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perchypanther - useful graphic, thanks for putting up
Lots of talk of how few deaths there are in Germany, but it is also worth noting that their recovery rate looks very low as well.
This is looking at worldometer comparing Spain and Germany.
Any insite from those with more knowledge on this?
I watched a report on Eins Extra earlier. They're testing a lot of people so picking up more people with the virus (like South Korea), the population affected is younger and the hospitals are still coping.
I've just found out that my elderly dad, 80+, went for dinner with his neighbour a week ago. Neighbour now has it.
Of course, my sisters and I told my dad he needed to be careful, but of course he ignored us (like he ignores everything we tell him).
Meanwhile, my mum is in a care home which is now locked down. No visitors, without exception. There was a plan for her to come home this week once a live-in carer could be organized, but that now gets delayed a week.
Doubtless he will be trying to tell the various care organizations that he's perfectly fine and there's nothing to worry about.
Either it turns out he is indeed fine, in which case we will all laugh about how funny this was, or it turns out he's got it, in which case it's going to turn into a massive slow-motion car-wreck, one which will doubtless be repeated tens of thousands of times across the country.
Anyway, so long as he can keep popping down to Waitrose for his shopping, I'm sure it will all be fine.
Afaik - Germany is only reporting deaths that are purely from corona infection where most other countries are reporting deaths of all causes where corona has been tested and confirmed.
entirely possible I am wrong though
Another deplorable performance by do-nothing Johnson. We don’t have the facilities to treat this pandemic. No beds no ventilators no masks no gowns not even paracetamol. Dreading the future at this point.
‘If you can’t behave, we’ll get tougher!’
For.
****s.
Sake.
Why wait for there to be a problem? This weekend has proven people can’t be trusted.
Its interesting to read the discrepancies between the UK 4.6% and Germany 0.3% of those dying with corvid19.
At the moment the UK is adding to the corvid19 fatality list anybody who dies with the virus, unlike Germany who are only recording those dying as a result of the virus.
I have seen this said a few times by some brexiter types on twitter, but not read it elsewhere, any source ?
Surely a more likely reason is that they started checking for people with symptoms at airports at the end of Jan and have done far more extensive testing & have the highest number of ventilators & hospital beds per capita in europe, (~15x? greater than UK)
Its interesting to read the discrepancies between the UK 4.6% and Germany 0.3% of those dying with corvid19.
At the moment the UK is adding to the corvid19 fatality list anybody who dies with the virus, unlike Germany who are only recording those dying as a result of the virus.
You can’t really work out CFR until all cases are concluded as many of the infected will go on and die. The deaths that are occurring now are from infections that happened 1-2 weeks ago. If you look at cases in Germany 10 days ago (1567) vs today’s deaths (92) that gives a CFR of 5.9%. Obviously they’ll miss a cases which will tend to bring the death rate down.
What matters is not the case fatality rate (CFR), what matters is the relative rate of growth of deaths vs cases. We can’t know the CFR because the denominator is not measured. From global data, assuming about 10-15% of cases are reported, and a two-week period from infection to eventual death, the global CFR is <1%.
In Germany the rate of growth of deaths is tracking cases (parallel on a semi-log plot). And in Spain, UK and Italy it does not.
In Germany the rate of growth of deaths is tracking cases (parallel on a semi-log plot). And in Spain, UK and Italy it does not.
Can I have that in pictures? Preferably simple ones.
If you look at cases 10 days ago for the UK (590) versus today's deaths (281) that gives a CFR of errrr... .
I think the Germans' own expalanations are more plausible, Mudmuncher. More people tested, younger population infected.
Just be patient, it'll all come out in the statistical wash. For now just keep 1.5m or preferably 2m away from people. That's what I've taken on board from Merkel's speech. A bit more distance makes a giant difference.
They're protecting the most vulnerable people, which means the people slowly spreading the virus should be the ones least affected by it - having a full lockdown could be bad for 2 reasons - 1. if you stop the spread completely what happens in 4/6/8/10 weeks when the lockdown is removed and everybody streams outside, to see friends and family, causing a massive spike in cases? 2. Shutting down the coutry fully for weeks would devastate the economy.
Keep the country on tickover whilst allowing a slow spread through the least affected population. Not shut up shop and cause a massive surge afterwards, and make the economy tank.
Why wait for there to be a problem? This weekend has proven people can’t be trusted.
because psychology. it's been fairly obvious for the past week or so that we were very likely heading for lockdown, if you've more than a few neurons doing the rounds, but you can't just drop it on the population. they've got to get used to the idea it's coming or there'll be mass hysteria.
Shutting down the coutry fully for weeks would devastate the economy.
Wuhan shut down everything and is coming back to life, that's the model to follow. Italy is the model to avoid - a slow progressive chaotic shutdown with no end in sight.
In a cruel twist of fate someone I know who wants to use the services of dignitas but obviously can't travel at present & might miss the window of opportunity before becoming too disabled, the worst possible outcome 😢
If you look at cases 10 days ago for the UK (590) versus today’s deaths (281) that gives a CFR of errrr… .
I think the Germans’ own expalanations are more plausible, Mudmuncher. More people tested, younger population infected.
Just be patient, it’ll all come out in the statistical wash. For now just keep 1.5m or preferably 2m away from people. That’s what I’ve taken on board from Merkel’s speech. A bit more distance makes a giant difference.
Yes, I think the discrepancy is down to the more extensive testing in Germany. We aren’t testing suspect cases unless they are serious enough to end up in hospital so it’s meaningless to compare the CFRs between countries also there is the lag in death from infection and missing infections.
causing a massive spike in cases?
Looking at one of the BBC graphics last week that seemed to be the intention they were suggesting. Shut down - let the cases fall and then open up again. Allow the cases to run to threshold and drop back. I'm not a modeller or stats person but it would seem a high risk approach. All they have to do is miss judge something as simple as people getting blasé about biosecurity because they've been at home for weeks or rushing around like lunatics because the pressures off and they need a release. Suddenly you've got higher infection rates and or more serious cases of injury. There again I suppose they will also be thinking about the number of medical emergencies created by keeping people in protracted quarantine.
I would be interested in knowing the relative number of infections caused by one big peak and multiple close to threshold runs over a longer period.
Looking at one of the BBC graphics last week that seemed to be the intention they were suggesting. Shut down – let the cases fall and then open up again. Allow the cases to run to threshold and drop back.
Yes, that was what the government were putting about last week… but it was dangerous nonsense based on OTHER viruses, not the science (known and still under investigation) from around the world about THIS virus. It’s since been officially dropped, but the smell of it is still hanging around and polluting the good efforts since by the government to do what really needs doing.
Keep the country on tickover whilst allowing a slow spread through the least affected population.
No, no, no. This was the nonsense from before government changed policy. “Allowing spread” is not what we should be doing, there is no good science behind it. People will die unnecessarily. Everything must be done to stop the spread, and buy time for the science and medical community to find a safe way out of this.
https://twitter.com/isabelhardman/status/1241783995777589248?s=21
https://twitter.com/isabelhardman/status/1241784831585013760?s=21
Seems like it's just another brexie conspiracy theory
https://twitter.com/philipoltermann/status/1241715885339021315?s=19
I went to empty the organic bin into the compost. In a town of 150 000 people it is absolutely silent, not a sound apart form one timid bird singing. Not a car to be heard, not a human voice, nothing, silence.
good efforts since by the government to do what really needs doing.
Just passing comment, the graphic was post revised approach. Boris, as ever, needs to put more thought into phrasing and less into word play.
What matters is not the case fatality rate (CFR), what matters is the relative rate of growth of deaths vs cases. We can’t know the CFR because the denominator is not measured. From global data, assuming about 10-15% of cases are reported, and a two-week period from infection to eventual death, the global CFR is <1%.
In Germany the rate of growth of deaths is tracking cases (parallel on a semi-log plot). And in Spain, UK and Italy it does not.
@Tired - genuinely interested what you think the true fatality rate is from this and the level of asymptomatic/mild infection that is missed.
From listening to the CMO/CSO I get the feeling they believe there is a very large number of undetected cases in the China data that I guess they made based their decisions on. This would imply the Infection fatality rate is way lower than the CFR and the infectiousness R0 is way higher. I guess that could have driven the herd immunity strategy as the death rate would be much lower than the data suggests and the infectiousness would be higher making containment more difficult.
My concern is the WHO said they didn’t find evidence of widespread asymptomatic transmission/ missed infections and surely if there was a lot of asymptomatic transmission their contract tracing would have found it, or they wouldn’t have been able to contain it.
If there isn’t a lot of missed infections then this virus may be more dangerous than they believe. If this is the case we might be in a situation in a few months when they are expecting say 40-50% of the population to be infected based on the deaths/hospital admissions and the R0 to drop and new cases reduce as immunity builds, however if they got it wrong and only 4-5% are infected at that point then there will still be a lot more people that need to die/get infected before we have immunity.
what matters is the relative rate of growth of deaths vs cases
You also have to bear in mind that UK testing capcity is increasing and supposedly is being used to capacity. If so, cases may go up simply due to more testing - for example if mildly symptomatic NHS staff are tested, which hasn't been happening reliably up to now
The Big Boris Weekend - will it produce a big rural spike or will the latest measures just mean it results in more countrywide mixing. One for a couple of weeks? Once the figures are in.
Didn't the Deputy Chief Medical Officer state that people shouldn't make comparisons with the likes of Italy? But was then rather reluctant to show any workings she may have to back that assertion up?
If you look at the +14 day comparison vs Italy then you would need a damned good reason and a lot of other objective stats to say why that is not a valid comparison.
I am not trying to be like a character from Dad's Army, but I am getting more and more concerned that we are being bullshitted here. It doesn't take 'R' to be out by much and the mortality to be out by much to end up a bloody long way out on any estimations.
Surely the best thing to do is be ahead of Italy and Spain on the preventative measures whilst we are still behind them on the infection curve(?)
First death reported today from my local hospital in Abergavenny. 5 more in Newport and 1 in Merthyr.
So cross now, arrgh bloody parents FFS
I’ll explain more tmrw when I’ve calmed down😡🤬😡🤬
BoardinBob
SubscriberIan Blackford
✔
@Ianblackford_MPI have been contacted by the Nevis Range Centre in Fort William who tell me that they have had to turn away around 30 camper vans, which had travelled from various parts of the UK, who were intending to use their car park as a refuge.
The comments. **** me, the comments.
The Boris Bounce is going to take on a very different meaning, isn't it?
As usual, Janey Godley nails it
edit 15 minutes too late!
kimbers
SubscriberI have seen this said a few times by some brexiter types on twitter, but not read it elsewhere, any source ?
As one of the Brexit Loony thread regulars it's only expected you would try to turn this into Brexit related thread to spew your nonsensical and bitter views/opinions.
It's clear you and the other Brexit thread loons have moved over to this thread, and as a result this thread too is getting too daft to read anymore .. so I'm out; you loonies can have another echo chamber to scare each other; enjoy🤪
Local pub landlady currently in hospital on a ventilator with confirmed Coronavirus.
Good friends of my in laws, a recently retired GP and his wife who’s a nurse are both self isolating with symptoms, they were in the pub for a ‘last’ meal last weekend...
As one of the Brexit Loony thread regulars
I don’t really recall tom posting that much in your favourite trolling thread. As usual, you’ve shot, and sent it straight into row z. You really must try harder, and while it undoubtedly wouldn’t help, it might make you feel better.
you loonies
No, come back Moo!
Spain is extending its lockdown by another 15 days . . . .
I asked you politely for a source on the previous page, Mooman, and gave you a polite reply based on watching Eins Extra.
In a population of 80 or so million Germans about 2800 die every day with generally more at this time of year. They aren't systematically testing every corpse when there's a blindily obvious reason other than CV19 that the person has died, but they are including all people who have tested positive for CV19 and could conceivably have died from the virus. And testing some corpses too according to that tweet up there. That is pragmatic and sensible.
As one of the Brexit Loony thread regulars it’s only expected you would try to turn this into Brexit related thread to spew your nonsensical and bitter views/opinions.
It’s clear you and the other Brexit thread loons have moved over to this thread, and as a result this thread too is getting too daft to read anymore .. so I’m out; you loonies can have another echo chamber to scare each other; enjoy🤪
So no actual source for your claim ???
Ironic that you flounce out on that note after spreading unsubstantiated conspiracy theories !
& tbf youd been quite sensible in this thread so far
In layman’s terms
Today you have 100 cases and 10 deaths. Next week you have 300 cases and 30 deaths. The week after you have 900 cases and 90 deaths. The ratio of deaths to cases is always 10%, and they both triple every week.
Suppose in the U.K. today you have 100 cases and 1 death. Next week you have 300 cases and 4 deaths. The week after you have 900 cases and 16 deaths. The ratio of deaths to cases is increasing week on week. Cases are tripling but deaths are quadrupling.
Now the absolute ratio is not known because we don’t know the total number of cases in U.K. or Germany. In the above case one is 10% and the other 1%. And deaths may be counted differently in each county. What matters is that deaths and cases are counted CONSISTENTLY in each country. Trends where deaths decouple from cases are concerning to me.
Note these numbers are illustrative only.
Edit and scaredypants: If we increase screening and find more cases, there will be a brief jump in cases (the ratio of deaths will fall) but then settle down to the same exponential growth rate as before but then instead of 10% each week it might be 5%.
UK are counting all deaths with cv19 in their system regardless of cause of death
Germany are only counting deaths where it's the cv19 that did the killing.
That will account for most of your variance I would expect.
Are Germany doing more testing that us as we appear to be just self diagnosing at the moment.
That will account for most of your variance I would expect.
It doesn’t. Variability in growth rate is 33%. Variability in death rate is 66%. That’s from 64 cases.