@martinhutch That all seems reasonable, however I was under the impression that there was some (though not loads) of cross-immunity for different strains of Flu; I’d assumed that Corona would be the same, especially if it’s circulating annually.
DOI not a virologist.
CPC and Screwfix have very limited supplies of face masks and non in stock locally wiuth a header saying max 5 per order.
Roads seem to be very quiet as is public transport locally, buses empty, but a lot of supermarket food delivery vans being driven badly around.
Also a few days ago a woman in a petrol station, getting agitated because she couldnt find any disposable gloves as she didnt want to handle the fuel nozzle handle, now just waiting for hand sanitizers to be installed on all shopping trolley handles, and shop doors.
CPC and Screwfix have very limited supplies of face masks and non in stock locally wiuth a header saying max 5 per order.
What kind of face masks though?
Unless they’re FFP3 or equivalent and properly fit tested, they’ll not help.
Unless they’re FFP3 or equivalent and properly fit tested, they’ll not help
As discussed a few pages back, even a hanky tied over your mouth and nose can have some* effect to stop you spreading it but since it's mostly rubbed into eyes and similar to contract it they'll not stop you getting it and nor will an FFP3 that doesn't cover your eyes, hands etc.
*some ranging from a tiny fraction of a small % to a small %
They'll help panicky panickers to stop panicking.
They’ll help panicky panickers to stop panicking
I thought you used brown paper bags for that?
They have found it in some pets in Hong Kong now:
When it makes the jump to sheep can we call it BAARS?
Interestingly the last piece on the guardian is much more positive about masks (though still only a 5 fold reduction in risk) saying they now believe it is predominantly spread via particles in the air rather than contact with particels that have landed on some surface.
No masks anywhere locally. I have some old DIY ones in the garage - worth putting on Ebay!? 🙂
the UAE tour has been cancelled 3 reams appear to have caught it
Ad in China telling Chinese to stop eating wild animals so that we don't need face masks https://imgur.com/gallery/T3FXGli
the UAE tour has been cancelled 3 reams appear to have caught it
It's spreading into paper now? #PreyForFlashheart
guardian is much more positive
Yeh I was just reading that.
The bit about it being ten times more deadly than normal seasonal flu was less positive.
I’m not sure I’ve seen any reliable data on infection rates?
they’ll not help
Wearing a mask reminds wearers not to stick their unwashed hands in mouth and eyes, which helps.
That all seems reasonable, however I was under the impression that there was some (though not loads) of cross-immunity for different strains of Flu; I’d assumed that Corona would be the same, especially if it’s circulating annually.
IANAV also.
There may be some cross-immunity in some patients, that hasn't been established yet. This could explain why some people are getting lesser symptoms, while others are getting seriously ill. It's described as a novel virus, though, so while it might have some similarities with other coronaviruses, it's clear that it has the capacity to cause significant illness in a decent chunk of the people who receive it.
If it recirculates, then certain strains will be more potent than others, but the point about mass recirculation is that it will be more likely to mutate into a strain which patients don't have any cross-immunity to. Those strains will then become the next season's coronavirus - Covid 20 - in much the same way that influenza does. Scientists look at the far east early in the year to see what strains are emerging and try to predict which ones will hit us the following winter. Flu vaccine is then produced for the 'best guess' strains.
Leadership?
https://twitter.com/ianbremmer/status/1233174683861897216/photo/1
or
https://twitter.com/ianbremmer/status/1233174683861897216/photo/2
this was interesting
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1286457920300344
basically, as I read it, it's worse in Iran and China, as they've already got some antibodies for another coronavirus (either SARS or MERS).
The western world (and Africa/South America etc), with no real exposure to these, should only exhibit mild symptoms as the latest virus struggles to get into the cells.
Wearing a mask reminds wearers not to stick their unwashed hands in mouth and eyes,
I bet the loo roll shortage does a better job of that...
basically, as I read it, it’s worse in Iran and China, as they’ve already got some antibodies for another coronavirus (either SARS or MERS).
The western world (and Africa/South America etc), with no real exposure to these, should only exhibit mild symptoms as the latest virus struggles to get into the cells.
Interesting. The suggestion is that earlier exposure to similar coronaviruses has primed the immune system and triggered a massive over-reaction to COVID 19. Basically massive and sustained inflammation, which isn't great news in your lungs, or anywhere else.
The mystery has been why whole households were dying in Hubei, young and old, but the same thing has not been happening elsewhere.
My understanding is that it will become endemic too, lets just hope the isolation advice slows it down enough so that by the time it's endemic we have a vaccine.
First british death from diamond princess quarantined ship and now boris has removed his head from doms arse and tabled a cobra meeting on monday to deal with virus
The bit about it being ten times more deadly than normal seasonal flu was less positive.
The figures quoted in that Guardian don't actually support what the journalist is claiming.
The biggest expo in my calendar Munich High End Audio Show (May) has just been cancelled.
We time all our product releases around it as do many other audio companies.
Good that they announced early but still a bit of a shock.
Munich High End Audio Show (May)
That's an odd acronym for that.
I though mortality in Italy was roughly aligned with China? This not the case?
Just out of curiosity, if you were asthmatic how scared would you be?
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/ table towards the bottom on comorbidities.
Suggests the mortality rate is higher for those with chronic respority disease - would asthma fall under that? I'd imagine the the comorbidities correlate closely with the diseases that impact the elderly tho.
mortality in Italy
as with all these, they're measuring mortality of dead versus people they know who have it.
there will be hundreds of people who don't know they've got it, think they've got a cold or flu, or are completely asymptomatic. Therefore the ratio should (should!) be lower than the official one
The only research i could find on it so far doesn't show an undue link to asthma - i'm probably wrong above calling it a chronic respority disease as it would count as an allergy.
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/all.14238
as with all these, they’re measuring mortality of dead versus people they know who have it.
there will be hundreds of people who don’t know they’ve got it, think they’ve got a cold or flu, or are completely asymptomatic. Therefore the ratio should (should!) be lower than the official one
Yes, but until we can control for differences in diagnosis - it’s probably pertinent to assume that mortality rates between the two countries are broadly comparable.
It will be interesting, considering the comorbidity risk factors - whether fat America fairs better or worse than China where pollution and smoking damaged lungs are more common.
Remember hearing an interview* with Alan Greenspan on R4, where he explained why recessions are an inevitability. One of the reasons he gave was while we may learn from the cause of the last recession, it will always be something else, unforeseen that causes the next.
*if memory serves me right, a few months before the last recession
as with all these, they’re measuring mortality of dead versus people they know who have it.
there will be hundreds of people who don’t know they’ve got it, think they’ve got a cold or flu, or are completely asymptomatic. Therefore the ratio should (should!) be lower than the official one
Conversely, there is a lag between positive tests and deaths, as folk will present but die some days later. So simply comparing current case numbers with total deaths may be misleading.
Ewan, that study is for acquisition of the virus - ie, does having asthma make you more likely to catch it, not whether you are more likely to die from it.
I would include asthma under the 'respiratory disease' umbrella, for the simple reason that this is classification when they are deciding who gets a free flu jab. Incidentally if you're asthmatic and haven't had a flu jab, go and get one, as flu is still circulating and having the jab could reduce the overall burden on the NHS if this kicks off. Pneumococcal vaccine isn't a bad idea, as well. It would be grimly ironic if we had a coronavirus epidemic but you die from preventable influenza complications because your local hospital is swamped with covid 19 cases.
Suggests the mortality rate is higher for those with chronic respority disease – would asthma fall under that? I’d imagine the the comorbidities correlate closely with the diseases that impact the elderly tho.
According to the WHO website - maybe?
Chronic respiratory diseases (CRDs) are diseases of the airways and other structures of the lung. Some of the most common are chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), asthma, occupational lung diseases and pulmonary hypertension.
As Tim says, it's just a portacabin with no floor over a well
Things getting real at work
Alan Greenspan - vey good at commenting after the event; god knows why he served so many terms as Fed chairman.
As for recession, no indication of negative growth - yet - so....no.
Remember hearing an interview* with Alan Greenspan on R4, where he explained why recessions are an inevitability. One of the reasons he gave was while we may learn from the cause of the last recession, it will always be something else, unforeseen that causes the next.
*if memory serves me right, a few months before the last recession
My theory about recessions is that they're destructive but necessary, like Bush Fires.
We (humans) think we're so clever we can live without downsides, but the Law of Unintended Consequences proves us wrong time and time again. We skipped at least 1, but probably 2 recessions between the 90s and the great recession and so much greed built up when it did happen it was massive and we really couldn't handle a natural correction so we spread it over a decade or more.
There's an argument I suppose to say that this is no different, we reached the point when loads of diseases that would have killed off the sick, weak and old years ago don't anymore - the unintended consequence is over-population and an ageing population we really don't know how to care for if the trend continues. Maybe corona-virus is the Great Recession for population? Not a nice thought I know.
Ironically perhaps, the two coincide, the great recession lead to austerity and a NHS already stretched and probably unable to cope with an epidemic. It's almost poetic.
Good post MartinHutch thanks. I've just booked myself and wife to get the Pneumococcal vaccine at the local boots, probably a waste of money but that's ok. As someone who is immunosuppressed after B cell lymphoma treatment this is starting to get concerning.
@binners so let me get this straight MUFC supporter's plan to not be beaten by Liverpool:
1)hope our team plays better
2)if that doesn't work, get a wee Irish kid to write a letter to klop.
3)70 million dead world wide
I take it plan 4 is embed a couple of US marines in Turkish in the military in Syria and wait for a Russian airstrike to start world war 3 and end all life on earth?
I take it plan 4 is embed a couple of US marines in Turkish in the military in Syria and wait for a Russian airstrike to start world war 3 and end all life on earth?
You'll win nothing with cockroaches.
Headlines from Saturday's papers.... https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-the-papers-51684050
What a complete bag of bollocks.
Deaths likely to be minimal; economic shock will not be minimal.
One potential upside is that it will threaten trump's re-election campaign; it's worth a few deaths for him not to be the-elected.
Did a "pandemic prep" shop a couple of days back for medical stuff (paracetamol,ibuprofen etc) and antibac stuff.
Just got back from a late night asda food shop. Dry and tinned goods etc. This virus don't kill many (I hope) but it's absolutely going to hit supply chains as workers self isolate or look after their family. That's what I'm trying to mitigate.
The store was out of all antibac cleaning products and alcohol hands gels. Not really surprised at that as people are simply buying (and hopefully using) what the government and media have recommended. Good news. I'd already bought the stuff so didn't need it anyway.
We are now sorted for food and basic meds together with toilet rolls and tissues blah,blah. I feel a bit stupid buying it all but it won't go so waste. Most will get used in time anyway, the rest can go to food banks if necessary.
To be honest I feel a bit relieved in knowing my little bubble is as prepared as it can be.
My other focus is to stop the virus getting into the house if I can as I care for my 90 year old mother. That's a huge concern. Fortunately I have a few ideas on that one.
Again,hopefully I'm just a colossal prat and wasted time and money on stuff I won't need. Hope so.
When bog roll supplies run out, use yesterday's newspapers - many of which are, correctly, described as arse-wipes.
This virus don’t kill many (I hope) but it’s absolutely going to hit supply chains as workers self isolate or look after their family. That’s what I’m trying to mitigate.
That is exactly what I did 4 weeks ago (all non perishables and all will get used over next 6 months anyway so just see it as shopping in advance).
All very well thinking you can still get food delivered if you are self isolated but not if the people driving the van, people working in the food distribution etc,. are also self isolated or in lockdown.
Get ready to be called a Pillock...
My wife picked up a bunch of non-perishable stuff yesterday ... what struck me is it was just like the shop my folks did when I was a kid and we only went to the supermarket once a month. It's actually a pretty sensible way to shop.
She did say there was lots of people in masks with full trolleys though and no antibacterial products.
