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IME it’s very rarely ever actual ‘locals’ that moan about this sort of thing, it’s always folk who move there, and then moan like **** about others coming to visit
This was (largely) the same in the Peak District too, the handful of signs going up about GO HOME COVIDIOT CYCLISTS and the ranting on local Facebook groups - it's from people who've moved/retired to the twee countryside and want it exactly as the rose-tinted pictures and stories promised them about "unspoilt wilderness, beautiful scenery, relaxed way of life".
While still wanting to drive off to Sheffield or Manchester every day for their conveniences.
Before coronavirus, the common one was people who move in within 200m of the village church and then moan about bell-ringing upsetting the peaceful Sunday morning.
Grim news for Wales
Is there a Rugby link perhaps? Wales v Italy?
That would have produced an earlier peak. This looks more like sustained community transmission - perhaps lockdown beginning to fail from a few weeks back in the more densely populated towns.
Although the numbers might be misleading to a degree, the important thing is that those who need a test are getting access to one and the results are quickly nproduced.So even if its 40k per day so what, the government cant force people to come forward to get tested, dont know why they dont just say that’s the case of it is.
BIGLY NUMBER SOUNDS BIGLY AND IMPRESSIVE!
They're not saying because it's a total epic disaster. They've deliberately hidden numbers within numbers, counted tests twice, counted tests "mailed out to be done at home" as a completed test in the same way that a clinical test is counted, there's no record of HOW MANY PEOPLE have been tested and what the reliability of those tests are, it's simply giving a big number that sounds like they're Doing Things.
The Office of National Statistics wrote a lovely letter to the useless Mr Hancock effectively telling him to stop lying. It's made it incredibly difficult to actually track virus rates, R0, and so on because they've changed the way the figures are gathered and counted on a near daily basis.
You could look at it in a couple of ways:
They know they've screwed up big time and are trying to hide it.
They're too incompetent to count properly.
I genuinely don't know which of those it is.
Thanks Kelvin, will try and get time to listen
The Office of National Statistics wrote a lovely letter to the useless Mr Hancock effectively telling him to stop lying. It’s made it incredibly difficult to actually track virus rates, R0, and so on because they’ve changed the way the figures are gathered and counted on a near daily basis.
One of the only figures I look for now is hospital admissions with suspected Covid 19. While you're always a hostage to accurate reporting to some degree, at least that figure should provide a snapshot of infections in the area about 7-10 days or so before that.
Agree with admissions as the most likely to be accurate. Deaths also looks quite reliable, with a bigger lag.
Anything else is just bullshine from the muddy funsters in power.
That would have produced an earlier peak. This looks more like sustained community transmission
Torfaen was a hotspot straight away. I seem to remember there was some link to an Italian event..? But once there are more people in an area, then continued transmission is also going to be higher.
yeah, we knew they were lying
kimbers - good story, if true; there are questions about its veracity.
Welsh schools are all going back at the end of June! This includes all years but not at the same time...roughly a third per day.
Seems to have taken most people, including this governor, by surprise.
mrmonkfinger
Member
Agree with admissions as the most likely to be accurate. Deaths also looks quite reliable, with a bigger lag.
But every now and then they seem to chuck in a few extra that were 'previously unaccounted for'. Is that because they are trying to make a particular day(s) better than it actually was?? The problem is that you cannot believe any of the stats they tell you anymore.
So, at PMQs the PM told us we are still at alert level four. So… what did he (or whoever was PM at the time) tell us the action should be in that case…?
Back into lockdown
But every now and then they seem to chuck in a few extra that were ‘previously unaccounted for’. Is that because they are trying to make a particular day(s) better than it actually was??
At the moment, almost all weekend figures are quite low, presumably because reporting just doesn't catch up until mon/tue. Easily averaged out though.
At the moment, almost all weekend figures are quite low, presumably because reporting just doesn’t catch up until mon/tue. Easily averaged out though.
I know that's not what you meant, but, as an aside, it's amazing how quickly we've gone from being panic stricken at a few new cases in Brighton to saying - 'only 100 deaths today, that's a lot better, isn't it!'.
Aye the acceptance of new normals doesn't take long, does it?. Scotland will be down into single figures soon, I'm sure that number makes some think it's okay to do as they please...
To be fair, it's a lot better than 1000/day of early/mid April.
Still not low enough though.
Success looks like S. Korea or Germany to my uneducated eyes.
Welsh schools are all going back at the end of June! This includes all years but not at the same time…roughly a third per day.
Seems to have taken most people, including this governor, by surprise.
Our school has been expecting / planning for reopening for a few weeks now. Although I don't think anyone was expecting this 3rds thing.
Maybe it's the disappointment showing, but it's seems 'worst of both worlds' to me. Not nearly enough to help the economy or really have a positive effect on education, but exposes Teachers and staff.
It's put me in a very, very difficult position. I came back to work this week, I'm here this week end next whilst my Wife finishes off her Bereavement Leave. I was hoping / expecting that I may have to go back to WFH for a week and then I'd be able to work again up to the Summer Hols, our Summer childcare provision is based on Schools being open, but we don't know how that will stack up now.
Now, I'n here for 2 weeks, then home for a week, then possibly coming in for 1 or 2 days a week until, well possibly September. Although they may allow children of key Workers to let their kids go in full-time, but whilst the Welsh Gov says that "either parent" our school quiet militantly said "only if BOTH parents are key workers". I am a key worker, but I don't work in the Public sector so they didn't count me.
Thinking about it on a national Level, our competitors in England are open, we're only 'sort of' because half of us have Primary School age kids. Most of our clients are in Wales and in a similar position.
The Teaching Unions of course are dead against it, but I can't think of a plan they wouldn't be against short of 'No School until there's a Vaccine', but with 25% of Teachers being Furloughed and numbers rising, how many will want to be out of work until September.
I know that’s not what you meant, but, as an aside, it’s amazing how quickly we’ve gone from being panic stricken at a few new cases in Brighton to saying – ‘only 100 deaths today, that’s a lot better, isn’t it!’.
I know what you mean, but it's not like COVID isn't' dominating every part of the Media and frankly our lives.
I don't think anyone is rejoicing because only 100 people died, but because fewer people are dying every day.
Plus there's some evidence coming out of Italy that the Virus is evolving to be a better Virus, I.E. one that doesn't kill it's host. "Viral Loads" whatever they in new patients are much lower than before.
I don’t think anyone is rejoicing because only 100 people died,
I just thought that it's interesting to see how much our perspective on the stats has changed in a few weeks. I mean, the government is using that reaction as the supporting force for lockdown decisions. If we'd been at 50-100 deaths a day in March, with no lockdown, people would be tearing their hair out. I was pretty much doing that in the weeks running up to lockdown, with only a handful of deaths.
Viral load is the amount of virus particles in a sample taken from an infected patient. If a patient has a high viral load, it follows that they are more likely to shed large amounts of virus when they cough etc. So are more likely to infect others. Not sure about the relationship between viral load and mortality. There has been some implication that people exposed to a high infectious dose (health workers etc) are more likely to die, but not sure the science really supports that.
I was pretty much doing that in the weeks running up to lockdown, with only a handful of deaths.
I'm still pretty much doing that now that the chumps in charge are starting to ease lockdown with only our world beating track and trace system to fall back on.
Well two and a half months after having symptoms Madame has just had a negative antibody test. So it seems she had something else, unless... .
Considering all the Anti- Ibuprofen stuff a few months ago….
It's a trial, nothing wrong with testing a hypothesis (provided the trial is adequately powered to do so).
In other news, you may have missed the first data for the moderate remdesivir trial. Not yet published, but a press release here https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20200601005310/en/Gilead-Announces-Results-Phase-3-Trial-Remdesivir
Gilead's shares fell on the news. Some signal of a modest improvement in the 5-day treatment group but not the 10-day group (why would that be?). I'm not holding my breath for the final data (this was a headline), nor the data in the severe population. The entry criteria for this moderate trial (O2 > 94% on room air) would not get you admitted to a UK hospital, so it will be interesting to see the breakdown of patients by country.
Analysis of video footage obtained subsequently suggests that this was not the case
As a left leaning voter, Skwawkbox, along with the Canary and Novara, are “news” organisations I avoid religiously. They increasingly seem to exist solely to keep the Tories in power, and have a bit of a laugh (and earn some money) at the expense of people that adversely effects. Don’t legitimise them by sharing their nonsense BillMC. Plenty of real journalists that need our engagement and support.
The French advice to avoid Ibuprofen was based the fact it surpressed the immune sytem in the early stages of illness and that all the young victims of Covid in France had been found to have taken Ibuprofen. This latest study using Ibuprofen in the later stages when the problem is more often the immune system over reacting and an immuno-surpressant might be useful.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52904433
I'm astonished that our world beating Track and Trace system is completely dysfunctional. Didn't see that one coming at all. I assume that our careful, science-led Government of experts wouldn't dream of lying to us about the efficacy of their world beating invention...?
So how does Track and Trace work if you dont know the names of the people you chatted with while infectious?
1) Dave from the Park with the dog
2) Mark (or maybe Gary) his son was in the same swimming class as my son 4 years ago
3) Bob - has an Orange 5. 26er.
etc.
Well obviously 3) is going to get it. On malicious grounds alone. I think you already know the answer. I’d be surprised if they trace more than five contacts for a case. I caught the 8:50 to Waterloo. I was on the train for 45 minutes...
https://twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/status/1268256786747883533?s=19
Let's see if they all self isolate
https://twitter.com/KingOfSunshine/status/1268265103499108353?s=19
Please tell me Sharma was next to Jacob Rees-Mogg
Just when you thought the government couldnt fk things up any more
https://twitter.com/lisanandy/status/1268262686825070594
should they not ALL be self isolating now, or are they waiting for the phone call from the worlds best track and trace system?
It's ok, they were all social distancing so they will be safe (sadly this may be true for a lot of them, despite the fact a good dose of this might give them a much needed reality check, i know this is bad ofme,but please please let rees mogg get it
they werent able to self isolate at all times
https://twitter.com/BenPBradshaw/status/1267879200855396355
In which case I really really hope the minister for the 18th century gets it. Utter stupidity, all in the name of getting some bojo supporters in to pmqs and giving an illusion that us plebs should go back to work as our masters are
3) Bob – has an Orange 5. 26er.
Should ride a 29er. 3" more social distance.
Sorry to divert, did anyone else feel that Vallance and Whitt’s came across as somewhat more nervous regarding the current state of infections / R today?
I have the nerve wracking feeling they know somethings coming.
I’s say cautious rather than nervous. As we all should be at this point.
I have the nerve wracking feeling they know somethings coming.
colleague at west london hospital said theyd had no new cases for 5 days
then 15 in last 36 hours
Im sure CMO has up to date figures for admissions across country
A quick and balanced look back on the Swedish approach so far:
https://apnews.com/9598f7ad95967e4d6f507d526dce0c68
Anyone watch the newsnight report on social care. Awful. A decent organisation trying to do the right thing for their residents and staff. 10% of residents died. Three staff. No testing was available. At all. They saw a doubling of death rate. Which is in line with the excess deaths estimates. And a high proportion of asymptomatic cases. Which in that population is interesting.
Well, Johnson is proud…
https://twitter.com/bbcnewsnight/status/1268299584117379074?s=21
They’re hoping no one will think about excess deaths outside hospitals, or compare our ongoing death rates with other countries.
Dispatches and Newsnight both essential viewing tonight. This government has failed, and is still failing.
Yep, ludicrous leftie earpiece conspiracy emphatically denied by the Express, Sun and Metro.
We're doing so well! There were 324 deaths announced yesterday for UK, EU 27 announced 323 deaths for the day.
We’re doing so well! There were 324 deaths announced yesterday for UK, EU 27 announced 323 deaths for the day.
HOw much of that is down to the government and how much down to the idiots that live in this country ?
I think it is difficult to say, especially if the guidance given for how to reduce risk is not clear and leadership is not setting a good example.
People will be idiots (as has been seen), no matter who they are, and that idiocy might have an impact on the sensible people that genuinely are trying to do the right thing.
HOw much of that is down to the government and how much down to the idiots that live in this country ?
Impossible to say, if the government hadn't sat on their hands for 3 weeks in march? The only clear message we have had through all of this (from westminster anyway) was the initial lockdown, it's been a pollution of buffoonery ever since - getting MP's back into westminster for example, an MP is the very epitome of the type of role that can be done from home.
Watch Sturgeon the same day as you watch BawJaws, you'll see the difference in clarity. The problem for us up here is that there's a section of dyed in the wool unionists that will listen to BawJaws instead, as they see the SNP as the devil incarnate.
Of course it's difficult, but look at the Rubbish thread, the Costa/McDonlads, the beaches, the parks... That's at least as much down to the society we have as the government. I'm not saying the gov have done it right, not by a long way... But the society in this country is now becoming as much of a factor as the Gov in this. You can have as many messages as you want now, people are clearly ignoring them anyway.
You can have as many messages as you want now
That's the problem, it only worked when we had that one clear message, late march, stay at home. BawJaws then ****ed off and put all and sundry up on a daily basis and diluted the message to the point that the great unwashed don't give a **** any more.
You can defend the cabal all you want, but this whole thing is their responsibility, you wanted the power BawJaws, get on with it.
But knowing the society we have, the Gove decided “people will be sensible” rather than actually enforce rules.
Ok, the fact they have run down police numbers so proper enforcement isn’t possible is a big factor....
You can defend the cabal all you want, but this whole thing is their responsibility, you wanted the power BawJaws, get on with it.
I'm not defending anyone, i'm not discussing the politics of it... I'm just making a point. Not everything has to be about your side winning, someone elses being wrong... It can just be a discussion about the situation we're in... Don't make it political all the time fella.
Weeksy has a good point we all have to take some responsibility for our actions
That said other countries have maintained much stricter discipline, were not really that different from Spain, Italy or France or even Germany who now have far less daily deaths than us thanks to sticking to those rules, when it mattered.
As those countries that locked down sooner and/or tighter were emerging from lockdown I think we as a society & government looked on enviously & decided we deserve the same.
I'm this instance we really are all in it together, unfortunately the failure has been from the political elites , as well as wider society
Don’t make it political all the time fella.
You asked a question about the government or the peoples fault, that's a political question, I only responded as I see it. I've repeatedly, as have others, on this thread asked to keep it on track with regards to the topic, I wanna listen to certain people with relevant knowledge on this, not the brexit echo chamber type thread.
HOw much of that is down to the government and how much down to the idiots that live in this country ?
This is exactly the 'takeaway' impression that ministers were hoping for. Vague messaging, weak measures, and then when the predictable thing happens, it's all the public's fault for being naughty.
A week may be a long time in politics, but, it's when you're talking about trying to put the brakes on a pandemic which doubles every two to three days, it's a ****ing eternity.
I’m not defending anyone, i’m not discussing the politics of it… I’m just making a point.
And your point is?
This is exactly the ‘takeaway’ impression that ministers were hoping for.
Exactly
Of course it’s difficult, but look at the Rubbish thread, the Costa/McDonlads, the beaches, the parks… That’s at least as much down to the society we have as the government.
You could argue that an essential part of good government is coming up with policies and strategies that take the characteristics of your society into account. If your policies don't work, then you can't just throw your hands up and walk away because, 'people'. You have to devise policies that work. Equally if you choose to undermine your own messaging with stuff like the Cummmings fiasco, then it's arguably not surprising that some 'people' don't then take it seriously.
Plenty of other countries have managed the pandemic far more effectively than us, what you seem to be saying is that British people are uniquely stupid. But even if that were the case, the government is still responsible for coming up with measures that work with that population. If they can't do that, it's a failure of government.
In reality it's probably a bit of both - some people are hard to get through to - because mostly that's how things roll, but the job of a government is to take that into account and create policies that work. Is the British population uniquely dim? I find that hard to believe.
How’s it all going in Sweden then?
In reality it’s probably a bit of both
Very much so and i said that above. But a chunk of the British people do indeed seem more stupid than other countries. Even taking into account the messages being a bit/lot vague, some of the UK still are using common sense.. but plenty of them are just being completley daft about it.
Is the British population uniquely dim? I find that hard to believe.
Clearly yes, because you can still self police, you can still be safe.. Just because someone says "it's ok to do XYZ" doesn't mean you HAVE to... Myself and many others are ignoring a chunk of the freedom and still sticking to the exclusions... But some, are not... And our 'some' seems bigger than other countries 'some'
But the society in this country is now becoming as much of a factor as the Gov in this.
Well, there I was thinking that people wouldn’t buy it, but passing the blame to the public is obviously working on some people.
some of the UK still are using common sense
This means nothing.
How’s it all going in Sweden then?
Looks like a fairly similar rate to here tbh, a bit lower but without the same level of lockdown. Lots more dead than their neighbours though, who are all in the low hundred compared to nigh on 5000 in Sweden. In that article they seem to admit that they'd be a bit stricter in hindsight.
Clearly yes, because you can still self police, you can still be safe.. Just because someone says “it’s ok to do XYZ” doesn’t mean you HAVE to…
So following gov advice is being stupid, no doubt I'm being stupid by returning to school before the cases have reduced to a manageable level?
deadlydarcy
Member
How’s it all going in Sweden then?
Well, it is sunny outside and life is going on. A fair few people wearing masks outside now and people generally avoid physical contact (even more than usual). Numbers on public transport are down, working from home is up. People are still dying, people are still doing stupid things, people are generally being people.
I think we could maybe have done some things better, but some things could have been far, far worse
People are still dying, people are still doing stupid things, people are generally being people.
But they are clever Scandi's not stupid Brits, how confusing.
So following gov advice is being stupid, no doubt I’m being stupid by returning to school before the cases have reduced to a manageable level?
Whether you're being stupid is open to debate... I wouldn't... but doesn't mean you cannot. I applaud you for doing so and looking after kids... but it's a position i'd really not want to find myself in and given the choice, i'd say no.
I've got to go to work for the first time in 3 months next week for 2-3 hours. The building has basically been closed for that 3 months, yet i'm still wary about going in.
Whether you’re being stupid is open to debate… I wouldn’t… but doesn’t mean you cannot. I applaud you for doing so and looking after kids… but it’s a position i’d really not want to find myself in and given the choice, i’d say no.
So for clarity if I go work because the gov said I had to and get ill is it my fault for being stupid or there's?
I’ve got to go to work for the first time in 3 months next week for 2-3 hours
Arent you lucky, I've been in work for 4hours a week throughout, does that make you cleverer than me?
What about those thicko drs and nurses?
Whats interesting about sweden is that they still expect to take the same economic hit as their neighbours, partly because the disruption of a partial lockdown not much different from a full one & partly because they are just as globalised as anyone else & exposed to same headwinds
I can understand that Weeksy and feel the same way about my office. Hell, I have only met my boss three times since I started work at the new job.
I saw some friends here for the first time in months yesterday. Having to stand apart and not greet either of them with a hug was really, really difficult.
Arent you lucky, I’ve been in work for 4hours a week throughout, does that make you cleverer than me?
LOL WTF, where on earth did you leap to that conclusion from ? I never once said that, don't be throwing things like that into what i wrote, i never even thought that let alone wrote it.
LOL WTF, where on earth did you leap to that conclusion from ? I never once said that
Whether you’re being stupid is open to debate… I wouldn’t
Seems clear to me, obviously too stupid to understand you outpourings
sure, apologies.
I think you've taken Weeksy out of context AA, I understand what he means.
Anyway:
But they are clever Scandi’s not stupid Brits, how confusing
It makes me wonder, we've been lambasting our fellow Brits but in reality, maybe its a global similarity? Bob - Spain? Anyone here who can comment on on Italy?
I hear through snippets but have done no research that Japan has been one of the most obedient and least affected, is that true?
I think you’ve taken Weeksy out of context AA
So following gov advice is being stupid, no doubt I’m being stupid by returning to school before the cases have reduced to a manageable level?
Whether you’re being stupid is open to debate… I wouldn’
In context and clear in message, I havent misunderstood anything!
Spain’s cock ups and mismanagement on this crisis are something else and would warrant a whole new thread. Whilst the country is crumbling economically the politicians are having pointless esoteric conversations.
Spain has done astonishingly well IMO. They had far less warning, had a tsunami sized first wave in Madrid and Barcelona and locked down properly in response. The result? Well have a look at the numbers. Down to single digit deaths for a week and around 300 new cases a day which is what's reckoned to be manageable in terms of tracing and suggest deaths will stay in single digits.
Compare that with Sweden where the virus tail is wagging the dog.
HOw much of that is down to the government and how much down to the idiots that live in this country ?
I think the number of fines issued in other European countries suggests that being an idiot is not just a British problem, but focusing on it, rather than poor leadership and government possibly is.
A few people are using the "our daily deaths exceeded the rest of Europe combined" stat. Is it looking even worse than it is due to them being 2-3 weeks ahead of us anyway?
There were 324 deaths announced yesterday for UK, EU 27 announced 323 deaths for the day.
Only 7-day average matters due to reporting. Excess deaths is the metric I'm most interested in. The nursing home experience mimics that data I've analysed; peak of 3x higher mortality rate in 85+ and an average over the epidemic of 2x. Awful.
The Sweden approach sits half-way between hard early lockdown of its neighbours, and the missed-the-boat dither-and-delay lockdown of the UK. It provides a useful reference as to what endemic slow-burn R=1 looks like as other countries relax. Spain had a very effective decline - faster than other countries and mimicking what was seen in London.
I've given up on thinking the government are following the science. It looks like Witty and Vallance have the same sentiment.
We would've likely been 2-3 weeks ahead of ourselves had it not been for the 'leadership'.
'Taking responsibility' means placing the responsibility on the shoulders of the public. If the public is thick, I would think no more than anywhere else, as BWD succinctly pointed out, then that should be integrated into policy. From here and elsewhere it seems the guidance is unclear, there were 41 changes to advice to schools in one week, and people are doing their own thing. Yesterday I counted 32 people at one time in the 7 acre park outside my window.
My daughter's meant to be back in the classroom next Monday but I haven't heard about arrangements. We've sort of adjusted quite well and I don't mind not making the commute to Manchester (but certainly miss other bits) and we've no plans to rush back into the social milieu. One of my HP pals works at a university and good gob things are complicated there, balancing the loss of overseas students against dropping grade requirements (which they won't be doing). He's been told to expect to work from home till Xmas and maybe for a year. So the mixed and unclear guidance for me means that I don't trust it and ain't going out. I can't imagine the usuals in my local will be able to keep away and that gives me the great trepidations (feeling ill in the chamber), I await the bad news.
I do think the government misjudged the public, but the wrong way. They thought they would be much less compliant than they turned out to be, so felt they couldn't bring lockdown measures in too early as there would be too much kick-back. Hence the hesitation/delay and what that led to in infections.