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We already know that people who come into contact with a very heavy viral load are much more likely to die and this puts many health and care workers at risk.
Thinking about Nightingale vs that hanger photo Drac put up pages back. The hanger was brutally horrible but a lot less surfaces to clean. Nightgale may have dignity and privacy but it looks like a lot of touchy touchy surfaces.
BBC News – Coronavirus: Exercise out of the home ‘could be banned’ if people flout rules
You could still exercise people - it would really make it feel like a police state / prison. We have a lot of park run organisers / events companies - it would likely end up being street by street. You're out, you exercise, you're in. In much the same way as other business are providing solutions I'm fairly sure events one's could sort something sensible. It's only really the larger towns and cities that need it. Villages near me seem to have sorted themselves out. Of course this all assumes people will follow the rules and not go all great escape.
What I’m struggling with is that there isn’t to be a forced isolation
This!
My mate got back from New York last week (which has more deaths than UK?), he said they just landed at Heathrow & everyone got straight on tube
Colleagues returning to Germany & Italy both faced checks at airports
You’re out, you exercise, you’re in
Just like the 6 bell ends on road bikes who went passed me this morning.
I bet my pension they don't all live together.
Our lockdown is pushed out til 26th (certainly subject to another couple of weeks) but talk of letting non essential sectors resume activity from 9th, eg construction.
We locked down (no exercise) on 15th March and the death rate has fallen for a few consecutive days now, so you can probably translate that for the UK timeline.
Although the local/provincial infections and deaths were up yesterday.
While the deaths are going to be bad, I am starting to get concerned about the longer effects, all those who will have suffered lung damage are going to be needing extensive care and prophylactic treatment.
disclaimer - like tired I work for gsk and we are one of the leaders in respiratory drugs, but I am hoping that we do not see in increase in lung diseases
Yeah permanent lung damage is something which scares me more than death TBH.
I think if the 2 I would take the damage, but the potential level of illness as a result could be huge
So.. Im sure i've read recently somewhere that Matt Hancock said it was OK to drive a short distance to exercise?? Can anyone post me a link to this please
Would ongoing lung damage make people more susceptible to future "regular" flu in future winters, increasing death rates and NHS pressure even more?
Chatting with a health worker who reckoned it turns your lungs into a saturated sponge.
Normally lungs relatively dry and like a dry sponge air movement througj the sponge is fine
The antibody reaction to a deep lumg infection fills your lungs with fluid thst you cannot breathe through. Like a soaking wet sponge and you suffocate
Sounds grim
I guess it depends on the damage I guess, but you would assume any weakness in the lungs in the form of scar tissue or increased reactivity to stimulators would increase the risk of respiratory infections
My neighbours parents have just rocked up in their car and picked up the grandchildren for a day out.
It doesn't surprise me they share a non functioning brain cell between them.
I haven't been closely following what's going on in the UK over the last few weeks - so maybe this has been discussed already, but last night I caught up with a couple of friends on Facetime.
The two things they both seemed sure of were that the British government had no intention of trying to stop this thing, but wanted to give the impression that they did. Hence the "pretend lockdown" the other thing was that the new hospital in London wasn't a hospital at all, but a standby mortuary!
Possibilities? or do my friends need medication and a comfy room to stay in for a while?
singletrackmind
Member
Chatting with a health worker who reckoned it turns your lungs into a saturated sponge.
Normally lungs relatively dry and like a dry sponge air movement througj the sponge is fine
The antibody reaction to a deep lumg infection fills your lungs with fluid thst you cannot breathe through. Like a soaking wet sponge and you suffocate
Sounds grim
Aye that rings true, there's a guy that does the backend stuff on another forum I go on, basically came on to say good bye, that's his issue, lungs are just completely filled with fluid and are utterly gubbed. Heartbreaking.
The mixed and vague messages from the government has been a real problem. Telling people it's ok to drive a short distance to exercise is a license for everyone to drive to local beauty spots and parks. It's so dumb. The government is scared to set rules like a bad teacher.
It is potentially sensible to allow travel to exercise - if that's in a less crowded space that where you live
We shouldn't conflate that with morons taking the piss
I'd like to see clamping of cars at busy beauty spots - note attached saying "call this number - we'll release your car today but you'll have to wait unless there is an urgent reason for you having parked here"
That and sending a fire engine or maybe Boris' water cannon round the odd park/beach to soak a few groups now and again
Wouldn't need many, get it in the news - maybe escalate to crushing after a week or two more if it's still not heeded
maybe escalate to crushing after a week or two
Cars or groups of non-compliers?
Cars or groups of non-compliers?
yup
It is potentially sensible to allow travel to exercise – if that’s in a less crowded space that where you live
So they can mingle with people from miles around at the local beauty spot and the virus can be further spread?
So they can mingle with people from miles around at the local beauty spot and the virus can be further spread?
That’s people being thick and not understanding social distancing means, you can’t blame the government for the arrogant.
No Rydster.
I drive 5 min every day to one of the large woodland areas surrounding my house, to walk my spaniels. If I walked from the door I would bump into the village old folk taking their daily exercise/dog walk. Doing it my way I leave the village paths for them, and see nobody.
Im in Sussex, but no way Im going to The South Downs, Beachy Head, or the beach - just quiet local woodland via access points nobody ever uses.
@tpbiker I missed your questions.
It’s a huge effort to develop a new drug. Most people have no idea how much work. I’m looking at some of our previous drugs (that may have a use but never made it to approval stage), and some established medicines that can be used now.
A physician can legally prescribe any approved medicine, even for a different indication. But if one says you need chemo for your ingrowing toenail, seek a second opinion 😉 . So lots of people are scrabbling to test things they CAN prescribe now. And will then test what cannot.
Early treatment is often the best prevention. That’s why in the H1N1 pandemic in 2009 you only had to say your partner had symptoms and you’d be given the drug from the pharmacist. We don’t have those (tested and approved) drugs for COVID19 yet. When we do, same thing.
I foresee a box of hydroxychloroquine in every medicine cupboard for first symptom signs. One day perhaps. Wait for the BIG trials.
These are worth a read. Evidence will come.
https://fullfact.org/online/chloroquine-coronavirus/
[TL:DR] have to TEST a new drug properly to become an APPROVED medicine, but doctors can and are trying current medicines where there is a reason to think they will be helpful. And treating early is normally a good thing.
The two things they both seemed sure of were that the British government had no intention of trying to stop this thing, but wanted to give the impression that they did. Hence the “pretend lockdown” the other thing was that the new hospital in London wasn’t a hospital at all, but a standby mortuary!
I'd say nonsense. Government missed opportunities, definitely. No one can "stop" this as such, it's about controlling the spread to minimise the hospital crisis.
There is a large morgue at the new Nightingale, but the ice rinks will be used as the main morgues.
The mixed and vague messages from the government has been a real problem. Telling people it’s ok to drive a short distance to exercise is a license for everyone to drive to local beauty spots and parks. It’s so dumb. The government is scared to set rules like a bad teacher.
This x 1000.
Official message, message from Boris, memes on social media, a doorstepped interview with a random minister saying something else (usually a whole pile of waffle to try to hide the fact they literally haven't got a clue), a few news reports mixed in with the Daily Wail doing its usual OUTRAGE!!! blame game (within hours of Boris confirming he had it, they were blaming the EU which is impressive even by their standards).
This is worth a read:
https://twitter.com/JohnBaker1975/status/1246746102914846720
The government is scared to set rules like a bad teacher.
Absolutely. Most people respond well if facts are explained clearly without emotive language. Some won’t but I think most will. Even those faced with hardship, if it is explained clearly how the country will look after them (it will, and those who can will be paying for a decade, but so be it - I am happy to do so).
The government has failed in its communication because the communicators don’t have that clarity. I only post on matters on which I do. Their job is to do the same.
Stuff is always harder and more complex than you think. There’s no shame in admitting that, and telling them we don’t know but have better minds working on it than mine. That is called leadership. See that testing nonsense earlier.
Next weekend is the real test, for everyone of us furloughed/WFH there's also people still having to go into work and next weekend will be their first chance this year to properly blow off steam
I'm pleasantly surprised by how well the majority have done thus far
I’d actually forgot it’s a bank holiday weekend
Never underestimate the power of stupid
Local guy dressed up as Deadshot the Marvel antihero.
Plasters the route on bookface then walks around the street with an imitation fire arm
You know where this is going.....
On cue 2 x Armed response vehicles plus 4 copers plus a helicopter overhead and the guy is taken down at gunpoint, in a sleepy small seeside town, inhabited by morons
The Government weren’t clear that you can’t wander around as a Marvel character holding an imitation firearm.
Local guy dressed up as Deadshot the Marvel antihero.
it's DC comics actually......
The Government weren’t clear that you can’t wander around as a Marvel character holding an imitation firearm.
Presumably Ant Man and Wasp are safe from contracting Coronavirus.
You can’t see them so should be fine. I can’t see anywhere they say you can’t.
TiRed - how scaleable is Hydroxychloroquine in the short term? If it works then every country in the world is going to want it.
That and sending a fire engine or maybe Boris’ water cannon round the odd park/beach to soak a few groups now and again
Good luck with that! given the treatment the government have dishes out to the Fire Service over the years. The Boris cannons were scrapped many years ago, another great Boris idea that cost money.
I've just got back from a local ride (up to Buckstones and back for W Yorks locals). Anyway quite a few motorbikes out and cars randomly parked up with several people in them.
At the car park at the top that looks down to March Haigh Res, there were 10 cars and a van. Most had people in them smoking, drinking and chatting to the car next to them..they were parked so close that their mirrors were folded in. Mostly people in 20s and 30s but some older. Absolute muppets
I’m pleasantly surprised by how well the majority have done thus far
Me too it's been very well observed where I am. In local beauty spots the police and local authority have been out. Friends in that-London say it's dead despite the media images. I don't know how long we'll maintain this but so far so good from what I've seen. (Early days yet.)
TiRed – how scaleable is Hydroxychloroquine in the short term? If it works then every country in the world is going to want it.
V good question. Someone who knows about these things will be along shortly but given one of the stated advantages is "availability" and low cost I'm thinking it might be very easy to manufacture in volume.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41421-020-0156-0
So.. Im sure i’ve read recently somewhere that Matt Hancock said it was OK to drive a short distance to exercise?? Can anyone post me a link to this please
MH's instruction here:
https://twitter.com/MattHancock/status/1246122731411853321
Hydroxychloroquine hasn't shown any advantages in properly controlled trials so far. It's part of the national trial process however so more data will confirm this. A French physician was promoting it but he is renowned for adjusting data to suit end results so not reliable.
TiRed – how scaleable is Hydroxychloroquine in the short term?
I’m Research and Development not CMC ;-). Truth be told, I have no idea. But it’s an old drug which I expect can be made in kilo quantities, most likely in India and China.
https://www.beilstein-journals.org/bjoc/articles/14/45
Is interesting
France changes advice on face masks and orders billions
MH’s instruction here:
That's funny OOB, coz 24hrs earlier Matt Hancock said it was fine to go for a short drive to go for some exercise
54 mins in
www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m000gxw2
Matt Hancock has been caught out lying so often now, I'm amazed anyone believes a word he says
I've read that several Indian API manufacturers have switched to making hydroxychloroquine. It's a well establshed synthesis so supply shouldramp up soon. But the population of India is likely to come first in line. Given the speed of our own government at taking action, the UK will be well down the list.
We've just had some information about the evangelical religious meeting in Mulhouse where the problems in eastern France started. TF1 showed some video of the meeting which had a multi-generational audience. 2500 people attended for several days. 2000 of whom were infected and of those over 20 have died. I find those numbers impressive in a bad way. It demostrates just how infectious the virus is and its impact on an apparently fit and active audience. And that was with some really good hospitals with all the necessary ICU capacity to deal with the victims.
If ever there was a sample that tells us the human cost of the herd approach would be huge this is it. I'll take confinement over those numbers thank you.
Shutters painted, front door nearly finished, outhouse wall cleaned prepped and ready for paint on Wednesday. Commiserations to those of you who don't have private outdoor space and are only allowed out for essentials. Fingers crossed for those who are sick or know someone who is.
They should be able to ramp up chloroquine production fairly quickly.
just depends on who is registered as a manufacturer and in which jurisdictions.
just because someone can make either the api or the finished product doesn't mean they will be able to sell it or use it.
that being said there are countries that will accept it anyway, but based on a lot of the fda 483's and the level of control required for the ma's it would be surprising if it immediately made a difference to availability.
Sorry should add some clarity to this.
a marketing authorisation requires that all api producers be approved and licensed, plus subject to regulatory inspection and the company must have conducted due diligence on their suppliers. Ultimately a qp will have to sign off on the batch for release into the uk or Europe, this cannot be devolved to the country of manufacture (if that is outside the eu, inc the uk for now), so every batch will also have to be tested within the eu and approved on top of any potential ma reg changes.
however if they are already registered then the manufacturers would simply need to test more, which could be a bottle neck, but small molecules are pretty easy to test providing people don't delete data