several people in our office not have full blown flu and are still coming in
have they really? or have they just got colds? in my experience if you really have flu, you can't go anywhere
I’d just open the gates and let the thing run it’s course.
I think it's common practice to start such a statement with "I am not an epidemiologist but..."
I’d just open the gates and let the thing run it’s course.
Great idea. So let's say 60% of the population get it, so around 40 million in UK. Of that 40 million 2 percent are ill and need hospitalization, respirators etc,. and 1% of them die.
800,000 extra people in hospital (that won't be possible due to space, lack of equipment etc,.)
400,000 extra people dying (not great if you are one of them)
I think it’s common practice to start such a statement with “I am not an epidemiologist but…”
Your point is?
have they really? or have they just got colds? in my experience if you really have flu, you can’t go anywhere
All depends what type of flu. I have had flu in the past where I struggled to get out of bed for a week whereas Covid19 seems much milder (fever and cough) and not quite so incapacitating for many people.
in my experience if you really have flu, you can’t go anywhere
My experience as well. Had it once about 20yrs ago and lost about 3 weeks of my life. If you can get to the bathroom unaided you probably haven't got "Flu"!
But it's not flu kerley, that's sort of the point and the problem.
Any who, covid nearly caused me to crash this morning. Jeremy Hunt being interviewed on R4 "we're a mature democracy and I think we can count on the cooperation of the public..." WTAF I appreciate he can't say "we're doomed as the public are largely idiots on their own and get more stupid the bigger the herd" live on national radio but crikey, he may as well have said "sod you all, I'm a lizard so can't catch it anyway and I'm off to live on the moon."
Great idea. So let’s say 60% of the population get it, so around 40 million in UK. Of that 40 million 2 percent are ill and need hospitalization, respirators etc,. and 1% of them die.
800,000 extra people in hospital (that won’t be possible due to space, lack of equipment etc,.)
400,000 extra people dying (not great if you are one of them)
So instead, you economically bring the country to it's knees. Sorry, but I'm a realist and accept that sooner or later a pandemic will sweep the globe. Given the global population it's only a matter of time.
Where could the US patient who hasn't had any confirmed exposure have got it from?
Maybe a MAGA hat is a better bet than a face mask?
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/27/us/politics/coronavirus-us-whistleblower.html
So instead, you economically bring the country to it’s knees.
And you don't think 60% of the population being ill, 500,000 extra deaths to deal with, hospitals not able to operate etc,. will bring the country to it knees via another route?
You are not a realist, you are just somebody who puts the economy higher in the order of priority than peoples well being...
My experience as well. Had it once about 20yrs ago and lost about 3 weeks of my life. If you can get to the bathroom unaided you probably haven’t got “Flu”!
Likewise I had swine flu and I literally couldn't move for a couple of days. It took me a day to get from the bed to the sofa to call the doctor - i actually crawled and slept / passed out on the way. Most 'flu' is a cold.
have had flu in the past where I struggled to get out of bed for a week whereas Covid19 seems much milder (fever and cough) and not quite so incapacitating for many people.
I hope you stocked on supplies before getting the flu.
Where could the US patient who hasn’t had any confirmed exposure have got it from?Maybe a MAGA hat is a better bet than a face mask?
The US has only allowed testing on a very limited subset of people (people who had just returned from the impacted bits of china), plus the test they'd sent out had a flaw and didn't work. Apparently several of the states have stated they've treated a few respiratory cases as if they are covid 19, and when they have recovered discharged them.
I would assume it's in the population, and they're just as ****ed as the rest of us.
We stocked up on bog roll last night 😀
Regret cutting my beard now. It was massive, which isn’t on the chart so must’ve been super safe. Now it’s just a normal full beard and I’m doomed. If it’s a choice between clean shaven, stubble, a goatee, a moustache or death I’m choosing death.
You are not a realist, you are just somebody who puts the economy higher in the order of priority than peoples well being…
Donald? Is that you? PotUS on STW, amazing. 😁
I hope you stocked on supplies before getting the flu.
No need as there was no chance of lockdown, self isolation, massive disruption to anything other than myself. You are really not understanding this are you, but I am sure you will start to in a month or so...
i see they’ve renamed the hitler as the “toothbrush”
Apparently he trimmed it that way to fit under a gas mask in WW1 and never changed it, so there's a certain sense to it I suppose.
So instead, you economically bring the country to it’s knees. Sorry, but I’m a realist and accept that sooner or later a pandemic will sweep the globe. Given the global population it’s only a matter of time.
Spoken like a man in good health without any elderly relatives!
I do kind of agree though that it's inevitable that it's going to rip through the UK population sooner rather than later..
Most ‘flu’ is a cold
Yes, if you look at these reports, they don't seem to try and identify levels of flu. They use cold and flu like symptoms as reported to GPS, Hospitals etc. to give an idea of yearly changes.
https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/annual-flu-reports
The mortality estimates at the end are quite interesting, but they ARE estimates. So my understanding is that we don't know how many people get flu in a year, Or how many people die from it.
(they're a bit long and dense and a bit too technical for laymen like me, so I may have missed something)
It seems like part of the containment plan is to get us through winter in the hope that warmer spring weather will reduce the likelihood of person to person transmission. Therefore wouldn’t it be better to make Froome, Cavendish etc sit outside by the pool all day rather than in an overly air-conditioned UAE hotel room??
make sure they wear riding kit by the pool, roadies are obsessive over their silly tan lines.
While I think it's all quite scary I do think there's a degree of panic being propogated by the media and with 'news' being everywhere now that escalates.
I've not seen any real explanation around WHY people should self isolate - which leads a lot of people to believe that people will be left to die in their houses, rather than actually the fact that they actually isolating themselves to contain spread. And the containment of spread being about keeping strain off emergency services, normal life, economy etc. What is trying to be prevented, I think, is half or more of the workforce being off work, rather than half or more of the workforce dying.
There's probably way more people got it. I've got a headache and feel a bit sinusy, bit of a cough etc. Generally under the weather? Cold? Covid19?
I’d just open the gates and let the thing run it’s course.
You are Thanos AICMFP
I’ve not seen any real explanation around WHY people should self isolate – which leads a lot of people to believe that people will be left to die in their houses, rather than actually the fact that they actually isolating themselves to contain spread.
To help prevent it spreading. I thought that had been very clear even amongst the media hype.
The potential economic damage with such a knee jerk global response is far more concerning.
I’d just open the gates and let the thing run it’s course.
There'll probably be a point where you might as well just let that happen. Theres a tendency to be flippant about it because of the comparison to other big scares like SARS which everyone panicked about and seemed to come to nothing. Itr came to nothing on purpose. With SARS we (ie the world) achieved what we're trying to achieve here - successfully contained it and preventing it from spreading far enough to become a common and recurring illness.
If we hadn't managed that we'd have Seasonal Colds, Seasonal Flu and Seasonal SARS every year. But we don't have seasonal SARS and thats a good thing. It would be good to not have Seasonal COVID19 - as we're all (generally) reading this we're the demographic that it makes the most ill and moving towards the demographic that it kills.
It seems age is a big factor in the severity of symptoms. You'd usually expect the both the very young and the very old to be the worst effected by this kind of illness but very young children seem to suffer very little from infection. Instead the severity seems to increase incrementally with age - making it quite fatal forthe very old but but really more dangerous than is acceptable and more disruptively ill for a good chunk of he working population.
People being ill is a big deal economically but lots of people being ill in ways that required medical care really impacts on our progress medically. Many of the life improving and extending procedures and treatments we have today came about when the pressure on health services were relieved by cures for common conditions.
My mum had her hips replaced in the hospital where the hip replacement was invented. It's a former TB Isolation Hospital. TB used to be massive drain on health resources because it made lots of people very ill for a very long time. So much so hospitals were built and staffed for just that one illness. A cure and vaccine for TB suddenly left those wards empty and created the time and space for innovation and forward thinking rather then just trying to cope with a mass of people all with the same illness.
Similarly any Giles cartoon had a kid with measles somewhere in the picture. We dion't think of it as serious illness but if killed or seriously brain damaged 1 in 1000 which is a lot when every kid gets it.
The first impact if this gets out of control and infections become wide spread and regular will be.... the cancelling of all those treatments and procedures we've been able to enjoy in recent years - that have extended our working careers and made our lives longer and happier.
To help prevent it spreading. I thought that had been very clear even amongst the media hype.
I thought it was to delay it spreading until the summer, which makes perfect sense. But I've only read that on here.
<blockquoteTo help prevent it spreading. I thought that had been very clear even amongst the media hype.
Yes, but to what end. So that everyone doesn't die. That's what I get from the media.
Yes, but to what end. So that everyone doesn’t die. That’s what I get from the media.
we are all going to die. it would be more convenient if it wasn't all at the same time.
Yes, but to what end. So that everyone doesn’t die. That’s what I get from the media.
No, so it isn’t spread onto vulnerable people.
I thought it was to delay it spreading until the summer, which makes perfect sense. But I’ve only read that on here.
Both that was has also been said in media sources, I’ve not read the latest PHE advice that’s tonight’s joy when I get to work.
Dp
Geneva motor show is cancelled.
fully expecting the big trade show in late march at excel I'm doing to be cancelled...
as we’re all (generally) reading this we’re the demographic that it makes the most ill and moving towards the demographic that it kills.
Eh? Is the stw demographic that old? Id assumed most were in their 40s/50s..the fatality ratio is 0.5% in that population.
The odds are in your favour if you are otherwise fit and healthy. Im More concerned about the less dramatic consequences of getting it, ie feeling shit for 3 weeks, having to self isolate and stay away from seeing my folks, missing my holiday...and most importantly of all, a reduction in my ftp after a hard winter on the turbo!
The politics of this is going to get very interesting. Voters like to see their leaders taking action in times of crisis, especially when it threatens them and their families. Johnson has shown little sign of that so far, and his hands-off non-interference way of working as demonstrated with the floods is not going to go down well. I reckon he's ****** either way. Do nothing it spreads, the NHS collapses and lots die, take massive interventionist action like shutting schools and public transport the economy collapses resulting in mass unemployment. A good time not to be PM I think 🙂
…and most importantly of all, a reduction in my ftp after a hard winter on the turbo
3 weeks of self isolation will give you plenty of time to work on that. Unless you're 15 so planning to stream not sufferfest and vigorously exercise some other way.
Do nothing it spreads, the NHS collapses and lots die, [predominantly in poor working class non tory voting areas]
I'm not seeing the problem for BJ to be honest
A bloke in our office came back from nothern italy feeling a bit ropey, self isolated, no-ones heard of him for a few days and now there is a coronavirus case in Swansea.. I'm mildy perturbed!
edit. turns out its not him.. there goes my two week isolation training camp!
A good time not to be PM I think 🙂
Depends on your point of view, it's probably a good time to be PM rather than anyone else
I think it's kinda f'd up that the media /we are talking about the economic impact, but I've had three projects cancelled/postponed by this.... Small projects, but no one wants to be part of the problem....
A friend of mine works at a agency. They had already built their booth in Barcelona before the fair was cancelled.
I think the economic effects of this will be more of a disruption than the deaths.
fully expecting the big trade show in late march at excel I’m doing to be cancelled…
Fully hoping the one I've got at NEC gets canned. But it won't because the target demographic is almost entirely "covid19? sorry mate, snowball's chance in hell" and the universe hates me almost as much as I hate trade shows.
theatlantic.com - You’re Likely to Get the Coronavirus
The emerging consensus among epidemiologists is that the most likely outcome of this outbreak is a new seasonal disease—a fifth “endemic” coronavirus. With the other four, people are not known to develop long-lasting immunity. If this one follows suit, and if the disease continues to be as severe as it is now, “cold and flu season” could become “cold and flu and COVID-19 season.”
<gulp>
Yep, I think that’s a reasonable assumption.
What I don’t understand is why people don’t get some immunity from other Coronaviruses.
This towering genius just came on sky tv claiming he knew better than medics and that we should all start flying again.
https://mobile.twitter.com/ppaulcharles?lang=en
Now on 5th consecutive day of chunky falls on all stock markets globally and futures markets don't show any bright spots.
There would usually have been a market bounce, possibly short-lived, in the midst of market falls but.....nothing at all.
Anyone buying into the market yet?
Waiting for both johnson, BoE, trump to comment.
EDIT - mark carney has commented about economic impact.
What I don’t understand is why people don’t get some immunity from other Coronaviruses.
Taking the 'common cold' coronavirus as an example, you do get immunity from the particular strain you contract, because your immune system adapts to recognise the mechanism it uses to bind to cells. But if a virus circulates in a large reservoir of hosts, then it is more likely it will mutate to subtly change the way it looks to your immune system. So at any one time, there could be a large number of strains, and you're only immune to the few of them you've encountered.
The point being that if Covid 19 gets into enough people, it can continue a worldwide cycle of infection, immunity and mutation, and keep rolling out new strains, whereas if it is restricted to only a smallish number (like SARS), then the likelihood of mutation, coupled with widespread onward transmission, is much smaller.
