driving 260miles here whilst infected.
No-one likes house arrest indefinitely.
People aren’t really that different governments have Gotta sorta take the hard decisions and make you do what is required via clear messaging and enforcement.
I don’t like mixing Covid and politics but I’m not seeing clear messaging and enforcement going on, I’m seeing ****ery.
How much influence has austerity across all departments had on the weakness of our response?
Lack of NHS staff - unable to run normal services and CV. Staff working multiple wards and cross infection.
Police reduced numbers - no way we could enforce quarantine like France and Spain.
Bigger school class sizes - social distancing not possible.
Local govt cuts - responsible for care sector and insufficient funding.
Plenty more I’m sure.
There are national resilience tests that we've failed too. The Govt via the regulators punish the utility companies if they do not meet their targets. However when the Govt fail their own resilience test they just DGAF
Labour weren't great at this but the last 10 years of Tory austerity has made this even worse.
Resilience is about the ability to cope with situations and then respond to them. Boris and chums wouldn't know what to do if they ran out of petrol nevermind facing the biggest crisis in 80 years.
Lack of NHS staff – unable to run normal services and CV. Staff working multiple wards and cross infection.
Not local to here there's not, lots of folks at the hospital with bugger all to do, our local hospitals thankfully never got near the levels that would've required other services to close, but we had to guard against that possibility.
Taking my non-political stance,I’d say it hasn’t helped but tbh earlier lockdown and more preparation would have reduced numbers of infected and let us out of lockdown earlier, earlier and less, less strain on the system, more time to get testing and tracking in place.
The issue I have is in politicising Covid it will allow people to simply dismiss the facts as its ‘politics‘ when they need to be looking hard at how bad it’s been handled.
Police reduced numbers – no way we could enforce quarantine like France and Spain.
Police in England were neutered by briefings. Whenever they tried to make it clear for people to stay put, the media got all excited, and number ten would do anonymous briefing against the police action. It wasn’t about police numbers, it was about lack of government leadership.
The issue I have is in politicising Covid it will allow people to simply dismiss the facts as its ‘politics‘ when they need to be looking hard at how bad it’s been handled.
This is why I'm concerned by all the people accusing the government of murder/eugenics - too many will dismiss it as too extreme and stop taking any notice.
I'm not after an enquiry to pin the blame on people/parties. It will take too long and cost too much. I want an enquiry to identify where the wrong decisions were made, from planning and preparations over 20 years right through the crisis, to find out why, identity what should have been done and when, and make sure we do it better in the future.
Blame will be pretty obvious after that process anyway
In the end, a decision on how much and when to curb the freedoms of the population is entirely a political one, however much it is or isn't influenced by advice from scientists.
Politics isn't some abstract ivory tower concept, it is about the nitty gritty of every big social issue. 'Stop making it political' is an impossible request.
The issue of competence in government is vital at this moment, however much those who 'lead' us would like to avoid difficult questions about their mistakes. Those who tell us that this isn't the time and place for scrutiny of their actions and inactions are generally those who are desperate not to address their failings.
Good luck with that MCTD.
I don’t like mixing Covid and politics
Clearly there is the virus, the disease, its epidemiology, but anything and everything that happened beyond the first handful of cases, the government handling, societal response, all has politics inevitably chucked in.
Those who tell us that this isn’t the time and place for scrutiny of their actions and inactions are generally those who are desperate not to address their failings
Precisely.
I get audited at work at varying stages of project completion, and if the audit isn't successful the customers tend to get a whole lot of fixes done for free. It's thoroughly unsurprising how accountable for their own quality of output everyone becomes in that environment.
Swerving any scrutiny tells you everything you need to know about how good a job they are really doing.
Lack of NHS staff – unable to run normal services and CV. Staff working multiple wards and cross infection.
Not local to here there’s not, lots of folks at the hospital with bugger all to do, our local hospitals thankfully never got near the levels that would’ve required other services to close, but we had to guard against that possibility.
Our trust didn't get near to those levels either but there are certainly not lots of folks here doing "bugger all" There's an awful lot of work going into the backlog that has resulted from re configuring our services while at the same time keeping one eye any possible resurgence (although Covid certainly hasn't gone away). Meanwhile routine procedures have been slowed due to Covid requirements.
Lack of NHS staff – unable to run normal services and CV. Staff working multiple wards and cross infection.
Not local to here there’s not, lots of folks at the hospital with bugger all to do, our local hospitals thankfully never got near the levels that would’ve required other services to close, but we had to guard against that possibility.
Same for my wife working in a hospital in the South West they were geared up for an onslaught that never happened (but they had to be ready) She did mention this morning when we were watching the news that the number of ICU cases is starting to increase slightly. I do wonder if the areas that have had very few cases (like the South West) are more likely to have bigger second spikes (if there are any) because there must be very little immunity.
On vaccines.
The Oxford stage 1 results showed
protected six monkeys from pneumonia, but the animals’ noses harboured as much virus as did those of unvaccinated monkeys
So does that mean they are potentially (assuming it passes human phase 2 & 3 trials) looking at a vaccine which doesn't exactly vaccinate in the conventional sense, but does remove the possibility of a deep and serious life threatening lung infection - whilst not preventing a standard cold type nose/throat infection..?
Would it actually go to production and widescale use, with that caveat?
eskay, are you suggesting that the current steps might be ever so slightly London focused, with little regard for (and knowledge of) what is happening elsewhere?
So does that mean they are potentially (assuming it passes human phase 2 & 3 trials) looking at a vaccine which doesn’t exactly vaccinate in the conventional sense, but does remove the possibility of a deep and serious life threatening lung infection – whilst not preventing a standard cold type nose/throat infection..?
And presumably does not affect onward transmission greatly, so you would need a higher coverage to protect those who could not be vaccinated.
That's a good point, there would be no kind of herd immunity achieved with a "partial vaccine".
Still, the pubs open in 10 days, so we can all go out and get spreading.
Still, the pubs open in 10 days, so we can all go out and get spreading.
Only of we've met those oh so important standards.....🙄
On the delay of implementing the face covering on public transport to 15 June, its partly down to not expecting significant changes in patronage between now and then, but also the time taken to enshrine it in law. Reasonably easy to do on bus and train, less so on other modes and a bit of a nightmare on trams. I was only told at 2pm that the SoS was making the announcement at 5pm yesterday so somewhat fast moving.
Still, the pubs open in 10 days, so we can all go out and get spreading.
At least the countryside might be nicer again if they are able to go down the pub again at a weekend!
I have no idea how it'll be possible to open pubs. Book a table like you would in a restaurant, and table service only? Best of luck trying to distance folk when they're pished.
I saw a headline 'only 1 in a 1000 people now have Covid', sounds a bit healthier than 68,000.
So does that mean they are potentially (assuming it passes human phase 2 & 3 trials) looking at a vaccine which doesn’t exactly vaccinate in the conventional sense, but does remove the possibility of a deep and serious life threatening lung infection – whilst not preventing a standard cold type nose/throat infection..?
Would it actually go to production and widescale use, with that caveat?
Short answer is yes it would still be useful and they'd still release it of there was nothing else *but* there are 90 vaccines in development worldwide and at least 8 of them have worked perfectly in primates so you'd have to assume the Oxford one won't progress if there are loads of brilliant alternative vaccines around. (Or maybe none of them will work in humans!)
Detail here, starting with the Oxford one:
…current steps might be ever so slightly London focused, with little regard for (and knowledge of) what is happening elsewhere?
…well …no one will be surprised at this:
https://twitter.com/jenwilliamsmen/status/1268890254032932865?s=21
It will be interesting to see if there is any government response if this is backed up by more data. In theory they should be reversing lockdown relaxation in certain areas.
An assertion that R0 is .7-.9 in England seems optimistic given the chart above. Seems much more likely to be hovering at or above 1 pretty much everywhere.
It's at this point that we get into the political ramifications of asking folk to get back into lockdown almost immediately after leaving it, even if it's the right thing to do at that moment.
there are 90 vaccines in development worldwide and at least 8 of them have worked perfectly in primates
I've watched your vid and eight of the variants worked in one study which is trying different variants using the same technique (one monkey per vaccine if I've understood correctly and 8 monkey were protected) but the total number of monkeys vaccinated with the variants was only 25 so he reproducability is unknown and the length of protection is an unknown - hard to talk about worked perfectly when there were so few monkeys successfully protected and we have no idea how long that induced protection lasts - especially given the type of vaccine used.
Thanks for linking the vid, we can all make up our own minds, I was left with the impression that the guy hadn't fully understood the practicalities of how the second study he covered worked himself and he left me with as many questions as answers. A few references as to where he'd got his information from would have helped, showing them would have been even better.
It's a bit like nuclear fussion, the more vaccine trials I read the further we seem from a working commercial power producing reactor.
Over 3 months the average deaths in the UK are around 500 per day, thats the same run rate as British military deaths in WW1, the current run rate is around 250 deaths per day the same run rate as the British military Deaths in WW2.
However no ones printing casualty lists....
But you have to live in a shed* in your parents garden when you escape.
[* may not actually be a shed]
I do remember when the UK epidemic kicked in, in London mostly, that it wouldn't be fair to impose a London-only lockdown.
We're all in this together, team.
Short answer is yes it would still be useful and they’d still release it of there was nothing else *but* there are 90 vaccines in development worldwide and at least 8 of them have worked perfectly in primates so you’d have to assume the Oxford one won’t progress if there are loads of brilliant alternative vaccines around. (Or maybe none of them will work in humans!)
I’ve watched your vid and eight of the variants worked in one study which is trying different variants using the same technique (one monkey per vaccine if I’ve understood correctly and 8 monkey were protected) but the total number of monkeys vaccinated with the variants was only 25 so he reproducability is unknown and the length of protection is an unknown – hard to talk about worked perfectly when there were so few monkeys successfully protected and we have no idea how long that induced protection lasts – especially given the type of vaccine used.
No, I think you've got the wrong end of the stick about the detail, but it's irrelevant to my point. I'm saying the Oxford Vaccine seems flawed from the start but could still be useful. HOWEVER, there are many other trials and several have already appeared more promising than the Oxford one so potentially the Oxford one will be redundant. (Or maybe none of them will work in humans!)
What I am emphatically NOT saying is that it's a dead cert that one of these 90 vaccines will work. Quite the opposite, if one of the vaccines work I *still* have a feeling that even the best case time scale for vaccines may still be too late.
I was left with the impression that the guy hadn’t fully understood the practicalities of how the second study he covered worked himself and he left me with as many questions as answers.
No probs, just follow the provided links and read them for yourself, I only link to his vids 'cos it's a useful source of links an I can't be bothered to read them/quote them myself. (Personally I think his vids are brilliant FWIW.)
But you have to live in a shed* in your parents garden when you escape.
Dancing to Abba at a family party is also required. Reportedly.
the Roche antibody tests are beining rolled out to NHS staff & 4 colleagues have all had it done & come back negative
Not sure if thats good or bad, 2 of them were certain theyd had it and all reckon theyd been exposed without PPE
understand the roche one has a higher than advertised false negative rate tho
and inevitiable R would rise (anecdotally theyve all said new cases appearing again in last few days)
Madame had the Roche test and it was negative. She's left wondering what she had if it wasn't Covid. Roche claim 0% false negatives in an article in www.industrie-techno.com A nurse at the local hospital had the test after treating Covid patients and having symptoms and that came back negative too.
Had my plasma test back. Not enough antibodies to give it to a patient. But not no antibodies. So I’ve had it.
As for that oxford vaccine. He who makes the most noise seldom wears the crown. It’s not going to work. The preclinical data are not encouraging, and with results like that for any other vaccine it would be terminated before an efficacy trial.
I don’t get excited by R. But I do get worried about evidence of exponential growth rates turning positive. I’ve run some outlier analyses and there are some hotspots of case reporting. I’m in the process of writing code to make maps (new skill for me).
Oh and forget hydroxychloroquine monotherapy. It doesn’t work. They’ve halted that arm of the recovery trial. Whether combination with azithromycin as an anti-inflammatory works is still moot and not being tested in that trial.
Something I predicted two months ago and also now published.
Madame had the Roche test and it was negative. She’s left wondering what she had if it wasn’t Covid. Roche claim 0% false negatives in an article
never trust the marketing bumpf!
PHE found otherwise
Considering the margin of error in these estimates gives ranges from 8% to 20% for Roche and 2% to 12% for Abbott.
PHE tests are propagating the test uncertainty using Bayesian methods. This leads to wide credibility intervals. Better than saying the tests aren’t useful. Something I also did when the first seroprevalence studies were published. Some movement in policy is a good thing.