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Indeed and some of these papers are 'conversation starters' which normally don't see the light of day outside of academia. Someone might plug some 'what if?' numbers into a model and see what they get. As us laypeople see it going on in real-time we're apt to overinterpret what's going on. Science isn't a clean process.
This is not working out for me at least, stressed to ****!
Sorry to see that, I know it's not really much consolation but hang in there and keep talking to people. It's probably the talking that's the main thing.
slowoldman
I don’t think the monarch would be used in this way. It’s for government to make (and announce) policy. It’ll probably be a “stiff upper lip, do your bit for the country” sort of thing.
No, I'm sure it will be something along the lines that she cares so much for us that she is going to liquidate the royal land holdings and art treasures to ensure we all get through these plague years safely and in good health.
No one will object if she keeps a couple of palaces, will they?
Anyone mentioned Eyam yet?
Well i must say, that was a cheery read ....🤔😂
Actually the BBC did a piece on Eyam recently when Coronavirus started here, so possibly 6 weeks ago? It must be on iPlayer
oops wrong thread!
Seems to be an awful lot of coverage on the BBC website given to the effects of coronavirus on premiership football. It's hardly important in the scheme of things is it!
Either way no one is coming out of this well. Premier club taking the absolute piss with fuloughing non playing staff, they are now using the excuse that if they don't pay the players that means less tax for the nhs...🤔
They also claim that if the league doesn't finish they'll owe the broadcasters 700m. The same broadcasters who are refusing to refund subscriptions..
Aye, spurs furloughing staff, levy taking millions out the club, players moaning. Just one example.
I used to absolute love the game when I was young, this will be the final straw for me.
An embarrassment.
Now that we know more about the lock down ..is it still ok for me to drive 3 miles to my shop to paint the walls?
It’s your job & you can’t paint it from home.
You aren’t bumping into anyone else, so why not?
What he said.
epicyclo
Subscriber
Anyone mentioned Eyam yet?https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-35064071/blockquote >
Thanks for posting that.
What a truly remarkable story about some remarkable people.
Humbling.
7-day UK prediction for next Saturday is less than 7000 deaths would be good news. Expected incidence is 1000 deaths/day, with 10000 deaths a signifincant milestonw at the higher end of the prediction. There is some support for a peak, but I think it will be later than Easter Sunday. Recent global data seems to has pushed the peak out several weeks. Still a little early to call.
Nothing to add apart from
1) thanks TiRed
2) I'm post 7000!! Wahey
If we peak in mid- April, then the tail of the curve is still very long. How many months until we get to a point where new infection rate is more manageable?
less than 7000 deaths would be good news.
Wow! That's sobering news. It's appreciated though TiRed, thanks for sharing your information and expertise.
Thanks for sharing TiRed - hope you're feeling better.
============================
On the immunity certificates issue:
The Independent - scientist against / views as dangerous
Considering deaths were/are doubling every 3 days, 7000 by next Saturday would be a considerable slow down. Remember those curves are log scale, so with no slowdown we could be at 17000 by next weekend.
We haven’t seen Chris Witty for a while since he developed symptoms - I hope he is ok.
Just a couple of Twitter posts. But no idea if he posted them or someone from comms
"Considering deaths were/are doubling every 3 days, 7000 by next Saturday would be a considerable slow down. Remember those curves are log scale, so with no slowdown we could be at 17000 by next weekend."
I assumed he meant 7000 new deaths this week (1000/day), so we would be at about 11-12,000 total next weekend. Which is still less than 17,000 and would imply a slowdown.
We haven’t seen Chris Witty for a while since he developed symptoms – I hope he is ok.
Was thinking the same.
Removed.
Hancock bounced back fairly swiftly, but Witty and Bodger are taking far longer.
It's odd how it gets everyone differently.
Thanks for explaining the stats TiRed, our trust is expecting peak demand to be on or around 14th; they seem fairly confident with that prediction.
Where are you stretch?
Number is cumulative. So less than 7000 total would be good news. Sadly 10000 total and 1000/day is also within the prediction interval for incidence.
Feeling a bit better. Just took my Reston night HR and it is 54. So getting there (I was nowhere near race fit before). Exertion brings it up quite a bit.
The post positive sign is that my palmar psoriasis is back and pale is itching like mad. That’s an immune system switch, probably as the innate immune system turns down.
Dan - Northern England. Our local cases are a little behind the curve at the moment which I think will result in us receiving some from other areas
“For example: it would be fair to assume part of the price for let it burn is going to included a lot of health care professionals. Never mind selling the Granny are we ready to sacrifice the people who keep us fit and well for a bit of profit?“
For me this is why I’m completely happy to isolate and maintain social distancing for as long as it takes.
It’s all very well saying we should end the lockdown but the certain result is there will be huge numbers of very sick people requiring treatment by health and care workers.
We already know that people who come into contact with a very heavy viral load are much more likely to die and this puts many health and care workers at risk.
I’m personally not willing to sacrifice health and care workers who by virtue of their jobs have to take a risk the wider public would not themselves be willing to take.
I think the lockdown is a bit of a piss-take while a large portion of the workforce are still working on non-essential things. The 30 mile section of roadworks on the M1 was packed with workers in small groups, all being forced within a few inches of each other to hold conversations over the noise of the traffic. Also willing to bet they have to share transport to get to and from where they're parking their cars.
The companies responsible should be keeping their workers safely at home either on full pay or the furlough scheme. I'm pretty sure the M1 will survive 2 months.
Genuine critical workers are putting themselves at risk unnecessarily when the construction workers start arriving in hospital en masse.
What the coronavirus does to your body that makes it so deadly
COVID-19 is caused by a coronavirus called SARS-CoV-2. Coronaviruses belong to a group of viruses that infect animals, from peacocks to whales. They’re named for the bulb-tipped spikes that project from the virus’s surface and give the appearance of a corona surrounding it.
A coronavirus infection usually plays out one of two ways: as an infection in the lungs that includes some cases of what people would call the common cold, or as an infection in the gut that causes diarrhea. COVID-19 starts out in the lungs like the common cold coronaviruses, but then causes havoc with the immune system that can lead to long-term lung damage or death.
SARS-CoV-2 is genetically very similar to other human respiratory coronaviruses, including SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV. However, the subtle genetic differences translate to significant differences in how readily a coronavirus infects people and how it makes them sick.
https://theconversation.com/what-the-coronavirus-does-to-your-body-that-makes-it-so-deadly-133856
Could be worse, we could be Dutch
BBC News - Coronavirus: Why Dutch lockdown may be a high-risk strategy
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52135814
BBC News - Coronavirus: Exercise out of the home 'could be banned' if people flout rules
Bloody marvellous, my 45 minute lunchtime cycle was the only thing keeping me sane
It was initially embraced by the Dutch government too, but then rapidly repackaged as a useful by-product rather than the main goal.
From the BBC Dutch article.
Exactly the same thinkig as the British government IMO, hence lockdown light.
then keep doing it and look after yourself.
besides, how many times have you picked up a fine for riding 3 abreast, jumping red lights, riding on pavements and the wrong way down one way streets. Apparently 'we' do that all the time.
Nice article that. But I am not wholly convinced by the inital immune system response. I had almost NO symptoms except a dull pain at the base of my lungs that felt a bit like indigestion. I then gradually lost oxygen saturation over about four days. The virus infects the alveoli sacs in the deep lung, shuts down surfactant and then gas exchange is reduced. Later, I am sure, pneumonia-like infitration of immune cells and a shift in coagulation status (classic shock symptoms) are serious complications. The rest is spot on, particularly using ACE2 as the viral entry point for an enzyme that regulates blood pressure. That may then block the function of this enzyme on the surface of cells. Science is learning the Biology as we go...
[TL:DR] COVID-19 symptoms of cough and temperature _may_ be signs that your body is fighting off the virus before it gets nasty and deep into the lungs. Absence of those signs, with an ache that feels like indigestion under the ribs might lead to more serious issues. You need to lubricate your lungs like your chain. Neither run well otherwise.
And you need to lubricate your lungs like your chain.
FINALLY… using terms we understand.
= ;87)
Seriously, your contributions are fascinating. Keep ‘em coming. Get well soon.
As posted a few pages back - looks like the repatriation flights will get my sister and family out of India. Good news.
What I'm struggling with is that there isn't to be a forced isolation...
And they are talking about driving 4hrs, flying Chennai to Dehli, stay overnight, then Heathrow, then a group of them driving up the country, dropping folk off at various places, stay somewhere overnight probably near my dad so they can see him (77 and big health issues), before heading to Moray where they have been offered a house for free...
They're making plans to meet up with friends 'nearby' in Moray and talking of being able to walk to the supermarket...
They're also faffing with how much baggage they can bring, including bikes...
For reference my sister is a nurse.
I'm glad they're getting out. I'm feeling like they are being totally selfish and unaware of the issues they are possibly causing. FFS.
What I’m struggling with is that there isn’t to be a forced isolation…
It’s much much cheaper to rely on people getting back to their own homes, and voluntarily isolating themselves once there. I don’t think they imagine anyone doing what your family is looking to do, and hopefully few are.
Never underestimate the power of stupid
Girl in office rings in sck. I have a temperature she says. Stupid manager says, Can you come in for the morning and we'll see how you feel at lunchtime, there's quite a lot to do.
Soon to be available, rocky mountain element in L, giant propel in M and. Roubaux in M flava also
I’m feeling like they are being totally selfish and unaware of the issues they are possibly causing
MOab - I think you need to be very, very clear that a lot of what they are proposing is in breach of lockdown guidelines, especially getting anywhere close to your father. If they want to see him, they can do it from 3 metres away
I’m guessing peak hospital demand will be at least a week ahead of peak “reported” deaths, as there is such a lag in the figures, plus admissions will tail off before deaths.
BTW, based on family COVID/TiRed, I think this virus is incredibly infectious. The unit is the household. If one of you in the household has it, then I think you all will either have it or catch it. Four in our house and a spectrum from mild to severe. None with any underlying conditions. The fittest has definitely been hit the hardest so far. I've had the who gets what bike discussion 😉 .