I accept he probably had to resign.
But a bit annoyed that the Press still think bringing down an expert at this time is a good use of their time, and in the national interest.
And also suspicious that a guy who I understand was pro-lockdown has been skillfully removed just as we start planning to come out of lockdown. The cynic in me wonders who tipped off the press and/or jealous husband
When we have the benefit of hindsight I wonder what the verdict will be about the way the govt has handled this?
At the moment the story seems to change each day.
The golden rule of don't listen to their words, watch their actions, will make their policy more apparent.
I can't see that it's possible to maintain full lockdown for much longer, so the virus is going to creep into all corners of the community, slower maybe, but more comprehensively.
Like many in my age group, I'm wondering if I'll still be around by the end of the year after it inevitably comes my way.
It's a real bummer. When I was a lad we had the Cold War and the imminent prospect of instant Nuclear annihilation, and like many of my generation I didn't expect to live to 30.
At least we had sex, drugs, and rock'n roll and made full use of that (in my case substitute motorbikes for drugs).
It's a right bugger trying to find an age appropriate substitute for 2 of those now.
The motorbike is getting fettled though. 🙂
The doubling time for deaths in the UK was 1.9 days. Globally it was 2.9.
Thanks, so when the other day you said Germany locked down at about the same stage as us did we have a greater doubling time already or after. I think you said behaviour rather than lock down was the difference so presumably they had a lower fig before lock down which implies we should of locked down earlier than Germany? Interesting stuff.
So as an example Sweden looks after its citizens very well when ill so doesnt have the culture of struggling into work ill which may explain why their lockdown didnt need to be as prescriptive, they do that stuff anyway.
As always More or less well worth a listen today for some non-hysterical facts on CV:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m000htw2
I think you said behaviour rather than lock down was the difference so presumably they had a lower fig before lock down which implies we should of locked down earlier than Germany?
They did have a lower doubling time initially. It wasn’t huge, if I recall - I’ll check later as I save every daily analysis.
For the U.K., yes there is no doubt that reducing transmission earlier would have had a big effect. But we did not. Although proposed, nobody thought the public would buy it. Only after SEEING Italy and Spain accept the lockdown did the U.K. act. That cost us perhaps 10 days. That was five doubling times. And 2^5 is errr 32x. Naive calculation but likely we’d be, say 4x lower at least, just because it would have taken a while for exponential growth to get started. That’s current about 30k deaths btw, as of yesterday.
Only after SEEING Italy and Spain accept the lockdown did the U.K. act
So it comes back to we waited for 2 weeks watching Italy and Spain, and that has cost 10's of thousands of lives.
Although proposed, nobody thought the public would buy it.
I'm going to be more interested in seeing how much was no one thought and how much was down playing the idea. That sort of insight could be years away yet. If you have a part of sage or the transmission mechanism of information to the PM pushing herd they aren't going to be pushing lockdown. The need to get to critical mess, if you like.
I can’t see that it’s possible to maintain full lockdown for much longer, so the virus is going to creep into all corners of the community, slower maybe, but more comprehensively.
Lockdown was only ever intended to slow the transmission so the NHS could cope. Without a vaccine some form of restrictions are needed, but however unpleasant and unpopular the thought us, someone somewhere is having to make a judgement call on whether the medium to long term health and death rates from the economic impacts will be greater than easing restrictions and letting the virus spread a but more. Who is feeding into that process and their motives is a worry.
It's clear errors were made from the start in the UK, and the government and it's advisors will not come out well. My concern is that all those baying for blood and someone to blame in an inquiry will prevent a proper, honest disclosure of facts and decision making so that the right lessons can be learnt. I'd sooner a Truth and Reconciliation style enquiry rather than a lynch mob.
Personally? I'm 51, male, and overweight although fitter than average. If NHS capacity is not exceeded I should survive to see my teenagers grow up even if I catch it. I treat the risk no more than I consider the risk of being hit by a car while out riding. It might happen, I'll try and avoid it happening, if it happens I'll probably live, so no point stressing too much.
Personally? I’m 51, male, and overweight although fitter than average. If NHS capacity is not exceeded I should survive to see my teenagers grow up even if I catch it. I treat the risk no more than I consider the risk of being hit by a car while out riding. It might happen, I’ll try and avoid it happening, if it happens I’ll probably live, so no point stressing too much.
Thats fine on an individual level, but despite what Maggie said there is such a thing as society.
So it comes back to we waited for 2 weeks watching Italy and Spain, and that has cost 10’s of thousands of lives.
Yes. And most likely, in the subsequent rush, due consideration of other options such as Sweden, were not possible. The German response was basically: This is serious and you should avoid spread wherever possible, people comply (Germans), transmission is reduced early, lockdown can be relaxed earlier. Testing was not available in Germany when the first communications were made. It is behavioral. We had that opportunity.
Every day delay going up is about five days to a week going down.
BTW
Personally? I’m
5152, male, andovernormal weight although vastly fitter than average
And my chest is still hurting five weeks later and I have done no exercise other than gentle walking. Don't be so sure 😉
Thanks for the More or Less link OOB, always a good listen
Every day delay going up is about five days to a week going down.
There was also probably an extra week added on just by that “last Friday night down the pub” nonsense that the government facilitated.
Also, before “lock down”, allowing events with an international mass gathering (football and racing), was seen as crazy enough at the time… no hindsight required.
Thanks for the More or Less link OOB, always a good listen
Did you hear this morning’s episode? They fell straight into Cummings’ trap of wasting time on pointing out the (numerical) lies by his team, and thereby letting them set the messaging. The man is a genius, and our media easily led.
Personally? I’m 51, male, and overweight although fitter than average. If NHS capacity is not exceeded I should survive to see my teenagers grow up even if I catch it. I treat the risk no more than I consider the risk of being hit by a car while out riding. It might happen, I’ll try and avoid it happening, if it happens I’ll probably live, so no point stressing too much.
I'll be standing at the side of the road next monday as the hearse carrying a good friend of mine rolls past, the only difference between you and him by the sounds of it is that he was 3 years older than you.
Don't be so sure.
Sorry to hear that nobeer.
Did you hear this morning’s episode? They fell straight into Cummings trap of wasting time on pointing out the lies and letting them set the messaging.
They also covered trampolining, but most of it was good, interesting information heavily biased towards CV. Feel free to link to something better.
It’s clear errors were made from the start in the UK, and the government and it’s advisors will not come out well. My concern is that all those baying for blood and someone to blame in an inquiry will prevent a proper, honest disclosure of facts and decision making so that the right lessons can be learnt. I’d sooner a Truth and Reconciliation style enquiry rather than a lynch mob.
Which has all the makings of a Chilcot style enquiry going on for many years and many pages until this lot are old men and most of us can't be arsed to wade through it.
Feel free to link to something better.
Better? I really like More or Less. This week’s episode as listenable as ever… but a win for Cummings, for sure.
AA here is my plot of the UK vs. all other countries the week lock-down was announced. What would you do? BTW the doubling time in Germany on this day was 2.7 days, just under the population mean for other countries (but nothing spectacular). There are no fancy epidemiological models here, it's simple comparative exponential growth. Deaths in the UK were a clear outlier. Models came later.
What would you do?
Panic and regret previous decisions.
If I'm reading that right up to about 14 march we were bang average, then deaths accelerated putting us at the top of the spread? If I recall Italy locked down around 3rd of march, had we followed suit a week later we could have saved lives (probably), waiting another week turned it all to shit.
Exactly. The acceleration in deaths was probably a result of healthcare not coping. Italy showed a similar effect. We locked down on March 23rd. Note the log scale - we would have hit 25000 deaths by the first week in April. Lockdown has worked, but it was late coming.
It does feel like an “easy” story for the Telegraph, when there are “hard” ones that need writing that would implicate their man at No 10.
He was still in the wrong though… can’t see how he could keep his role.
Wong is wrong. It's not a sex scandal. Ferguson allowed someone outside his household to visit him twice (and the official advice had already specifically advised against contact between people in relationships living in different places). To make things worse, his partner suspected her husband was exhibiting symptoms of infection when she travelled.
Either Ferguson doesn't believe his own conclusions about the importance of isolation, or he believes that they don't apply to him, as a special case. Which is it? As you say, no way he could carry on in his official role.
The stuff about Johnson is irrelevant. Of course he should have resigned, a long time ago, for any one of his long list of failings, but he's still untouchable (at the moment).
Ferguson allowed someone outside his household to visit him twice
I don't think there is a rule about who we "allow" to do what?
The stuff about Johnson is irrelevant
Questions that probably need to be asked to the Editor of the Telegraph
1. How long have you known about this?
2. Have you released this story now to distract from Tory party failures
3. seeing as you normally lionise the Jizz fountain that is Johnson for exactly this behaviour, don't you think this is somewhat hypocritical of you?
Mleh...Apart from the first one, I think anyone with half a brain can answer the others already
Up to late March, the modellers involved in SAGE were saying that the doubling time was 5-7 days, which is an astonishing error. Absolutely unforgivable. They said we had time to spare before locking down. I don't care where he sticks his cock but Ferguson should have resigned over that more than a month ago.
Either Ferguson doesn’t believe his own conclusions about the importance of isolation, or he believes that they don’t apply to him, as a special case.
I read that he'd tested positive for the virus, recovered from it, and believed he had a level of immunity, which doesn't make it right, but does explain at one level why he might have thought it was acceptable.
Ferguson allowed someone outside his household to visit him twice
I don’t think there is a rule about who we “allow” to do what?
I thought it was pretty clear, you shouldn't have contact with anyone outside your household. You don't go out except for the limited permitted reasons.
I thought it was pretty clear, you shouldn’t have contact with anyone outside your household. You don’t go out except for the limited permitted reasons.
Yes - I was responding to a point that you hadn't in fact made 🙂 - the claim by HandCock that it was "a police matter". Maybe for her - not for him.
Is that because the hospitals are saving lives or because putting people on vents delays their deaths and flattens the death curve if you like?
Johnson doubles down on testing, 200 000 in another month!
Pretty damning indictment of everything the Government has (and has not) done so far in this.
(Link is correct, it just looks like it's cut off half way through!)
Were being overwhelmed by a tsunami of numbers.
One things for certain. Where deaths are concerned, this government has managed to turn a tragedy into a statistic.
Were being overwhelmed by a tsunami of numbers.
Focus on the important ones.
Medical
In England and Wales in the year up to weekending April 23, an extra 43,600 people have died in 2020 compared with previous years.
Of these deaths, about 10% have been in the under 65s.
Without intervention, the number of excess deaths would have been 3-10 times larger.
The peak of the first epidemic wave has passed, and cases and deaths are halving every 10 days.
Economic
Approximately half of the working population are being paid by the state.
The economic cost of this is about the same as the NHS.
Pretty damning indictment of everything the Government has (and has not) done so far in this.
(Link is correct, it just looks like it’s cut off half way through!)
You can't believe that, it's written by a pro-EU author. He was caught* trying to boil baby robins in the amazing Dominic Cummings back garden while Cummings was at war** saving Britain from this deadly enemy*.
(*not true)
(**not true)
(not true)
(*not true)
The peak of the first epidemic wave has passed, and cases and deaths are halving every 10 days
TiRed, do your stats indicate this halving time may decrease (based on other countries experience)?
Not tired but the halving time will increase if people start moving around more. Which seems likely.
Incidentally my forecasts have held up just perfectly despite him describing them as rubbish a while back. Better than the MRC/Imperial College stuff, let alone the laughable IHME nonsense.
and if we move around a lot more they'll start doubling not halving...
him describing them as rubbish
At no point did I ever say your predictions were rubbish. Nor did I ever accuse you of being a Charlatan. And yes, if people move around more, the half-life will go up. Spain is a notable outlier in that cases and deaths are declining slightly faster than the global population of countries. If this changes, it will help inform on the effects of relaxing lockdown.
On a log scale, the doubling time is given by log(2) x infectious duration/(R-1). Hence R bigger than one, epidemic grows. Five day infection period, 2 day doubling time, gives R = 2.7. The challenge with early models is that the infection period was really not known, hence R was a bit of a guess. Now going down, suppose R = 0.75 then the doubling time is really a halving time of (-) 14 days. Negative means it is halving.
The IHME methods were impressively poor 😉
TiRed,
I am focusing on the important numbers, particularly with regards the issues raised over on the coronomics thread. I'm commenting on the way in which the government throws figures around like they're keeping the score in a game of monkey tennis. The numbers become almost abstract, a statistic replaces a person, a test becomes a target rather than an instrument to combat the virus, hence the Stalin reference. This mob are showing themselves to be the Cultural Marxists they claim to be.
The most significant number around which all issues pivot is the relationship between the number of days that passed before you took action and the number of days you're trapped in a situation of your own making. I prefer to express it in an approximate aphorisim;
'A days delay, a week you'll pay'.
I’m commenting on the way in which the government throws figures around like they’re keeping the score in a game of monkey tennis
People that don't really understand numbers are wont to do this. 123,345 tests? 86,345 tests? Seriously. If we had 97,845 of real tests conducted on the day would that honestly be a failure? Same with deaths. We are forty standard deviations above the mean for weekly deaths. That is is so unbelievably unequivocal as to be staggering. I'm happy if we get a signal of two or three in a clinical study!
‘A days delay, a week you’ll pay’.
That is magic.
If we had 97,845 of real tests conducted on the day would that honestly be a failure?
Indeed not - which is what makes HandCock's compulsive lying on the subject so remarkable.
Cheers TiRed,
Feel free to use it! A good aphorism is like a sound bite with teeth. Theyre great for selling an idea. Effective communication is like advertising. As you say, in the current situation wa have a government who doesn't understand numbers using numbers to explain things ro a public that doesn't understand numbers.
'A days delay, a week you'll pay' isn't just a phrase to be applied retrospectively either, It's just as relevant today as we look for a pathway out of lockdown. I'm off to the shops in central Manchester in a bit, 2 miles from the UK's current epicentre for infections (Broughton) I wonder what percentage of staff and shoppers will be covering their face. 20% ? If I'm lucky..
Loads of gov't adds on telly thanking the NHS and imploring us all to stay indoors. I'd go for a different angle. I'd stick this on TV, social media and billboards everywhere.
'Wear a mask, you silly ....'
I'll get me coat.
I am a little lost on the govs message?apparently after the weekend the stay at home messsge is being removed?
642 people died yesterday (that we recorded) so is that the acceptable run rate? And we sit back and see if it increases?
Oldmanmtb2,
To paraphrase what Sgt. Willard said to Colonel Kurtz....
'I see no message... at all.'
It’ll be this won’t it? Or something along these lines;
I’d like to think we’re learning from countries ahead of us. I don’t think that but I’d like to.
Sadly I think dear old Boris has forgotten his recent experiences and is being chased by his donors who have him by the balls to reopen the economy.
which sadly means a whole load more people are going to get shafted
the interesting bit will be how much people comply and actually go outside again. I suspect it will be less than they hope.
>>If we had 97,845 of real tests conducted on the day would that honestly be a failure?
Indeed not – which is what makes HandCock’s compulsive lying on the subject so remarkable.
Tests down again today to 69K, I guess this is closer to the true capacity. Find it insulting they think they can fool the public with 100K+ tests “in a day” rather than 100k+ tests “per day” as promised. What is worse is I assume they had to stockpile test kits in the weeks before the end of the month to pull this deception off. This means people would have been denied tests that were potentially available earlier just to make the govt look good. Unbelievable.
Unbelievable
Not really
grahamt1980
SubscriberSadly I think dear old Boris has forgotten his recent experiences and is being chased by his donors who have him by the balls to reopen the economy.
The mad thing is, an early reopening will harm the economy, just as the late lockdown has. But then a lot of finance etc isn't the real economy; they can make money from fluctuations from good to bad and bad to good.
Agreed, but this is the production brought to you by the producers of brexit.
financiers it is
Aside but, isn't it about time we just separate the stock market, futures etc from real commodities and companies, and create fake stocks etc that people can speculate on, short, and otherwise piss around with, without devastating the real economy that actually produces stuff?
It would be sensible yes. Sadly I don't see it happening while so many in power have their fingers in the pot
I was sent the following aphorism today from my ITU;
Easing of lockdown doesn't mean it's over, it just means we've got a bed in ITU for you.
Northwind speaks sense.
Find it insulting they think they can fool the public
Stop playing Cummings game… he wants the country chattering about “it’s 70,000 tests, not 100,000”… that is the whole point. Don’t help him.
Sadly I think dear old Boris has forgotten his recent experiences and is being chased by his donors who have him by the balls to reopen the economy.
That was just some media myth in a similar vein to the reforming influence of responsibility of presidency on Trump. Or people reading Boris not liking the term austerity as a portent of the end of Austerity. Like tests and Brexit - not so much achieved more realigned and rebranded.
Still on tests - today he got over excited and promised 200,000 tests. Didn't he previously promise 250,000 around the time of the 100,000 one. Even now it seems today's figure is being downgraded by number 10.
It was said with tongue firmly in cheek, the only thing he would have gotten out of the experience is that in his head he now has more evidence of his divine providence.
Anyway back to coronavirus.Whatdo we think the relaxing will mean for next week?
More outdoor sports and some purple back at work?
Imagine having to resign from a position working for Boris Johnson because you’ve been shagging a married woman, I mean, how unlucky is that?
I must admit I did chuckle at that.
Silly old Ferguson. Why couldn't he keep it in his pants for a couple of months? It has played right into the "Brilliant Brexity British Bulldog Boris Bashes Virus and relaxes lockdown to defy hypocritical so-called experts again - what a guy" narrative.
I bet Cummings practically jizzed himself over this when he found out about it.
In England and Wales in the year up to weekending April 23, an extra 43,600 people have died in 2020 compared with previous years.
What is the deaths under figure? We have an extra 43,600 deaths but there will also have been a reduction - less road traffic fatalities for example. I'm not thinking this is going to be massive but there must be an impact? The Covid figure would be higher than the 43,600.
It's not recorded, although at peak about 45% of those deaths are COVID19 recorded cause. But total mortality is really the only number that matters. It is also the only number that is unequivocal.
Whatdo we think the relaxing will mean for next week?
I'm more concerned if we will even get to Sunday without Boris getting overly excited about VE Day and releasing the hordes through inferred consent. I suppose I should be thankful he's not doing daily briefings at the moment. Tomorrow had the potential to be carnage if he got high on nostalgia and given a full rambling response. At least it's going to be a cold one so it should keep people down.
In my little world. Numbers are definitely picking up. Latest provision run - mostly cars, mostly two people / families, saw my first drive in mountain bikers and parked up walkers. Main road past the house is busy during the day but is definitely on a business traffic cycle - pretty much car free after 19:00 until 07:00.
On changes, I think it's more likely to be more services - the things that are already planned. Council tips and the like, maybe Garden Centres and Football as the big ticket items. Going off the route in - it'll be vague enough to confuse people. Probably the more crucial thing is where the instructions set the piss take point or how far people feel they can bend the rules. If it gets too far towards shake it all about Boris then we're going to be off and running with another round of infection.
Lockdown really is fading fast round here. Big bunch of teenagers having a communal barbecue on a local country park this evening.
And (the shame of it) a group of four mountain bike riders and another highly unlikely to be cohabiting pair out tonight in the local woods and clearly not giving a shit.
Verges near the closed car parks littered with cars. Unlikely to be cohabiting pair of female horse riders out too.
Family (at least three generations cohabiting apparently) sat shoulder to shoulder on a bench whilst the kids are rock climbing.
I'd say there's been a small uptick in non-compliance around here. Not huge. Roads are still very quiet. Definitely a few more folk driving to walk/ride, though I've not seen any groups that didn't genuinely look like a family.
Concern here is that cases/deaths locally are still rising and we don't want to be dragged into an early change just because of where London is on the curve.I expect ScotGov to fight any relaxation for next week but that will just send more confused messages, especially as the Scottish news outlets still feature Westminster rather than Holyrood/PM rather than FM.
The great unwashed dont give a ****.. it appears.
Been out today first time in 9 weeks and it looked like a.normal Wednesday in my part of the world.
That's going to be the big challenge - people have already moved to a new position. If the government gets it wrong, there'll be a big jump. I'd rather get past both Bank Holidays without too many major changes. Being at the more cautious / jaded / suffering from a general degree of cognitive bias when it comes to the nations favourite Labrador end of things I'm feeling it's a bit like Dunkirk on the Bojo war analogy scale.
Been out today first time in 9 weeks and it looked like a.normal Wednesday in my part of the world.
Same. Nervously ventured out to get my sons medication from a pharmacy, I couldnt distinguish today from a pre-covid day.
They've already shown more cases rising and with the governments view of exposure based on nhs coping ability it very much feels like venturing outdoors is playing russian roulette with your health.
There were plenty of non-conforming people out and about on my ride this evening, cars parked in verges, dog walkers congregating, families meeting other families for a stroll in the park etc. The main parks here were busy with sunbathers ans an ice cream van had turned up too!
Lockdown might as well be over.
Lockdown might as well be over.
it never really started?
inkster
MemberOldmanmtb2,
To paraphrase what Sgt. Willard said to Colonel Kurtz….
Captain Willard please...
Sorry for besmirching one of your relatives Willard.
Got to say in my neighbourhood people still pretty well behaved. But I'm expecting things to go mental any day now thanks to lack of messaging from government. Have they made any preparations for easing lockdown at all?
In other news, the Daily Mail online has issued a commemorative 'VE day coin. The accompanying copy initially said celebrating Britain's victory 'over' Europe. Been changed now.
Lincoln steadily becoming more busy.
Branch of KFC re-opened for drive thru/click'n'collect today and, predictably, cars queueing from both directions to get in.
How shit must their lives be that, at the first opportunity, they migrate to KFC for an infusion of grease and reconstituted chicken bits made from mechanically recovered slurry?
Social distancing seemed pretty well observed at my local aldi today
Saw 4 youths hanging out in the woods on my ride today, but that's exactly same as has been since day 1 of lockdown
Everyone else seems to be sticking to it incredibly well, at least round here
Like a circus around rivington complete with bell ends n disposable bbqs...
Apparently the Neil Ferguson model was not very good. Any of the IT bods on here have any comment on this.
https://lockdownsceptics.org/code-review-of-fergusons-model/
despite what Maggie said there is such a thing as society.
Too bloody right. We, as parents, have been showing that one needs to look out for the neighbours since our two were small. We did this to prove the old witch wrong and will continue until either the virus gets me or old age.
I really want a KFC now.
I’d rather get past both Bank Holidays without too many major changes.
Agreed. But I’m fully expecting leaks, quotes from ‘sources’ in the papers, and planned ‘loose lips’ apparently off the cuff comments in interviews to be used to start things off from tomorrow night onwards… people will be nudged out of the current arrangements, not given a clear path out. If it goes wrong then, it won’t be because of top line government advice… it’ll be the public ‘misunderstanding’ and the government can just repeat ‘existing’ messages, rather than having to officially roll back on any ‘end of lock down’ announcements.
Yep haven't felt the urge for a bargain bucket in ages but Frank has now made me hungry...
Just don’t have the fries.