The number of new cases in China seems to have dropped to a minimal level. I understand that they achieved that via tight controls on movement and mixing. What I don't understand is how it doesn't flare up again in other provinces where there have not been such tight restrictions. If the figures are to be believed the overall percentage of the population infected is pretty low. They must be vulnerable now to another outbreak or peak?
I think people are shouting- or calmly criticising- because we’ve waited til the day hospitals start overflowing before going into a “managed shutdown”. We had an advantage here that Italy would have killed for and it’s been largely pissed away. And even now that it’s finally happening, it’s being done as counterproductively as possible- “pubs are closed… from tomorrow! Get the beers in!”.
Another +1
We've had the warnings from other countries, and have now witnessed the horrific scenes in Itlay, yet as a nation, we're not heeding their advice. Well, we might be now, finally - but could well be far too late to prevent the same thing happening in the Uk. I very much hope that I am wrong.
What I don’t understand is how it doesn’t flare up again in other provinces where there have not been such tight restrictions.
Geographically restricted in China. It took lots of testing and heavy restriction of people known to have been near people who have tested positive. It doesn’t spread on its own by magic. People spread it. Don’t let people leave areas with it, and it doesn’t get into other areas.
Frankly I’m scared, not for me but my wife is about to start next round of cancer treatment. We’ll keep it tight but it’s other people’s casual approach to this that does my head in. That and my old man who is 90 and has a history of chest infections. Sarcastic bugger was in top form when I spoke to him tonight but I fear for him. At least both my parents are being sensible about this but still .........
Education and awareness a blessing and a curse...
Ignorance and uncaring a blessing and a curse...
Two sides of the same coin...
Brexit/Corona virus/racism same shit, same split...
A different perspective on things.
https://www.independentthinking.co.uk/blog/posts/2020/march/watching-the-world/
Frankly I’m scared,
Hang in there, everyone one is to some degree, the apparently oblivious might still be just processing.
A different perspective on things.
Nature is not intelligent. It is totally amoral though. Ruthless. Uncaring. Unfair. Unreasonable. Unpredictable. Surprising. Adaptive. Opportunistic. Misunderstood. Complex. Humbling. Awe inspiring.
Nature is not intelligent
Sorry, but you tripped on the first hurdle.
Incidentally, anyone else thinking that while the business rate holiday is generally a great idea, supermarkets don't need it? Their demand might fall with spending power, and they might take some losses from supply interruption, but they're doing pretty well at the moment...
Making the emergency measures universal is quicker and easier. Can always revise how rates work later to claw back from certain businesses (supermarkets chains perhaps). Can be made less prone to abuse and loop holes if you do it later at leisure, rather than at speed now.
....and when the market settles as people work through their stockpiles, supermarkets will become less busy.
Over a 12 month period neither their sales nor profits will have grown excessively.
In addition, they have not attempted to maximise profits through price increases.
Would you want to work in their supply chain or be 'customer' facing? No, me neither.
What about their employees' enforced proximity to potential virus carriers
So, no, don't agree with your suggestion that supermarkets don't need biz rate holiday.
Apologies if already posted:
Those “carrying on as normal” need to watch the clip, and listen to the doctor at the end. Don’t do this to our medical staff and the people you live amongst. Please.
Good night. Sleep well.
frankconway
SubscriberOver a 12 month period neither their sales nor profits will have grown excessively.
Would you want to work in their supply chain or be ‘customer’ facing? No, me neither.
What about their employees’ enforced proximity to potential virus carriers
It doesn't take a rise in sales or profits to mean they don't need a holiday- they just need to be shielded from the losses that so many other businesses will take, which they are.
The other 2 things are ways that their staff are negatively impacted- but what has that to do with business rates? It won't help the staff.
At the end of the day this will be a bit of extra profit for them.
Over 12 months - possibly longer - the panic buying will have negligible effect on revenue and profit forecasts.
In fact, the imminent economic downturn will probably depress both.
They are not shielded; current circumstances mean they're hot stocks - but not for long.
So, they are no more or less deserving of a biz rates holiday than any other business.
A biz rates holiday *may* increase job security; if it does, great.
The other 2 points I made were to broaden the discussion.
Coronavirus seems to me to be extremely intelligent. Precocious even.
Interesting article that Matt
Mods: you know when the penny finally drops for bikebouy and he slinks off for a bit then comes back with a new username pretending he wasn't a denier? Can we have a special "formerly known as bikebouy" flair for whoever he comes back as? Just so we know.
That’s quite sobering Kelvin.
Morning folks, todays random collection of statements.
Guess most people are well and truly oh we're going to go through the mill stage. Life is life - channeling my inner May vagueness - it's generally just going to go on in a more intense and restricted way against the backdrop of a pandemic. It's easy to get really wound up about the way things are how it may or may not be happening - just note it down for later. There are times when we'll all be shouty, frustrated, happy, sad, lonely, comforted, productive, creative...
It'll all come out in the wash but right now there's only one game in town - protect people. It's kind of like Brexit - one side only had to do one thing but the other lots. It's easier just to deal with the one thing.
Ok, maybe two things - protect people and be nice to the mods. They have lives as well. Or maybe that's just one thing and comes under protect people.
That's me vaguely paying attention in the rabbit hole - I'm off to experience the reality of shopping. Hope there's milk, it'll be really bad if there's no milky tea.
Mrs Pondo wants to get out on the bikes today - I'm conflicted as to whether we should...
Milky tea? Bleurgh - just the thought makes me sad. 🙁
It’s really odd. People get Zombies they don’t seem to get virus and viral transmission.
I’d er sorta explained this to my parents and the fact that if they were infected that they’d probably end up on a trolley in a corridor and not on the shiney beepy stuff you see on the telly and that no one would be popping in with flowers.
They’re happily isolating as they realise this is best for them,social distancing buys time and time is the thing you can’t buy when you need.
Mrs Pondo wants to get out on the bikes today – I’m conflicted as to whether we should
Current advice is go for it (even if you're isolating), but keep your distance.
https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/coronavirus-covid-19/self-isolation-advice/
You can use your garden, if you have one. You can also leave the house to exercise – but stay at least 2 metres away from other people.
Obviously there's going for a leisurely ride and there's going all Josh Bender. The official advice contradicts the incredibly self confident CV experts on here, and the advice in other countries. But it seems sensible if you're not a dick.
Interesting YT video about vitamin D and respiratory disease:
I think this means I should be riding my bike more.
The official advice contradicts the incredibly self confident CV experts on here, and the advice in other countries. But it seems sensible if you’re not a dick.
The other countries are worried about cycling accidents tbh, nows not the time to be OTB’ing to hospital.
An overall level of fitness is one of the best things you can do to help yourself.(expert not me)
Increasing your obesity self isolating isn’t gonna be a good thing.
According to BrexitCast the Infection Mortality Rate is fairly certain now: 0.5pc-1pc overall.
0.01 pc for under 20s
8pc for over 80s.
Hospitalization rate for over 80s 44pc! 8pc overall.
Obvs if there are a large number of asymptomatic people as suggested by the 'Italian Town' report those numbers will be grossly over estimating.
Mods: you know when the penny finally drops for bikebouy and he slinks off for a bit then comes back with a new username pretending he wasn’t a denier? Can we have a special “formerly known as bikebouy” flair for whoever he comes back as? Just so we know.
I'm not a denier, and I'm still here with the same login.
I simply stated people were not following guidelines, but yeah go ahead and keep kicking.
I'm as affected as everybody else is, and I don't agree with the measures that are in place.
So what?
Different opinion to yours is wrong?
Sounds like Brexit all over again.
I await your witty retort.
I don't think they are worried about cycling accidents, because it's not an inherently dangerous activity for most people doing normal recreational cycling. They're doing it because it's easier (in the short term) to have a very simple message.
The UK approach is different but may actually be more sensible. If the lockdown was expected for 2 weeks then yes telling everyone to stay in may be sensible. This is going to be a long haul, so the harm caused by stopping all outdoor exercise may start to outweigh the benefits.
It's not a black and white issue. Until the official advice changes I'll do some gentle rides with kids and go running. No issues keeping 2m apart where we live.
Not sure if this has been posted yet. Bill gates from 2015
Milky tea? Bleurgh – just the thought makes me sad. 🙁
It's more strong but mooing.
Felt the post was getting close to it's abstract thoughts limit so went milky tea.
For a bit of balance.
BBC News
I hope somebody is taking a more holistic view of what’s happening.
Stumpyjon, this article doesn't appear to be based on any evidence at all. The journalist is playing some kind of Devil's advocate which is pretty irresponsible. There is no evidence the deaths anywhere "would have happened anyway" unless you believe since we're all going to die in the end you can say well nothing matters. The point in this is that the deaths attributable to Covid-19 will generally be both extra and very much more than the NHS can cope with per unit time. It's beyond bizarre to state the NHS has over-egged it when 500 people are dying from Covid alone per day in Lombardy. London is following the exact curve of Lombardy if not slightly higher and restrictions on movement are much weaker. Can't believe this article made it through the editorial process in the BBC although one wonders if there's a politician behind it?
For people who like facts and detail the SAGE (Scientific Advisory Group) is here:
This is the stuff that's informing the decisions getting made, updated in (more or less) real time.
Useful 1 page Summary here:
Date looks a little old to me, but that's what 'they' are working from.
Frankly I’m scared, not for me but my wife is about to start next round of cancer treatment. We’ll keep it tight but it’s other people’s casual approach to this that does my head in.
Same here but for my dad, sadly he is also taking the casual approach to social distancing etc. The hospital have already cancelled his last treatment as he was deemed too ill to proceed but instead of taking care of himself he's blaming everyone else and just carrying on as normal. I know he went to the pub last night by pictures on facebook and it was rammed with him in close proximity to others, part of me wants to tell him it's his own stupid fault if he gets it but I also definitely don't want him to get it as it'll take him and most likely my mum too. They've both gone to the supermarket this morning to take advantage of the OAP early opening, they have a decent amount of food at home and the family friend they're living with is more than happy to get shopping for them. Sometimes you can't save people from themselves.
There is no evidence the deaths anywhere “would have happened anyway” unless you believe since we’re all going to die in the end you can say well nothing matters.
Language matters. I've thought for a while that when we talk about 'saving lives' that is creating a false impression. If we just said 'delaying deaths' instead, it would promote a far healthier relationship with this whole dying thing.
There is ample evidence that the death of someone over 80 is far more likely than the death of someone in their 20s, even if 'would have happened anyway: might be a bit of an exaggeration. Certainly if you delay the death of an 83 year old, you will delay it for far fewer years than if you delay the death of a 20 year old.
Not sure if this has been posted yet. Bill gates from 2015
Several times it’s not groundbreaking it’s been known for decades the effects a virus will have.
The point in this is that the deaths attributable to Covid-19 will generally be both extra
Some will, some won't. It seems perfectly reasonable to assume the the ven diagram of people who have die from CV and who would have died from something has some overlap. We just don't know how much.
CV kills 8pc over over 80s. The idea that the 8pc who die from CV would all have lived to 1st Jan 2021 is a bit fanciful.
Patrick Vallance: "It was a point conceded by Sir Patrick at a press conference on Thursday when he said there would be "some overlap" between coronavirus deaths and expected deaths - he just did not know how much of an overlap."
(I agree the word 'conceded' is mental - it's just a statement of fact.)
According to the article comparing the CV numbers to flu numbers is a bit apples and oranges:
The flu comparison
In contrast, the figure he gave for flu deaths to MPs - 8,000 - is different. It is actually the number of deaths over and above what you would expect to happen in any given year.Many more die with flu, but the figure gives you an indication of how many more die because of flu, whereas the 20,000, 250,000 and 500,000 figures for coronavirus are simply the number of deaths linked to coronavirus.
Frankly, the fact you chose to use the term 'generally' means you've already get this.
Couldn't agree more that the BBC article linked above is irresponsible - it evens lists the stats that the "do nothing" model is half a million deaths and the previous measures is quarter of a million. So if we all abide by the rules the mortality rate won't be much more than usual - isn't that an amazing result that justifies the means? Even then the evidence coming from Lombardy doesn't seem to reflect that as a possible outcome. Nevertheless I expect this will be seized upon by Dunkirk spirit gammons to justify carry on doing whatever the **** they like
@bikebuoy - when you say
"So what?
Different opinion to yours is wrong?"
Its not that you have a different opinion, it's that as you and your kind think you know better than nearly every expert out there you will cause more people to die. You have expressed on numerous occasions that you're either too dense or too arrogant and entitled to grasp that. You're a clown.
What is not getting across to people but is fundamental is that although the mortality rates in older people are much higher, younger people are still needing ICU to survive. What you need to understand is when ICU gets overwhelmed younger much fitter patients will die. The problem with the curve in Italy is it's still at a relatively early point in terms of those who are fitter as they are more likely to be critically ill but being sustained. I'm not sure how else to tell you this but every single one of us is at risk of dying if our ICUs get overwhelmed which is beginning to happen in London. They have stopped putting >65s into ICU in Lombardy now. That's not over 80. That's our mothers and fathers who were otherwise relatively well. I'm not sure what else to say on the matter as we will all be accused of over-egging it until people become personally affected.
I’ve been producing such graphs and analyses with projection for the past week using daily data. It is now automated and I run it daily. Sadly the plots are not good reading.
Davous pleas don’t lower the thread with personal insults. Thanks.
So if we all abide by the rules the mortality rate won’t be much more than usual – isn’t that an amazing result that justifies the means?
That's your conclusion, not the article's conclusion.
...and you're wrong. There will be *some* overlap we don't know how much so you can't conclude from that article that the mortality rate won't be much more than usual.
It is getting very serious now but all we can do is observe the advice and - like us yesterday - convince ourselves in laws to stay indoors.
The episode has highlighted to me like a smack in the face how selfish people have become. To illustrate that further, my wife had cause to go to a chemist last night - on her own, in the car. One of the high streets three pubs was open, rammed to the rafters, steamed windows and people spilling onto the street. What selfishness of people to exaggerate a risk such as this for a selfish last hurrah, and how irresponsible of the landlord.
Look after yourselves. Don’t panic, stay indoors.
bikebouy:
I’m not a denier
Also bikebouy:
#bitofflu
#madpanicensues
people seem to be thinking “yeah, so it’s only a few old folk that will die from it”” as the reality of the news gets broadcast.
And TBH that argument is valid point to answer.
Mass over reaction IMO.
people without symptoms are just getting on with life. And rightly too.
the facts as we see them do not warrant such measures we’ve seen this Govt push on it’s populace
I don’t agree with the measures that are in place
What selfishness of people to exaggerate a risk such as this for a selfish last hurrah, and how irresponsible of the landlord Government.
FTFY