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Kelvin - I didn’t realise that you were a noted epidemiologist and an expert in these matters. I’ll be sure to take everything you say as gospel in future.
JP
Have you got an answer for why there are so many multiples of excess deaths yet or are we just going to defend the point that someone told you that it can't be covid?
I should add that the BMJ has stated that only a third of excess deaths in care homes can be explained by COVID, so please find a better counter argument than this.
JP
link please
I know of several instances where deaths have been marked as COVID when the tests came back negative. I’m not making this up and I don’t believe it’s some sort of wide ranging conspiracy – it just undermines my faith in the data
Nowhere near that easy
The reliability of the test is heavily dependent on the quality of the nasopharyngeal swab and that appears to be pretty patchy. In the hospital where I work we have had a whole bunch of patients with "COVID syndrome" (i.e. a barn-door obvious case of significant severity) who don't test positive until we've done several tests over a week or more. Either the virus isn't always detectable in the upper airways or (maybe and) the swabs aren't all perfectly done
There may well be some others who die of a hearty/stroke/whatever but who do test positive on admission. Are they dying of it or with it ? (It does strange things to blood-clotting so actually may well be implicated even if their respiratory system doesn't look all that bad)
I’ll be sure to take everything you say as gospel in future.
Just don’t post something that is made up and not even close to reality. At no point were … “nearly everyone who died in a care home setting — apparently being classed as COVID19 death”. Not even close. It’s make believe.
As your contradictory post hinted at… there are lots of excess deaths in care homes not diagnosed as Covid19 occurring throughout this health emergency. Sadly.
Absolute scenes as British common sense kicks in at local beauty spots.
*slow hand clap everyone*
https://twitter.com/emmalang33/status/1266780455812112387
The reason is that for an explanation of covid, one needs either a pcr teat (none available) or clearly defined clinical symptoms (e.g., fever, cough, myalgia, hypoxia ...). The disease is still in it’s infancy, hence it is harder to diagnose precisely at the individual level in a normally diseased population 85+. But at the population level, the aggregation of thousands of independent events provides the clear signal.
In fact, at the peak, if EVERY 85+ death was ascribed to COVID19, one would have been correct at least 67% of the time. Probably better odds than just guessing (as is current practice). Expecting to sum from bottom up is nonsense, there is no expectation that all cases will have been found.
The bmj is really the doctor’s Union magazine. It’s not a serious journal. And anecdote is not data.
Maybe jjprestidge thinks that all these tens of thousands of people have just dropped dead of...what, fright?
Away with your silly trivial nonsense. Yes there will be a handful who don't go to A&E when they are dying of a (treatable) heart attack. It will be far far less than the number who die of C19 but are not correctly attributed.
Around 60,000 excess deaths now. (64k according to Chris Giles who has been doing the best up to date analysis IMO). Vast majority would have been easily prevented by locking down earlier, and we'd also be in a much better shape for TTI on a smaller daily number of cases.
Who was it that thought it was a good idea to have a bunch of clowns running the country?
My Googlefu is failing me in finding the claim by the BMJ
I'm a scientist too and I'd like to understand the data at a fully granular level but that's nigh impossible. We have to make reasonable assumption based on the evidence, but with accuracy of tests, not running tests on the deceased and so on those assumptions will have to be broad.
I'm going to also suggest there's a third category. There's those that clearly die of Covid-19. There's those that die with Covid-19 (but it might be something else that actually kills them). And then there's also those that die BECAUSE OF Covid-19.
By this, I mean those without Covid-19 but who maybe didn't get the help they needed for fear of going into hospital, or left it too late to get a good outcome - heart attacks, strokes, etc. Those that have missed early cancer diagnoses, and may not be a stat yet but have a far worse prognosis as a result of waiting. Those that maybe lost a job, can't pay their rent, and can't face it any longer. How many of these are attributable to Covid-19?
Could they all have been saved / are they all to be added to the account - IDK. But in the absence of another killer among us what else is there to explain the excess deaths? Sure, there's always variability but that's where folk like TiRed and his analyses and standard deviation/confidence levels comes in. If it isn't Covid-19, and it's not because of Covid-19 - once you get beyond natural variability what else explains the excess?
My next-door neighbour has been exercising his common sense with a BBQ and party all day with about 8 guests :/
There will be a lot of "because of C19" deaths in the future, but most of them won't have happened yet. Think of all the delayed cancer testing and treatment, and lots else besides. Most of them aren't instant/acute but rather the result of poorer outcomes due to delayed diagnosis and treatment. They will play out over the coming months and even years.
As for current deaths, there just aren't that many people having fatal incidents, that would have been saved by medical attention, but who don't attend due to fear of C19.
Similarly for the "died with C19 but not of C19" category. There may be a few but with the typical incidence around 1% at any one time, they are unlikely to make up more than a handful of deaths.
once you get beyond natural variability what else explains the excess?
A lot of the non-attributed excess is due to Covid19, but with misdiagnosis, as we have been learning that the range for symptoms caused by illness due to the virus is wider than at first thought. Yes, there are additional deaths due to the health service not functioning as normal, but it’s hard to add up all the possible causes and get to the current figure. There are also many additional lives being saved during the lock down… people who would have died from non-Covid19 related ways normally but did not. In some age groups the death rate is down compared to other years. This virus is hitting the elderly hard… and the government should have done more to protect those in care homes, and control the virus in the community better/earlier to reduce deaths at home as well.
My mum made it through. Not everyone is lucky enough to be able to say the same.
.
<edit> never seen same link above 🧐
when not throwing Maitlis under the bus, Newsnight is one of TVs finest programes
last night they had a short doccumentary from the first hospital in europe to diagnose covid
ist from about 16 minutes in and its utterly compelling
https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m000jjpm/newsnight-29052020
^ That Newsnight feature was excellent as was Clive Myrie's feature all week from Royal London
In a big surprise to us all, new Sage member comes out saying Government not led by Science
https://twitter.com/michaelsavage/status/1266820479773532168
If your of a nervous disposition, don’t look at this mornings news. House party’s, raves, packed beaches...
I suspect most people don’t need to check the media. The bottle clear up started for my neighbours at 7am. Still going… ‘twas a big night for them and their guests.
People definitely enjoying their new found freedom, unsurprisingly. And, of course, with those freedoms actually starting Monday, the government can hold their hands up and say that if behaviour this weekend results in the virus hanging around at current levels for longer than you might think desirable, it’s not on them.
Thanks for posting as it looks like it has been removed. Quite a damning report.
If your of a nervous disposition, don’t look at this mornings news. House party’s, raves, packed beaches…
TBH some of the ‘packed’ beaches Aren’t ‘that’ packed and it’s the zoom lense clickbait type thing although the one with the helicopters didn’t look too smart.
It’s a tricksy position If you cry wolf over everything it’ll just be used as per the Cumings ‘it’s political defence‘.
(What was it 300 deaths Clocked up before we started lockdown And er now we’re clocking that a day and it’s fine to get rid of it)
And bearing in mind that the most important person in this government is the spin doctor and not the scientists 🙁
Ultimately - I don't have a problem with the Gov* making the decisions and exercising their authority. That is what they are elected to do.
But they must then be accountable for them, not hide behind the advice (or the bit of advice that suits their narrative) while hiding the wider picture.
I'd have a lot more respect if they came out and said that there are competing rationale, but they've decided to do X instead of Y because of a, b and c.....and then be judged on that.
* I do have 'a bit' of an issue with the brainpower and honesty of those that make up the Gov, to be fair. I'm happier with the philosophy of it rather than the current embodiment......
(What was it 300 deaths Clocked up before we started lockdown And er now we’re clocking that a day and it’s fine to get rid of it)
The time between infection in death is about a month so it's not a very good indicator of current infection levels. Keep an eye on new cases and ne hospital admissions as indicators of where we are no which is much beter than a month ago.
Be objective about where transmission has be shown to take place before getting critical of other people's behaviour - confined spaces with people together for long periods. Beaches aren't a problem but busses, trains and planes are. Wear a mask when you enter shops, busses, trains, work places, public services, flats, houses - anywhere you'll meet other people that isn't outdoors.
I’d have a lot more respect if they came out and said that there are competing rationale, but they’ve decided to do X instead of Y because of a, b and c…..and then be judged on that.
Tbh It may be my biased opinion but I don’t feel the fellow presenters were quite expecting Boris to come out with the ‘You can have BBQ’s‘ which sort of makes me wonder if a certain bit of this is made up on the spot as they were very quick to keep reiterating 2m distance and cleaning of the toilet etc.
(Could have been my interpretation but ya know go with your instincts)
I’d rather they put out public information tv add to show exactly how you should have a Covid safe BBQ As opposed to a you can have bbq statement.
People need guidelines and guidance, they used to do it crossing the road adds and the Charlie says 🙂
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52862440
On top of all the other official lockdown reductions starting tomorrow, they now have said the vulnerable people that have been shielded can also go out in England.
Boris is definitely not being steered by the science now, this is another decision makes no sense whatsoever at this time.
Next they will be telling us that the 2m social distancing is being reduced to 1m in the name of making high street shops "safely" opening, while 200+ are dying everyday. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52861993
(What was it 300 deaths Clocked up before we started lockdown And er now we’re clocking that a day and it’s fine to get rid of it)
The time between infection in death is about a month so it’s not a very good indicator of current infection levels. Keep an eye on new cases and ne hospital admissions as indicators of where we are no which is much beter than a month ago.
I’d nicked that from the ‘A different Bias’ YouTube bloke As I think he’s got a valid point for people who aren’t going to dig into It that deep but the point he was making was the same as yours.
One question you guys might be able to answer thats worrying me. I am 90% sure my missus had covid - very mild. I assume as we live in a small flat its highly likely I got some viral load but I never had any symptoms at all. So I am / was an asymptomatic carrier. How long are you an asymptomatic carrier? Does that only last for a week from infection or longer? Does anyone know?
Edukator - outside there is still a risk of transmission - its just that its lower as the bugs dissipate
I agree TJ, it's all about not getting a minimum infective dose. I'm in a similar sitution to you, Madame had symptoms but I didn't, she's got a prescription for an antibody test so we'll find out. Till then i'm assuming I might be a risk to others.
There are reports from both the US and France of asymptomatic people testing positve for live virus for months. read my last post on this thread with a link in it on the last page.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52840763
Could it be that asymptomatic transmission is now driving the infection...
Could the number of asymptomatic infections be way higher than previously thought?
On top of all the other official lockdown reductions starting tomorrow, they now have said the vulnerable people that have been shielded can also go out in England.
Support for shielders, such as food and medicine deliveries, will continue.
Some good news in there. In fact, with much of this, while rules are being relaxed in June, support is continuing well into the summer at least. Feel free to make your own steps towards normal behaviour in July if you want, after we’ve seen a couple of weeks more data and track/trace/isolate is hopefully actually in place. With this particular relaxation, there will he cut off people desperate to see someone… with the right mitigation, it makes sense to signal that they can.
In a big surprise to us all, new Sage member comes out saying Government not led by Science https://twitter.com/michaelsavage/status/1266820479773532168
Fun fact: a long time ago I applied to do a PhD with Graham Medley, doing population modelling of Mongolian gazelles! Turned out the advert was out of date so the Mongolia trip was out, but we had a meeting anyway, and figured we could do something cool. Got as far as completing forms and stuff but then a lack of funding stopped it. So that's three SAGE type people that I've had dealings with (one is my PhD-nephew).
the government can hold their hands up and say that if behaviour this weekend results in the virus hanging around at current levels for longer than you might think desirable, it’s not on them.
They can try but:
They all fought to become the government
They are in charge
They are responsible.
Leaders lead, they don't check where the mob is going and then join in.
They're absolutely clueless (or just making it up as they go along). Raab claimed earlier we're moving from Lvl 4 to 3
https://twitter.com/JimMFelton/status/1267014571304370176?s=20
Raab claimed earlier we’re moving from Lvl 4 to 3
He also clained that we HAVE a "world beating" tracking system, even though other countries like Germany had an advantage from expeience with previous pandemics. These halfwits are really not worth speaking to.
World beating track and trace system you say?,
https://twitter.com/theprolestar/status/1266681680821211137?s=21
Well, we'll have to see what happens with death rates over the next few weeks. Certainly from my POV, the 'lockdown' has been slackening significantly over the last couple of weeks and now many look like they couldn't care less. I think the best we can hope for going forward is that behavioural changes and the closure of pubs and sports events keeps the R coefficient <1. I can't say I have much faith in the technical competence of this government given the incoherent and mixed messages we've had recently. They have also been prepared to compromise their own guidelines and instructions to save Cummings which I find reprehensible and tells us all about their priorities.
I’d rather they put out public information tv add to show exactly how you should have a Covid safe BBQ As opposed to a you can have bbq statement.
I can’t remember if it was Thursday or Friday but Sky news has a “how to” article.
Anyway yes, we appear to be communicating level 3 but indicating level one. This had all the professionalism of the Red Dwarf red alert sketch, e.g. I suspect they are in Westminster arguing about who should change the light bulb...
Andy Burnham just said test track and trace won't be up and running in Manchester for at least two-weeks
It's time for Starmer to start holding their feet to the fire
Meanwhile in Manchester I've just been to s Tesco to pick up my dad's prescription (a huge list). Despite the sign on the door clearly urging only 'one person per shop', there were dozens of families, some of three generations in there milling about.
football, beer, and above all, gambling filled up the horizon of their minds. To keep them in control was not difficult…
George Orwell, 1984
That's why I avoid Tesco; normally because it's full of shirtless men in the summer but also because many who shop their lack the self-discipline to comply with covid rules.
The Sainsbury's near me is doing a sterling job making people queue to get in and most people are acting sensibly when inside. Once a week I shop at the local (big) Asda for my parents and have noticed that in the last couple of weeks things have slackened off a lot with no control over entry any more, and as you say, large families treating it as a ****ing day out.
Our two local supermarkets are still sensible, though I was the only person wearing a face covering yesterday. It's time these were made compulsory for all communal indoor areas.
…and above all, gambling filled up the horizon of their minds. To keep them in control was not difficult…
https://twitter.com/matthancock/status/1266758277041401857?s=21
He is MP for Newmarket, after all.
No crowds though I think for the horse racing?
That’s why I avoid Tesco; normally because it’s full of shirtless men in the summer but also because many who shop their lack the self-discipline to comply with covid rules.
Absolutely, this was just after 11am today, it was almost indistinguishable from any normal day in there. It's only the pharmacy I use at the Tesco, in & out as quickly as possible once every two months if everything listed on the prescription is ok (often isn't). Sainsburys near us was well organised pretty much from week one of lockdown, Tesco & Asda weren't. Then the Sainsburys started doing click & collect which is in some ways better than a home delivery - more slots available, no need to wait around at home for up to an hour, can leave some non-perishable stuff in the car boot to self-isolate etc. (everything else gets disinfected at the door).
Supermarkets are surely one of the main vectors for infection now.
Supermarkets are surely one of the main vectors for infection now.
Not now or at any time during the pandemic according to French and German studies. None of the forty odd post lock down clusters in France are linked to shopping, all are related to places people have spent long periods together indoors. The vast majority (me included) wear a mask when shopping, contact times are short, distancing pretty good = low risk.
It’s time for Starmer to start holding their feet to the fire
I know he'll be accused of politicising it, but he needs to start making the government explain how they are justifying their actions, and using the death count against them. Otherwise he'll be guilty of not doing so.
If only we could track outbreaks for a reliable plan going forwards like France
Could it be that asymptomatic transmission is now driving the infection
I think it always has done.
Yeah, I think France were citing opportunities for super-spreaders given 'prolonged minglings' like in university halls, pubs, planes, tightly packed sporting events, music venues, etc.
I think France were citing opportunities for super-spreaders given ‘prolonged minglings’ like in university halls, pubs, planes, tightly packed sporting events, music venues,
None of which are currently happening in the UK, which leaves supermarkets.
And public transport in major cities
That isn't quite true. Public transport is still operating albeit less and many factories and businesses are still open. The lights wouldn't be on and we wouldn't be eating otherwise.
None of those is currently happening in France either, Scotroutes.
All of the identified clusters in France have UK equivalents. You don't need transmission in supermarkets to explain the current level of UK transmision just contact in perfectly legal settings that don't even break lockdown rules.
Transport: busses and trains are still operating which puts people in a confined space for the tiem of the journey. In France trains allow only one seat in two to be occupied and you have to wear a mask, and in the UK?
Abatoirs and meat packers: people working in close proximity in a cold confined environment.
Worker accomodation.
Indoor work places that are still open and key.
Old people's hime and othe rcollective accomodation
Schools - even with restricte numbers
funerals even with limited numbers
etc.
I've still yet to go in a food superstore since 16th March iirc, so I've no idea how things are in compared to the Tesco Express I've visited at least once weekly since April, but the latter has become an absolute shambles in the last ~3 weeks in terms of staff and other customers coming way inside 1m of me.
I'd guess I have 3-5 people get within 2m of me on each 5-10min walk around the store.
I'd imagine it's much worse than that in the superstores.
The only minor concellation is I think I've had it, albeit there seems to be a lot of uncertainty still about immunity.
I'd wager that hospitals and care homes are the most significant sites for transmission.
Klunk
George Orwell, 1984
Doublethink means the power of holding two contradictory beliefs in one's mind simultaneously, and accepting both of them. Until they became conscious they will never rebel, and until after they have rebelled they cannot become conscious.
I’d imagine it’s much worse than that in the superstores.
I have found it far better in the large stores than small stores, far more space, less customers per aisel, bigger aisles, more room at the tills etc.
It seems to vary from store to store (not company to company).
My experience
ASDA - absolute free for all
Tesco largeish store where my son works - very good. Limit in numbers, barriers and staff briefed to turn people around if they are going wrong way. Queue to pay forms in penultimate aisle (after walking up last aisle) and you are told which till to go to as they become free.
Aldi - limited numbers in store but getting to checkouts is a pain because everyone queues in last aisle even though other tills are free closer to entrance. No staff to tell you when tills are free.
Tesco express - too small and continually getting in each other's way.
Waitrose - strict limit to amount in shop. Plenty of room when you get in but still bloody expensive!
M&S Foodhall - limited numbers but hectic still due to size.
My local Sainsburys has been great tbh. Even the staff seem fairly happy, which I don't think I would be if I was them. First place I saw screens up, strict limits on people. Local tesco, not so much- it's not just the shop though, the shoppers are way less good.
I was in a Lidl the other day and it was just lovely. Quiet, relaxed, lots of space, it wasn't just a nice shopping experience- it was a nice experience full stop.
Doesn't seem to follow a pattern of brands round me, more what the immediate area the store is in and what type of customers frequent it. Most stores seem to be trying with mixed results. If the customers play ball then it's all good but if they don't then you have no chance of controlling them once they're in the store.
The protests in the US are worrying from a transmission perspective. The media coverage of the protests here don't look much better in terms of proximity to other people, not wearing masks etc etc.
Even the positive ones - e.g. The one where the Sheriff dresses down his colleagues helmets & batons to join in the protest, contains a lot high fives and hugs from said Sheriff to colleagues and public.
I worry enough about this country tbh, US is just a complete mind **** of a country.
Did my mum's shopping at Morrisons this morning. First morning I've needed to queue to get in, but people being sensible in store.
They have opened every till though, so hard to distance on the back to back layout
Asda is a nightmare, but it always is, seems to attract aw the idiots of the day. Sains is fine, Aldi ditto, and Lidl locally same as Northy's, lovely and quiet.
Has anyone else noticed the difference in PPE provision in the US?
Hospitals struggling to get it yet law enforcement tooled up with enough para-military equipment to survive anything.
Morrisons
Local Morrisons have been well organised right from the start. Limiting entry, entry queuing well setup, reasonable checkout queuing arrangements, screens for till workers, someone moving the queue to appropriate tills, etc.
So how come horse racing is back on when according to the Government's own traffic light system we should be at Level 1 ("No Transmission of Virus") before sport resumes?
So how come horse racing is back on when according to the Government’s own traffic light system we should be at Level 1 (“No Transmission of Virus”) before sport resumes?
To coin a phrase, all bets are off...
Just been to the Tesco Express down the road. It was as if Social Distancing had been cancelled. People getting in each other's way, one way being ignored, 2m rule forgotten etc.
****ing nightmare.
So how come horse racing is back on
Coz matt hancock takes his political donations up the arse from the newmarket racing crowd
Wasn't Level 1 for spectated sport - to avoid stadiums full of people? Think the horse racing is without public attendance. Agree with the above though - priority given due to vested interests.
Horses don't catch it.