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Not in my prediction interval (your’s is too high). As I have previously stated, less than 3000 (on today’s model prediction) total this time next week would be good news. I only post what I would like it for good news.
I truly hope i'm wrong, and hope the 381 quoted yesterday was as a result of admin catching up reporting after the weekend, rather than an underlying increase.
Will the inhabitants of Wuhan ever be able to remove their masks? The limited pictures coming out of there don't inspire confidence.
Don't suppose any of their civilian population have a choice.
Anyone quoting their data, as gospel, seriously needs their head looking at.
But yeah, go Britain – we’re amazing etc. Boris is doing such a great job. What a lad.
OK genius, tell us what you'd do instead ?
Protect the staff and contain the virus within the temporary hospital in the way other countries have. This same field hospital approach has hit staff hard across Europe. The Chinese approach may well be costly to replicate here… but what happened “do whatever it takes”? We are relying on our NHS staff (current and volunteering to return) to risk taking a bullet, rather than build and install the kit that could keep them safe.
For the last 15 years going to China/japan wearing masks has always been commonplace there
Will the inhabitants of Wuhan ever be able to remove their masks?
Par for the course in Chinese city dweller's normal daily life anyway, thanks to pollution, says my pub-fact type uneducated opinion.
At the moment you can’t fail to be impressed at the way some things are coming together now.
While I'm seeing crowdfunding campaigns to get PPE for healthcare workers, I remain unimpressed.
Even Trump is now mocking the UK's handling of the crisis.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1245206635309600769
All that means is that Boris has been too ill/busy to praise Trump recently.
All that means is the orange one has a need to divert attention from the shit job he's doing.
Matt
the 381 quoted yesterday was as a result of admin catching up
It was - they said so on R4 PM and also in the daily conference at 5pm.
Which is good because there weren't 381 deaths yesterday, but bad because the previous four day in a row decline in deaths in the UK was not real. (Presumably the three day decline in deaths in other countries *was* real?)
The lesson I've learned is never check the numbers until *after* I've heard some credible analysis of them!
Now they're threatening health workers who speak out about dire shortages. It's imperative that others take up this baton and run with it. 3 of our 4 work in the NHS and one's a teacher and we're worried sick. Mrs is waiting on a delivery of fabric to start making scrubs.
Someone has told him that even saying “herd immunity” can result in a dangerous response from the public, as it runs counter to messages to stop/slow the spread. That he has taken on that advice and acted on it is a fantastic surprise. Much as it sticks in my throat… well done Trump!
what are the implications for war torn countries
I can't think of a word other than tragic.
Colleagues on covid wards are emailing me asking how they disinfect & reuse protective equipment, I have no clue either!
Even Trump is now mocking the UK’s handling of the crisis.
Despite "bury head in sand" being his own approach at the start of the US outbreak.
As usual, he will be excellent, anything else will be fake news.
That’s just a distraction from the Donald
No doubt as they’re staring down the barrel of a massive catastrophe and being made to look incompetent by they’re leading competitor on the global stage
But it’s April now, and apparently these things just go away in April according to the Donald himself
I had a wobble last night which has continued into today. I’ll need to go out and get supplies and short or long term the predictions are that everyone will get the virus over the next 12 months or so anyway.
i really don’t want to be in a C19 ward knowing I’ll never see my kids again without saying goodbye, nor do I want the same for my immunity compromised wife. Putting an outward brave face on for the family but for the first time I’m genuinely scared.
Sorry, but I had to get it out somewhere.
Kryton - we've all felt that in some way, better to speak out than bottle bit up.
Despite the genuine worries and doom mongering, the vast majority of people who catch it will not need hospital treatment. I appreciate your concerns for your wife are a different matter.
I've had a chat with the boy so if I get the virus then this is what I want to happen ... and didn't mince my words. He said he knew that I would say that and he was going to phone his sister to tell her.
It had to be said.
Kryton - no need to apologise. Had very similar thoughts and a wobble myself. Harder to keep perspective sometimes, esp as number of cases increases.
Serious wobble myself last night. Shortness of breath, tingling fingers, weakness in arms, muscle pain. The Covid action plan is:
Call 111 for triage
Called back by nurse
Called back by doctor
Put on assessment watch list
Called by Covid response team to house in the morning.
Slept OK. Then at 9:30 a van arrived with a lovely trainee paramedic (half way through first year of masters, wow what a training).
Took all SATs and I’m ok. When your resting HR on the bed is 70+ (race fit is 45), it’s unusual to say the least. You will know your bodies, and I know mine.
System is brand new from last week. It works in Windsor and is to keep you OUT of the wards. Will be the same elsewhere I believe. I would not be able to have such an assessment at my GP, and I don’t want to swamp A&E.
Sadly other bad stuff will still happen. If you have chest pain call 999. If you have confusion and severe shortness of breath, the same.
I was impressed. Take care Kryton. And be sure to rest properly. I’ve had serious influenza several times. High temp, shivers, aches, nausea. I had none of that this time., just the occasional peaky spike, headache on and off, but a slow And progressive construction that limited my oxygenation. Very insidious. I feel I’m coming out of it. Teen 2 had the cough and temperature, Mrs TiRed has cough. Son1 has nausea.
14 days inside coding models of the epidemic and finding drugs for it. Not so bad.
Now onto the nonsense about testing. The RNA viral test is one of the most significant biochemical reactions in history. It is not acid + base = salt + water.
It needs two “reagent” a primer that is the compliment of the bit of virus coding you want to find, and an enzyme that you need to blow up the DNA you make from the primer.
That enzyme is called polymerase. It’s not potassium permanganate and you make it in a bioreactor.
The world was set up for a level of DNA testing, so supply was set at that level (economics). Then suddenly, there is a global exponential demand for this and the special primer. So it’s going to be hard to source the “reagents”.
Nice explanation here https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/qz.com/1822596/all-the-coronavirus-test-materials-in-short-supply-in-the-us/amp/
Sadly scientific illiteracy leads to facile comments from politicians and journos. Maybe after this we’ll be a better informed society.
[TL:DR] virus test needs special biological enzyme and custom molecules, not just basic ingredients. Global supply is limited and you can’t just ramp up instantly. Imagine we all went paella mad, the rush on saffron exhaust supply. Same thing.
Get well soon TiRed. We need folk like you right now.
Take care of yourself TiRed and thank you for opening my eyes with your informative posts.
OK genius, tell us what you’d do instead ?
I’d have listened to the experts who war gamed a pandemic years ago – and foreign experts. Instead of a special adviser who somehow suffers from the Dunning Kruger effect and yet states he listens to the experts (judging by his blog, only those who he personally admires and conforms with ideologically). I wouldn’t have shown rank incompetence in responding to things like the European drive for ventilators either.
Take care of yourself TiRed and thank you for opening my eyes with your informative posts.
+1
and short or long term the predictions are that everyone will get the virus over the next 12 months or so anyway.
Cruise ships are a virus paradise. For that reason elderly people particularly are strongly advised to avoid them for the time being.
Indeed the Diamond Princesses made the news headlines when there was an outbreak of COVID-19 onboard and her passengers where stranded unable to disembark.
And yet less than 25% of those onboard the Diamond Princesses eventually tested positive for COVID-19. A remarkably low figure and all the more so when you consider the likely average age and probable health condition of those onboard.
For whatever reasons it would appear that catching COVID-19 is not inevitable.
Get well soon Tired.
I too am having a proper wobble, with an immune compromised wife (with history of chest infections and nights in ITU without warning), 78 year old father at the other end of the country with serious heart conditions and haemachromatosis, a mother in law recovering from cancer treatment and a sister and family stuck in a compound but due to be leaving India on 16th of April followed by two weeks enforced isolation in a Heathrow hotel...I cannot see all of us coming out of this so well. 🙁
TiRed - good to know your getting better and thanks for your informative fact-based posts.
Would it make you feel better that I’m currently reformatting 150k records so someone like you can make sense of them.
It’s a ******* ball ache if I’m honest 😆
Colleagues on covid wards are emailing me asking how they disinfect & reuse protective equipment, I have no clue either!
A random collection of thoughts.
Does heat kill the virus, could you:
Steam it with one of those hand held steamers?
If it's fabric could you hot / steam iron it?
Can you microwave it?
Wash / scrub in soapy water? Use nikwax or a liquid soap?
Good old mild detol?
For whatever reasons it would appear that catching COVID-19 is not inevitable.
Not many contagious diseases are.
Updated position.
Not great reading
https://twitter.com/DHSCgovuk?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor
Total deaths now 2,352 a rise of 563
Also 44% of the additional test results are positive which shows that we are starting to struggle with testing capacity.
I’d have listened to the experts who war gamed a pandemic years ago – and foreign experts. Instead of a special adviser who somehow suffers from the Dunning Kruger effect and yet states he listens to the experts (judging by his blog, only those who he personally admires and conforms with ideologically). I wouldn’t have shown rank incompetence in responding to things like the European drive for ventilators either.
And how would you have funded it all in this mythical past ? Budget from schools/education ? Poice forces ? Ambulances ? Roads ? Armed forces ? or.... well..... errrrm, you tell me.
Why did none of the other countries prepare for this pandemic for the whole of their society ? How would you have persuaded our government to do so ?
TiRed – wishing you a speedy recovery
ernielynch
Member
and short or long term the predictions are that everyone will get the virus over the next 12 months or so anyway.Cruise ships are a virus paradise. For that reason elderly people particularly are strongly advised to avoid them for the time being.
Indeed the Diamond Princesses made the news headlines when there was an outbreak of COVID-19 onboard and her passengers where stranded unable to disembark.
And yet less than 25% of those onboard the Diamond Princesses eventually tested positive for COVID-19. A remarkably low figure and all the more so when you consider the likely average age and probable health condition of those onboard.
For whatever reasons it would appear that catching COVID-19 is not inevitable.
Slightly different context from real life though, on the cruise ship, they would have been isolated in their rooms, which is a parallel to the current situation, but they've all been disembarked from that ship now. That is a parallel that we can't match.
We can't disembark from this.
So the Diamond Princess is a limited analogy.
Didn’t Tired suggest it would be good news if we kept to below 2500 by Friday? Virtually there after today’s figures ☹️
Thank you all. Am feeling a lot better than yesterday. I’ll update my predictions on. Latest data I can also estimate detrended fluctuations from day to day. In an exponential process, big ups and big downs are not unusual.
One swallow is not a summer, but a thousand sparrows is a murmuration.
Don’t expect that kind of good news. Do hope for things to be no worse than in other European countries at the same point. We’re not really doing anything above and beyond what they did at the same point, so there’s little reason to hope it’ll be much, or any, better for us. But likewise, there is no obvious reasons why it should be worse.
Sadly scientific illiteracy leads to facile comments from politicians and journos.
This. The media should be sending their science and health correspondents to all media events. Their bog standard politics hacks aren't doing the job.
And yet less than 25% of those onboard the Diamond Princesses eventually tested positive for COVID-19. A remarkably low figure and all the more so when you consider the likely average age and probable health condition of those onboard.
That's based on an antigen test, not an antibody test. Without an antibody test we have no idea how many people on DP had it.
That’s based on an antigen test, not an antibody test. Without an antibody test we have no idea how many people on DP had it.
Do we even know what proportion of the ship's population were tested?
There is a big focus on testing, rightly for the key workers, to enable them to do their jobs, but until we are at the point of relaxing controls, using proper testing and tracing methods, actually knowing that little billy from down the street had it is not going to help in the short term.
Matt
It's probably been asked @TiRed but I take it you do stuff like this for a living?