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Even if their death was not caused by the spitting (and how can we be sure?) is it now OK for people to spit at others with the intention of injuring them? I
Spitting is assault. The Police/CPS do not pursue all assaults.
There's a genetic marker to trace how the virus is passed from one person to another, iirc, but surprised of the Police had checked this to rule him in or out as the source
Why wouldn’t it?
Oh so you guessed, thats fine, carry on. The UK best guesses are around 10% arent they, I see no reason why any school shouldnt be broadly similar.
And on a surprising development, MrsMC who has been a firm "we need to get back to normal sooner rather than later and just judge the risk" kind of girl, is suddenly looking at the numbers and thinking we may be rushing things now
anagallis_arvensis
Oh so you guessed, thats fine, carry on. The UK best guesses are around 10% arent they, I see no reason why any school shouldnt be broadly similar.
A national mean average is taken by adding up all the positive in a sample and then dividing by the number of records. Where does 10% come from? What was the sample and how was it selected?
Plenty of actual tests though where people have been in a similar situationb (just first google)
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/05/27/cruise-ship-study-shows-80-per-cent-covid-19-cases-board-asymptomatic/
Cruise ship study shows that 80 per cent of Covid-19 cases on board were asymptomatic
Of 217 passengers and crew on board 128 tested positive for the coronavirus and of those 104 did not have symptoms
A national mean average is taken by adding up all the positive in a sample and then dividing by the number of records. Where does 10% come from? What was the sample and how was it selected?
Not by taking an average of positive tests.
Of 217 passengers and crew on board 128 tested positiv
Does this equate to 90%, looks like about 55 to me, not sure how cruise sips relate to schools, and also 217 passengers and crew? Must have been a small cruise ship.
may be rushing things now
We are rushing things…
But the good news is that, assuming you are a private sector worker, today’s announcements about the way furlough is to be tapered, and the dates support continues to, you and your employer can just hold off ‘till July. Do that. Or keep working from home for a bit longer, with the kids. And keep the Zoom socialising going just a few more weeks…
An interesting conversation with a relative this evening about testing. Apparently one of the neighbouring county hospitals has tested all their clerical staff. Can anyone say padded testing numbers?
anagallis_arvensis
Not by taking an average of positive tests.
I don't know where you got your 10% from but if it's only positive tests not a random representative sample then it's way worse as the government is only testing those who show symptoms...
Does this equate to 90%, looks like about 55 to me, not sure how cruise sips relate to schools, and also 217 passengers and crew? Must have been a small cruise ship.
It's just one test from a closed in space with no outside cross infection but hardly representative. I'm not paying for a Telegraph paywall but I'd hardly expect the passengers to be young and I'd expect they were isolated in cabins but we don't know if this is even representative of cruise ships... some have might have zero and others 90%... depending in the fiorst case if noone aboard carried the virus and secondly what measures were taken either enforced or voluntary on the ship.
Either way ... 90% or 55% is just a number. Lets say 55% then that is 55% of kids in that school or year or whatever we actually MEASURED rather than guessed that can return* if only the government could be arsed to test who has anti-bodies and who doesn't. **Gosh if they had it and didn't know we could test their parents as well.
The point is there are no representative tests being made or perhaps published in the UK.
Sandwich
An interesting conversation with a relative this evening about testing. Apparently one of the neighbouring county hospitals has tested all their clerical staff. Can anyone say padded testing numbers?
But what have they tested for?
There was a huge test push a few weeks ago of asymptomatic, not known to be infected NHS staff. Will have boosted numbers but was also to establish if well staff are Covid + and an infection risk to others - has huge implications for restarting non emergency work if staff are carrying asymptomatically as risk of infecting well uninfected patients...
ElShalimo
MemberThe stats on the deaths of elderly people and people with “pre-existing medical conditions” are very disturbing and it is compounded by the reaction from many people, one of “well they were going to die soon anyway”.
This simply isn’t true.
Though in the case of care home residents it might be. A study of 65-104 year olds in care homes and the community found the chance of death within a year was 26% for care home residents as against 3% in the community.
https://academic.oup.com/ageing/article/42/2/209/27127
Yay, two world wars, one world cup and one pandemic
@irc - I'm not completely convinced. The other thing to bear in mind is that the majority of the deaths recorded are in hospitals.
assuming you are a private sector worker, today’s announcements about the way furlough is to be tapered, and the dates support continues to, you and your employer can just hold off ‘till July. Do that. Or keep working from home for a bit longer, with the kids. And keep the Zoom socialising going just a few more weeks.
<span style="font-size: 0.8rem;">Maybe this is the genius we don’t understand. We think we are being set free, yet commuters and workers are still at home...</span>
>Maybe this is the genius we don’t understand. We think we are being set free, yet commuters and workers are still at home…
But nothing they have said suggests we are "free"
How ever Dominic cummings and Bo Jo are doing a good job of displaying enough contempt for the order that people are acting as if they are "set free"
A question for you all.
We've been pretty much isolating at home as mrs_oab is vulnerable. We've ridden bikes and walked, away from the busy places and parts of the day to keep us all sane however.
I've suddenly the opportunity for something really important at work, an hour from home. It will mean being near around 4-6 adults (outside a school full of adults) and same of children, for probably a couple of hours. The work for me though would only be perhaps 30 minutes.
I'm suggesting to Mrs_oab I go but stay in the car until I have to do my bit.
She's not happy with the risk.
What thinks STW?
She’s not happy with the risk.
Does any other opinion matter?
What he says.
Does any other opinion matter?
Agreed. Even if you were seeking the advice of an expert, not us, her feelings matter more. I wouldn’t change anything before July in your position.
A fair point.
Hmmmm.
Does the IOW app work?
Its all gone very quiet on this.
Does the IOW app work?
According to my colleague, a resident of IOW, they've not even been asked to have the app...
Does the IOW app work?
It's world class, which is like one more than working. Other countries apps only go up to working but ours goes all the way up to world class. What do they do if they want a bit more than working, they can't go anywhere but we can get that extra push over the cliff....
My first comment on this thread.
Whilst I agree the government have made a complete mess of managing the Covid-19 emergency I've always suspected they've been acting on unreliable advice with neither Sir Patrick Vallance nor Chris Whitty ever having filled me with confidence that they had a handle on things. This summary of the SAGE minutes in the Guardian confirms that SAGE have been out of touch and behind the curve all along
The government isn’t in some bubble where they can’t read wider, and check advice from other UK and international, and multi-national, sources. If they can be bothered, and are capable. The PM’s attention was elsewhere, and he and Cummings had centralised control, so that other ministers had become little more than PR men and women. This is all on Cummings and Johnson.
I agree all it would have taken was to look at what was happening in Italy and Spain and ask SAGE "in what way are we different from these countries?" The answer should have been "not significantly" and in that case we should have started lock down immediately two weeks before we actually did it which would have saved thousands of lives. Having said that it appears that the so called experts in SAGE couldn't even put together that simple reasoning let alone the bimbling old Etonian
I agree all it would have taken was to look at what was happening in Italy and Spain and ask SAGE “in what way are we different from these countries?
It was a farce everyone sat around watching the terrible Italy scenes, the media branding it all a disaster the Italian doctors warning that you won’t believe what your going to run out of.
You didn’t need to be the smartest bloke in the room to realise that This was likely to end up on your doorstep, business were preparing for WFH and the grownups were cancelling mass events before the vague don’t go to the pub and realisation that they’d fkd up.
It’s another Scenario of being an unwitting passenger in a bus driven by a bunch of ****in incompetents.
TLDR you don’t need a fireman to tell you your house is on fire before you do something about it.
This does not inspire confidence, and seems to reinforce the worries SAGE advisors have gone public with over the past few hours
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/may/30/boris-johnsons-test-and-tracing-system-britain-lockdown
This BBC article concerns me - either some of the experts are trying to cover their arse cos they got it wrong, or they are getting their defence in early for when the government throws them under a bus. Or both.
BBC News - Coronavirus: Risk in UK lockdown easing too soon, warn scientists
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52858392
It’s always been a balance of science, politics and economy, with the Government steering the ship in their desired direction I don’t see why people are shocked at that revelation.
I'm amazed it's taken SAGE so long to cover their backs, because in all likelihood, Monday is the seeding a second wave of deaths in mid June... If it hasn't already started in the last few days.
Kryton +1
Lockdown isn't just about pure science.
There's huge political, social and financial influence.
A third member of SAGE now saying we’re being too hasty with lock down. I don’t think they’re “covering their arses”, I think they are speaking out to encourage us to act ourselves where the government doesn’t want to. Don’t treat June in the way the government are suggesting… keep existing measures going ‘till July if you can.
I'm astonished that they were so naive as to walk into that elephant trap in the first place, and they are certainly bleeding credibility the longer they stay on SAGE.
Science never decides. It's one of the most fundamental points to learn when you're involved in decision support at any level, especially in anything politically sensitive. Hume worked this out several centuries ago FFS.
Even if the scientist says "action A will result in 8k deaths and a cost of 6% of GDP, action B will kill 40k people and cost 10% of GDP" it is still the politician who decides which course of action to take.
I was being too blunt with the "covering their arses" comment. I understand the economic and social aspects of the lockdown decision to start with. Whoever made the call, for whatever reason, got it at least a week too late. That seemed likely at the time - so many people were already taking their own action - and it seems virtually certain looking back now with hindsight.
As for coming out of lockdown, we're being very cautious about it. Eldest may go into college as a Year 12 for some tutor meetings, but college are saying that's at least 2 more weeks away.
This is MrsMC 's last week working frontline child protection before moving to a new job with a different authority. Two primary schools in her patch are closed with confirmed virus cases. Hoping she doesn't bring that legacy home with her when she clears her desk.
This whole strategy of telling us days in advance that our liberties are officially going to change has been a Boris level act of stupidity...
Did they not learn from the Wetherspoons & co. madness following "the pubs must close from tonight" announcement?
What possible good (in terms of controlling the virus and saving lives) came from Boris telling us on the afternoon of Thursday 28th May, that in England, we can officially meet in groups of six from Monday 1st June? The "teachers pet" sensible ones will wait to Monday, but anyone on the fence about being sick of lockdown is simply more likley to push the boundaries and socialise beforehand.
This whole strategy of telling us days in advance that our liberties are officially going to change has been a Boris level act of stupidity…
I've asked this question already - why were the new freedoms delayed by 3 days anyway? Nicola Sturgeon announced them on Thursday with effect from Friday (in line with a previously published roadmap).
why were the new freedoms delayed by 3 days anyway?
Obviously making sure front pages are free of Cummings , with some feel good news for Johnson to announce, he feeds on that BS
Not just Cummings, to be avoided, track & trace is non existent
Testing is way short of where it needs to be
Total death rate IS world beating ...
Johnson's this close from turning the daily briefing into a raffle with a tombola offering day trips to Barnard Castle or a lifetimes supply of PPE to a lucky NHS worker, ANYTHING to detract from the disaster he has presided over
Monday is the seeding a second wave of deaths in mid June… If it hasn’t already started in the last few days.
has there been a VE related spike? I’ve seen nothing to suggest there was.
zero new cases in my local authority area for three weeks now, when do we get regional area restrictions?
Government saying they follow the science while SAGE saying its not an exact science.
Other countries apps only go up to working but ours goes all the way up to world class.
So is that the equivalent of eleven?
There are some mini-spikes after the bank holidays but that was deemed an issue of slow reporting. It's the 2-4 weeks after each BH that will tell you if there was an indicative signal in the data. This is where not using a log scale can help lesser mortals understand the graphs.
I can't be arsed digging out the graphs but no doubt someone will. If VE Day had an impact we'd start to see it now.
There were about 20+ over-50s having a party in a field 200m from my house on VE Day. None of your 2m apart malarkey. I hope they caught cat AIDS or badger cough or something. ****less morons.
The cases have been trending up the last three days on the rolling 7 day average, made it weird on the briefing yesterday when they said they are relaxing lockdown as cases clearly trending down and bring up graph showing a clear break in the longterm downward trend. Could be a reporting issue, could be a short term blip, guess time will tell
Don't know if shared already but this 5 page dashboard has one page estimating R in your local authoirty area:
https://app.deckzero.com/deck/UK-Covid-19-Monitor-MTMzODU0MDMyMjU/4
Cases need to be adjusted by tests. Tests are increasing so more cases are found. That does not necessarily indicate more transmission. Deaths are a better but lagged metric. Interesting, the lag between cases and deaths is only about five days. And that’s global and local.
Cases need to be adjusted by tests. Tests are increasing so more cases are found. That does not necessarily indicate more transmission. Deaths are a better but lagged metric. Interesting, the lag between cases and deaths is only about five days. And that’s global and local.
Guess this isn't helped by the Governments apparent inability to report number of people tested. only tests carried out
Looking at the FT tracker, deaths have alse trended up the last three days, there might be a bank holiday effect in the reporting but there wasn't to this extent in the prior bank holidays
So is that the equivalent of eleven?
Exactly, although I think there might be an announcement coming soon to say it's going to be delayed so that it can go all the way to 12 when launched, no longer just world class but stellar!
greentricky - the gov have decided to not publish the number of people tested; it's not that they don't have the information.
We're heading for another wave. Imminently. Our politicians and media have led us to believe that we have this beat and it's on its way out. Folk have basically stopped caring as it's "only" 300 deaths per day. Even a simple measure like wearing a face covering in busy indoor spaces is being ignored. Campervans and motor homes are now wandering the country, unfettered by any police action. Second homes are being occupied. The panic buying of hand cleanser is over. Folk just aren't taking the care they were.
Enjoy these few brief weeks of "freedom" while they last, then look forward to another lockdown taking us up to the winter.
Guess this isn’t helped by the Governments apparent inability to report number of people tested. only tests carried out
Not even that if they count nasal and throat swabs on the same person as 2 tests. Welcome to Chernobyl.
I don’t think we’re on for another wave… I just don’t think there is the political will to end the current one, now that they think it is low enough to stop dominating the news agenda… few enough daily deaths and lives ruined is what they want politically… rather than as few as possible over time… they’re just not interested.
I can’t be arsed digging out the graphs but no doubt someone will. If VE Day had an impact we’d start to see it now.
See tireds last graph,☹️
I don’t think we’re on for another wave
Constant ripples, perhaps?
That last graph was reporting not excess. There were very few deaths registered on bank holiday Friday. I expect a slowing of the rate of decline and possible trending to low endemic. It’s actually hard to look at cases and deaths simultaneously due to the different sources and regionality. I have cases at LTLA level - 300 regions. Deaths are by nhs trust. And one then has to link the two :-(.
Bah!
I presume that M3 jam was earlier in the week, when Bournemouth was packed out.
The tweet seems to be from today. I would imagine a mass exodus to the coast today. The number of people who mention Cummings when justifying their behaviour is not insignificant
I know I’ve mentioned this before, but now I’ve seen a few doctors commenting on it online I think it has more legitimacy than just what I’ve heard from friends who work in coroners’ offices: many of the deaths attributed to COVID19 are at best pure guesses, at worst highly misleading.
Identifying the cause of death is not an exact science when there is no post mortem, but at one point nearly everyone who died in a care home setting was apparently being classed as COVID19 death.
It’s worth remembering this when looking at the data; they are somewhat misleading,
JP
Identifying the cause of death is not an exact science
I suppose that's where "excess deaths" comes in.
I expect a slowing of the rate of decline
It's already painfully slow - if it slows any more it'll be increasing again !!
but at one point nearly everyone who died in a care home setting was apparently being classed as COVID19 death
Not true. Point me to any source claiming that, it sounds made up to me. At “one point” (beginning of May) we were at 18000 excess deaths in care homes compared to the 8000 recorded as being with Coronavirus.
Do any of your somewhat Convienant sources have a reason for the excess deaths then that are multiples of 5 and 10 year averages for the months of April and may ?
Something is causing it. It's not natural selection
many of the deaths attributed to COVID19 are at best pure guesses,
Slurpy slurpy Kool-aid is the best.
Excess deaths btw as has been mentioned already
**** i forgot. It's 5g isn't it
Falls in the bath. Deadly. Especially in April. Don’t say I have not warned you.
what I’ve heard from friends who work in coroners’ offices: many of the deaths attributed to COVID19 are at best pure guesses, at worst highly misleading.
It's a fair assumption that many GPs are marking down Covid-19 as a contributory cause in CoD incorrectly as there is no post-mortem test being carried out. We know from this forum and elsewhere that many folk who think they have the symptoms come out negative in testing.
However, the whole point of the "excess deaths" figure is that it gives us an overall picture, taking account of these false-positives and all of the others who died untested. If you can't come up with another reason that excess deaths is much higher than normal then you have to conclude that Covid-19 is the cause.
JJP - out with his mates on the lash
Do you think Professor Van Tam might not be Bojo’s favourite scientist after today’s briefing?
I like the ad hominem attacks here - very mature.
I have no interest in conspiracy theories - I just think it’s ridiculous to take everything at face value.
Here’s an article from an NHS doctor (yes, I know the website it’s published on will be decried, but you can also look at the doctor’s own blog, which says the same):
https://www.rt.com/op-ed/490006-death-certificates-covid-19-do-not-trust/
Excess deaths is a red herring - there are all sorts of reasons that there might be more deaths than usual at the moment, particularly given that visits to A&E are miraculously low. Just think about it for a minute.
I know of several instances where deaths have been marked as COVID when the tests came back negative. I’m not making this up and I don’t believe it’s some sort of wide ranging conspiracy - it just undermines my faith in the data.
I note that in the chart showing deaths on today’s briefing the headline is ‘deaths where there was a positive test for COVID’ yet at the bottom of the graph it elaborates ‘where COVID was mentioned in the death certificate’. These are being conflated yet they self evidently aren’t the same thing.
We’ll see what happens in the end, but a year from now, when we find that the overall death rate over the year is relatively unchanged from the 5 year I'll be back to remind you all how wrong you were.
JP
I should add that the BMJ has stated that only a third of excess deaths in care homes can be explained by COVID, so please find a better counter argument than this.
JP
Sorry but that is abject nonsense. All-cause mortality is the best estimator of death rate and changes in that death rate are informative. Even if one assumes NOBODY attended hospital for fatal heart attacks or strokes, this would not account for the difference. We have an excess that was 40 standard deviations from that expected. Other causes of mortality cannot account for this difference, not suicide (6k/year) cancer (4000 diagnoses per week). Nothing.
More tellingly, the standardised comparison with other countries provides a very clear and robust correlation between all-cause and covid19 deaths across all countries.
We are heading towards 70,000 excess deaths for the first half of 2020. That is most likely due to reduced life expectancy in the 85+ age group. Many of those will have died in nursing homes. Whether they died of or from COVID19 is not relevant. What is relevant is something has speeded their demise this year over all previous years. In history.
BTW 50% of excess mortality is in the over 85’s, 90% in the over 65’s. These are not people to normally not attend A&E. it may be true that more routine A&E visits are down, but the numbers just do not add up.
JJP - my post was related to having friends (plural) that work in coroner's offices.
1 would be unusual, n is either very unfortunate or your circle of friends has weird hobbies
😉
So, sometimes its beyond belief what a complete cluster **** this is, but this quote from tonights party political broadcast really does bring it home.
"Next up, a journalist from Sky asks: "Who is catching coronavirus and how, given that we're 10 weeks into lockdown?"
Van-Tam says: "That's a difficult question. I can't tell you who's catching coronavirus."
So how exactly will this world class track and trace system work then?
TiRed - why does the BMJ state that COVID can only explain a third of the excess deaths in nursing homes then?
I’m not pushing any theory here, I’m just puzzled as to why this is happening.
As to how I know a few people in coroners’ offices - my businesses, and those of my main business partner, over the years, have brought me into contact with a wide range of people, many of whom I have maintained some form of contact with.
As an aside, one of my business partners nearly died from COVID19 (he’s been interviewed for various press articles, and is on Desert Island Discs this Friday, weirdly enough) so I’m not some sort of COVID denier.
JP
I get the impression that the scientists and medical experts are trying to get the public to understand tbat the advice they give may not always tally with the decisions made by the government.
but at one point nearly everyone who died in a care home setting was apparently being classed as COVID19 death
why does the BMJ state that COVID can only explain a third of the excess deaths in nursing homes then?
Which is it? That nearly every death is being classed as a COVID19 death, or, that about a third of the excess deaths are… and that we can’t say for certain what the other two thirds are down to… well, I’ll answer for you… it’s close to the later, and the first assertion was utter made up nonsense. You were trying to make the claim that the number of people recorded of having died with the virus in care homes is overblown, when in fact it is highly likely that many more have died with it than have been recorded as such.
I know of several instances where deaths have been marked as COVID when the tests came back negative. I’m not making this up and I don’t believe it’s some sort of wide ranging conspiracy – it just undermines my faith in the data.
anecdotaly doctor colleagues have said that theyre fairly sure that people have died of COVID but test has come back negative & the test(well depending on type of test, there are more than 1) is not 100% accurate, but tests are too precious to waste on dead people, so not repeated & in some cases not done at all
theres also the problem that the accuracy of the test varies dependng on when they are tested,
https://coronavirusexplained.ukri.org/en/article/vdt0006/
and death certs have primary & ancilliary causes of death, which are often very difficult to deconvolute , especially in older patients with lots of comorbidities & with a disease as poorly understood as this cornoavirus & Ive been told of doctors disagreeing over which is primary & which is not......
so excess deaths are the best thing to use
I hope that allays some of your concerns