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Do you have access to the corrected data sets ?
Germany are only counting deaths where it’s the cv19 that did the killing.
That is false according to the Germans, Trailrat. Could you provide a source please because what I've heard coincides perfectly with the tweet from the Koch institute which Kimbers has already linked halfway down this page edit: now the previous page.
UK are counting all deaths with cv19 in their system regardless of cause of death
Germany are only counting deaths where it’s the cv19 that did the killing
do you have a source for that? because thats not what the koch institute (German federal public health institute) say they do
I guess quite a few of us have gone down the rabbit hole of neighbourhood WhatsApp groups? No? You haven’t? Lucky you!
Just checked in the 127 notifications of people chatting shit and came across this gem...
“What a lovely thing to do. We are in Cornwall until Tuesday night.
Love Debbie and Brian x”
These two, while not in their seventies are certainly getting on and well into their sixties. Go Brits. Stick it to the virus!!
The more I think about the European numbers, the more I think the Chinese numbers don’t make any sense whatsoever.
What's your problem with the Chinese numbers, Baboonz?
I only have the ecdc data from the public domain and updates daily. But sadly in log space, assumptions become robust because proportions become additive. If you find 5% of true cases, that’s just a change in intercept. If you report only 20% of deaths due to virus as Covid deaths, same thing. It’s not the intercept that gives the information, because the denominators are currently unknown. It is the slopes and their relationship. Hence one has focussed on the slopes.
how are people like Brendan O'neail paid to spout this guff?
https://twitter.com/CharlesTannock/status/1241629153553760256
Hence one has focussed on the slopes.
Which are bad right?
Repost from a work colleague of my aunts makes for a tough read.
"I’m a consultant anaesthetist working in Frimley Park Hospital and this week all anaesthetists are being re-roled as intensive care doctors. We will be tasked with putting the sickest patients under anaesthetic and onto ventilators/life support machines. Each patient will require 10 days+ on a ventilator then may need a temporary tracheostomy to get them off the ventilator.
The intensive care unit is already full of COVID-19 patients on ventilators (12) with more requiring ventilation every day. My hospital usually has 4-10 patients on ventilators and is planning and EXPECTING 80 patients to require ventilation.
It seems the public health message is not getting through. Let me be clear. A lot of people are going to die. They will mainly be 70 years plus but be in no doubt, 30-40 year olds will die too.
Pubs have been busy, offices open, social events happening, kids parties etc. It all needs to stop. Infected people shed virus and it must be everywhere by now. It is your social responsibility to engage in social distancing. Actions NOW can prevent further disease transmission, ICU admissions and deaths in 10-20 days.
Two of my anaesthetic/ICU colleagues in other hospitals are off work due to being infected (doing ok). As health care workers, we are now EXPECTING to catch it despite PPE. This virus has been transmitted around the globe unchecked and will not stop until it has no where to go - social distancing/isolation Or patient death.
Here ends my public health message.
On a more personal level, my son turned three years old last week and is six weeks into a three year chemotherapy program for lymphoma. This virus is a big threat to his life and as I am going to be exposed this week doing my job, I can no longer live at home.
I have had to make the difficult choice: to do my job and save lives of people I don’t know, or to be with my son whilst he battles cancer. Alfie hopefully will survive his cancer and chemo, but many people will die from flu. My heart is broken making this decision, but I choose to save the lives of strangers and leave him in the care of my beautiful wife and family.
Later this week I’ll be moving into a motor home and will not be able to take any further part in his care for the next 6 months.
Bottom line. SOCIALLY ISOLATE or people die in two weeks".
"do you have a source for that? because thats not what the koch institute (German federal public health institute) say they do"
Was part of a discussion on the radio earlier this afternoon .
Cannot find ref to it online at all.
Most folk saying the discrepancy is down to the age of the infected. Germany has a high % of young people infected currently. Blamed on their ski holidays.
Was part of a discussion on the radio earlier this afternoon .
Which radio station? I've been following on Eins Extra which had footage from the Koch Institute earlier.
There's plenty on line, in English too. This is out of date as Mme Merkel changed the measures in a speech earlier.
When Sturgeon saw this her response?
I would *never* use language like this, obvs 😉 - but we could all do with a smile just now. And if humour helps get the message across...
WWSTWD.
As a family of 4 ( child aged 8 and a baby 5months) we are on observing social distancing guidelines. I have approached my boss/the owner a couple of times regarding WFH - I work on the phone and email so no real reason why I can’t, it’s a very small company- five employees.
He obviously isn’t keen on the idea and suggests we just spread out a bit. However, I am concerned about his attitude towards the virus, is he’s always playing down the seriousness of it, a lot of whataboutery on FB -it only affects the oldies etc.
He is currently complaining of a temp and tiredness but claims this is purely down to his infected bawbag following a vasectomy. A co-worker has been given time off due to a tight chest - which is also “unrelated” to C19.
Currently weighing up whether to straight up say I’m not coming in whether you like it or not - not pay me, whatever or hold it out ‘til the likely coming lock-down.
So yeah WWSTWD ?
WFH. don't give him a choice. quote government policy at him. Go no where near the plague rat!
With regard to the German death rate. IIRC I saw a quote from someone in the german government stating that when the dust settles he expects the rates to be similar. I think most of the difference with be accounting differences.
WWSTWD?
look after your family.
When Sturgeon saw this her response?
LOL - Just woken up Teej? I posted this 2 hours ago 🙂
U.K. is one week behind Spain and two weeks behind Italy. We should be doing now what they are doing now not what they were doing a week ago.
@spectablis
Just say that if he ****s you over you will let the whole world know on social media.
Does anyone think, that when this is all looked back upon, that the ‘its only affecting the old and vulnerable’ message at the start is what will ultimately be blamed for the lack of cooperation (at least in the beginning) leading to such high death rates? I have to say, I wasn’t all that worried 10 days ago, but as a 35 year old diabetic, am not leaving the house lest it’s for medical reasons until we get to where China is now.
Thought this might raise a smile...
Wuhan is a city with 11 million people. It took them a while to identify that the pneumonia’s were not pneumonia.
Look at its population density in this picture(2015)
https://www.researchgate.net/figure/The-street-level-population-density-of-the-central-area-of-Wuhan-City-in-2015_fig2_334175751
Putting my tin foil hat on, China did not tell the rest of the world how bad it was early enough, and they are now doctoring he numbers to cover it up.
Sorry Scotroutes - not following every post here. Too slow, too old, too technically illiterate 😉
Hmm… the message coming out of China was clear, early enough for everyone else to act accordingly… it was other countries that shrugged off the warning for too long.
Maybe an indication of how serious this is... McDonald's are closing all their branches in UK & Ireland by end of day tomorrow.
https://twitter.com/McDonaldsUK/status/1241824519280566274?s=09
Although I'm now waiting for another run on the supermarkets - no more burgers and chips in the frozen section by Tuesday!
Just spotted this headline:
‘ Harvey Weinstein Tests Positive For Coronavirus In NY State Prison; Convicted Producer In Isolation’
One might hope that his isolation becomes an extended one, at least. I won’t wish any more than that.
And the UK still ignoring that message.
I need to go to work tomorrow and I would rather stay home.
why did mcdonalds not shut on friday?
Takeaways innit
why did mcdonalds not shut on friday?
Restuarants/cafes are still allowed to do takeaway. McDonalds do takeaway/drivethru.
It's telling that of the 14 doctors that have died treating this disease in Italy, all except one were over 60 years old, and he was in his late 50s.
Ed .- Skype repoerter from Berlin repeated exactly that ( the demographic thing ,plus returning skiers ) on the BBC World news at 9pm this evening Should be on iPlaya . Also that Germany was not including positives for C-19 if the patient died of a heart attack , but PM showed C-19 in system .If I translated it correctly, was a crappy line and heavy accent
Its Ok my Mums church are all going shopping for the oldies, till I explained it was yet another pair of hands touching every item and probably inviting said person into your home for tea and biscuits following delivery . No clue on touch transmision posibilities .
Was the Sturgeon wearing false eye lashes on the daily brief today? Gotta look great whilst delivering shite news
This is a pretty terrifying insight into what the virus does and the impact on the body. Obviously at the extreme end of the scale but still scares me
Spain to extend lockdown til 11th April. I'd imagine they'll be cracking down on transgressions. My mate got fined today for going to a shop 'too far from home'.
People getting slapped with fines for only buying beer. A pensioner was fined for chasing Pokémon in Madrid. A bloke airlifted off a Pyrenee just hours after lockdown started is in trouble, unless he dies of shame first.
hing ,plus returning skiers ) on the BBC World news at 9pm this evening Should be on iPlaya . Also that Germany was not including positives for C-19 if the patient died of a heart attack , but PM showed C-19 in system
not whats being said here, what its saying is that they dont routinely test for COVID in PM, but theres no surge in non-corona deaths either, so they are probably catching them all & they are testing those suspected petty heavily
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/22/germany-low-coronavirus-mortality-rate-puzzles-experts
Putting my tin foil hat on, China did not tell the rest of the world how bad it was early enough, and they are now doctoring he numbers to cover it up.
China has more death than the announced death as far as we are concerned in the far east. We don't believe China's published numbers as simple as that.
If you compare that to the Italian number then China's number does not make sense. Bear in mind that in Chinese household there are normally 3 generations living together which is a bit like in Italy.
Social media in the far east just mentioned today that in fact things were already happening in early October and many were already told about virus outbreak.
Therefore, China has been hiding the actual death number or at least they did not know the cause of the early death.
I read somewhere that pangolin sales suddenly stopped in October, I just can’t find the source.
BB - yes, saw that and posted it up there somewhere for Daz to use in 'persuading' his teen daughter that she really shouldn't be out with her mates.
It's scary, possibly a little fictionalised but makes the point like a blunt instrument to the head.
This photo gave me the wobbles:
https://twitter.com/darreneuronews/status/1241856707594248192?s=21
Not the kind of environment any of us picture ourselves being treated in when at our most vulnerable.
It’s like a Hipgnosis album cover.
If anyone believes the Chinese numbers I've got a lovely bridge for sale.
The only reason this has spread so far and so quickly is mainly on the backs of Chinese tourists and unfortunately the virus surge happening over the Chinese New Year celebrations, one of the biggest annual human mass migrations where people visit family in China then go back to wherever they are living (late Jan/early Feb).
It took a general strike by all our medical staff and a small bombing campaign to get the HK government, subservient to the CCP, to not close the border but at least put restrictions in place.
The only reason this has spread so far and so quickly is mainly on the backs of Chinese tourists
Most of the entry points to Europe and USA seem to have been attributed to people who had been out working in China, not due to tourism. It’s then spread within Europe and the USA where China has no jurisdiction (an awful lot of that was indeed tourism). But, carry on blaming China if it makes you feel better.
trump clearly blames China - check his and pompeo's terminology; conditioning their base.
And then we have this prize chump
https://thehill.com/homenews/house/488917-peter-king-china-must-face-serious-consequences-for-indefensible-behavior-at
Couple of weeks ago somewhere up there ^^^ I asked how long it would take before the blame game started and reparations demands started; now we have the answer.
When will someone tell trump that Spanish Flu should be, more accurately, described as US flu; it originated in the US and is without doubt the biggest bigliest virus ever and it's one of the greatest ever exports from the US.
trump clearly blames China
We in Asia and S.E.Asia also attribute the virus to China. No conspiracy. We have no trade war etc with China.
Remember SARS? Also originated from China via the consumption of wildlife.
Google RaTG13 (some sort of Bat virus) as this is 96% similar to Covid-19 and the bats are sold in Wuhan market "secretly". Yes, some might say that there are other nations that also consume bats but did not develop into Covid-19 but in my opinion it is just a matter of time before other kind of virus mutate. Note that there are some viruses in Indonesia that are killing livestocks but not reported. However, social media has reported that people frequently notice livestocks death that is not commonly seen. Most news are not reported in the west because they are all reported in the local dialects or languages. Also the consumption of pangolin to see the virus they carry.
In my view the moment the virus mutates to "join force" with other viruses then we will see more pandemic and perhaps even more lethal. All it takes is for a host that has all the viruses (but the person not affected) to help the mutation.
If you understand the regional languages used by social media then you will be able to see all the reasoning.
Many in S.E.Asia are the descendants of China so we know how they talk or act. We see them coming.
Finally, China calling themselves as a "developed nation" and with all the wealth they have generated continues to turns a blind eye on the consumption of wildlife as if it is the birth right, until now.